Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Income
Practical Nominal
Fixed Income
I.
II.
III.
I.
Conventions
Conventions
Base Exact/Exact
Numerator : Period defined as exact number of days ( varies between
28 to 31)
formula : numerator = exact numbers of days
Denominator :365 or 366 if bissextile
Conventions
Conventions
Payment Convention
If the payment date comes on non-working day, few rules
apply
Convention Previous Business Day :
o Payment on the previous working day
Yield curve
Explanations :
For a given maturity and a given credit risk, there is a given
interest rate.
There are many yield curves according to a country, a currency
and of the credit risk
Bonds
Market curves
Directly defined by the market quotes of financial instruments
(swaps, bonds).
Ex: Government Bonds
Implied curves
Indirectly defined by the market quotes of financial instruments
(swaps, bonds).
Ex: Forward, zero-coupon bond
rate
maturity
rate
maturity
rate
maturity
maturity
Ex:
The yield curve increase by 1% on all the maturity
rate
C1
C0
maturity
+1%
1) Steepening
Various possibilities :
rate
C1
C0
C1
maturity
rate
C1
maturity
rate
C0
C1
maturity
rate
C0
C1
maturity
II.
Bonds
Bloomberg Print Screen:
Bonds
Actuarial Yield :
C
C
C
C
M
P
...
2
3
N
1 y 1 y 1 y
1 y 1 y N
Bonds
Actuarial Yield :
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
100
99.5
2
3
4
5
1 y 1 y 1 y 1 y 1 y 1 y 5
Bond price is 99.5
Maturity is 5y
Coupon is 2.9%
Bonds
Spot rates :
C
C
C
C
M
...
2
3
N
N
1
r
1 1 r2 1 r3
1 rN 1 rN
Bonds
Bonds
Advantages of the yield to maturity:
Allows investors to compare different bonds with each
other
Good sensitivity of the bond proxy
Discounting ZC method
Maturity from 1day to 12 months:
We use the money market rates ( Euribor) in order
to get the zc rates.
No calculation needed as they are all ready zc
rates.
It is expressed in basis ( exact/360) => we convert
it into exact/365 ( base for zc )
For one day we use the EONIA rate ( money rate)
365
Tzc (1 (TM
360
))
Discounting ZC method
Maturity over 1y :
We use the bootstrapping with the swap rate that is
quoted in the market to get the imply zc rate
100 Tw1
Tw 2
Tw 3
Tw 2 100
Tw 3
Tw 3 100
1
(1 zc1 )1
1
(1 zc 2 ) 2
1
(1 zc 3 ) 3
100
100
100
B A 1 C
Discounting ZC method
ticker
EONIA Curncy
EE0001W Index
EE0001M Index
EE0003M Index
EE0006M Index
EE0009M Index
EE0012M Index
EUSA2 Curncy
EUSA3 Curncy
EUSA4 Curncy
EUSA5 Curncy
EUSA6 Curncy
EUSA7 Curncy
EUSA8 Curncy
EUSA9 Curncy
EUSA10 Curncy
EUSA11 Curncy
EUSA12 Curncy
EUSA13 Curncy
EUSA14 Curncy
EUSA15 Curncy
EUSA16 Curncy
EUSA17 Curncy
EUSA18 Curncy
EUSA19 Curncy
EUSA20 Curncy
EUSA21 Curncy
EUSA22 Curncy
EUSA23 Curncy
EUSA24 Curncy
EUSA25 Curncy
EUSA26 Curncy
EUSA27 Curncy
EUSA28 Curncy
EUSA29 Curncy
EUSA30 Curncy
Market
Rates
0.10%
0.13%
0.18%
0.26%
0.35%
0.29%
0.52%
0.53%
0.73%
0.97%
1.22%
1.44%
1.65%
1.83%
1.99%
2.13%
2.25%
2.35%
2.44%
2.51%
2.56%
2.61%
2.64%
2.67%
2.69%
2.70%
2.71%
2.73%
2.73%
2.73%
2.73%
2.73%
2.73%
2.73%
2.73%
2.72%
Maturity ZC Rates
0.00
0.02
0.08
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
0.100%
0.132%
0.187%
0.260%
0.355%
0.298%
0.531%
0.531%
0.727%
0.978%
1.230%
1.464%
1.676%
1.868%
2.040%
2.194%
2.328%
2.442%
2.540%
2.620%
2.684%
2.735%
2.773%
2.799%
2.817%
2.830%
2.842%
2.855%
2.851%
2.852%
2.845%
2.841%
2.837%
2.830%
2.823%
2.816%
F1,1
FRA x, y
days
(Tref TFix )
360 )
Value n (
days
(1 Tref
)
360
1
DF (t , T )
FRA(t , T , T ) (
1)
( DF (t , T )
TFix : EURIBOR
Tref : FRA
Ft
90
))
360
Price Future
quick approximation :
ConversionFactor
ConversionFactor
P & L k 100000 ( F f F0 )
h
h
f(x 0 h) f(x 0 ) h f ' (x 0 )
f '' (x 0 ) ...
