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CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
12
10
Unemployment rate
Natural rate of
unemployment
0
CHAPTER
Unemployment
1960 61965
1970 1975 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010 4
Unemployment
Assumptions:
1. L is exogenously fixed.
2. During any given month,
s = rate of job separations,
the fraction of employed workers
that become separated from their jobs
f = rate of job finding,
fraction of unemployed workers
that find jobs
s and f are exogenous
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
Employed
Unemploye
d
f U
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
Unemployment
U
s
L sf
Example:
Each month,
1% of employed workers lose their jobs
(s = 0.01)
19% of unemployed workers find jobs
(f = 0.19)
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
Example:
Each month,
1% of employed workers lose their jobs
(s = 0.01)
19% of unemployed workers find jobs
(f = 0.19)
0.05, or 5%
L s f
0.01 0.19
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
10
Policy implication
From
We get
Unemployment
11
Policy implication
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Unemployment
12
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
13
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
14
occurs because
workers have different abilities, preferences
jobs have different skill requirements
geographic mobility of workers is not
instantaneous
flow of information about vacancies and job
candidates is imperfect
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Unemployment
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Unemployment
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Unemployment
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Unemployment
18
CASE STUDY:
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
19
In
In our
our dynamic
dynamic economy,
economy,
smaller
smaller sectoral
sectoral shifts
shifts occur
occur frequently,
frequently,
contributing
contributing to
to frictional
frictional unemployment.
unemployment.
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Unemployment
20
Question:
What can governments do to tackle
frictional unemployment ?
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Unemployment
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CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
22
Why ??
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
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Unemployment
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Unemployment
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Benefits of UI
By allowing workers more time to search,
UI may lead to better matches between
jobs and workers, which would lead to
greater productivity and higher incomes
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
26
U
s
L s f
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Unemployment
27
Real
wage
Supply
Unemployment
Rigid
real
wage
Demand
Labor
Amount of
labor hired
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Unemployment
Amount of labor
willing to work
28
CHAPTER 6
Then,
Then, firms
firms must
must ration
ration the
the
scarce
scarce jobs
jobs among
among workers.
workers.
Structural
Structural unemployment:
unemployment:
The
The unemployment
unemployment resulting
resulting
from
from real
real wage
wage rigidity
rigidity and
and
job
job rationing.
rationing.
Unemployment
29
2.
Efficiency wages
3.
Unions power
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Unemployment
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Unemployment
31
232
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Unemployment
33
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Unemployment
34
Unemployment
35
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Unemployment
36
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
37
CHAPTER
The Science
of Macroeconomics
19601 1965
1970 1975
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
The
The real
real minimum
minimum wage
wage
and
and natural
natural u-rate
u-rate have
have
similar
similar trends.
trends.
$8
$7
$6
$5
minimum wage
in 2009 dollars
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
38
19501 1955
1965of1970
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CHAPTER
The 1960
Science
Macroeconomics
Sectoral shifts
1986-2005:
1986-2005: oil
oil prices
prices less
less
140
volatile,
volatile, so
so fewer
fewer sectoral
sectoral shifts
shifts
1970-1986:
volatile
oil
prices
1970-1986:
volatile
oil
prices
120
create
create jarring
jarring sectoral
sectoral shifts
shifts
100
80
Price per
barrel of oil,
60
40
in 2009
dollars
20
0
CHAPTER
19651
The
Macroeconomics
1970 Science
1975 of
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
39
2010
Union membership
Union membership
selected years
year
1930
12%
1945
35%
1954
35%
1970
27%
1983
20.1%
2008
12.3%
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
Since
Since early
early 1980s,
1980s,
the
the natural
natural rate
rate
and
and union
union
membership
membership
have
have both
both fallen.
fallen.
But,
But, from
from 1950s
1950s
to
to about
about 1980,
1980,
the
the natural
natural rate
rate
rose
rose while
while union
union
membership
membership fell.
fell.
40
12
10
8
6
4
France
Germany
Italy
0
1970 6 1975
1980
1985
CHAPTER
Unemployment
1990
1995
2000
2005
201041
Unemployment
42
Unemployment
43
CHAPTER 6
United States
18%
United Kingdom
47
Switzerland
53
Spain
68
Sweden
83
Germany
90
France
92
Austria
98
Unemployment
44
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
45
Case study
Minimum wage: a poor way to reduce poverty,
Cato Institute
CHAPTER 6
Unemployment
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