Lecture 05

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PROJECT SCHEDULING

THE WAY TO OPTIMIZE YOUR RESOURCES

AND SAVE YOUR MONEY AND TIME
UEME4253 Project Management

PERT and CPM

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Program

Evaluation and Review

Technique (PERT)
U.S. Navy, Booz-Allen Hamilton, and Lockheed
Aircraft
probabilistic activity durations
Critical Path Method (CPM)
Dupont De Nemours Inc.
deterministic activity durations
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The Language of PERT/CPM

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Activity

a task or set of tasks

uses resources and time

Event

an identifiable state resulting from completion of one or more

activities
consumes no resources or time
predecessor activities must be completed

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The Language of PERT/CPM continued

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Milestones

identifiable and noteworthy events that mark significant

progress

Network

a diagram of nodes (activities or events) and arrows

(directional arcs) that illustrate the technological
relationships of activities

Path

a series of connected activities between two events

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The Language of PERT/CPM concluded

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Critical Path

the set of activities on a path (from the projects start event to

its finish event) that, if delayed, will delay the completion date
of the project

Critical Time

the time required to complete all activities on the critical path

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Building the Network

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There are two ways of displaying a project

network
Activities on Arrows (AOA) network in which the activities

are shown as arrows and events as nodes

Activities on Nodes (AON) network in which each task is
shown as a node and the technological relationship is shown by
the arrows

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AON Network Stage 1

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AON Network - Stage 2

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AON Network - Complete

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AOA Network Stage 1

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AOA network Stage 2

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AOA Network - Complete

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AOA Network Showing The Use of a Dummy Task

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Construct the Network (AOA Version)

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Dummy Activity

Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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Task e depends on task a and b and task d depends

on task a, b and c.
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Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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Task d depends on task a, task e depends on task a

and b and task f depends on task b and c.
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Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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Information Contents in an AON Node

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ES

Activity
name

LS

EF
ES - Earliest start time
EF - Earliest finish time
Activity
LS - Latest start time
duration
LF - Latest finish time

LF

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Calculating Activity Slack

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Latest Start Time (LS) Earliest Start Time (ES) =

Slack
Latest Finish time (LF) Earliest Finish time (EF) =
Slack

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Calculating Probabilistic Activity Times

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The expected time (TE) is based on three

time estimates

pessimistic (B) Estimated Duration for the

task that the actual finish time will be b or
greater less than 1% of the time (almost never
level)

most likely (m)

optimistic (A)

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The Statistical Distribution of all Possible Times for

an Activity
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Activity Expected Time and Variance

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( a 4m b)
TE
6
(b a)

6 is not weighted
average but rather an
assumption that the
range of the
distribution covers six
standard deviation

(b a )
Var

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95 Percent Level
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Task will be a or lower 5 percent of the time

Task will be b or greater 5 percent of the time

(b a )

3.3

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90 Percent Level
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Task will be a or lower 10 percent of the time

Task will be b or greater 10 percent of the time

(b a )

2.6

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The Probability of Completing the Project on Time

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D = The desired project

completion time

(D )

= the sum of the TE

activities on the path
being investigated
2 = the variance of the
path being considered
(the sum of the variance
of the activities on the
path)

=NORMDIST(D,,,TRUE)
Note: NORMDIST is a function within
Excel when using the spreadsheet
method
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Selecting Risk and Finding D

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DZ

NORMINV(probability,,,TRUE
)
Note: NORMMINV is a function within
Excel when using the spreadsheet method
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Traditional Statistics Versus Simulations

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Similarity

both procedures assume that task durations are statistically

independent and the paths are independent

Difference

a simulation can circumvent the assumption of statistical

independence by including the activity or path dependencies as
part of the model

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Gantt Chart of a Sample Project

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Gantt Chart of Sample Project Showing Critical Path, Path

Connections, Slack, ES, LS, EF, and LF
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Extensions to PERT/CPM
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Finish to Start (F to S)
finish of Activity A to start of Activity B

Start to Start (S to S)
start of Activity A to start of Activity B

Finish to Finish (F to F)
finish of Activity A to finish of Activity B

Start to Finish (S to F)
start of Activity A to finish of Activity B

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Precedence Diagramming Conventions

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Example
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Microsoft Project Gantt Chart

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Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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Microsoft Project AON Network

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Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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Example
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Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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Example
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Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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Solving the Network (PERT)

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Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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The AON Network

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Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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Calculating Activity Times

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a 4m b
TE
6

b a

Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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The Results
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Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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Critical Path and Time

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Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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Critical Path and Time Continued

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Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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Slack
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Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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Slack Values
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Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

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Example
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(D )

50 43

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7
1.22
5.745

D 2 Z 43 5.7451.645 52.45

Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

UEME4253 Project Management

Example - PERT
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Find:
1. The network
2. All expected activity times, variances, and slacks.
3. The critical path and expected completion time.
4. The probability the project will be done in 23 days.
5. The completion time corresponding to 95% probability.
Lecture 6-Project Activity Scheduling

UEME4253 Project Management