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. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_1

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_2

mean?

The term regressions literally mean stepping back

towards the average.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_3

What is Regression?

Regression is a statistical tool to estimate (or predict)

the unknown values of one variable from known values

of another variable.

Example: If we know that advertising and sales are

correlated, we may find out the expected amount of

sales for a given advertising expenditure or the amount

of expenditure for achieving a fixed sales target.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_4

The regression analysis is a branch of statistical theory

that is widely used in almost all the scientific disciplines.

In economics it is the basic technique for measuring or

estimating the relationship among economic variables

that constitute the essence of economic theory and

economic life.

Example: If two variables price (X) and demand (Y) are

closely related one can find out the most probable value

of X for a given value of Y or the most probable value of

Y for a given value of X.

Similarly, if the amount of tax and the rise in the price of

a commodity are closely related, it is possible find out

the expected price for a certain amount of tax levy.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_5

regression analysis?

The points of difference between correlation and

regression analysis are:

While correlation co-efficient is a measure of degree

of relationship between X and Y, the regression

analysis helps study the nature of relationship

between the variables.

The cause and effect relation is more clearly indicated

through regression analysis than by correlation.

Correlation is merely a tool of ascertaining the degree

of relationship between two variables and, therefore,

one can not say that one variable is the cause and the

other the effect, while regression shows the extent of

dependence of one variable on another.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_6

If we take the case of two variables X and Y, we shall

have two regression lines as regression line of X on Y

and the regression line of Y on X.

The regression line of Y on X gives most probable

values of Y for given values of X and the regression

line of X on Y gives most probable values of X for

given values of Y. Thus we have two regression lines.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_7

regression line?

When there is either perfect positive or perfect

negative correlation between the two variables, the

two correlation lines will coincide i.e. we will have

one line.

The further the two regression lines are from each

other, the lesser is the degree of correlation and the

nearer the two regression lines to each other, the

higher is the degree of correlation. If variables are

independent, r is zero and the lines of regression are

at right angles i.e. parallel to X axis and Y axis.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_8

Regression Equations are algebraic expressions of

regression lines. Since there are two regression lines

there are two regression equationsthe regression

equation of X on Y is used to describe the variations in

the values of X for given change in Y and the regression

equation of Y on X is used to describe the variation in

the values of Y for given changes in X.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_9

The line of regression is the line which gives the best

estimate to the value of one variable for any specific

value of other variable. Thus the line of regression is the

line of best fit and is obtained by the principles of

least squares.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_10

equation of Y on X?

The general form of the linear regression equation of Y

on X is expressed as follows:

Ye = a+bX, where

Ye = dependent variable to be estimated

X = independent variable.

In this equation a and b are two unknown constants

(fixed numerical values) which determine the position

of the line completely. The constants are called the

parameters of the line. If the value of either one or both

of them are changed, another line is determined.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_11

equation of Y on X?

The parameter a determines the level of the fitted line

(i.e. the distance of the line directly, above or below the

origin). The parameter b determines the slope of the

line i.e. the change in Y for unit change in X.

To determine the values of a and b, the following two

normal equations are to be solved simultaneously.

Y=Na+bX, XY=aX +bX2.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_12

equation of X on Y?

The general form of the regression equation of X on Y

is expressed as follows:

X = a+bY

To determine the values of a and b, the following

two normal equations are to be solved simultaneously.

X = Na+bY, XY = aY+bY2.

Continued

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_13

equation of X on Y?

These equations are usually called the normal

equations. In the equations X, Y, XY, X2, indicate

totals which are computed from the observed pairs of

values of the two variables X and Y to which the least

squares estimating line is to be fitted and N is the

total number of observed pairs of values.

The geometrical presentation of the linear equation , Y

= a+bX is shown in the diagram below:

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_14

Y

X

b

a+

=

b Y

1 UNIT IN X

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_15

tells the average value of Y at a fixed value of X.

When X=0, the average value of Y is equal to a . The

value of a is called the Y- intercept since it is the

point at which the straight line crosses the Y- axis.

The slope of the line is measured by b, which gives

the average amount of change of Y per unit change

in the value of X. The sign of b also indicates the

type of relationship between Y and X.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_16

to determine a regression completely?

The values of a and b are obtained by the method

of least squares which states that the line should be

drawn through the plotted points in such a manner

that the sum of the squares of the vertical deviations

of the actual Y values from the estimated Y values is

the least, or in other words, in order to obtain a line

which fits the points best, (YYe)2 should be minimum.

Such a line is known as line of best fit.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_17

arrived at?

