 The concept of probability developed in a very

strange manner .In 1654,a gambler chevalier de mere

,approached the well – known 17th century French
philosopher & mathematician Blaise Pascal
regarding certain dice problems . Pascal became
interested in these problems , studied them and
discussed them with another French mathematician ,
Pierre de Fermat . Both Pascal & Fermat solved the
problems independently . This work was the
beginning of probability Theory


 Probability theory is the branch

of mathematics concerned with analysis
of random phenomena. The central objects of
probability theory are random variables, stochastic
processes, and events: mathematical abstractions
of non-deterministic events or measured quantities
that may either be single occurrences or evolve over
time in an apparently random fashion. Although an
individual coin toss or the roll of a die is a random
event, if repeated many times the sequence of random
events will exhibit certain statistical patterns, which
can be studied and predicted. Two representative
mathematical results describing such patterns are
the law of large numbers and the central limit
theorem.
BLAISE PASCAL PIERRE DE FERMAT
 Blaise Pascal (French pronunciation: (b. 1623-
06-19 in Clermont-Ferrand, France, d. 1662-08-19
in Paris) was a French mathematician, physicist,
and religious philosopher. He was a child
prodigy who was educated by his father, a civil
servant. Pascal's earliest work was in the natural
and applied sciences where he made important
contributions to the construction of
mechanical calculators, the probability the study of
fluids, and clarified the concepts
of pressure and vacuum by generalizing the work
of Evangelista Torricelli. Pascal also wrote in
defense of the scientific method.
 Pierre de Fermat 17 August 1601 or 1607/8 – 12 January
1665) was a French lawyer at the Parliament of Toulouse,
France, and an amateur mathematician who is given credit
for early developments that led to modern calculus. In
particular, he is recognized for his discovery of an original
method of finding the greatest and the smallest ordinates of
curved lines, which is analogous to that of the then
unknown differential calculus, as well as his research into
the theory of numbers. He made notable contributions
to analytic geometry, probability, and optics. He is best
known for Fermat's Last Theorem, which he described in a
note at the margin of a copy of Diaphanous' Arithmetical.
 1.
The probability of an event A occurring is
the number of outcomes that result in A
divided by the total number of possible
outcomes.
2. The probability of an event occurring plus
the probability of the event not occurring
equals 1.
3. The probability of event A AND event B
occurring is the probability of event A times
the probability of event B given that event A
has already occurred.
 4. The probability of event A OR event B occurring
is the probability of event A occurring plus the
probability of event B occurring minus the
probability of both events occurring.
 The probability of an event A occurring is the
number of outcomes that result in A divided by the
total number of possible outcomes.
 Example: Raphael tosses a fair coin. What is the probability
the coin will come up heads?

Probability of heads = [heads]/[heads, tails]

Probability of heads = 1/2

Example: Tom rolls a fair die. What is the probability that the
die will roll an even number?

Probability of even number = [2, 4, 6]/[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

Probability of even number = 3/6
Probability of even number = ½
 The probability of an event occurring plus the
probability of the event not occurring equals 1.
In other words, we can say with 100% certainty that an
event will either occur or not occur. For instance, the
probability of a fair, six-sided die rolling a 4 is 1/6. The
probability of the die not landing on 4 is (1 - 1/6) or 5/6.
1/6 + 5/6 = 1.
This concept can be very helpful on the GMAT.
Sometimes it is easier to determine the probability of an
event not occurring than determining the probability of an
event occurring. Once your know the probability of an
event not occurring, you can subtract the probability from
1 to find the probability of an event occurring.
 The probability of event A AND event B
occurring is the probability of event A times the
probability of event B given that event A has
already occurred.
Example: Joseph rolls two fair, six-sided die.
What is the probability that both die will roll a
6?
Probability of 1st die coming up 6: 1/6
Probability of 2nd die coming up 6: 1/6
Probability of both die coming up 6: (1/6) * (1/6)
Probability of both die coming up 6: 1/36
 The probability of event A OR event B occurring is
the probability of event A occurring plus the
probability of event B occurring minus the
probability of both events occurring.
Example: Charles rolls a fair, six-sided die. What is
the probability of Charles rolling a 2 or a 4?
Probability of 2: 1/6
Probability of 4: 1/6
Probability of a 2 or 4: 1/6 + 1/6
Probability of a 2 or 4: 2/6
Probability of a 2 or 4: 1/3
 A certain deck of cards contains 2 blue cards, 2
red cards, 2 yellow cards, and 2 green cards. If two
cards are randomly drawn from the deck, what is
the probability that they will both are not blue?

 A. 15/28
 B. 1/4
 C. 9/16
 D. 1/32
 E. 1/16
 ANS B 1/4
 Which of these numbers cannot be a
probability?

1. 0.5
2.1.001
3.0
4. 1
ANS 2 1.001
A probability is always greater than or equal to 0
and less than or equal to 1, hence 2) above
cannot represent probabilities 1.001 is greater
than 1.
 Question 4: Two dice are rolled, find the probability that
the sum is
a) equal to 1
b) equal to 4
c) less than 13
 Solution to Question 4:

 a) The sample space S of two dice is shown below.

S = { (1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6)
(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6)
(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6)
(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6)
(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6)
(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6) }
 Let E be the event "sum equal to 1". There are no
outcomes which correspond to a sum equal to 1, hence
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 0 / 36 = 0

 b) Three possible ouctcomes give a sum equal to 4: E =

{(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)}, hence.
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 36 = 1 / 12

 c) All possible ouctcomes, E = S, give a sum less than

13, hence.
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 36 / 36 = 1
 A die is rolled, find the probability that an even number is
obtained.
 Solution to Question 1:

 Let us first write the sample space S of the experiment.

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

 Let E be the event "an even number is obtained" and

write it down.
E = {2,4,6}

 We now use the formula of the classical probability.

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 6 = 1 / 2 ans