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PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Presented by:
John Rakos, MSc, PMP
President, John J. Rakos &
Associates Consultants Ltd.
John J. Rakos is available to teach or
consult in any topic presented in this
seminar.

Module 1 - Introducti

INTRODUCTION
Reference sources
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (2003). The
Project Management Institute. http://www.pmi.org
Rakos, John J. et al, A Practical Guide to Project Management
Documentation, Wiley, 2004
Kerzner, Harold. Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning,
Scheduling and Controlling. 6th ed. John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
Rakos, John J. Software Project Management for Small to Medium Sized
Projects. Prentice-Hall, 1990.

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INTRODUCTION
The Value of Project Management

Allows for excellent organization and tracking


Better control and use of resources
Reduces complexity of inter-related tasks
Allows measurement of outcome versus plans
Early identification of problems and quick
correction

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INTRODUCTION
PMBOKTM Knowledge Areas
Based on the Project Management Institutes Project
Management Body of Knowledge: PMBOK1
Nine knowledge areas:
This webinar:

Scope, Time, Cost, Risk, Integration


-- Next webinar:
Quality, Procurement,
Communications,
Human Resources, Integration
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INTRODUCTION
PMP Certification
Internationally accepted accreditation
Get certification
3 (5 without degree) years experience
35 hours training
4 hour, 200 questions, multiple choice exam!
Have to be re-certified every 3 years
60 PDUs
Attending a conference
Attending course
PMI membership
Publications
PM work

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INTRODUCTION
What is a Project?
A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique
product or service
- A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK),
Project Management Institute, 2003

One time
Limited funds/time
Specific resources utilized
Performed by people - Single or multi-person team
Planned, controlled
Specific Deliverables

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INTRODUCTION
The Triple Constraint of Projects
On Time, Budget, Quality = Required Scope
Time

Cost

Quality

Integration
Trade Offs

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INTRODUCTION
Project Life Cycle
Concept Planning Execution/Control
Definition | Analysis
20%

Closing

|Design|Build|Test|Accept| Implement|
60%

5%

Operation

15%

Percentages and graph refer to the amount of effort (people)


In IT projects = 90-95% of cost!

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Project Planning
Write a Plan Containing
1. Steps required to accomplish the project objectives
2. Tasks needed to be done at each step (using Work Breakdown
Structures)
3. Estimate of how much effort each task requires
4. The resources required for each task
5. (Given 3. and 4.) Calculation of how long each task/step will take
6. (Given 4. and 5.) Calculation of task, step and project costs
7. The inter-dependencies of tasks
8. The schedule for each task and the whole project (Milstones,
Deliverables, payments)

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Project Planning: set expectations of Stakeholders

Stakeholders
Contractors

Project Sponsor

Users

Project Leader
Project
Manager
Finance

Procurement

Systems
Engineering

Support

Sales

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Maintenance

IM/
IT

10

Project Planning: Time and Cost Estimate


Iterative
Accuracy
Estimates become more accurate
Initiation
Definition

Planning
Analysis
+15

+25%

Execution
Design

Closing

+10

0
-50

-25

-75%
Preliminary Plan

Proposal Plan

Final Plan

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Revised Plan

11

Project Management
Module 2:
Scope Management

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Project Scope Planning


Scope Management
Ensuring that the project includes all the work
required, only the work required.
Dividing the work into major pieces, then
subdividing into smaller, more manageable
pieces.

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Work Breakdown Structure - Formats


1. Organization Chart Method
0.
Title
1.
2.
Major Phase 1 Major Phase 2

1.1
Section 1
of Phase 1

1.2
Section 2
of Phase 1

3.
Major Phase 3

1.3
Section 3
of Phase 1

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Work Breakdown Structure - Formats


2. Outline Method
0. TITLE
1.
1.1
1.2
1.3
2.
...
etc.

MAJOR PHASE 1
S1 OF PHASE1
S2 OF PHASE1
S3 OF PHASE1
MAJOR PHASE 2

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WBS - Typical Tasks

Detailed WBS Example


for procuring an
Equipment System
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Work Breakdown Structure


Summary (Top Level) WBS

Summary and Detail tasks, or


Parent and Child tasks (Work Package)
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Work Breakdown Structure


Using the Work Breakdown Structure
1. Estimate and schedule the work (Durations, precedences on WBS)
2. Organize and schedule resources (resource allocated WBS)
3. Assign responsibilities (Resource ramp-up, resource allocated
WBS)
4. Estimate and allocate costs and budgets (costed WBS)
5. Add up costs to different levels

Task
Levels on the WBS (phase, account/contract)
Cost account
Total project

6. Get resource commitments


7. Schedule start <--> end dates
8. Track expenditures, schedules and performance

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Project Management
Module 3:
Project Time Planning

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Project Time Planning


Estimating Effort: 3 Methods
1. Professional Judgment
Expert picks a number (out of the air!)
Requires an expert
Requires experience
Good memory
May ignore people
VERY RELIABLE FOR THEMSELVES

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Project Time Planning


Estimating Efforts (contd)
2. History

Look at tables of past actuals on major tasks


Interpolate
Requires professional judgment
Requires good history (which changes!)