Continued

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_18

Ye = a+bX)

Or ,

Y a bX 1

Y a bX X 0

Y a bX 0............... 1

Y a bX X 0............ 2

From 1 , we have

1 , Y

a bX

Na b X

From 2 , we have

YX aX bX 2

XY a X b X 2

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Continued

Ch 8_19

Example:

The following data give the hardness (X) and tensile

strength (Y) of 7 samples of metal in certain units. Find

the linear regression equation of Y on X.

X:

Y:

65

78

77

89

82

85

86

Solution:

Regression equation of Y on X is given by

Y = a+bX

The normal equations are:

Y = Na + bX..

(1)

= aX+

. S. B.XY

Bhattacharjee

bX2

(2) Ch 8_20

Continued

X

X2

Y2

XY

146

75

21316

5625

10950

152

78

23104

6084

11856

158

77

24964

5929

12166

164

89

26896

7921

14596

170

82

28900

6724

13940

176

85

30976

7225

14960

182

86

33124

7396

15652

1148

(=X)

572

(=Y)

189280

(=X2)

46904

(=Y2)

94120

(=XY)

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Continued..

Ch 8_21

Here, N = 7

Substituting the values in equations (1) and (2), we

get

572 =7a +1148 b . (5)

94120 = 1148 a +189280 b (4)

Multiplying the equation (3) by 164, we get

93808 =1148 a +188272 b ..(5)

Subtracting this equation from (4), we get

b = 0.31

Putting this value of b in equation (3), we have

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Continued..

Ch 8_22

572 7a 1148 0 31

572 7 a 355 88

7a 572 355 88

7a 216 12

216 12

a

30 87

7

Y = 30.87 + 0.31X

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_23

and Y on X from the following data

X:

Y:

Solution:

X

X2

Y2

XY

25

10

16

64

32

25

49

35

X=15

Y=25

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

X2 = 55

Y2 =151

Continued..

XY = 88

Ch 8_24

The normal equations are X = Na+bY

and XY=aY+bY2

Substituting the values, we get

15 =5a+25b .. (1)

88= 25a+151b (2)

Solving (1) and (2), we get =0.5 and b =0.5

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_25

X = 0.5+ 0.5Y

The Regression equation of Y on X is : Y = a+bX

The normal equations are

Y= Na+ bX

XY = aX + bX2

Substituting the values, we get

25 = 5a +15b (iii)

88 = 15 a + 55b (iv)

Solving (iii) and (iv), we get

a = 1.10 and b = 1.3

Hence, the regression equation of Y on X is given by

Y =1.10 +1.30X

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Continued..

Ch 8_26

and regression equation of Y on X on the basis of

deviations taken from arithmetic Means of X and Y?

If we take the deviations of X and Y series from their

respective means, the regression equation of Y on X will

take the form

The value byx can be easily obtained as follows:

Y Y b yx X X

become

xy

b yx

,

2

x

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

y Na b x........... 1

2

xy

a

x

b

x

.... 2

Ch 8_27

Equation (1) reduces to

Na = 0 a = 0

Equation (2) reduces to

2

xy

b

x

b or b yx

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

xy

2

x

Ch 8_28

equation can easily be written in terms of X and Y by

substituting for y, Y Y and for x, X X .

to X X

= b xy Y Y and the value of b xy can be

xy

similarly obtained as

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

bxy

2

y

Ch 8_29

Example:

The following data give the hardness (X) and tensile

strength (Y) 7 samples of metal in certain units. Find

the linear regression equation of Y on X.

X:

146 152

Y:

75

77

78

89

82

85

86

Continued..

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_30

Hardness Strength

(X)

(Y)

Y

X(x) X Y (y)

x2

y2

xy

146

75

- 18

- 6.7142

324

45.08

120.86

152

78

- 12

-3.7122

144

13.80

44.57

158

77

-6

- 4.7142

36

22.22

28.29

164

89

7.2858

53.08

170

82

0.2853

36

0.08

1.71

176

85

12

3.2858

144

10.80

39.43

182

86

18

4.2858

324

18.37

77.14

N=7

X=1148 Y=572

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

x=0

y=0

x2=

1008

Continued..

y2

=163.43

xy

=312

Ch 8_31

1148

X

164

7

Y 572

81 71

N

7

xy 312

b yx

0 309 0 31

2

x 1008

Y Y b yx X X

Y Y 0 31 X 164

Y 81 71 0 31X 50 84 81 71

Y 0 31X 50 84 81 71

Y 0 31X 30 87

i.c. Y 30 87 0 31X

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_32

The quantity b in the regression equations (Y= a+bX

and X = a+bY) is called the regression coefficient

or slope co-efficient. Since there are two regression

equations, therefore, there are two regression coefficients regression coefficient

of X on Y and

regression coefficient of Y on X.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_33

The regression coefficient of X on Y is represented by the

symbol bxy or b1 . It measures the amount of change in X

corresponding to a unit change in Y. The regression co

x

efficient of X on Y is given by

bxy r.

y

When deviations are taken from the means of X and Y, the

regression coefficient is obtained by

xy

b xy

2

y

Continued..

