Global Warming

(Climate Change)

Outline of Lectures
Earths Energy Balance
incident solar energy
outgoing longwave radiation
detailed energy balance

Greenhouse Gases
the greenhouse effect, and GHGs
increasing GHGs
biogeochemical cycles; the carbon cycle

Radiative Forcing: the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

explanation of the concept of radiative forcing
current values of radiative forcings

Climate Change: Trends and Predictions

past global average temperature trends

feedback effects. Factors driving climate change.
computer models
predictions: global warming and other changes in climate

Earths Energy Balance

Incoming Solar Energy

emits
26
3.8 x 10 W
in all directions
(approximate)
cross-sectional area

17

1.7 x 10 W
strikes the earth

to maintain energy balance, Earth must also emit energy at the

same rate of 1.7 x 1017 J/s
dividing by the surface area, this averages out to 342 W/m 2

Earths Energy Balance

Incoming and Outgoing Radiation

Earths Energy Balance

Incoming Solar Energy

Lecture Question
How much of the sunlight that reaches the earth is:
a) reflected without being absorbed?
b) absorbed by the atmosphere?
c) absorbed by Earths surface?
a) 30%
b) 25%
c) 45%

Earths Energy Balance

Incoming Solar Energy
about 30% of
incoming sunlight is
reflected back to
space (clouds,
oceans, snow/ice)
this is Earths albedo
the amount available
to heat the earth is
235 W/m2
about 25% is
absorbed by the
atmosphere (see
figure on left)
the rest (about 45%)
is absorbed by the
surface land and
water

The Greenhouse Effect

Lecture Questions
What is the greenhouse effect?
What are greenhouse gases (GHGs)?
What are the five main natural GHGs?
(answers to follow)
Without the greenhouse effect, the global average surface temperature of the
Earth would be about -19 C instead of 15 C.

Earths Energy Balance

Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)
The major natural
GHGs are
water (H2O)
carbon dioxide (CO2)
ozone (O3)
methane (CH4)
nitrous oxide (N2O)
(not shown on left)
note the IR Window
in the OLR (8-13 m)
GHGs absorbing in
this region tend to be
very effective at
trapping OLR

Earths Energy Balance: Detailed Balance

107
reflected solar
radiation

342
incident solar
radiation

235

Top of the Atmosphere

outgoing longwave
radiation (OLR)

77
67

Atmosphere (air + clouds)

195

519 input = 519 output

30

168

102

350

non-radiative
heat transfer

Earth's Surface
522 input = 522 output

324

40

The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

Lecture Question
What is the enhanced greenhouse effect?
The enhanced greenhouse effect is an increase in the amount of
energy trapped by the atmosphere, largely due to increased
concentrations of greenhouse gases.
What GHGs have been increased in the atmosphere due to
human activities?
CO2, CH4, N2O, tropospheric O3 (smog), and halocarbons
(CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, halons, and other cpds)

380

The Global Carbon Cycle

Increase in Atmospheric CO2

CO2 Concentration, ppm

370

What do you see in these data?

360
350
340
330
Monthly Measurements at Mauna Loa
Monthly Measurements at the South Pole

320
310
1960

1970

1980

Year

1990

2000

Increasing GHG Concentrations

The Global Carbon Cycle

Lecture Question
What is the carbon cycle?
What are the main processes that contribute to the carbon cycle?
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Most important cycles: carbon (usually taken to be carbon dioxide), nitrogen,
sulfur, phosphorus, water
Earth is divided up into a number of distinct reservoirs (boxes) such as:
atmosphere, water, land, etc.
Divisions can be finer than this. For example, the atmosphere can be further
subdivided into troposphere and stratosphere; the hydrosphere can be divided
into oceans and freshwater (and these can be further subdivided), etc.
The amount of the element in each reservoir is esimtated in some manner.

The processes that allow exchange of the element between the reservoirs
are described and their rates are quantified
For the carbon cycle, the most important processes are: photosynthesis,
respiration/decay, combustion, dissolution/outgassing, CaCO 3 (calcite) formation
and dissolution

OUTER SPACE
escape

Biogeochemical Cycles

meteorites

surface reservoirs

ATMOSPHERE

respiration

photosynthesis

outgassing

BIOSPHERE
(vegetation, animals,
microorganisms)

dissolution
decay

assimilation
decay,
burial

assimilation

HYDROSPHERE
(oceans, lakes,
rivers, groundwater)

runoff

subduction

volcanoes

DEEP EARTH
(mantle, core)

LITHOSPHERE
(soil, sediment, crust)