f n (x 0 )
2!
n!
PV (Ct )
D t
PV(Bond)
t 1
C1
C2
CN
1
...
N
(1 y ) 2
(1 y ) N
(1 y )1
D
C1
C2
CN
...
(1 y )1 (1 y ) 2
(1 y ) N
Formula :
Dm
Duration
1 y
Formula :
Ct
P
1 N
Ct
t
(1 y ) t
(
1
y
)
y
1
y
t 1
t 1
Dm P
1 P
Dm
P y
Formula :
CFt
2
(1 y )t (t t )
t 1
1 2P
Convexity
P 2 y
2P
1
2 y (1 y ) 2
Duration : 11.053
Bund
( Price : 142.95)
Duration : 8.382
Ratio :
Ratio
ConversionFactor
Pr ice (CTD) 1000 MDCTD
Hedge Ratio :
Ratio
131.64
10.817
0.695531
99.54 1000 8.254
example : Euribor6m
LIBOR payments the present value of both sets of cash flows is the same at inception.
unknown
Fixed payments
flows on a bond and exchange them for Euribor + spread (i.e. floating
rate payments)
Pure RV indicator
Practical Inflation
Fixed Income
I.
Inflation Market
II.
III.
RV Strategy
I.
Inflation Market
Inflation Market
Clients
Inflation
Markets
Region
s
Instrumen
ts
Inflation Market
Client
s
HEDGING
RELATIVE VALUE
* Pension Funds
* Hedge Funds *
* Insurance
BENCHMARKI
Companies
NG
* Retail
ISSUERS
* ALM / Treasury *
* Pension Funds
* States
* Insurance
* ALM / Treasury
* Inflation
* Agencies
Companies
* Corporates
Funds
* Corporates
* Retail
* Utilities
* Mutual Funds
* Inflation Funds *
* Infrastructure
* Asset Swap
Projects
Investors
* Real Estate
Companies
*Receiver
*Payer
Inflation Market
Inflation Payers :
Payers of inflation are entities that receive inflation cashflows in their
natural line of business as their income is linked to inflation. Therefore
theyll sell it in the inflation market. ( sovereigns will issue inflation
bonds for example)
Inflation Receivers :
Inflation receivers are entities that pays inflation cashflows in their
natural line of business as their liabilities are linked to inflation.
Therefore theyll buy it in the inflation market. ( PF will be short on their
long term inflation liabilities if they dont buy inflation securities to
counterbalance their shortfall risk)
Shortfall risk: risk that their assets drop below their liabilities
Inflation Market
Regio
ns
EUROPE
UK
The most
sophisticated
derivatives market
USA
Biggest cash
market
ASW investors
Limited options
appetite
Lack of
contractual
buyer or seller
of inflation
JAPAN &
AUSTRALIA &
EM
Japan- mainly
on bonds
Deflation is an
issue
Australiasimilar to the
UK
EM- LatAm is
growing fast
On shore/off
shore
Inflation Market
Fig. 1:
Weights in the US CPI
Source: Deutsche Bank
6
Fig. 2:
Weights in the UK RPI
Source: Deutsche Bank
Food and
beverages
Housing
Apparel
Transportatio
n
Medical Care
Recreation
Education and
Communicati
on
Other
7
%
17
42
Fig. 3:
Weights in the EUR
Source: Deutsche
Bank
9
9
4
7
1
10
16
7
16
165
257
88
82
408
Inflation Market
CPI
Delay between the months and the publication of the figure cannot be used directly
for indexation
DRI
Daily figure calculated as a linear interpolation between the published CPI with a 2
and 3-month lag
Inflation Products
alculation
Publication
20 Apr
Publication
20 Mar
116.94
116.71
116.48
116.25
116.01
115.78
115.55
15 20
5 10
01-Feb
01-Mar
01-Apr
01-May
25
01- Jun
CPIFeb
115.55
CPIMar
116.94
Ma
y
20
13
Inflation Market
Instrume
nts
VOLATILITY
REAL YIELD
Inflation-linked
bonds
Nominal bonds vs
inflation swaps
BREAKEVEN
Inflation swaps
Inflation-linked
bonds vs
nominal swaps
ASW
Bond asset
swaps
Cash
breakeven vs
swaps
breakeven
Inflation Market
Nominal yield
Real yield
OATei...)
