ISSUES

IN
AFRICAS
POPULATIO
N
LECTURE TWO

Recap of previous
lecture
General Introduction

Rationale and objectives of the course

Basic Demographic Concepts

Todays lecture
General Features of SubSaharan African Populations
Population Patterns and
dynamics of Sub-Saharan
African Populations

Learning Objectives
At the end of the lecture, students
should be able to identify and explain
the key factors that distinguish African
populations from other populations.
Explain population patterns and their
dynamics in African populations
Fertility patterns
Mortality patterns
Migration patterns

Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa as a geographical
term refers to the area of the African
continent which lies south of the Sahara.
Demographically, all countries of Africa
except the northern African countries of
Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia
and Western Sahara.

What is the demographic

status of DR Congo and
Guinea

 Sizes
Compositions
Distributions
Densities

Growth

Fertility
Mortality
Migration
Sex
Age
Occupation
Income levels

The general features of

sub-Saharan Africa
A predominantly black race
The poorest region of the world, and
contains of the Least Developed
Countries (LDC) of the world
Worlds fastest growing population

Features
Concentration of population in
countries and geographical areas
that are rich with natural resources
or have better economic
opportunities.

Patterns and Trends of the

Population
of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
The patterns and trends of any population
depends on its three components:
1. Fertility
2. Mortality
3. Migration

 The processes of the three components are

determined by
biological/natural,
social
cultural factors

This results in different patterns (way of movement) and

trends (prevailing tendency) of population over time
and space

Population Patterns and

Trends in SSA
SSA has a total population of 865 million
in 2010
The most populous countries are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

Nigeria 158.3 m
Ethiopia 85.0 m
Congo DR
67.8 m
South Africa
49.9 m
Tanzania
45 m
Kenya
40 m
Uganda 33.4 m
Ghana 24 m

 Africas population will reach 1.2 b in

2025 and 2b in 2050 when its share
of total world population will be 29%
compared with 9% in 1950.
Does Africa have the resources to
meet the needs of the additional
population?

 Economic growth rate has to be three

times that of population growth for any
country to be able to experience
economic development. For example,
economic growth rate must be 9% if
population growth rate is 3% per annum.
So the inequality can be used to explain
Africas underdevelopment.

 But there is evidence from research

and other sources which indicate
that population is not the only
factor responsible for the lack of
development or poverty in Africa.

Population Patterns and

Trends in SSA
Children (< 15 years) formed between 45
and 50% of total national populations in
most SSA countries until the last decade
Presently children (< 15 years) form 43% of
the population of SSA

 The percentage of the population of

SSA aged 65+ years is presently 3%.
SSA has a young population with
potential of growing fast into the
future; it has population momentum
A major implication is the need to
provide health and educational
infrastructure and services for children
and the young people in SSA

Population momentum
Population momentumrefers
topopulation growthat the national
level which would occur even if levels
of childbearing immediately declined
to replacement level.

 For countries with abovereplacement fertility (greater than

2.1 children per woman), population
momentum represents natural
increase to the population.
For below-replacement countries,
momentum corresponds to continued
population decline.

 With respect to high-fertility

countries in the developing world,
population momentum instructs us
that these countries will continue to
grow despite large and rapid declines
in fertility.

 Second with respect to lowest-low fertility

countries in Europe, momentum implies that
these countries may experience population
decline even if they bring their fertility levels
up to replacement.
In fact, population momentum can become
negative if fertility rates are under
replacement for long enough; in coming
decades, for example, some Eastern
European countries would show population
shrinkage even if their birth rates recovered
to replacement level.

1. Fertility Patterns and

Trends in SSA
Until the late 1980s most SSA countries had
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) between 6 and 8 and
CBR between 40 and 50 per thousand
population.
In 2010, TFR ranges from 2 to 7 in the region;
In 2013, TFR is 5.2 in SSA
Ghanas TFR in 2013 is 4.2

In 2013, CBR is 39 per thousand population for SSA

GH is 33/1000

 Teenage pregnancy or early childbearing is

hugely prevalent in SSA because of low
level of school enrolment rate and high rate
of school drop-out rate among girls.

In Ghana, for example, 13% of all girls

aged 15-19 years have begun childbearing,
according to the 2008 GDHS; the
percentage is 30.9% among those with no
formal education and 1.3% among those
with secondary education
Note therefore formal education reduces
early childbearing

 More investment in formal education

up to secondary school level,
especially for girls, can reduce
fertility and rapid population growth
rate further.

