CE 254

Transportation Engineering

The Four-Step Model:

II. Trip Distribution
Wes Marshall, P.E.
University of Connecticut
February 2008

Inputs

The Basic Transportation Model

1)
2)

3)

Outputs

Study Area Zones

Attributes of Zones
Socioeconomic Data
Land Use Data
Cost of Travel btw. Zones

The Road Network

Traffic Volume by Road Link

Mode Splits
Emissions

Whats in the Black Box?

The Four-Step Model

The Four-Step Modeling Process

I.

Trip Generation

II.

Trip Distribution

WHY?

III. Mode Choice

IV.

Trip Assignment

The Four-Step Model

The main reason we use
the four-step model is:

To predict roadway traffic volumes

& traffic problems such as
congestion and pollution emissions

In turn, we typically use

the models to compare
several transportation alternatives

The Four-Step Model

Originally developed in the 1950s with
the interstate highway movement

Since the 1950s, researchers have developed a

multitude of advanced modeling techniques

Nevertheless, most agencies still

use the good ol four-step model

Overview of the
Four-Step Model

TRIP GENERATION
Input:

Household Socioeconomic Data - HH Size

- Income
Survey Data
- No. of Cars

Iterative Process

Land Use Data

Process:

Output:

Model residential trip productions and non-residential trip attractions w/

- Regression Models
- Trip-Rate Analysis
- Cross-Classification Models

Trip Ends by purpose

- i.e. columns of trip productions and trip attractions

TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Input:
Process:

Output:

Trip Ends by purpose

Growth Factor Models

-

Not as accurate as Gravity Model

Used for external trips or short-term planning

- Gravity Model
-

Used for regional or long-term planning

Trip Interchanges

- A matrix of trips between each TAZ also called a trip table

Examples of HH
socioeconomic data

- No. of Housing Units Examples of

- Office, Industrial SF land use data

Iterative Process

MODE CHOICE
Input:
Process:

Trip Interchanges

Finds trip interchanges between i & j for each mode

- Function of Trip Maker, Journey, and Transport Facility
- Trip End Model
-

Mode plays role in trip ends

Typically used for small cities with little traffic and little transit
No accounting for the role that policy decisions play in mode choice

- Trip Interchance Model

-

Output:

Use when LOS is important, transit is a true choice, highways are congested, and parking is limited

Trip Table by Mode

TRIP ASSIGNMENT
Input:
Process:

Output:

Trip Table by Mode

Allocate trips to links between nodes i & j
- Function of Path to Destination and Minimum Cost (time & money)
- Identify Attractive Routes via Tree Building
Shortest Path Algorithm or Dijkstras Algorithm
- Assign Portions of Matrix to Routes / Tree
User Equilibrium, Heuristic Methods, Stochastic Effects w/ Logit
- Search for Convergence

Daily Link Traffic Volumes

- i.e. traffic flows on network, ridership on transit lines

Some General Problems with the

Conventional Methodology
Huge focus on vehicular traffic

A transit component is typical in better models

Typically forecasts huge increases in traffic

Leads to engineers building bigger roads

to accommodate forecast traffic
Which leads to induced traffic and congestion
right back where we started when we
needed the bigger roads in the first place

Some General Problems with the

Conventional Methodology
Pedestrians and bicyclists
are rarely included

Level of geography is difficult

for non-motorized modes
Network scale is insignificant
Input variables are too limited

Preparing for a
Four-Step Model
Before jumping into trip generation,
we first have to set up our project
1)
2)
3)

Define study area and boundaries

Establish the transportation network
Create the zones

Defining the Study Area

3 Basic Types

Regional
Statewide or a large metro area
Used to predict larger patterns of traffic distribution,
growth, and emissions

Corridor
Major facility such as a freeway, arterial, or transit line
Used to evaluate traffic

Site or Project
Proposed development or small scale change
(i.e. intersection improvement)
Used to evaluate traffic impact

