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May 27, 2015

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Valuation

© All Rights Reserved

Als PPT, PDF, TXT **herunterladen** oder online auf Scribd lesen

507 Aufrufe

Valuation

© All Rights Reserved

Als PPT, PDF, TXT **herunterladen** oder online auf Scribd lesen

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The Valuation of

Long-Term

Securities

4.1

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

you should be able to:

1.

2.

3.

4.

4.2

express value.

Value bonds, preferred stocks, and common

stocks.

Calculate the rates of return (or yields) of

different types of long-term securities.

List and explain a number of observations

regarding the behavior of bond prices.

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

The Valuation of

Long-Term Securities

4.3

Concepts

Bond Valuation

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

What is Value?

4.4

amount of money that could be

realized if an asset or group of

assets is sold separately from its

operating organization.

amount a firm could be sold for as a

continuing operating business.

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

What is Value?

(1) an asset: the accounting value of

an asset the assets cost minus

its accumulated depreciation;

(2) a firm: total assets minus liabilities

and preferred stock as listed on

the balance sheet.

4.5

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

What is Value?

4.6

market price at which an asset

trades.

Intrinsic value represents the

price a security ought to have

based on all factors bearing on

valuation.

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

Bond Valuation

4.7

Important Terms

Types of Bonds

Valuation of Bonds

Handling Semiannual

Compounding

4.8

instrument issued by a

corporation or government.

MV [or face

value] of a bond is the stated

value. In the case of a US bond,

the face value is usually $1,000.

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

4.9

rate of interest; the annual interest

payment divided by the bonds face

value.

The discount rate (capitalization rate)

is dependent on the risk of the bond

and is composed of the risk-free rate

plus a premium for risk.

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

A perpetual bond is a bond that never

matures. It has an infinite life.

V=

I

(1 + kd)1

t=1

(1 + kd)t

V = I / kd

4.10

I

(1 + kd)2

or

+ ... +

I

(1 + kd)

I (PVIFA k

d,

[Reduced Form]

Bond P has a $1,000 face value and provides an

8% annual coupon. The appropriate discount rate

is 10%. What is the value of the perpetual bond?

bond

$80

kd

= 10%.

10%

= I / kd

[Reduced Form]

$800

4.11

Tricking the

Calculator to Solve

Inputs

1,000,000 10

N

Compute

N:

I/Y:

PV:

PMT:

FV:

4.12

I/Y

PV

80

PMT

FV

800.0

10% interest rate per period (enter as 10 NOT 0.10)

Compute (Resulting answer is cost to purchase)

$80 annual interest forever (8% x $1,000 face)

$0 (investor never receives the face value)

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

A non-zero coupon-paying bond is a

coupon paying bond with a finite life.

V=

I

(1 + kd)1

t=1

(1 + kd)

V = I (PVIFA k

4.13

I

(1 + kd)2

+ ... +

I + MV

(1 + kd)n

MV

(1 + kd)n

) + MV (PVIF kd, n)

d, n

Bond C has a $1,000 face value and provides

an 8% annual coupon for 30 years. The

appropriate discount rate is 10%. What is the

value of the coupon bond?

V

= $80 (9.427) + $1,000 (.057)

[Table IV]

[Table II]

= $754.16 + $57.00

= $811.16.

$811.16

4.14

Bond on the Calculator

Inputs

Compute

N:

I/Y:

PV:

PMT:

FV:

4.15

30

10

I/Y

PV

-811.46

80

+$1,000

PMT

FV

(Actual, rounding

error in tables)

10% interest rate per period (enter as 10 NOT 0.10)

Compute (Resulting answer is cost to purchase)

$80 annual interest (8% x $1,000 face value)

$1,000 (investor receives face value in 30 years)

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

A zero coupon bond is a bond that pays

no interest but sells at a deep discount

from its face value; it provides

compensation to investors in the form

of price appreciation.

V=

4.16

MV

(1 + kd)n

= MV (PVIFk

d, n

Zero-Coupon

Bond Example

Bond Z has a $1,000 face value and

a 30 year life. The appropriate

discount rate is 10%. What is the

value of the zero-coupon bond?