Breakeven inflation (BEI)
5.00%
Breakeven inflation
Real yield
4.00%
Nominal yield
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
-1.00%
0
10
15
20
25
30
The Fisher Equation: (1+ Nominal Yield) = (1+ Real Yield)* (1+ Breakeven
Inflation)
Real Yield ~ Nominal Yield Breakeven Inflation
7
2
Inflation Market
7
3
Inflation Market
Inflation Expectation + (Liquidity Premium + Risk Premium)
Break-Even Inflation
Inflation Market
Infation bond Structure
Real Yield :
C
C
C
C
M
P
...
2
3
N
1 yr 1 yr 1 yr
1 yr 1 yr N
Inflation Market
Infation bond Structure
cpi N
cpi N
cpi1
cpi2
C
C
C
M
P
...
2
N
N
1 yn base 1 yn base
1 yn base 1 yn base
The Fisher Equation: (1+ Nominal Yield) = (1+ Real Yield)* (1+ Breakeven
Inflation)
Real Yield ~ Nominal Yield Breakeven Inflation
Inflation Market
Infation bond
Inflation Market
Infation bond
II.
Inflation Products
(1+X%)
-1
Expected cashfows
The Buyer
SELLE
R
BUYE
R
Cumulative Inflation-1
Index T
Index 0
Cumulative Inflation =
8
0
8
1
82
CPI t
(CPI t ) t ( Base) (1 zc t ) t
Base : CPI of reference for the swap curve ( 3m lag no
interpolate for EUR)
zc t
83
(CPI t ) t ( Base) (1 zc t ) t
ZC : the inflation ZC swap
curve is quoted in the
inflation market
84
(CPI t ) t ( Base) (1 zc t ) t
Base ( nov2013) :116.86
We are in Fev14 with a 3m
lag, the base is in nov13
85
12
s
i 1
We use the inflation swap rate f for the period [To;Tt ] : exp(
Tt
f (u )du )
T0
86
8 zc 3
) * exp( s12 s1 s 2 s 3 s 4 s 5 s 6 s 7 )
12
We are in Feb 2014 therefore inflation swap curve is base on nov 13 for the eur
inflation curve
is the 3yrs inflation zc swap rate
zc 3
The seasonality from dec to july we add the item of our seasonality vector
nov13 and
zc 2
87
88
89
Expected cashfows
Bank
Inflation Leg
Libor Leg
3.88%
X% + YoY Inflation
Floored @ 0.00%
YoY Inflation =
Index t
1
Index t 1
4.07%
4.18%
4.30%
2.77%
-2.25%
-3.35%
-4.17%
-4.57%
-4.90%
9
0
vs
If you believe real rates are going to increase, you want to be Party A
If you believe real rates are going to decrease, you want to be Party B
Widely traded by
Retail banks
Private banks
Asset managers
Corporates- as payer of
91
Cumulative Inflation t -1
Inflation Leg
13.67%
11.23%
Fixed Leg
8.64%
Bank
Client
(1+X%) -1
5.89%
2.97%
-2.83%
-5.80%
-8.55%
-11.49%
-14.44%
Cumulative Inflation t =
Index t
Index 0
9
2
93
Issu
er
At inception:
Inflation-linked BOND
Client
Bank
Bond Coupons,
paid on inflation-adjusted
notional
9
4
2.23%
3.95%
4.18%
-1.75%
-1.80%
4.33%
Client
Bank
X% * Cumulative Inflation
-1.68%
-1.71%
Inflation Leg
Libor Leg
At maturity:
100% * Max (Cumulative Inflation-1, 0.00%)
-13.38%
Index T
Index 0
Cumulative Inflation =
95