3. Formula
3.1 Variables

Determine major variable factors (task, person)


Using measurement determine formula of factors
Interview and plug into formula

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Project Time Planning


Estimating Efforts (contd)
3.2 Function Points
Determine smallest pieces (function points) of project.
Using measurement establish time for each one.
For new project, break into
function points; add up
times, then multiply for worker productivity.

(Possibly: Junior x 2, Average x 1, Senior x 0.5)

FORMULA IS BEST (IN THEORY).

IN REALITY,____________ BEST.

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Estimating use of History


Ratios for Systems project
SYSTEMS ACTIVITIES

DUR

EFFORT

SYSTEM SPECIFICATIONS
SYSTEM DESIGN
SOFTWARE REQUREMENTS
SOFTWARE PRELIMINARY DESIGN
SOFTWARE DETAILED DESIGN
CODE AND UNIT TEST
SOFTWARE INTEGRATION & TEST
SOFTWARE QUALIFICATION
SYTEM INTEGRATION & QUAL.
WARRANTY AND SUPPORT

11-15%
8-12%
2-4%
5-7%
8-11%
20-28%
10-14%
5-7%
8-12%
N/A

6-10%
6-10%
3-5%
4-6%
9-12%
24-32%
11-15%
2-4%
8-12%
7-10%

MAKE YOUR OWN BASED ON THE MAJOR PHASES/PIECES!

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Scheduling

If Estimate was Effort, must convert it to Duration


Duration = Effort/Resources (sometimes)
Taking into account:
Resource availability
Desire
Skill
Productivity

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Scheduling: Requires Duration and Precedents

Two Graphical tools for Scheduling:


1. PERT Chart
Plan (from WBS)
Task Precedent
A
B
A
C
D
C
E
F
E
G
F

Duration
7d
3d
10d
5d
4d
6d
3d

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Scheduling
Ordering the Activities: PERT Chart
Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)
2
B

3d

7d
C
10d

D
5d

G 3d

4d
4

F
6d

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Scheduling - Gantt Chart


Order of building the Gantt Chart:
Work Breakdown
Estimates (duration)
Dependencies
Resource use
Gantt shows:
Critical Path
Non Critical Path(s)
Early Start/Finish
Late Start/Finish
Slack

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Scheduling - Gantt Chart

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Scheduling - Gantt Chart


Gantt (Schedule) Drives
1. Milestones
Clear, concrete, binary events implying progress
For example: Review (with approval), Sign off of a deliverable,
Funds approved
Shown as 0 length task

Try for even frequency


Not too close
Not more than 2 - 3 months apart

Major Point to communicate with


Client
Outside world
Management

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Scheduling - Gantt Chart


Gantt (Schedule) Drives

Training
Meetings
Reviews
Reports
Site preparation
Delivery dates (date to order) for external items
Payment

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Project Management
Module 4:
Resource Assignment
and Cost Planning
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Assigning Resources
Availability
Skills

More experienced people


Less experienced people

Desire
Similar tasks to one person to use learning curve
Assign critical tasks to most reliable people
Tasks that need interaction or are similar
Same person
Two who communicate

Personality and team communication does matter


and again, Availability

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Resource Loading and Optimizing


Gantt with Resource Histogram

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Resource leveling - possible rescheduling


Gantt with Resource Histogram

Manual resource leveling: fast vs good vs cheap


Automatic resource leveling: use only as suggestion

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Cost Estimating
Similar to Time Estimating (usually done by the same person/group
that does the Time Estimates)
Calculation of Cost for each WP: Example:
If estimate was duration 10 days
Assign human resources 2 people
Need Effort = Duration x Resources

E=2x10=20pd

e.g., Resource Cost (RC) = Effort x Rate(includes overhead)


RC=20x$1,000=$20,000
(Possible) Plus Fixed Cost (FC)
e.g., FC = $5,000
Total cost (TC) = Resource cost + Fixed Cost
TC=20,000 + 5,000 = 25,000

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Costed WBS
Use Software to roll costs up the WBS

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Cost Ramp-Up
Use Software to report cash flow
1997

1998

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

$53,920.00

$127,160.00

$274,360.00

$331,440.00

$349,920.00

$368,400.00

$376,500.00

$400,000.00

$300,000.00

$200,000.00

$100,000.00

Cumulative Cost:

Filtered resources

Total:

CPM

Total:

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$376,500.00

37

Cost - Sanity checks


Cost Estimate Error Range same as Time Estimate
+75%

25
10

0
-10

-25%
Indicative
PPA
Init Plan

Budget
EPA
Final Plan

-8

Definitive
PDR
Design

PPA - Preliminary Project Approval


EPA - Effective
PDR - Preliminary Design Review

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Project Management
Module 5:
Risk Management

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Risk Management
Planning and Control Processes
Risk: anything not in the project plan that may occur and
cause your project to be late, cost more or compromise its
quality/performance.
Risk is an opportunity as well as a threat:
You dont put power brakes on a car to slow it down - you do so to
allow it to go faster.
-Mark Davies, KPMG
We will concentrate on the threat.