V

4.17

= $1,000 (0.057)

= $57.00

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

Bond on the Calculator

Inputs

Compute

N:

I/Y:

PV:

PMT:

FV:

4.18

30

10

I/Y

PV

57.31

PMT

+$1,000

FV

(Actual - rounding

error in tables)

10% interest rate per period (enter as 10 NOT 0.10)

Compute (Resulting answer is cost to purchase)

$0 coupon interest since it pays no coupon

$1,000 (investor receives only face in 30 years)

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

Semiannual Compounding

Most bonds in the US pay interest

twice a year (1/2 of the annual

coupon).

Adjustments needed:

(1) Divide kd by 2

(2) Multiply n by 2

(3) Divide I by 2

4.19

Semiannual Compounding

A non-zero coupon bond adjusted for

semi-annual compounding.

I

/

2

I

/

2

I

/

2

+

MV

V =(1 + k /2 )1 +(1 + k /2 )2 + ... +

2 n

d

2*n

t=1

I/2

(1 + kd /2 )

(1 + kd/2 ) *

MV

(1 + kd /2 ) 2*n

4.20

Semiannual Coupon

Bond Example

Bond C has a $1,000 face value and provides

an 8% semi-annual coupon for 15 years. The

appropriate discount rate is 10% (annual rate).

What is the value of the coupon bond?

V

= $40 (15.373) + $1,000 (.231)

[Table IV]

[Table II]

= $614.92 + $231.00

4.21

= $845.92

Bond on the Calculator

Inputs

Compute

N:

I/Y:

PV:

PMT:

FV:

4.22

30

I/Y

PV

846.28

40

+$1,000

PMT

FV

(Actual, rounding

error in tables)

5% interest rate per semiannual period (10 / 2 = 5)

Compute (Resulting answer is cost to purchase)

$40 semiannual coupon ($80 / 2 = $40)

$1,000 (investor receives face value in 15 years)

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

Semiannual Coupon

Bond Example

Let us use another worksheet on your

calculator to solve this problem. Assume

that Bond C was purchased (settlement

date) on 12-31-2004 and will be redeemed

on 12-31-2019. This is identical to the 15year period we discussed for Bond C.

What is its percent of par? What is the

value of the bond?

4.23

Press:

2nd

Bond

12.3104 ENTER

8

ENTER

12.3119 ENTER

10

CPT

ENTER

4.24

Semiannual Coupon

Bond Example

4.25

1.

What is its

percent of par?

84.628% of par

(as quoted in

financial papers)

2.

What is the

value of the

bond?

84.628% x $1,000

face value =

$846.28

Preferred Stock is a type of stock

that promises a (usually) fixed

dividend, but at the discretion of

the board of directors.

Preferred Stock has preference over

common stock in the payment of

dividends and claims on assets.

4.26

V=

DivP

(1 + kP)

DivP

+ (1 + k

DivP

t=1

(1 + kP)

P)

+ ... +

DivP

(1 + kP)

or DivP(PVIFA k

P,

perpetuity

V = DivP / kP

4.27

Stock PS has an 8%, $100 par value

issue outstanding. The appropriate

discount rate is 10%. What is the value

of the preferred stock?

stock

DivP

kP

V

4.28

= $100 ( 8% ) = $8.00.

$8.00

= 10%.

10%

= DivP / kP = $8.00 / 10%

= $80

Common stock represents a

residual ownership position in the

corporation.

Pro rata share of future earnings

after all other obligations of the

firm (if any remain).

4.29

the pro rata share of earnings.

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

What cash flows will a shareholder

receive when owning shares of

common stock?

stock

(1) Future dividends

(2) Future sale of the common

stock shares

4.30

Basic dividend valuation model accounts

for the PV of all future dividends.

V=

Div1

(1 + ke)1

Divt

t=1

(1 + ke)t

=

4.31

Div2

(1 + ke)2

+ ... +

Div

(1 + ke)

at time t

ke:

Equity investors

required return

Adjusted Dividend

Valuation Model

The basic dividend valuation model

adjusted for the future stock sale.

V=

Div1

(1 + ke)1

n:

Pricen:

4.32

Div2

(1 + ke)2

Divn + Pricen

+ ... +

(1 + k )n

e

shares are expected to be sold.

The expected share price in year n.

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

Dividend Growth

Pattern Assumptions

The dividend valuation model requires the

forecast of all future dividends. The

following dividend growth rate assumptions

simplify the valuation process.

