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Overview
Mega Projects by their very nature consist of smaller individual projects that integrate
together to form a whole.
In a similar fashion the estimate for such a project also comes from a multitude of diverse
disciplines with differing sources and work practices.
This paper will use a case study to show how a risk model for the Cost Estimate was built
in Palisade @Risk to identify appropriate levels of Contingency and Management
Reserve.
Inputs to the model were taken from a variety of sources including
Control Estimate
Systemic risk models
Quantitative schedule risk models
Risk ranging workshops
Various risk registers
Consequence
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Low
5A
4A
3A
2A
1A
5B
4B
3B
2B
1B
Likelihood of Occurrence
Medium
High
5C
4C
3C
2C
1C
5D
4D
3D
2D
1D
Very High
5E
4E
3E
2E
1E
Risk Triangle
Most Popular distribution to show Most
Likely value tapering to a Min and
Max
Risk Trigen
Modification of Triangle
Allows for a finite probability of
achieving Min & Max Values
Fundamental
Flaw of Triangle
and Trigen is
when the
distribution is
skewed
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Most Likely = 5
Mean = 6.5
P50= 6.16
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12
Probability Density
Random Variable x
b
Most Likely = 5
Mean = 6.5
P50= 5.0
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F1
F2
Urun
Min
1-Urun
ML
Max
F1= 2*Urun/Min
F2= 2*(1-Urun)/Max
RF=1+RiskGeneral(Min,Max,{0,0},F1:F2,RiskStatic(0))
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Schedule Risk
Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis
Husky uses Primavera P6 to schedule all
projects greater than $5MM. Oracle
Primavera Risk, formerly known as
Pertmaster, is used for quantitative
schedule risk analysis (QSRA)
To bring in the cost element of schedule
delay, the results of the QSRA were
brought into the cost model as a set of
percentiles days delay from P0 to P100.
Use of the @Risk Fit Manager was used to
fit the best curve to this profile, with
options set to update the curve each
simulation. This simplified the update
process each time the schedule model
changed.
The schedule @Risk function was then
multiplied by another @Risk function that
represented the uncertainty in cost per
day to give an effective cost for schedule
slippage
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
25-Feb-13
07-May-13
23-May-13
04-Jun-13
13-Jun-13
21-Jun-13
28-Jun-13
05-Jul-13
11-Jul-13
17-Jul-13
22-Jul-13
28-Jul-13
02-Aug-13
09-Aug-13
16-Aug-13
23-Aug-13
01-Sep-13
11-Sep-13
24-Sep-13
12-Oct-13
24-Dec-13
-122
-51
-35
-23
-14
-6
1
8
14
20
25
31
36
43
50
57
66
76
89
107
180
=RiskLoglogistic(-1063,1088.2,38.361, RiskFit("Schedule","RMSErr"),
RiskName("Schedule"), RiskStatic(0))
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18
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Risk Results
Summary Results
Individual Risk models were established on separate MSExcel sheets and outputs
summarised on tabular results sheet
Extensive use made of the @Risk function RiskPercentile to provide tabular output that
could be copied and pasted direct into reports
Note the values in the above table are for a fictitious project
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Summary
The cost risk model built in @Risk used a variety of techniques to both represent
uncertainty from ranging workshops and from other studies. Highlights include:
Use of the RiskGeneral function to mimic the Double Triangular Distribution
recommended by AACE for range estimating
Use of the Fit Manager to replicate output from other models as input to the overall risk
model, in particular:
- Results from a quantitative schedule risk analysis
- Results from systemic parametric risk analysis
- Automatic recalculation of the curve fit on change of input data
Use of RiskPercentile and other output functions to provide templated report formats
that can be copied and pasted direct into presentational materials
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Any Questions
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