Acceptance Sampling and

Statistical Process Control

Probability Review
Permutations (order matters)

Number of permutations of n objects taken x

at a time
n

Px

n!

(n x)!
2

Probability Review
Permutations (cont.)

Example: Number of permutations of 3

letters (A, B, C) taken 2 at a time
(A,B,C) AB, BA, AC, CA, BC, CB

3!
3!

6
3 P2
(3 2)!
1!
3

Probability Review
Combinations (order does not matter)

Number of combinations of n objects taken x

at a time

Cx

n!

x!(n x)!

Probability Review

(cont.)

Combinations

Example: Number of combinations of 3

letters (A, B, C) taken 2 at a time
(A, B, C) = AB, AC, BC

3!
3!
6

3
2!(3 2)!
2!1!
2
5

Probability Review
Binomial Distribution

Sum of a series of independent, identically distributed

Bernoulli random variables
Probability of x defectives in n items
p = probability of success (usually determined from
long-term process average)
1-p = probability of failure

n x
nx
P(x) p (1 p) ; x 0,1,2,..., n
x

Probability Review
Binomial Distribution (cont.)

Example: What is the probability of 2

defectives in 4 items if p = 0.20?

4
2
2
P(2) (0.20) (0.80) 0.1536
2
7

Probability Review

Binomial Distribution Exercises

Probability Review
Hypergeometric Distribution

Random sample of size n selected from N items,

where D of the N items are defective
Probability of finding r defectives in a sample of size n
from a lot of size N

P(r)

N D

nr
N

n
9

Probability Review
Hypergeometric Distribution (cont.)

Example: What is the probability of finding 0

defects in 10 items taken from a lot of size
100 containing 4 defects?
4 96

0 10

P(0)
100

10

0.652

10

Probability Review

Hypergeometric Distribution Exercises

11

Probability Review

Binomial Approximation of Hypergeometric

Use when n/N 0.10

P ~ D/N
Example: What is the probability of finding 0 defects
in 10 items selected from a lot of size 100 containing
40 defects?

10
(0.40) 0 (0.60)10 0.665
P(0)
0

We got 0.652 from the straight hypergeometric.

12

Probability Review

Poisson Distribution (to approximate Binomial)

Use when n20 and p0.05
=np (average number of defects)
e x
P(x)
; x 0,1,2,...
x!
Example: What is the probability of finding 2 defects
in 4 items if p = 0.20?

e 0.8 (0.8) 2
P(2)
0.1438
2!

We got 0.1536 with the straight Binomial.

13

Acceptance Sampling

Definition: process of accepting or rejecting a

lot by inspecting a sample selected according to
a predetermined sampling plan

Notation:

N
n
c
p

=
=
=
=

batch size
sample size
acceptance number
proportion defective (known or
long-term average)
Pa = probability that a batch will be
accepted
14

 and Risks

Type I Error: rejecting an acceptable lot (a.k.a.

producers risk)
P(Type I Error) =

Type II Error: accepting an unacceptable lot

(a.k.a. consumers risk)
P(Type II Error) =
15

Operating Characteristic (OC)

Curves

OC Curves characterize acceptance sampling

plans.

OC Curves are complete plotting of Pa for a lot

at all possible values of p.

16

OC Curves

Steepness of OC curves indicates the

power of the acceptance sampling plans
to distinguish good lots from bad lots.
Power

= 1-P(accepting lot | p)
= P(rejecting lot | p)

For large values of p (i.e., large number of

defects), we want the Power to be large
(i.e., close to 1).
17

OC Curves

Type A OC Curve

Uses known value for p (i.e., lot composition is

known)
Can use hypergeometric distribution

Type B OC Curve

Uses process average for p

Can use binomial distribution

18

Acceptance Sampling Plans

Considerations:

-risk

-risk

Acceptable Quality Level (AQL)

Lot Tolerance Percent Defective (LTPD)

19

Acceptance Sampling Plans

Acceptable Quality Level (AQL)

Maximum percent defective that is acceptable

= P(rejecting lot | p = AQL)

Corresponds to higher Pa (left-hand side of OC

Curve)

Lot Tolerance Percent Defective (LTPD)

Worst quality that is acceptable (accepted with low

probability)
= P(accepting lot | p = LTPD)

Corresponds to lower Pa (right-hand side of OC

Curve)
20

Acceptance Sampling Plans

Single Sampling

Take a single sample from the lot for inspection

Quality of sampled work determines lot decision

Double Sampling

One small sample from the lot for inspection

If quality of first sample is acceptable, that sample
determines lot decision
If quality of first sample is unacceptable or not clear,
select a second small sample to make lot decision
21

Acceptance Sampling Plans

Single-Sampling vs. Double-Sampling Plans

Either plan can satisfy AQL and LTPD

requirements

Double sampling often results in smaller total

sample sizes

Double sampling can increase cost if second

sample is required often

Psychological advantage to double sampling

(second chance)
22

Inspection

Inspection involves verifying the quality of a

work unit.