Establish the Network

Roads are represented by a
series of links & nodes
Link

Node

Links are defined by speed and capacity

Turns are allowed at nodes

Establish the Network

Typically only main roads and
intersections are included

Even collector roads are often excluded

This practice is becoming less common

as the processing power of computers
has increased

Creating Zones
Create Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)

Uniform land use

Bounded by major roads
Typically small in size (about the
size of a few neighborhood blocks)

The State of Connecticut model has

~2,000 zones that cover 5,500 square
miles and over 3.4 million people

Creating Zones
All modeled trips begin in a zone and
are destined for a zone

Zones are usually large enough that most

pedestrian and bicycle trips start and end in
the same zone (and thus not modeled)
Also, the typical data we collect about
zones in terms of population and
employment information is not enough to
predict levels of walking and biking

Trip Generation

Trip Generation
Using socioeconomic data, we try to estimate
how many trips are produced by each TAZ
For example, we might use linear regression to
estimate that a 2-person, 2-car household with a
total income of $90,000 makes 2 home-based
work trips per day
Using land use data, we estimate how many trips
are attracted to each TAZ
For example, an 3,000 SF office might bring in
12 work trips per day

Trip Generation
The process considers the
total number of trips

Thus, walking and biking trips have not

been officially excluded (although most
models ignore them completely)

The trips are generated by trip purpose

such as work or shopping

Recreational or discretionary trips are

difficult to include

Trip Generation
Input: Socioeconomic Data
Land Use Data
1
3
2

5
4
7

Output: Trip Ends by purpose (i.e. work)

in columns of productions & attractions

Trip Generation Trip Distribution

The question is how do we allocate all
the productions among all the attractions?
Zone 2
Zone 3

Zone 1

Trip MatrixZone 4
or
Trip Table Zone 5

Zone 6
Zone 7
Zone 8

Trip Distribution

Trip Distribution
We link production or origin zones to
attraction destination zones
A trip matrix is produced
TAZ
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Zone 1

Trip Matrix

The cells within the trip matrix are the

trip interchanges between zones

Trip Interchanges
Decrease with distance between zones

In addition to the distance between zones,

total trip cost can include things such as
tolls and parking costs

Increase with zone attractiveness

Typically includes square footage of retail

or office space but can get much more
complicated

Trip Distribution
Similar to Trip Generation, all the
modes are still lumped together by
purpose (i.e. work, shopping)

This creates a problem for non-vehicular

trips because distance affects these trips
very differently
Additionally, many walking and biking
trips are intra-zonal & difficult to model

Basic Criteria for TD

Criteria for allocating all the
productions among all the attractions

Cost of trip
Travel

Time
Actual Costs

Attractiveness
Quantity

of Opportunity
Desirability of Opportunity

How to Distribute the Trips?

I. Growth Factor Models

II. Gravity Model

Growth Factor Models

Growth Factor Models assume that we
already have a basic trip matrix

Usually obtained from a previous

study or recent survey data

Growth Factor Models

The goal is then to estimate the matrix
at some point in the future

For example, what would the trip matrix

look like in 10 years time?

Trip Matrix, t
(2008)

Trip Matrix, T
(2018)

Some of the More Popular

Growth Factor Models
Uniform Growth Factor
Singly-Constrained Growth Factor
Average Factor
Detroit Factor
Fratar Method

Uniform Growth
Factor Model

Uniform Growth Factor

i = I = Production Zone
j = J = Attraction Zone
Tij = tij for each pair i and j
Tij = Future Trip Matrix
tij = Base-year Trip Matrix
= General Growth Rate

Uniform Growth Factor

If we assume = 1.2, then
Trip Matrix, t
(2008)

Tij = tij
= (1.2)(5)
=6
Trip Matrix, T
(2018)