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Four Steps of Risk Management


1. Identification
Anticipate the risk
List the risks, event triggers, symptoms

2. Analysis
Evaluate probability, impact
Qualitative vs Quantitative

3. Risk Response
Strategy Development to mitigate the risk:
Eliminate the risk or reduce impact
Contingency planning

4. Risk Control

Monitor
Update lists, strategies
Action the contingency plan
Fight the fires

Which is most important??


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Step 1: Risk Identification


Anticipate the Risk
Risk Checklist at Preliminary Planning Time (Risk Taxonomy)

Are we proposing the right solution?


Any risk in technical components?
Performance expectations reasonable?
Is the hardware standard?
How much experience do we have with it?
Is the operating software standard? Well documented?
How much experience do we have with it?
Is the development method standard? Well documented?
How much experience do we have with it?
Any component availability risks?

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Step 1: Risk Identification


Risk Checklist at Preliminary Planning Time (Risk Taxonomy)
(contd)

Does failure of this application affect the customers business?


Is the project over 6 months? 12 months? 24 months?
Does it need over 5 people?
Are we dependent on third party resources? Internal? External?
Who is the project manager?
Who is the project leader/architect?
Are the resources available when needed?
Who is the client?
Have we worked with this client? How is our relationship?
Is client available when needed?

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Step 1: Risk Identification: Inputs


Risk Checklists, The WBS, Environment:
NATURAL
ENVIRONMENTS

SENIOR
MANAGEMENT

CORPORATE
POLICY
AND CULTURE

POLITICAL

CORPORATE
PROGRAMS

PROJECT/
PM

& FINANCIAL
TECHNOLOGY

ECONOMIC

REGULATORY
AND LEGAL

HUMAN FACTORS
HEALTH & SAFETY

History of past Similar Projects


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Step 2: Risk Analysis


Evaluate Probability and Impact into three levels:
Low, Medium, High:
Probability Criteria:
Probability Rank

Description

High
Medium

Greater than 66% probability of occurring

Low

Less than 33% probability of occurring

34 to 65% probability of occurring

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Step 2: Risk Analysis


Impact Criteria:
Impact Rank
Schedule

Description
High

Medium
Low
Cost

High
Medium
Low

Could add over 25% delay to the completion


of the project
Could add over 10% delay to the completion
of the project
Could add less than 10% delay to the completion of
the project, or delays a non critical deliverable
Could add more than 25% to the project budget
Could add between 10 and 25% to the project budget
Could add less than 10% to the project budget

Quality
Determine a combined impact level based on which constraint is most affected.

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Step 2: Risk Analysis


Draw a Risk Table to Summarize
Wonderful Management Tool/Report
Prob.
Impact

Low

Medium

High

3. Lack of skilled staff,


organization slow to hire
adequate staff; may
delay implementation.

2. Time estimate and


funds inadequate for the
scope of this project;
may be late and over
budget.

1. Lack of commitment.
Headquarters may have to
assume more responsibility;
will result in project delay,
cost overruns.

Medium

6. Cannot get office space


for staff; may cause
communication problems,
delaying the execution
phase.

5. Expecting major scope


changes from clients;
may cause delay and
cost escalation.

4. Not enough time spent


planning, lack of
understanding of problem;
may take longer/
cost more than anticipated.

High

Low
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Step 3: Risk Response


Strategy Development:
Reduce the Probability and/or Impact of the Risk
Risk Mitigation: Reducing the probability and/or impact
Take immediate action. Can be risk avoidance (if
eliminated) or risk reduction (still there, but probability
or impact is reduced).
Contingency Plans
Take action only when the risk is imminent or has
occurred
Or Acceptance (do nothing), depends on Risk Tolerance

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Risk as a Monetary Value


Tempering the Estimate
Estimate range is
ESTIMATE
ESTIMATE + RISK
Try to work within the range, depending on how crucial
the accuracy has to be.