Constant Growth

No Growth

Growth Phases

4.33

The constant growth model assumes that

dividends will grow forever at the rate g.

D0(1+g) D0(1+g)2

D0(1+g)

V = (1 + k )1 + (1 + k )2 + ... + (1 + k )

D1

=

(ke - g)

4.34

D1:

g:

ke:

Constant Growth

Model Example

Stock CG has an expected dividend

growth rate of 8%. Each share of stock

just received an annual $3.24 dividend.

The appropriate discount rate is 15%.

What is the value of the common stock?

stock

D1

= $50

4.35

The zero growth model assumes that

dividends will grow forever at the rate g = 0.

VZG =

=

4.36

D1

(1 + ke)1

D1

ke

D2

(1 + ke)2

+ ... +

(1 + ke)

D1:

ke:

Zero Growth

Model Example

Stock ZG has an expected growth rate of

0%. Each share of stock just received an

annual $3.24 dividend per share. The

appropriate discount rate is 15%. What is

the value of the common stock?

stock

D1

= $3.24 ( 1 + 0 ) = $3.24

= $21.60

4.37

The growth phases model assumes

that dividends for each share will grow

at two or more different growth rates.

n

V =

t=1

4.38

D0(1 + g1)

(1 + ke)

Dn(1 + g2)t

t=n+1

(1 + ke)t

Note that the second phase of the growth

phases model assumes that dividends will

grow at a constant rate g2. We can rewrite

the formula as:

V =

t=1

4.39

D0(1 + g1)t

(1 + ke)t

Dn+1

Growth Phases

Model Example

Stock GP has an expected growth

rate of 16% for the first 3 years and

8% thereafter. Each share of stock

just received an annual $3.24

dividend per share. The appropriate

discount rate is 15%. What is the

value of the common stock under

this scenario?

4.40

Growth Phases

Model Example

0

D1

D2

D3

D4

D5

D6

Growth of 8% to infinity!

at time t=0 for 3 years and is followed by 8% thereafter

starting at time t=3. We should view the time line as two

separate time lines in the valuation.

4.41

Growth Phases

Model Example

0

D1

D2

D3

Growth Phase

#1 plus the infinitely

long Phase #2

D4

D5

D6

Growth Model

4.42

Growth Phases

Model Example

D

4

V3 =

k-g

0

dividends grow at a constant 8%

rate beginning at the end of Year 3.

D4

D5

D6

to infinity with the value at time t=3, V3! Simpler!!

4.43

Growth Phases

Model Example

0

D1

D2

D3

New Time

Line

Where

V3

D4

V3 =

k-g

calculate the necessary cash flows.

4.44

Growth Phases

Model Example

Determine the annual dividends.

D0 = $3.24 (this has been paid already)

D1 = D0(1 + g1)1 = $3.24(1.16)1 =$3.76

D2 = D0(1 + g1)2 = $3.24(1.16)2 =$4.36

D3 = D0(1 + g1)3 = $3.24(1.16)3 =$5.06

D4 = D3(1 + g2)1 = $5.06(1.08)1 =$5.46

4.45

Growth Phases

Model Example

0

0

Actual

Values

3

78

Where $78 =

5.46

0.150.08

of the cash flows.

4.46

Growth Phases

Model Example

We determine the PV of cash flows.

PV(D1) = D1(PVIF15%, 1) = $3.76 (0.870) = $3.27

PV(D2) = D2(PVIF15%, 2) = $4.36 (0.756) = $3.30

PV(D3) = D3(PVIF15%, 3) = $5.06 (0.658) = $3.33

P3 = $5.46 / (0.15 - 0.08) = $78 [CG Model]

4.47

Growth Phases

Model Example

Finally, we calculate the intrinsic value by

summing all of cash flow present values.

V = $61.22

3 D0(1 +0.16)t

V=

t

(1

+0.15)

t=1

4.48

D4

(1+0.15)n (0.150.08)

Problem using CF Registry

Steps in the Process (Page 1)

4.49

Step 1:

Press CF

Step 2:

Press 2nd

Step 3: For CF0 Press

key

CLR Work keys

0

Enter

keys

Step 4:

Step 5:

Step 6:

Step 7:

3.76

1

4.36

1

For F01 Press

For C02 Press

For F02 Press

Enter

Enter

Enter

Enter

keys

keys

keys

keys

Problem using CF Registry

Steps in the Process (Page 2)

Step 8: For C03 Press 83.06 Enter

Step 9: For F03 Press

1 Enter

Step 10:

Press

Step 11:

Press NPV

Step 12:

Press

15 Enter

Step 13:

Press CPT

keys

keys

keys

keys

(Actual - rounding error in tables)

4.50

Calculating Rates of

Return (or Yields)

Steps to calculate the rate of

return (or Yield).