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_34

When deviations are taken from assumed means, the

value of bxy is obtained as follows:

bxy

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

N dx dy dx dy

N d y dy

2

Ch 8_35

regression modal?

The value of the dependent variable, Y, is dependent in

some degree upon the value of the independent variable,

X. The dependent variable is assumed to be a random

variable, but the values of X are assumed to be fixed

quantities that are selected and controlled by the

experimenter. The requirement that the independent

variables assumes fixed values, however, is not a critical

one. Useful results can still be obtained by regression

analysis in the case where both X and Y are random

variables.

The average relationship between X and Y can be

adequately described by a linear equation Y= a+bX whose

geometrical presentation is a straight line.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_36

fixed value of X. When X= 0, the average value of Y is

equal to a. The value of a is called the Y intercept,

since it is the point at which the straight line crosses

the Y-axis. The slope of the line is measured by b,

which gives the average amount of change of Y per

unit change in the value of X. The sign of b also

indicates the type of relationship between Y and X.

Associated with each value of X there is a sub

population of Y. The distribution of the sub

population may be assumed to be normal or non

specified in the sense that it is unknown. In any

event, the distribution of each population Y is

conditional to the value of X.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_37

expected value of Y for a given X: E Y yx.

X

relationship between X and Y, all

Y

values of

E

or yx must fall on a straight line.

X

This is

Y

E

yx

X

a bX

bivariate linear model. In this equation a and b are

called the population regression co efficient.

An individual value in each sub-population Y, may be

expressed as:

X

Y E e

Y

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_38

from yx and is called the error term or the stochastic

disturbance term. The errors are assumed to be

independent random variables because Ys are

random variables and independent. The expectations

of these errors are zero; E(e) = 0. Moreover, if Ys are

normal variables, the error can also be assumed to be

normal.

It is assumed that the variances of all sub

populations, called variances of the regression, are

identical.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_39

The regression Coefficient of Y on X is represented by

byx or b2. It measures the amount of change in Y

corresponding to a unit change in X. The value of b yx is

y

given

b yx r.

xy

b yx

2

x

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Continued..

Ch 8_40

b yx

N dxd y dx

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

dy

2

2

N d x d x

Ch 8_41

coefficients?

The coefficient of correlation is the geometric

mean of the two regression coefficients .

Symbolically

r bxy b yx

If one of the regression coefficients is greater than

unity, the other must be less than unity, as the value

of the coefficient correlation cannot exceed unity.

Example: if bxy =1.2 and byx =1.4,

r would be 1 2 1 4

1 29 which is not possible.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Continued

Ch 8_42

coefficient?

Both the regression coefficients will have the same

sign i.e. they will be either positive or negative.

The coefficient of correlation will have the same

sign as that of regression coefficient.

Example:

If b xy 0 2 and b yx 0 8,

r 0 2 0 8 0 4

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Continued

Ch 8_43

co-efficient?

The average value of the two regression coefficients

would be greater than the value of coefficient of

correlation. Symbolically, b b

xy

Example:

If bxy

yx

r

2

0 8 and byx 0 4, the average of

08 0 4

the two values would be

0 6.

2

The value of r would be 0 8 0 4

0 566 which is less than 0 6.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Continued

Ch 8_44

of origin but not scale.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_45

Example:

Prove that the coefficient of correlation is the

geometric mean of the regression coefficient

Proof: Let bxy be co efficient of X on Y and byx be co

efficient of Y on X.

now, bxy

y

x

r.

; bxy r.

y

x

bxy b yx r

y

x

y

x

r2

or , r 2 bxy b yx r bxy b yx

The coefficient of correlation is the geometric mean

of the two regression coefficients.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_46

of change of origin but not scale.

b yx

N XY X

Y

2

N X 2 X

or

X a

Y b

and v

h

k

X a hu and Y b kv

Let

and

X a hu

Subtracting

and Y b kv

we get

X X h u u

X X Y Y

b yx

.......... i

2

X X

and

Y Y k v v

u u v v k

h u u k v v k

b yx

bvu

2

2

2

h

h

h u u

u u

Similary , it can be shown that bxy

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

h

buv .

k

Ch 8_47

Example:

The following figures relate to advertisement

expenditure and corresponding sales

Advertisement

(in lakhs of Taka)

60

62

65

70

73

75

71

Sales

( in crores of Taka)