Most inspection includes rectification of errors

found.

Rectification:

100% of defective work units are repaired or replaced

Rejected lots are 100% verified and rectified

Verifiers should have higher level of

understanding to establish confidence in the
inspection/rectification process.
23

Average Outgoing Quality

Average Outgoing Quality (AOQ) = proportion
defective after inspection and rectification

AOQ curve relates outgoing quality to incoming

quality

(N n) p Pa
AOQ
N

Average Outgoing Quality Level (AOQL) = point

where outgoing quality is worst

Maximum AOQ over all possible values of p

24

Average Outgoing Quality Level

n
(1
)
N y
AOQL
n
(Table 1 provides values of y for c = 0,1,2,,40)
For small sampling fractions,

y
AOQL
n
25

Average Outgoing Quality Level

Determining sample size for desired outgoing
quality (AOQL):

Given desired AOQL

Given desired acceptable number of defects, c
Given y-value from Table 1 for desired c

y
n
AOQL

26

Average Outgoing Quality Level

Determining AOQL for known sample size and
desired acceptable number of rejects, c:

Given sample size, n

Given desired c-value
Given y-value from Table 1 for desired c-value

y
AOQL
n

Adjust c-value and n to manipulate the AOQL

27

Additional Acceptance Sampling

Terminology
Average Sample Number (ASN)

Average number of sample units inspected to reach

lot decision
In single-sampling plan: ASN = n
In double-sampling plan: n1 ASN n1 + n2

28

Additional Acceptance Sampling

Terminology

Average Total Inspection (ATI):

Average number of units inspected per lot

In single-sampling plan: n ATI N
ATI = n + (1-Pa)(N-n)

Better incoming quality less inspection

29

Additional Acceptance Sampling

Terminology

Average Fraction Inspected (AFI):

Average fraction of units inspected per lot

AFI = ATI/N
In single-sampling plan: n/N AFI 1

30

Acceptance Sampling

Acceptance Sampling Plan Exercise

31

Other Sampling Plans

Continuous Sampling

Not possible to use lots/batches

Level of inspection depends on perceived quality
level

Continuous Sampling Plan 1 (CSP1)

Start at 100% inspection

After i consecutive non-defectives, go to sample
inspection
Go back to 100% inspection when a defective is
found
32

Other Sampling Plans

Chain Sampling

Like standard sampling plans with c=0

However, allow 1 defect in a lot if previous i lots were
defective-free
Useful for small lots where c=0 is required

Skip-Lot Sampling

Lot-based continuous sampling

Lots inspected 100% until i lots are defective-free,
then go to sample inspection of lots
33

Acceptance Sampling Trade-Off

Sampling Fraction vs. Acceptance Criteria

Assuming a set quality level (AOQL), we can

make choices regarding inspection rates and
acceptance criteria

To decrease inspection rate, we must tighten

acceptance criteria

To allow more defects, we must increase

sample size
34

Acceptance Sampling Trade-Off

Example: Desired AOQL = 5%,

Batch Size 1-800 items

25% inspection accept if 6 or fewer defects

in a sample of size 60

10% inspection accept if 5 or fewer defects

in a sample of size 60

See Tables 1 and 2

35

Creating Work Units

Homogeneity

Alike items within a batch

Helps to keep samples representative

Batch Size

Rule-of-thumb: to 1 day of work

Very small batch frequent QC, more paperwork
Very large batch delayed feedback, higher rework
risk
36

Sample Selection
Important for sample selection to be
completely random

Random Number Table

Number batch items 1 through N

Select random point in random number table

Use next n numbers in the table as the batch

items to select
37

Sample Selection
Systematic Sampling

Select a random start between 1 and 10

Select every xth item until n items are selected

38

U.S. Census Bureau Applications

Address Canvassing

Three random starts within listing pages

One random start provides start for check of
total listings
Two random starts provide start for check of
added housing units and deleted housing units
No errors allowed
QA form example from upcoming 2004 Census
Test
39