Main Components of the Natural Carbon Cycle

Source: IPCC
Units: 1015 g C or 1015 g C/yr

Human Activities and

GHG Increases in the Atmosphere
Lecture Question
The atmospheric concentration of the following GHGs have been
increasing due to human activities. For each one, state the major
activities that have caused the increase:

CO2
CH4
N2O
tropospheric O3
halocarbons

CO2: fossil fuel combustion, deforestation (biomass burning), cement

production
CH4: coal mining, rice paddies, livestock, landfills, biomass burning, sewage
treatment
N2O: fertilizer use, producing nutrient N pollution that stimulates nitrification
and denitrification, both of which give N2O as a byproduct
troposphere O3: main component of photochemical smog, produced by NOx
emissions (cars, power plants) and reactive volatile organic cpds (VOCs)
halocarbons: used as refrigerants, fire extinguishers, solvents, etc

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Cycle

Modeling the Carbon Cycle (Mass Balance)

Anthropogenic sources

Partitioning among reservoirs

fossil fuel combustion,

cement production

5.5 0.5 PgC/yr

changes in land-use

1.6 1.0 PgC/yr

total emissions

7.1 1.1 PgC/yr

net ocean uptake

2.0 0.8 PgC/yr

net land uptake

1.8 1.6 PgC/yr

net storage in atmosphere

(measured)

3.3 0.1 PgC/yr

The Methane Cycle

Radiative Forcing
Lecture Question
What is radiative forcing?
Radiative forcing is a quantitative measure of the imbalance
between incoming (solar) and outgoing (reflected plus infrared)
radiation.
A positive radiative forcing indicates an increase in the amount
of radiation trapped by the atmosphere (an enhanced
greenhouse effect), eventually leading to global warming. A
negative forcing eventually leads to global cooling.

Radiative Forcing

Radiative Forcing
Lecture Questions
What have been the major (direct) factors that have caused a
positive forcing in the past century?
increases in concentrations of CO2, CH4, halocarbons, tropospheric
O3, and N2O
increase in elemental carbon PM (ie, soot)
increase in solar output

What factors have caused a negative forcing?

stratospheric ozone depletion, increases in most PM (esp sulfate),
changes in cloud formation process, increased albedo due to landuse changes

Radiative Forcing

Radiative Forcing

Global Climate Change

Lecture Question
The phrase global climate change covers a variety of trends and effects.
List them.
Changes in global average surface temperatures.
including daytime max and nighttime min temps
including number of very hot days in summer and number of very cold
days in winter
change in sea level due to liquid expansion and changes in ice
thickness/extent

Changes in global precipitation

total amount of precipitation
frequency and intensity of precipitation events
changes in spatial patterns (traditionally wet and dry areas)

Changes in extreme events

hurricanes, tornados, heavy thunderstorms

Changes in heat distribution

changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation of matter and energy
for example, shutting down the gulf stream

Global Warming
Lecture Question
What has been the average global surface temperature increase
in the last century? What is the current rate of increase per
decade?
IPCC and textbook: the global average surface temperatures
over land increased by about 0.6 C (between 0.4 C and 0.8 C)
IPCC: the current rate of increase is about 0.13 C / decade in
daytime daily max temperatures.

Temperature Data Direct Measurements

Temperature Data Indirect Measures

Temperature Data Long Term Variability

Temperature CO2 Correlation

Historical Record from Vostok Ice Core
4

320

300

280

-2

260

-4

240

-6

220

-8

200

-10

temperature
carbon dioxide

-12

180

160
0

100

200

Age, kyr BP

300

400

CO2 concentration, ppm

o
Temperature Deviation from Present, C

Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Data

Temperature CO2 Correlation

Vostok Historical Data
Correlation of Temperature and CO2 Levels
4
linear correlation coefficient = 0.865

Temperature Deviation, oC

2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
160

180

200

220

240

260

280

Carbon Dioxide Concentration, ppmv

300

320

Climate Change Controversies

The Greenhouse effect

Mechanism is not controversial

Increasing GHG concs

The increase itself is not controversial
Nor is it controversial that it is due to human activities

Radiative Forcing
The fact that increasing GHGs will result in a positive forcing is not controversial
There is some (fairly small) uncertainty in the magnitude of the forcing due to
GHG increases
There is larger uncertainty on the effect of other changes (especially aerosol
indirect effects) on forcing

Temperature Trends
Generally accepted that global average surface temps are rising
Some controversy regarding sampling bias, satellite readings; largely resolved
now.
Fairly broad agreement that the observed warming trend is not due to natural
factors only (although they contribute)

Future Predictions
Firtually certain that increasing GHG concs will eventually lead to warming
Rate and magnitude of the increase are uncertain; greatest source of uncertainty
is emission rate of CO2 and other GHGs
The effects of increasing temperature are also controversial (ie, how bad would
warming really be?)