2. Mortality Patterns and

Trends in SSA
Mortality levels have declined in SSA
over the past four decades.
The rate of decline slowed down during
the last decade in many countries due
mainly to economic crisis, increasing
poverty, and other factors.
Infant, Child and Maternal Mortality are
the major health problems facing SSA

 IMR (2013),
73 per thousand in SSA
48/1000 for all Less Developed Countries
(LDCs)
5/1000 for More Developed Countries (MDCs)

HIV/AIDS is also a major health problem

in Africa
In 2013
4.9% in SSA, 0.4% in MDCs

HIV/AIDS in Africa
SSA has the greatest burden of
HIV/AIDS
The burden of HIV/AIDS is greatest in
Eastern and Southern Africa
Some SSA countries have more than
20% of their adult population aged 1549 years living with HIV/AIDS:
Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland

 Non-communicable diseases
have also posed a serious
problem to most economies in
SSA.

SSAs Distinctive Population

Features I
SSAs population features are distinct,
compared to the rest of the world:

All major world regions have

experienced
Demographic Transition
(fertility and
mortality decline)
But many sub-Saharan African
countries still have high fertility
levels
TFR is still well above 5.0 in many
sub-Saharan African countries

 However, a few countries (Ghana,

Kenya, Zimbabwe, South Africa,
etc) have experienced decline in
their fertility levels.
Ghanas TFR dropped from 6.4 at
the 1988 GDHS to 4.0 (2008
GDHS).

 SSA has also experienced appreciable

drop in mortality levels but the
decline has not been impressive in
recent times in many countries
Some countries experienced reversals
in
mortality decline
Some countries had reversals and
then decline again, eg. Ghana.

 Many factors are responsible for

changes in the rate of mortality decline.
Findings of some studies show:
Womens maternal and occupational role
conflicts account for inadequate care for
children
The consequent high levels of
malnutrition,
morbidity and mortality

SSAs Distinctive Population

Features II
Fertility decline begun to be observed in SSA
about two decades ago
A number of factors are associated with the
decline:
Maternal education
Modern contraception
Modernization, particularly urbanization and increasing
standard of living and socio-cultural transformation
Cost of schooling for children
Economic hardship
But the population features of SSA are still different from
those of the More Developed Countries (MDCs)

Population Patterns and

Trends in MDCs
In 2013 average Total Fertility Rate
(TFR) is 1.6 in MDCs and 3.0 in the Less
Developed Countries (LDCs)
Low birth rates is a problem in many
MDCs

 Most MDCs have cylindrical population

pyramids with population trends that
show possibility of population decline
Countries in SSA have broad-based
population pyramids, indicating that
they have population momentum and
potential to grow even when
replacement level fertility is attained

 Some MDCs have aging population

problems eg. France, Spain, and Northern
Italy have 24% of their population aged
65+ years; they have many aged people
who need to be cared for
Population decline will continue in MDCs
and by 2050 the developed world will
have only 14% of the total world
population compared to 19% in 2007
The populations of MDCs are old while
those of SSA countries are young

Most populous countries

Country

1
2
3

4
5
6
7
8
9

China
India
United
states
Indonesia
Brazil
Pakistan
Nigeria
Bangladesh

2011
Population
(millions)

2013
Population
(millions)

1,436
1,241
312

1,357
1,277
316

238
197
177
162
151

249
196
191
174
157

Most populous 2050

Country
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

India
China
Nigeria
United states
Pakistan
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Brazil
Ethiopia
Philippines

Population ( millions)

1,692
1,313
433
423
314
309
226
223
174
150

Countries with the youngest

population 2011.
Country

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Niger
Uganda
Mali
Angola
Zambia
Burundi
Congo, dem.rep.
Mozambique
Chad
Burkina Faso

% ages < 15

48.9
48.3
47,6
47.3
46.5
46.3
46.0
45.3
45.3
45.2

Countries with the oldest

population, 2011
Oldest

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1

Japan
Germany
Italy
Greece
Sweden
Portugal
Bulgaria
Austria
Finland
Latvia

% ages 65+

23.2
20.7
20.2
18.9
18.5
17.9
17.7
17.6
17.5
17.4

Population clock 2011

World
Population

Births per

Deaths per
Natural
increase
(birthsdeaths) per

Infants
deaths per

MDC

6,986,951,00 1,241,580,
0
000

LDC
5,745,371.000

Year

139,558,000

14,070,000 125,488,000

day

382,351

38,548

343,803

minute

266

27

239

year

56,611,000

12,201,000 44,410,000

day

155,,099

33,427

121,671

minute

108

23

84

year

82,947,000

1,869,000

81,078,000

day

227,252

5,121

222,132

minute

158

154

year

6,078,000

77,000

6,001,000

day

16,652

211

16,441

12

0.1

11

minute

Population clock 2013

WORLD POPULATION
POP MID2011
(MILLIONS
)

BIRTHS
PER 1,000
POPULATI
ON

DEATHS
PER
1,000
POPULATI
ON

RATE OF
NATURAL
INCREAS
E%

WORLD

6,987

20

1.2

MORE
DEV.