Uniform Growth Factor

The Uniform Growth Factor is
typically used for 1 or 2 year horizons

However, assuming that trips grow

at a standard uniform rate is a
fundamentally flawed concept

Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Model

Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Method
Similar to the Uniform Growth Factor
Method but constrained in one direction
For example, lets start with our base
matrix, t
attractions, j
productions, i

zones

Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Method
Instead of one uniform growth factor, assume
that we have estimated how many more or less
trips will start from our origins

Now all we have to do is multiply each

row by the ratio of (Target Pi) / (j)

Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Method

Tij = tij (Target Pi) / (j)

= 5 (400 / 355)
= 5.6

Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Method
Can also perform the singly-constrained
growth factor method for a destination
specific future trip table

By multiplying each column

by the ratio of (Target Aj) / (i)

Overview of the Singly-Constrained

Growth Factor Methodology
One of the simplest trip distribution techniques
Used with existing trip table & future trip ends
Typically, we balance flows after processing

This means that the total number of productions

equals the total number of attractions
(or in terms of origins & destinations)
Tij = Tji

But there are more advanced growth factor

models

Average Growth
Factor Model

Average Growth Factor Function

g ( )=

k
Fi

+
2

k
Fj

F = Growth Factor
= Ratio of Target Trips to
Previous Iteration Trips
k = Iteration Number

The Basic Steps

1)

Collect Inputs

2)

Matrix of Existing Trips, {tij}

Vector of Future Trips Ends, {Ti}

Compute Growth Factor for each zone

Fik=

Ti
=
k-1
ti

Target Trip End

Previous Iteration Trip End

3)

Compute
Inter-zonal
Flows
k
k-1
k
k

4)

Compute
Trips
Ends
k
k

5)

If tik = Ti for each zone i, then stop

tij = tij

[g(Fi , Fj , )] for each ij pair

ti = tij for each zone i

Growth Factor Models: Average Factor Example

Fik + Fjk
g ( )=
2
1.41+1.25
1.330=
2

Fratar Method
Growth Factor Model

Fratar Method
k-1
k
t
F
ji
j
k
Replace Step 2 with tij =Ti t k-1F k
iz
z

k
k
t
+
t
ij
ji
k
k
Balance Matrix with Tij =Tji =
2

Growth Factor Models: Fratar Method Example

Fi(1) =

Ti
ti(0)

Future Trips
= Current Trips =

115
55

= 2.09

tizk-1Fzk = (t110)(F11)+(t120)(F21)+(t130)(F31)+(t140)(F41)
=(0)(2.09) + (25)(1.30) + (10)(1.59) +(20)(1.46)
= 78
tizk-1Fzk = (t210)(F11)+(t220)(F21)+(t230)(F31)+(t240)(F41)
=(25)(2.09) + (0)(1.30) + (60)(1.59) +(30)(1.46)
= 191

Growth Factor Models: Fratar Method Example

Iteration 1: tij(1) = tij(0) Ti Fj(1) / [tiz(0) Fz(1)]

1
2
3
1
0
48
24
2
41
0
75
3
23
87
0
4
38
35
22

4
43
34
24
0

t431 = (t340)(T4)(F31)/[(t4z0)(Fz1)]
= (15)(95)(1.59) / (105)
= 22
t121 = (t210)(T1)(F21)/[(t1z0)(Fz1)]
= (25)(115)(1.30) / (78)
= 48

Iteration 1: tij(1) = tij(0) Ti Fj(1) / [tiz(0) Fz(1)]

1
2
3
1
0
48
24
2
41
0
75
3
23
87
0
4
38
35
22

4
43
34
24
0

Balance Flows = (tij1 + tji1) / 2

= (22 + 24) / 2
= 23

Now onto Iteration 2

Iteration 2
Iteration 2: tij(2) = tij(1) Ti Fj(2) / [tiz(1) Fz(2)]
1
2
3
1
0
46
27
2
43
0
77
3
27
83
0
4
41
31
23