1. Determine the expected cash flows.

flows

2. Replace the intrinsic value (V) with

the market price (P0).

3. Solve for the market required rate of

return that equates the discounted

cash flows to the market price.

price

4.51

Determine the Yield-to-Maturity

(YTM) for the annual coupon paying

bond with a finite life.

P0 =

t=1

I

(1 + kd )t

= I (PVIFA k

MV

+

(1 + kd )n

) + MV (PVIF kd , n)

d,n

kd = YTM

4.52

Julie Miller want to determine the YTM

for an issue of outstanding bonds at

Basket Wonders (BW). BW has an

issue of 10% annual coupon bonds

with 15 years left to maturity. The

bonds have a current market value of

$1,250.

$1,250

What is the YTM?

4.53

4.54

$1,250 =

$100(PVIFA9%,15) +

$1,000(PVIF9%, 15)

$1,250 =

$100(8.061) +

$1,000(0.275)

$1,250 =

$806.10 + $275.00

$1,081.10

[Rate is too high!]

$1,250 = $100(PVIFA7%,15) +

$1,000(PVIF7%, 15)

$1,250 = $100(9.108) +

$1,000(0.362)

$1,250 =

$910.80 + $362.00

= $1,272.80

4.55

0.02

0.07 $1,273

IRR $1,250

$23

$192

0.09 $1,081

X

0.02

4.56

$23

$192

0.02

0.07 $1,273

IRR $1,250

$23

$192

0.09 $1,081

X

0.02

4.57

$23

$192

0.02

0.07 $1273

YTM $1250

$23

$192

0.09 $1081

X = ($23)(0.02)

$192

X = 0.0024

4.58

YTM Solution

on the Calculator

Inputs

15

N

Compute

N:

I/Y:

PV:

PMT:

FV:

4.59

I/Y

-1,250

100

+$1,000

PV

PMT

FV

Compute -- Solving for the annual YTM

Cost to purchase is $1,250

$100 annual interest (10% x $1,000 face value)

$1,000 (investor receives face value in 15 years)

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

Determining Semiannual

Coupon Bond YTM

Determine the Yield-to-Maturity

(YTM) for the semiannual coupon

paying bond with a finite life.

P0 =

2n

t=1

I/2

(1 + kd

+

/2 )

t

= (I/2)(PVIFAk

MV

(1 + kd /2 )2n

) + MV(PVIFkd /2 , 2n)

d /2, 2n

4.60

Coupon Bond YTM

Julie Miller want to determine the YTM

for another issue of outstanding

bonds. The firm has an issue of 8%

semiannual coupon bonds with 20

years left to maturity. The bonds have

a current market value of $950.

$950

What is the YTM?

4.61

YTM Solution

on the Calculator

Inputs

40

N

Compute

N:

I/Y:

PV:

PMT:

FV:

4.62

I/Y

-950

40

+$1,000

PV

PMT

FV

4.2626% = (kd / 2)

Compute -- Solving for the semiannual yield now

Cost to purchase is $950 today

$40 annual interest (8% x $1,000 face value / 2)

$1,000 (investor receives face value in 15 years)

Van Horne and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer.

Determining Semiannual

Coupon Bond YTM

Determine the Yield-to-Maturity

(YTM) for the semiannual coupon

paying bond with a finite life.

[ (1 + kd / 2)2 ] 1 = YTM

[ (1 + 0.042626)2 ] 1 = 0.0871

or 8.71%

Note: make sure you utilize the calculator

answer in its DECIMAL form.

4.63

Press:

2nd

Bond

12.3104 ENTER

8

ENTER

12.3124 ENTER

95

CPT

ENTER

= kd

4.64

Determining Semiannual

Coupon Bond YTM

This technique will calculate kd.

You must then substitute it into the

following formula.