1,242

11

10

0.2

LESS
DEV.

5,745

22

1.4

-1

LESS DEV
(EXCL.CH
INA)

4,400

25

1.7

-1

861

35

11

2.4

-1

1,051

36

12

2,4

-1

SUB-SAH,
AFRICA

883

38

13

2.6

-1

N.

213

25

1.8

-1

LEAST
DEV
AFRICA

NET
MIGRATION
RATE PER
1,000

WORLD POPULATION
PROJECTED POPULATION
(MILLION)
MID 2025

MID-2050

2050
POPULATION
AS A
MULTIPLE OF
2011

WORLD

8,084

9,587

1.4

MORE DEV.

1,290

1,333

1.1

LESS DEV.

6,794

8,254

1.4

LESS DEV. (EXCL. CHINA)

5,390

6,942

1.6

LEAST DEV.

1,176

1,826

2.1

AFRICA

1,444

2,300

2.2

SUB-SAH.AFRICA

1,245

2,069

2.3

N. AFRICA

261

323

1.5

WORLD POPULATION
INFANT
TOTAL
MORTALITY FERTILITY RATES
RATES

PERCENTAGE OF
POPULATION(AGES
)
< 15

65+

WORLD

44

2.5

27

MORE DEV.

1.7

16

16

LESS DEV.

48

2.6

29

LESS DEV. (EXCL.

CHINA)

52

3.0

33

LEAST DEV.

76

4.5

41

AFRICA

74

4.7

41

SUB-SAH.
AFRICA

80

5.2

43

N. AFRICA

33

2.9

31

WORLD POPULATION
LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH
(YEAR)

PERCENT
URBAN

BOTH SEXES

MALE

FEMALE

WORLD

70

68

72

51

MORE DEV.

78

74

81

75

LESS DEV

68

66

70

46

LESS DEV. (EXCL.

CHINA)

66

64

68

44

LEAST DEV

59

57

60

28

AFRICA

58

56

59

37

SUB- SAH. AFRICA

55

53

56

37

N. AFRICA

71

69

73

51

HIV
PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION WITH HIV/ AIDS
( 15-49)
2001

2009

WORLD

0.8

0.8

MORE
DEVELOPED

0.3

0.4

LESS DEVELOPED

0.9

LESS DEV. (EXCL.

CHINA)

1.4

1.2

LEAST
DEVELOPED

2.7

2.5

AFRICA

4.8

4.3

SUB-SAHARAN
AFRICA

5.9

5.0

NORTHERN
AFRICA

0.1

0.3

CONTRACEPTIVE USE AMONG

MARRIED WOMEN

PERCENTAGE OF MARRIED WOMEN 15-49

USING CONTRACETION.
ALL METHODS

MODERN METHODS

WORLD

61

55

MORE DEVELOPED

72

62

LESS DEVELOPED

59

54

LESS DEV. (EXCL. CHINA)

51

44

LEAST DEVELOPED

29

25

AFRICA

29

25

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

23

19

NORTHERN AFRICA

49

43

Recap of lecture
Patterns and trends of SSA populations
Fertility patterns
Mortality patterns
Migration

SSA populations
A predominantly black race
The poorest region of the world, and contains of
the Least Developed Countries (LDC) of the world
Fast unprecedented growth rate
Worlds fastest growing population
Concentration of population in countries and
geographical areas that are rich with natural
resources or have better economic opportunities.

 Distinguishing features of SSA populations

children (< 15 years) form 43% of the population of SSA

the population of SSA aged 65+ years is presently 3%
it has population momentum
implication on the need to provide health and
educational infrastructure and services for children and
the young people

High fertility
TFR ranges from 2 to 7 in the region
CBR is 39 per thousand population
Teenage pregnancy or early childbearing is hugely prevalent

General Mortality declines

Infant, Child and Maternal Mortality - major health problems
IMR in sSA 81 per thousand live births in 2010; 50 for all LDCs; and 6 for
MDCs.

Next lecture
Migration and urbanisation

 Most of the facts and figures from

2013 World Population

Data Sheet