10

11

13

15

16

19

14

Estimate

i) The sales for advertisement expenditure of Tk. 80

lakhs and

ii) The advertisement expenditure for a sales target of

Tk. 25 crores

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_48

sales by y calculation of regression equations

X

X X

=x

x2

60

64

62

65

Y Y

=y

y2

xy

10

16

32

36

11

18

13

70

15

73

25

16

10

75

49

19

25

35

71

14

X=476 x= 0 x2=196

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

xy= 100

Ch 8_49

Here,

X

Y 98

476

N 7;

68 and Y

14

N

7

N

7

i Regression equation of Y on X :

Y Y b yx X X ..................(i )

Here,

xy 100

b yx

0 51

2

x 196

Y 14 0 51 X 68

Y 14 0 51X 34 68

0 51X 34 68 14

0 51X 20 68

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_50

Sales,Y= 0.5180 20.68

= 40.8 20.68

= 20.12

The likely sales for advertisement expenditure of Tk.

80 lakhs = Tk. 20.12 crores.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_51

X X b xy Y Y

Here,

xy 100

bxy

1 7857 1 79

2

y 56

X 68 1 79 Y 14

X 68 1 79 24 9998

X 1 79Y 24 9998 68

X 1 79Y 43

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_52

Y= 25 croes,

= 44.75+43

= 87.75

target of Tk.25 crores = Tk. 87.75 Lakhs.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_53

Example:

The following data relate to advertising expenditure

(in lakhs of Taka) and their corresponding sales (in

crores of Taka):

Advertising Expenditure 10

12

15

23

20

Sales

17

23

25

21

14

expenditure of Tk 30 lakhs and

ii) the advertising expenditure for a sales

target of Tka. 35 crores.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_54

X

X (x) X

10

-6

36

12

-4

15

Y Y

(y)

y2

xy

14

-6

36

+36

16

17

-3

+12

-1

23

+3

-3

23

+7

49

25

+5

25

+35

20

+4

16

21

+1

+4

X= 80 x= 0

x2=118

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Y=100

y=0

y2=80 xy=84

Ch 8_55

Here,

X

X

N

80

16

5

Y 100

20

N

Now,

XY

b yx

2

X

84

0 712

118

Y 20 0 712 X 16

Y 0 712 X 11.392 20

Y 0 712 X 8 608

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_56

Sales, Y= 0.712 X +8.608= 21.36+8.608=29.968

Thus the likely sales corresponding to advertisement

expenditure of Tk.30 lakhs is Tk 29.968 crores.

Regression equation of X on Y is given by

X X bxy Y Y

xy 84

bxy

1 05

2

y 80

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_57

X 16 1 05 Y 20

X 16 1 05Y 21

X 16 21 1 05Y

X 5 1 05Y

advertising expenditure, X = - 5 +1.05 35

= - 5 +36.75 = 31.75

The advertising expenditure for a sales target of

Tk. 35 crores is Tk. 31.75 lakhs.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_58

The measure of variation of the observations around the

computed regression line is referred to as the standard

error of estimate.

Just as the standard deviation is a measure of the

scatter of observations in a frequency distribution

around the mean of that distribution, the standard error

of estimate is a measure of the scatter of the observed

values of Y around the corresponding computed values

of Y on the regression line. It is computed as a standard

deviation, being also a square root of the mean of the

squared deviation. But the deviations here are not

deviations of the items from the arithmetic mean; they

are rather the vertical distances of every dot from the

line of average relationship.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_59

the standard error of estimate?

where

S yx

S yx

N 2

Or

regression equation

of Y on X.

2

Y

a Y b YX

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

N 2

Ch 8_60

S xy

S xy

N 2

Or

2

X

a X b xy

N 2

calculated with the help of the following formula.

i)

ii )

S xy S y 1 r 2

S yx S x 1 r

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

2

Continued.

Ch 8_61

The standard error of estimate measures the accuracy

of the estimated figures. The smaller the value of

standard error of estimate, the closer will be dots to

the regression line and the better the estimates based

on the equation for this line.

If standard error of estimate is zero, then there is no

variation about the line and the correlation will be

perfect.

With the help of standard error of estimate, it is

possible for us to ascertain how good and

representative the regression line is as a description

of the average relationship between two series.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_62

The ratio of the unexplained variation to the total

variation represents the proportion of variation in Y that

is not explained by regression on X. Subtraction of this

proportion from 1.0 gives the proportion of variation in Y

that is explained by regression on X. The statistic used

to express this proportion is called the co-efficient of

determination and is denoted by R2. It may be written as

follows:

Variation in Y remaining after regression on X

R2 1

Total variation in Y

Error sum of squares

2

R 1

Total sum of squares

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Continued.

Ch 8_63

the dependent variable Y explained by regression on

the independent variable X.

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_64

. S. B. Bhattacharjee

Ch 8_65

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