Case Study Geopolitical

Team Awesome

Case Study Geopolitical

General Overview of The Situation

Short Term Debt Repayment: 22.5 billion in

2015

No Liquidity To Repay Debt

EU Is Imposing Additional Constraint In Order To Give
Additional
Credits
Finding New
Funds Without Breaking Political
Promises

Case Study Geopolitical

The Russian Option

Favorable financing from Russia (long-term and

low interest) to cover debt liabilities looming in
June-July
Possibility to leverage using Russias desire to
destabilize EU and promote Turkish stream
project as opposed to TANAP from Azerbaijan
Natural gas price discounts
Ally in the UN Security Council with veto power
(possible solution to Cyprus conflict)
Russian import embargo is lifted for Greek
agricultural exports

Russias current economic situation

does not allow it to provide significant
funds in cash in a short-term (only trade
credits, discounts)
Greece would become a scapegoat of
the whole EU with a possibility of a
forced EU exit
Significantly
tarnished
reputation
worldwide
Sanctions from EU and US might be
imposed (abolishment of favorable
trade conditions, partnerships in other
spheres frozen)

Case Study Geopolitical

European partners - Troika

Economic

Financial
support
for
loan payment.
Continuation of
austerity
policies.
Impact in the
labor
market
supply.

Strategic

Political

No
long-term Significant reforms.
Implementation of
strategy for the
reforms that go
development
of
against
the
the
national
government
economy.
political principles.
Possibility
of
exclusion from the
EU.
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Case Study Geopolitical Analysis

Ni Hao China
Political
Fulfil election
mandate of antiausterity
Not set off Grexit
alarm bells
Develop key Asia
pivot

Economic

Strategic

Address short-term liquidity

Adapting to shifting centers
crunch & get long term of international power
infrastructure investments
Important place in One Belt
Impetus to boost spending,
One Road trade route
promote consumption &
implement sustainable Development of maritime,
demand side growth factors
Infrastructure & logistic interes

Create organic economicMutually complementary

output and increase
economies so synergy possib
self-reliance

Case Study Geopolitical

Scenarios With The Chinese Optinon

Economic
Growth
NATOs
Reaction

No

NATOs
Reaction

Scenario 3:
Troubled
Times

Reacti
on

Scenario 4:
Same
Problem,
No
Different
Reaction
Allies

Scenario 1:
New Rivalries

High
Scenario 2:
Jackpot

Case Study Geopolitical Analysis

Recommendation
Economic:
Immediate funding
Long term economic
benefits
Spur to sustained
development

Political:
Saves face internally
Follows through on
mandate
EU and US not too pissed
off

Partner with China

Strategic:
Align with next superpower
Important place in New Silk
Route
Shared economic incentives
Avoid Russian option

Risk:
Not sure of future China
aspirations
Could demand rail or other
sector influence
What if future there are
sanctions like the arms one
currently?
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