[ (1 + kd / 2)2 ] 1 = YTM

[ (1 + 0.0852514/2)2 ] 1 = 0.0871

or 8.71% (same result!)

4.65

Relationship

Discount Bond The market required

rate of return exceeds the coupon rate

(Par > P0 ).

Premium Bond The coupon rate

exceeds the market required rate of

return (P0 > Par).

Par Bond The coupon rate equals the

market required rate of return (P0 = Par).

4.66

Relationship

BOND PRICE ($)

1600

1400

1200

1000

Par

5 Year

600

15 Year

0

0

8

10

12

Coupon Rate

14

16

18

4.67

Bond Price-Yield

Relationship

When interest rates rise,

rise then the

market required rates of return rise

and bond prices will fall.

fall

Assume that the required rate of return on

a 15 year, 10% annual coupon paying bond

rises from 10% to 12%. What happens to

the bond price?

4.68

Relationship

BOND PRICE ($)

1600

1400

1200

1000

Par

5 Year

600

15 Year

0

0

8

10

12

Coupon Rate

14

16

18

4.69

Bond Price-Yield

Relationship (Rising Rates)

The required rate of return on a 15

year, 10% annual coupon paying

bond has risen from 10% to 12%.

Therefore, the bond price has fallen

from $1,000 to $864.

($863.78 on calculator)

4.70

Bond Price-Yield

Relationship

When interest rates fall,

fall then the

market required rates of return fall

and bond prices will rise.

rise

Assume that the required rate of

return on a 15 year, 10% annual

coupon paying bond falls from 10% to

8%. What happens to the bond price?

4.71

Relationship

BOND PRICE ($)

1600

1400

1200

1000

Par

5 Year

600

15 Year

0

0

10

12

14

16

18

Coupon Rate

4.72

(Declining Rates)

The required rate of return on a 15

year, 10% coupon paying bond

has fallen from 10% to 8%.

Therefore, the bond price has

risen from $1000 to $1171.

($1,171.19 on calculator)

4.73

The longer the bond maturity, the

greater the change in bond price for a

given change in the market required

rate of return.

Assume that the required rate of return

on both the 5 and 15 year, 10% annual

coupon paying bonds fall from 10% to

8%. What happens to the changes in

bond prices?

4.74

Relationship

BOND PRICE ($)

1600

1400

1200

1000

Par

5 Year

600

15 Year

0

0

8

10

12

Coupon Rate

14

16

18

4.75

The required rate of return on both the

5 and 15 year, 10% annual coupon

paying bonds has fallen from 10% to

8%.

The 5 year bond price has risen from $1,000 to

$1,080 for the 5 year bond (+8.0%).

The 15 year bond price has risen from $1,000 to

$1,171 (+17.1%). Twice as fast!

4.76

Coupon Rate

For a given change in the

market required rate of return,

the price of a bond will change

by proportionally more, the

lower the coupon rate.

4.77

the Coupon Rate

Assume that the market required rate of

return on two equally risky 15 year bonds

is 10%. The annual coupon rate for Bond

H is 10% and Bond L is 8%.

What is the rate of change in each of the

bond prices if market required rates fall

to 8%?

4.78

Coupon Rate

The price on Bond H and L prior to the

change in the market required rate of

return is $1,000 and $848 respectively.

The price for Bond H will rise from $1,000

to $1,171 (+17.1%).

The price for Bond L will rise from $848 to

$1,000 (+17.9%). Faster Increase!

4.79

Preferred Stock

Determine the yield for preferred

stock with an infinite life.

P0 = DivP / kP

Solving for kP such that

kP = DivP / P0

4.80

Example

Assume that the annual dividend on

each share of preferred stock is $10.

Each share of preferred stock is

currently trading at $100. What is the

yield on preferred stock?

kP = $10 / $100.

kP = 10%.

10%

4.81

Common Stock

Assume the constant growth model

is appropriate. Determine the yield

on the common stock.

P0 = D1 / ( ke g )

Solving for ke such that

ke = ( D1 / P0 ) + g

4.82

Common Stock

Yield Example

Assume that the expected dividend

(D1) on each share of common stock

is $3. Each share of common stock

is currently trading at $30 and has an

expected growth rate of 5%. What is

the yield on common stock?

ke = ( $3 / $30 ) + 5%

ke = 10% + 5% = 15%

4.83

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