IPCC Statements
What is the IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change
UNEP-WMO
Authoritative scientific body to assess current status of climate change
science
Also looks at mitigation (technology, policy, economics)

Second Assessment Report (SAR), 1996

The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on
global climate.

Third Assessment Report (TAR), 2001

There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed
over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal[there is] very high
confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities
since 1750 has been one of warming.
Note: very high confidence is specified as at least 90% probable.

Statements by US Organizations

American Meteorology Society (AMS), 2003

Because greenhouse gases continue to increase, we are, in effect,
conducting a global climate experiment, neither planned nor controlled,
the results of which may present unprecedented challenges to our
wisdom and foresight as well as have significant impacts on our natural
and societal systems.

American Geophysical Union, 2003

Human activities are increasingly altering the Earth's climate. These
effects add to natural influences that have been present over Earth's
history. Scientific evidence strongly indicates that natural influences
cannot explain the rapid increase in global near-surface temperatures
observed during the second half of the 20th century.

Other US organizations who have issued similar statements

National Academy of Science
American Association for the Advancement of Science

Some Points Made by Skeptics

The science is too uncertain
IPCC statements do not reflect the true degree of uncertainty

Science is not a democracy

Although a majority of scientists believe global warming is real
and is due largely to human activities, that does not mean they
are correct
Minority scientific opinion has been right before
The science has been politicized

Past temperatures
The Earth has been both cooler and warmer than today

Predictions are too uncertain

We cannot base policy on them

Kyoto is a flawed treaty

More cost-effective to wait before regulating GHG generation

Warming is not so bad

Predictions for the Future

Lecture Question
What does the IPCC predict will happen to the global average
temperature in the next 100 years?

Predictions for the Future

Predictions for the Future

Predictions for the Future

Questions
How are future temperatures predicted?
Sophisticated General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used.
Commonly called Global Climate Models
Computer-based integration of the exchange of energy and matter in a
3-dimensional spatial grid. They are run forward in time, and future
trends in climate (temperature, precipitation, etc) are predicted for each
element of the grid.
Very many processes must be considered (see next slide)
Nonlinear feedback effects must also be considered.

How are predictions verified?

Model predictions can be made for past climates and compared to
the actual measurements that were collected.

Factors Driving Climate

bold arrows represent
aspects that may change

Feedback Effects

What are feedback effects?

A negative feedback is one that tends to dampen changes
A positive feedback is one that tends to reinforce changes

Examples (not inclusive): effects of increasing temperature on

The carbon cycle
decreases solubility of CO2 in water, decreasing the ocean uptake rate
possibly increases the rate of photosynthesis and plant growth
increases the rate of decomposition

The hydrologic cycle

increases water vapor pressure, increasing conc of water in the atmosphere

Earths albedo
increases cloud cover
decreases snow cover

Energy circulation
atmospheric circulation
oceanic (thermohaline) circulation

Predictions: GCMs
What are GCMs?
Global Climate Models or General Circulation Models
A GCM aims to describe geophysical flow by integrating a
variety of fluid-dynamical, chemical, or even biological equations
that are either derived directly from physical laws (e.g. Newton's
law) or constructed by more empirical means. (Wikipedia)
There are GCMs for ocean and atmospheric components;
coupled atmospheric-oceanic GCMs (AOGCMs) can be used to
make climate predictions
Most sophisticated GCMs are 3-dimensional grids to model
fluid motion
Ideally provide both regional and global predictions of climate
The models are imperfect
True of any model, but:
Critics of global warming theory content that the imperfections are
significant

Predictions Verification: Natural Forcings Only

Predictions Verification: Human Forcings Only

Predictions Verification: All Forcings

Other Effects on Global Climate

Lecture Question
Other than warming, what other changes are predicted in global
climate in the next century?
Sea level will rise
0.18m 0.59m (AR4) by 2100 by thermal expansion, which will continue
for centuries
Potentially much larger increases due to loss/shifts of landlocked ice
sheets such as in Greenland (complete elimination would lead to 7m
rise) and Antarctica

Precipitation will increase in some areas, decrease in others

Possible increase in high latitudes and decrease in subtropical regions

Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climate events

Heat waves, heavy precipitation events, tornados, hurricanes, stronger
El Nino events, monsoons, etc

Effects on ecosystems uncertain

ranges of various organisms will change
increased spread of infectious disease (esp insect-borne) possible
decrease in biodiversity feared

Circulation in the Atlantic Ocean (MOC) will slow