4
42
30
24
0

Balance Flows & Compute Values

Iteration 3

Balance Flows & Compute Values

Limitations of the
Fratar Model
Breaks down mathematically with a new zone
Convergence to the target year not always possible
The model does not reflect travel times or cost of
travel between zones
Thus, this model as well as the other growth factor
models are only used for

External trips through the zones or

Short-term horizon years

The
Gravity
Model

The Inspiration for

the Gravity Model
The big idea behind the gravity model
is Newtons law of gravitation

M1 M 2
F=k
r2
The force of attraction between 2 bodies is
directly proportional to the product of masses
between the two bodies and inversely
proportional to the square of the distance

The Inspiration for

the Gravity Model
In terms of transportation planning
and trip distribution:

The zones correspond to the objects

The attributes of the zones in terms of the
relative proportion of productions and
attractions represent the mass of the objects
The distance between the zones is captured
by the distance between the objects

Some of the Variables

Tij = Qij = Trips Volume between i & j
Fij =1/Wcij = Friction Factor
Wij = Generalized Cost (including travel time, cost)
c = Calibration Constant
pij = Probability that trip i will be attracted to zone j
kij = Socioeconomic Adjustment Factor

The Gravity Model

Pi Aj FijKij
Tij = Qij =
= Pipij
AzFizKij
=

(Productions)(Attractions)(Friction Factor)
Sum of the (Attractions x Friction Factors) of the Zones

Fij = 1 / Wcij

&

ln F = - c ln W

The bigger the friction factor,

the more trips that are encouraged

2 Types of Gravity Models

1. Parametric

Fits equation to curve

2. Non-parametric
% Trips

Time (min)

Uses look-up table for bars

To Apply the Gravity Model

What we need
1.

Productions, {Pi}

2.

Attractions, {Aj}

3.

Skim Tables {Wij)

Target-Year Interzonal Impedances

Gravity Model Example 8.2

Given:

Target-year Productions, {Pi}

Relative Attractiveness of Zones, {Aj}
Skim Table, {Wij}
Calibration Factor, c = 2.0
Socioeconomic Adjustment Factor, K = 1.0

Find:

Trip Interchanges, {Qij}

Attractions vs. Attractiveness

The number of attractions to a particular zone
depends upon the zones attractiveness

As compared to the attractiveness of all the other

competing zones and
The distance between them

Two zones with identical attractiveness may

have a different number of attractions due to ones
remote location
Thus, substituting attractions for attractiveness
can lead to incorrect results

Given

Target-Year Inter-zonal
Impedances, {Wij}

Calibration Factor
c = 2.0
Socioeconomic Adj. Factor
K = 1.0

Calculate Friction Factors, {Fij}

1
1
Fij = c = F11= 2 = 0.04
5
W ij
Find Denominator of Gravity Model Equation {AjFijKij}

AjFijKij=A4F34K34 = (5)(0.01)(1.0)
= 0.05
Find Probability that Trip i will be attracted to Zone j, {pij}

pij =

AjFijKij
(AzFizKij)

0.05 = 0.3125
0.16

Find Trip Interchanges, {Qij}

Qij = Pipij = (2600)(0.3125) = 813

Keep in mind that the socioeconomic

factor, K, can be a matrix of value
rather than just one value

Calibration of
the Gravity Model
When we talk about calibrating the
gravity model, we are referring to
determining the numerical value c

The reason we do this is to fix the

relationship between the travel-time
factor and the inter-zonal impedance

Calibration of
the Gravity Model
Calibration is an iterative process

We first assume a value of c and then use:

Qij = Pi

Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)

Qij = Tij = Trips Volume between i & j

Fij =1 / Wcij = Friction Factor
Wij = Generalized Cost (including travel time, cost)
c = Calibration Constant

Calibration of
the Gravity Model
The results are then compared with the
observed values during the base year

