Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
(Climate Change)
Outline of Lectures
Earths Energy Balance
incident solar energy
outgoing longwave radiation
detailed energy balance
Greenhouse Gases
the greenhouse effect, and GHGs
increasing GHGs
biogeochemical cycles; the carbon cycle
emits
26
3.8 x 10 W
in all directions
(approximate)
cross-sectional area
17
1.7 x 10 W
strikes the earth
Lecture Question
How much of the sunlight that reaches the earth is:
a) reflected without being absorbed?
b) absorbed by the atmosphere?
c) absorbed by Earths surface?
a) 30%
b) 25%
c) 45%
Lecture Questions
What is the greenhouse effect?
What are greenhouse gases (GHGs)?
What are the five main natural GHGs?
(answers to follow)
Without the greenhouse effect, the global average surface temperature of the
Earth would be about -19 C instead of 15 C.
342
incident solar
radiation
235
outgoing longwave
radiation (OLR)
77
67
195
30
168
102
350
non-radiative
heat transfer
Earth's Surface
522 input = 522 output
324
40
380
370
360
350
340
330
Monthly Measurements at Mauna Loa
Monthly Measurements at the South Pole
320
310
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Lecture Question
What is the carbon cycle?
What are the main processes that contribute to the carbon cycle?
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Most important cycles: carbon (usually taken to be carbon dioxide), nitrogen,
sulfur, phosphorus, water
Earth is divided up into a number of distinct reservoirs (boxes) such as:
atmosphere, water, land, etc.
Divisions can be finer than this. For example, the atmosphere can be further
subdivided into troposphere and stratosphere; the hydrosphere can be divided
into oceans and freshwater (and these can be further subdivided), etc.
The amount of the element in each reservoir is esimtated in some manner.
The processes that allow exchange of the element between the reservoirs
are described and their rates are quantified
For the carbon cycle, the most important processes are: photosynthesis,
respiration/decay, combustion, dissolution/outgassing, CaCO 3 (calcite) formation
and dissolution
OUTER SPACE
escape
Biogeochemical Cycles
meteorites
surface reservoirs
ATMOSPHERE
respiration
photosynthesis
outgassing
BIOSPHERE
(vegetation, animals,
microorganisms)
dissolution
decay
assimilation
decay,
burial
assimilation
HYDROSPHERE
(oceans, lakes,
rivers, groundwater)
runoff
subduction
volcanoes
DEEP EARTH
(mantle, core)
LITHOSPHERE
(soil, sediment, crust)
Source: IPCC
Units: 1015 g C or 1015 g C/yr
CO2
CH4
N2O
tropospheric O3
halocarbons
Anthropogenic sources
changes in land-use
total emissions
Radiative Forcing
Lecture Question
What is radiative forcing?
Radiative forcing is a quantitative measure of the imbalance
between incoming (solar) and outgoing (reflected plus infrared)
radiation.
A positive radiative forcing indicates an increase in the amount
of radiation trapped by the atmosphere (an enhanced
greenhouse effect), eventually leading to global warming. A
negative forcing eventually leads to global cooling.
Radiative Forcing
Radiative Forcing
Lecture Questions
What have been the major (direct) factors that have caused a
positive forcing in the past century?
increases in concentrations of CO2, CH4, halocarbons, tropospheric
O3, and N2O
increase in elemental carbon PM (ie, soot)
increase in solar output
Radiative Forcing
Radiative Forcing
Lecture Question
The phrase global climate change covers a variety of trends and effects.
List them.
Changes in global average surface temperatures.
including daytime max and nighttime min temps
including number of very hot days in summer and number of very cold
days in winter
change in sea level due to liquid expansion and changes in ice
thickness/extent
Global Warming
Lecture Question
What has been the average global surface temperature increase
in the last century? What is the current rate of increase per
decade?
IPCC and textbook: the global average surface temperatures
over land increased by about 0.6 C (between 0.4 C and 0.8 C)
IPCC: the current rate of increase is about 0.13 C / decade in
daytime daily max temperatures.
320
300
280
-2
260
-4
240
-6
220
-8
200
-10
temperature
carbon dioxide
-12
180
160
0
100
200
Age, kyr BP
300
400
o
Temperature Deviation from Present, C
Temperature Deviation, oC
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Radiative Forcing
The fact that increasing GHGs will result in a positive forcing is not controversial
There is some (fairly small) uncertainty in the magnitude of the forcing due to
GHG increases
There is larger uncertainty on the effect of other changes (especially aerosol
indirect effects) on forcing
Temperature Trends
Generally accepted that global average surface temps are rising
Some controversy regarding sampling bias, satellite readings; largely resolved
now.
Fairly broad agreement that the observed warming trend is not due to natural
factors only (although they contribute)
Future Predictions
Firtually certain that increasing GHG concs will eventually lead to warming
Rate and magnitude of the increase are uncertain; greatest source of uncertainty
is emission rate of CO2 and other GHGs
The effects of increasing temperature are also controversial (ie, how bad would
warming really be?)
IPCC Statements
What is the IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change
UNEP-WMO
Authoritative scientific body to assess current status of climate change
science
Also looks at mitigation (technology, policy, economics)
Statements by US Organizations
Past temperatures
The Earth has been both cooler and warmer than today
Feedback Effects
Earths albedo
increases cloud cover
decreases snow cover
Energy circulation
atmospheric circulation
oceanic (thermohaline) circulation
Predictions: GCMs
What are GCMs?
Global Climate Models or General Circulation Models
A GCM aims to describe geophysical flow by integrating a
variety of fluid-dynamical, chemical, or even biological equations
that are either derived directly from physical laws (e.g. Newton's
law) or constructed by more empirical means. (Wikipedia)
There are GCMs for ocean and atmospheric components;
coupled atmospheric-oceanic GCMs (AOGCMs) can be used to
make climate predictions
Most sophisticated GCMs are 3-dimensional grids to model
fluid motion
Ideally provide both regional and global predictions of climate
The models are imperfect
True of any model, but:
Critics of global warming theory content that the imperfections are
significant