If you can get several estimates


Use the Standard Deviations to give you confidence levels:
Expected estimate +/- 1 SD gives you 68% confidence
Expected estimate +/- 2 SD gives you 95% confidence
Expected estimate +/- 3 SD gives you 99% confidence

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Project Management
Module 6:
Scope/ Time/ Cost Control

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Project Control Scope Control


Scope Change Control
Formal change control
Evaluate cost/time impact
Renegotiate, set expectations
Implement or defer to next release

Configuration Management
Keep track of what changes were made to which
modules
Versioning
Interoperability of modules
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Project Control Schedule and Cost


Step 1 - Take a baseline.
Baseline plan: a copy of the plan (WBS with all dates,
assignments, costs).
Used to report progress against the baseline.
Taken at a mutually agreed upon planning point:
Proposal or Analysis completion
+25% to -10% stage
Baseline is (theoretically) not alterable
Unless major scope change occurs.

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Project Control Reporting Schedule using a Tracking Gantt

Double Gantt: Shows Project Schedule Progress vs baseline


ID Task Name
1
2

Duration

Session 7 - write Pm course

Start

101.4 days

'99 Sep 01

8.4 days

'99 Sep 01

Initiation

September
October
November
31 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 02 05 08 11 14 17 20

99%

Interview client

3 days

'99 Sep 01

Write Proj Concept

2 days

'99 Sep 09

100%

Concept approved

0 days

'99 Sep 10

09-10

8 days

'99 Sep 10

Planning

100%

0%

Interview users

5 days

'99 Sep 10

0%

Interview managers

5 days

'99 Sep 10

0%

Write plan

3 days

'99 Sep 17

0%

10

Funds approved

0 days

'99 Sep 22

09-22

61 days

'99 Sep 22

23 days

'99 Sep 22

11
12

Development
Design

0%

13

Design coursware

10 days

'99 Sep 22

14

Design Case study

10 days

'99 Oct 05

15

Walk through design

1 day

'99 Oct 19

16

Revise design

2 days

'99 Oct 20

0%

17

Design done

0 days

'99 Oct 21

10-21

22 days

'99 Oct 21

18

Write Course

19

Write courseware

20 days

'99 Oct 21

20

Write case

10 days

'99 Oct 21

21

Course material walkthrough

2 days

'99 Nov 17

0%

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0%
0%

0%
0%
0%
0%

53

Project Control Cost Control/Reporting


Financial Report vs Baseline
ID

Task Name

Session 7 - write Pm course

Fixed Cost

Initiation

Total Cost

Baseline

Variance

$0.00

$74,920.00

$74,120.00

$800.00

$0.00

$5,280.00

$4,480.00

$800.00

September
October
November
December
January
29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23
7%
99%

Interview client

$0.00

$2,400.00

$2,400.00

$0.00

Write Proj Concept

$0.00

$2,880.00

$2,080.00

$800.00

100%

Concept approved

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

09-13

$0.00

$12,320.00

$12,320.00

$0.00

Planning

100%

0%

Interview users

$0.00

$5,200.00

$5,200.00

$0.00

0%

Interview managers

$0.00

$4,000.00

$4,000.00

$0.00

0%

Write plan

$0.00

$3,120.00

$3,120.00

$0.00

0%

10

Funds approved

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

09-23

$0.00

$52,800.00

$52,800.00

$0.00

$0.00

$28,040.00

$28,040.00

$0.00

11
12

Development
Design

0%
0%

13

Design coursware

$0.00

$12,400.00

$12,400.00

$0.00

14

Design Case study

$0.00

$12,400.00

$12,400.00

$0.00

0%

15

Walk through design

$0.00

$2,040.00

$2,040.00

$0.00

0%

16

Revise design

$0.00

$1,200.00

$1,200.00

$0.00

0%

17

Design done

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

$0.00

10-26

$0.00

$21,880.00

$21,880.00

$0.00

$12,000.00

$0.00

18

Write Course

19

Write courseware

$0.00

$12,000.00

20

Write case

$0.00

$4,000.00

0%

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$4,000.00

$0.00

0%
0%
0%

54

Project Management
Module 7:
Conclusions

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Resources Available
To help you Manage your Projects
Training & Learning
Universities
Project Management courses
Major/Masters in Project
Others public
Project Management Institute (PMI)
PMP Certification courses
PMI conferences
250,000 members worldwide
Your own Subject Matter Experts

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Resources Available
To help you Manage your Projects

Training & Learning


Internet
PMI.org
Many sites: search on Project Management
NASA
Software Engineering Institute
Software Productivity Center
DOD/Pentagon
Project Management Software (WBS, Schedule, Cost, Resource usage,
Multiple project roll-up, Internet reporting,...)
Microsoft Project
Primavera
Open source: OpenProj

John J. Rakos is available to teach or consult in any topic presented in this


seminar.

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Final Details
Can you be a good project manager?
Ask yourself:
Can I say 'NO'?
Can I attack problems as soon as/even before they
arise?
Can I live unloved?
If you do your job well,
people will wonder what you do!
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