If the values are sufficiently close, keep c

The results are expressed in terms of the

appropriate equation relating F and W with c

If not, then adjust c and redo the procedure

Trip-Length Frequency Distribution

Compares the observed and computed
Qij values

Gravity Model
Calibration Example
Given:
Zone 3

10

Zone 1

10
Zone 4

Zone 2
Target-Year Inter-zonal Impedances, {Wij}

15

15
Zone 5

Base-Year Trip Interchange Volumes, {tij}

5 TAZ City

Find: c and Kij to fit the base data

Relating F & W
Starting with:

1
Fij = c
W ij
Take the natural log of both sides

ln F = - c ln W
ln F

Now c is the slope of a straight

line relating ln F and ln W

ln W

Trip-Length Frequency Distribution

Target-Year Inter-zonal Impedances, {Wij}

Base-Year Trip Interchange Volumes, {tij}

Group zone pairs by max Wij

Sum Interchange Volumes for each set of zone pairs
Find f = (tix) / (tij)

First Iteration
Lets assume c = 2.0
Target-Year Inter-zonal
Impedances, {Wij}

Base-Year Trip Interchange Volumes, {tij}

Friction Factor, {Fij} with c = 2.0

1
1
Fij = c = F =
13
W ij
52

= 0.04

First Iteration
c = 2.0

Friction Factor, {Fij} with c = 2.0

Aj Fij

Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)

First Iteration
c = 2.0

Qij = Pi

Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)

Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)

Second Iteration
Lets assume c = 1.5
Target-Year Inter-zonal
Impedances, {Wij}

Base-Year Trip Interchange Volumes, {tij}

Friction Factor, {Fij} with c = 1.5

1
1
Fij = c = F =
= 0.089
13
W ij
1.5
5

Second Iteration
c = 1.5

Friction Factor, {Fij} with c = 1.5

Aj Fij

Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)

Second Iteration
c = 1.5

Qij = Pi

TAZ
1
2

3
249
151

Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)

4
132
642

Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)

]
5
120
206

500
1000

K Factors
Even after calibration, there will typically still be
discrepancies between the observed & calculated data
To fine-tune the model, some employ socioeconomic
adjustment factors, also known as K-Factors

The intent is to capture special local conditions between some

zonal pairs such as the need to cross a river

Kij = Rij

1-Xi
1 - XiRij

Rij = ratio of observed to calculated Qij (or Tij)

Xi = ratio of the base-year Qij to Pi (total productions of zone i)

K Factor Example
Rij =

Observed Qij
Calculated Qij

Xi =

Base-Year Qij
Pi

= R13 =

300
249

= 1.20

= X1 =

300
500

= 0.60

1-0.6
1-Xi
Kij = Rij
= K13 = 1.20
= 1.71
1(0.6)(1.2)
1 - XiRij

The Problem with K-Factors

Although K-Factors may improve the model
in the base year, they assume that these
special conditions will carry over to future
years and scenarios

This limits model sensitivity and undermines the

models ability to predict future travel behavior

The need for K-factors often is a symptom of

other model problems.

Additionally, the use of K-factors makes it more

difficult to figure out the real problems

Limitations of
the Gravity Model
Too much of a reliance on K-Factors in
calibration
External trips and intrazonal trips cause
difficulties
The skim table impedance factors are often too
simplistic to be realistic

Typically based solely upon vehicle travel times

At most, this might include tolls and parking costs

Almost always fails to take into account how things

such as good transit and walkable neighborhoods affect
trip distribution
No obvious connection to behavioral decision-making

Limitations of
the Gravity Model
The model fails to reflect the characteristics of the
individuals or households who decide which destinations
to choose in order to satisfy their activity needs

Zone 1
Income=75000

White Collar Jobs

Zone 3
Income=20000
Zone 2
Zone 4
Blue Collar Jobs

The gravity model does not take this type of situation

into account without using K-Factors which leads
back into another whole set of problems