Akshay Store

Group 4

INTRODUCTION
Forecasting the Demand of
perishable goods available in
Akshay Store
Group 3

INTRODUCTION
Forecasting the Demand of perishable
goods available in Akshay Store
Demand forecasting is the study dedicated to
understand consumers demand for goods or services.
Knowledge of fluctuating demand is useful for supplier
to know the right amount of stock to keep for future
operations.
Underestimated forecast will result in sales loss due
to the lack of supply of goods.
Overestimated forecast will result in a surplus that
will monetary drain

Group 4

AKSHAY STORE

BITS staff and students run a network of shops

under "BITS Consumers' Cooperative Stores Ltd."
(BITS Coop).
The membership of this is open to all the staff and
students of the Institute.
The `BITS Coop' supplies provisions, vegetables,
general merchandise as well as books, stationery,
etc. "Akshay", a BITS Coop enterprise, providing
Stationery and general merchandise
kept open till 10.00 p.m. for the convenience of the
staff and student community.
Group 4

WHY?
Primarily,

the purpose of the report is to help

Akshay forecast their vegetable sales so that
the various operations involved in the
procurement of these perishable goods can be
optimized.
Secondly, lower wastage and loss reduction.
Thirdly, the purpose was to identify any way to
increase the profits of AKSHAY vegetable store
through forecasting.

Group 4

SCOPE OF THE PROJECT

The

scope of this report is to identify the

seasonal and non seasonal pattern of
vegetable consumption in BITS Coop,
thereby forecast the demand.
This forecast would help in a smooth flow
of perishable goods throughout the year.
This study is limited to perishable goods
eSelling Priceecially Vegetables and not
the grocery or the main segment of the
departmental store.
Group 4

DATA ANALYSIS

Group 3

DATA ANALYSIS
600

500

400

300
Qty ALU
200

Linear (Qty ALU)

f(x) = 0.07x + 161.85

SP ALU

100

Group 4

CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF POTATO

Quantity
POTATO
Quantity
POTATO
Selling Price of
POTATO

Selling Price of
POTATO

1
-0.29992

1
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REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF
POTATO

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ANALYSIS OF POTATO
Slope

for the trend line is .0697 which suggest

that there is a very minor increase in quantity
sold with time. May be because of the fixed
population at the BITS campus.
Also there is no trend in selling price for POTATO
hence price are preety consistent this year.
The correlation analysis shows that the Selling
Price and Quantity sold are negatively
correlated.
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ANALYSIS OF POTATO
(CONTINUED..)
The

regression analysis shows the adjusted R

as 8% which is a very small value showing that
there are many other factors which explains
the quantity sold except price.
Regression equation be:
Q=240.27-3.6(S.P)
Hence an increase of 1 R.s will decrease the
sale of POTATO by 3 kgs.
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Moving Average.
3000

2500

2000
M.AVG.
1500

1000

500

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

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ANALYSIS ONION
Quantity ONION
3500

3000

2500

2000

Qty PYAZ

1500

1000

500

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

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Moving Average.
3000

2500

2000
M.AVG.
1500

1000

500

0
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

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CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF PYAAZ

Quantity Pyaaz

Quantity Pyaaz
Selling Price of
Pyaaz

Selling Price of
Pyaaz

1
-0.01141

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF PYAAZ

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ANALYSIS PYAAZ
The forecasted value of ONION of January coming to
be 2523.61 which is at a higher side which can also
be seen from the smoothened curve.
The correlation coefficient coming to be -.01 which
shows that Selling Price and Quantity are negatively
correlated.
From regression analysis we see that the R square
and the adjusted R square are quite less and hence
there are other factors on which the quantity
depends than Selling Price
The Regression equation be :
Q=93.48-.083*Selling Price
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Analysis POTATO&ONION
The

affect on quantity of ONION was analysed

with the change in selling price of ONION and
the sales of POTATO.

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CORRELATION ANALYSIS
Quantity
ONION
Quantity
ONION

Selling Price
ONION

Quantity
POTATO

Selling Price
ONION

-0.01141

Quantity
POTATO

-0.00674

-0.01749

1
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REGRESSION ANALYSIS

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CONCLUSION
We

see that there is an increase in adjusted R

square value hence the sale of ONION depends
on both SP of ONION and Sale of POTATO.
Also the SSE has increased by adding another
factor in the independent variable.
Correlation analysis also suggests that the
quantity of POTATO and quantity of ONION are
negatively correlated i.e. sale of one inhibits
the sale of another.
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Group 4