U.S. Census Bureau Applications

Review of Map Improvement Files
Select

map features for QC review

Acceptance Sampling plan
Global

AQL requirement
Sample size dependent on batch size
Acceptance number dependent on sample size
Uses

stratified sampling

40

U.S. Census Bureau Applications

0 to 10,000 HIDs
AQL = 4%

Sample = 200 HIDs

Acceptance Number = 14

Matched

Unmatched

Added

Road
Water
Other

10,001 to 500,000 HIDs

AQL = 4%

Sample = 315 HIDs

Acceptance Number = 21

Matched

Unmatched

Added

Road
Water
Other

41

Process Control

Allows us to plan quality into our

processes

Spend fewer resources on inspection and

rework

Observe processes, collect samples,

measure quality, determine if the process
produces acceptable results
42

Process Control
Stresses prevention over inspection
Traditional approach to QC:

Most resources spent on inspection and

rework

Process Control approach to QC:

Most resources spent on prevention with

relatively little spent on inspection and rework
Lower overall cost
43

Sources of Variation
Random Sources

Cause of variation is common or

unassignable

Process is still in control

Difficult or impossible to eliminate

Requires modification to the process itself

44

Sources of Variation
Non-Random Sources

Cause of variation is special and assignable

Could be difficult to eliminate

Causes process to be out of control

Can address the specific cause of the

variation
45

Sources of Variation
Diagnosing non-random variation

2-out-of-3 if two out of three consecutive

points are out of control

4-out-of-5 if four out of five consecutive

points are out of control

7 successive if seven consecutive points

are on one side of the process average
46

Control Charts

Graphical device for assessing statistical

control

Plots data from a process in time order

Three reference lines:

Upper Limit

Center Line (CL)

Lower Limit
47

Control Charts

CL represents the process average

Upper and lower limits represent the

region the process moves in under
random variation

48

Control Charts
Control chart limits can be Control Limits or
Specification Limits

Control Limits: based on quality capability of

the process

Control limits traditionally set at 3 standard

deviations away from the CL

Specification Limits: based on quality goal

49

Control Charts

Example: Chemical process with

assumed concentration of 3%, desired
concentration 3.2% and 2.8%

Specification Limits: LSL = 2.8, USL = 3.2

Control Limits: LCL = 2.5, UCL = 3.5 (based

on true capability of process)
50

Control Charts

A process is considered to be in control if

the process data move randomly between
the upper and lower limits

51

Control Charts
Time for Enumerating Blocks

14
UCL

Hours to E num erate Block

12

10

8
CL
6

2
LCL
0
1

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

Day

52

Control Charts

Examples:

Process: enumerator canvassing a block

Measure: hours to canvass the block

Is the process in statistical control?

53

Control Charts

The process data in time order move

randomly inside the control limits

Therefore, the process IS in statistical

control

54

Control Charts
Time for Enumerating Blocks
14

12

H o u rs to E n u m e ra te

10

8
UCL

CL
4

2
LCL
0
1

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

Day

55

Control Charts
Some points above the UCL
Therefore, process IS NOT in statistical
control
Might be hard-to-enumerate blocks
(special cause)
Field supervisor might want to send a
more experienced lister to canvass those
blocks

56

Control Charts
T ime to Enumerate Blocks
25

H o u r s to E n u m e ra te B l o c k

20

15
UCL

10

CL

LCL
0
1

11

13
Day

15

17

19

21

23

25

57

Control Charts

Process has definite upward trend

Therefore, process IS NOT in statistical

control

Perhaps lister has forgotten proper

techniques (special cause)

Field supervisor might want to consider

re-training the lister
58

Control Charts
Time to Enumerate Blocks
14
UCL

H o u r s to E n u m e ra te B l o c k s

12

10

8
CL

2
LCL

0
1

11

13
Day

15

17

19

21

23

25

59

Control Charts

Sometimes, patterns are hard to see

This example seems to show a random

distribution of points

However, look what happens when we

connect the points:
60

Control Charts
Time to Enumerate Blocks
14
UCL

12

H o u rs to E n u m e ra te

10

8
CL

2
LCL

0
1

11

13
Day

15

17

19

21

23

25

61

Control Charts

The points are all inside the control limits

So, the process IS in statistical control

However, there is a definite cyclical

pattern

These types of patterns are not random

and should be investigated
62

Control Charts

Control Chart Exercises

63