Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Outlook
By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS
Presentation at NAR Leadership Summit
Chicago, IL
August 10, 2015
Jobs
(8 million lost 12 million gained)
145,000
140,000
135,000
130,000
125,000
120,000
In thousands
Worst
12 months
Utah
4.0%
-0.7%
Florida
3.8%
West
Virginia
Oregon
3.4%
Washingto
n
3.4%
Maine
0.5%
Montana
0.6%
California
3.2%
Alaska
0.6%
Georgia
3.2%
North
Dakota
3.2%
Nevada
3.0%
Mississippi 0.5%
Too Hot
(jobs in thousands)
Seattle
+200,000 from
2010
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1450
1400
1350
Denver
1300
1250
+250,000
1200
1150
2010
1100
1050
1000
from
Detroit Jobs
(+300,000 net new jobs from 2010)
2300
2200
2100
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
2011
2011
2011
2011
- 2011
Jan
- 2011
Feb
- 2011
Mar
- 2011
Apr
- 2011
May
- June
2011
- 2011
July
- 2011
Aug
- Sep
2012
- 2012
Oct
- Nov
2012- Dec
2012-Apr
- 2012
Jan
- 2012
Feb
Mar
2012
2012
- 2012
May
- June
2012
-2012
-Jul
2012
Aug
- Sep
2013
- 2013
Oct
- 2013
Nov
- 2013
Dec
- 2013
Jan
- 2013
Feb
- Mar
-2013
2013
Apr
- 2013
May
- 2013
Jun
-2013
-Jul
2013
Aug
- Sep
2014
- 2014
Oct
- 2014
Nov
- 2014
Dec
- 2014
Jan
- 2014
Feb
- Mar
-2014
2014
Apr
- 2014
May
- 2014
Jun
-2014
-Jul
2014
Aug
- Sep
2015
- 2015
Oct
- 2015
Nov
- 2015
Dec
- 2015
Jan
- 2015
Feb
- Mar
- Apr
- May
- Jun
Source: NAR
Distressed Sales
Foreclosure
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Short-Sale
Trade-Up Opportunities
from Housing Equity
Real Estate Value
25000 $ billion
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Mortgage Debt
New
Existing
2015
Loose Credit
2.1 m housing starts
Second Scenario
Not Desirable
Desirable
Housing Starts
Thousand units
Multifamily
600
400
200
0
Single-family
2000
1500
1000
500
0
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
Louis XV
King of France
from 1715 to
1774
Great leaders do
not leave behind
deluge; rather
they build solid
foundations for
future prosperity.
U.S. Dollar
Reversing the Decline Stronger and Stronger
Dollar Strength Index Trade Weighted
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Washington Risks
TRID?
Mortgage Availability?
Tax Preference Changes?
571
424
423
362
355
299
212
130
233
174
147
67
470
500
37%
5%
4% 14%
40%
1-3
4-6
7 - 12
More than 12
None
16%
10% to 24%
55%
25% to 49%
50% to 100%
16%
5%
7%