The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not

reflect the official policy or viewpoints of any governments or

organizations.

IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICA
L DEVELOPMENT ON DEFEN
SE PLANNING IN EAST ASIA
Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, PhD

New Phase in East Asian Security

Upgrades to the next generation of military hardware

Speed, range, firepower, power projection, maneuverability, precision, presence, sustain

ability, etc.
Platforms: Aircraft/vessels/vehicles (manned/unmanned), ISR, networks, robotics, strate
gic weapons, etc.

States must think about security in multiple dimensions

Wider range of instruments/options to fight wars (small/large actors)
Wider range of high-tech tools available to each combatant
Diversification of capabilities/battlespace, and operations

Increased sophistication in management of the military

Ground
Maritime
Air
Outerspace
Cyberspace

Military Modernization in East

Asia
Risk

Enablers

Military modernization reflects industrial cap

acity
R&D, access to technology

Assets

Vulnerabiliti
es

Threats

Maturing defense indust

ries
Import, imitate, innovate

Political-economic motives

Self-reliance
Prestige and pride
Export opportunities

Military Modernization (New Hardware) in East

Asia

How new technologies are bein

g, or will be used

Power projection
Ballistic missile defense
Command and Control
Amphibious capabilities
Cyber/electronic capabilities
Information systems
Outer-space

General themes
Increase effective and efficiency f
or operations
Deterrence, intelligence, surveilla
nce, reconnaissance
Quick, precise warfare
*Particular technologies are made f
or particular purposes

Military Modernization (Upgrades) in East

Asia

Military modernization also

taking place in less obvious
ways

Incremental upgrades
Command

and control
Communication devices
Navigational instruments
Operation instruments
ISR systems
Armaments
Force multipliers (e.g. refuelin
g)
etc.

Establishment and reconfigu

ration of new operations and
concepts
Source: JMSDF

Military Modernization (?) in East Asia

Asymmetric capabilities i
nnovation in the use of we
apons
North Korea
Use

of old/simple technol
ogies, and modifications t
o compensate for technol
ogical inferiority
Asymmetric warfare the o
nly option

Weaker capabilities, but

but effective in initial pe
netration/provocation

Impact on East Asia Security Risks

Increase concerns

Military modernization mixed with politicized issues and transition

Increased sophistication and lowered rules of engagement?
Not

so much about states arming to attack, but how they avoid conflict thro
ugh coercion
Conflict caused by miscalculation, miscommunication, and misinterpretatio
n

Greater accesibility to weapons by non-state actors

Debatable

Geopolitical issues not always the cause

Recent

Natural process change in warfare and the military institution

Clearer

inter-state frictions accelerate/bolster military modernization

conceptualization of threats, scenarios, and missions

Technology Certain aspect of military capability, but policies/strate

gies matter more

The Military Institution: Capabilities and F

unctions

Military
Capability
Force
Structure
Platforms
Platforms

Infrastruct
Infrastruct
ure
ure

Operationa
l
Preparedn
ess

Personnel
Personnel
Manageme
Manageme
nt
nt

The military creates the conditions to achieve po

litical ends, yet its functions have diversified

Greater defense planning complexities and liabili

ties

Supplies
Supplies

Vehicles
Vehicles
Weapons
Weapons

Facilities
Facilities
Network
Network

Training
Training
Education
Education

Energy
Energy
Spares
Spares
Food
Food
Logistics
Logistics

Deterrence and combat

Diplomacy/stabilization
ISR
R&D
HA/DR

Greater reliance on tech

nology
Diversified functions
Reconfigurations requir
ed to adapt to new tech
nologies

Problems in Defense Planning

Integration and coordination

Policies/strategies/operations/tactics
hardware and software
Force

structure
Operational preparedness

Complexity

Governa
nce

Systems integration and inter-operability

in operations

Capacity

Costs
Resources

Ethics

Practice
s

Process
es

Laws

Balancing

investment vs. consumption

switching costs

R&D
Acquisition

and mastering technology

Organizational adaptability

Education and training

Knowledge,

skills, practices, ethics, etc.

Operations
Controlling

the use of weapons

Vulnerability of systems

Future of Technology in Defense Planning

Sovereign states have the right to pursue capabilities for national defen
se as long as they do not destabilize regional security
Domestic and regional measures needed to ensure regional security

National defense Operational realignments

Balance

between investment and consumption

Align policies/strategies/operations/tactics with capabilities
Adapt to transitional realities and conditions
Focus on the capabilities essential to sharpening national defense capabilities

Region Mitigate and prevent regional tensions

Decelerate

arms competition/conflict via regional/international agreements

Arms control
Export control
Code of conduct
Confidence building measures
Transparency and information sharing
Military cooperation (alliances and beyond)

Most vital Politics

Improving

political relations between states and facilitating an environment for peace

and stability

Thank You!

Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi

Ryo.Hinata.Yamaguchi@gmail.com