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Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-1

decision rules

Single Sample: Testing Population Mean,

Two Sample: Testing Difference two means

Tests on Proportion, p

Tests on Variance, 2

Goodness-of-Fit Test

Test for Independence

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-2

What is a Hypothesis?

A hypothesis is a claim

(assumption) about a

population parameter:

population mean

Example: The mean monthly cell phone bill

of this city is = $42

population proportion

Example: The proportion of adults in this

city with cell phones is p = .68

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-3

States the assumption (numerical) to be

tested

Example: The average number of TV sets in

H0 : ) 3

homes is equal to three (

not about a sample statistic

H0 : 3

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

H0 : X 3

Chap 10-4

(continued)

hypothesis is true

Similar to the notion of innocent until

proven guilty

Refers to the status quo

Always contains = , or sign

May or may not be rejected

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-5

Is the opposite of the null hypothesis

e.g., The average number of TV sets in homes

is not equal to 3 ( H1: 3 )

Never contains the = , or sign

May or may not be proven

Is generally the hypothesis that the

researcher is trying to prove

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-6

Claim: the

population

mean age is 50.

(Null Hypothesis:

H0: = 50 )

Population

Is X 20 likely if = 50?

If not likely,

REJECT

Null Hypothesis

Suppose

the sample

mean age

is 20: X = 20

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Now select a

random sample

Sample

Sampling Distribution of X

20

If it is unlikely that

we would get a

sample mean of

this value ...

= 50

If H0 is true

the population mean

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

... then we

reject the null

hypothesis that

= 50.

Chap 10-8

Level of Significance,

Defines the unlikely values of the sample

statistic if the null hypothesis is true

Defines rejection region of the sampling

distribution

Is designated by , (level of significance)

Typical values are .01, .05, or .10

Is selected by the researcher at the beginning

Provides the critical value(s) of the test

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-9

Level of Significance

and the Rejection Region

Level of significance =

H0: = 3

H1: 3

H0: 3

H1: > 3

H0: 3

H1: < 3

/2

Two-tail test

/2

Represents

critical value

Rejection

region is

shaded

Upper-tail test

Lower-tail test

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

0

Chap 10-10

Type I Error

Reject a true null hypothesis

Considered a serious type of error

The probability of Type I Error is

Called level of significance of the test

Set by researcher in advance

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-11

(continued)

Type II Error

Fail to reject a false null hypothesis

The probability of Type II Error is

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-12

Possible Hypothesis Test Outcomes

Decision

Key:

Outcome

(Probability)

Actual

Situation

H0 True

H0 False

Do Not

Reject

H0

No error

(1 - )

Type II Error

()

Reject

H0

Type I Error

()

No Error

(1-)

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-13

Type I and Type II errors can not happen at

the same time

If Type I error probability ( )

, then

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-14

All else equal,

when the difference between

hypothesized parameter and its true value

when

when

when

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-15

Review: 10 Steps in

Hypothesis Testing

1. State the null hypothesis, H0

2. State the alternative hypotheses, H1

3. Choose the level of significance,

4. Choose the sample size, n

5. Determine the appropriate statistical

technique and the test statistic to use

6. Find the critical values and determine the

rejection region(s)

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-16

Review: 10 Steps in

Hypothesis Testing

7. Collect data and compute the test statistic

from the sample result

8. Compare the test statistic to the critical

value to determine whether the test statistics

falls in the region of rejection

9. Make the statistical decision: Reject H0 if the

test statistic falls in the rejection region

10. Express the decision in the context of the

problem

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-17

Hypothesis

Tests for

Known

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Unknown

Chap 10-18

for Single Mean ( Known)

Convert sample statistic ( X ) to a Z test statistic

Hypothesis

Tests for

Known

Unknown

X

Z

n

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-19

Critical Value

Approach to Testing

For two tailed test for the mean, known:

Convert sample statistic ( X) to test statistic (Z

statistic )

Determine the critical Z values for a specified

level of significance from a table or computer

Decision Rule: If the test statistic falls in the

rejection region, reject H0 ; otherwise do not

reject H0

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-20

Test the claim that the true mean # of TV

sets in homes is equal to 3.

(Assume = 0.8)

1-2. State the appropriate null and alternative

hypotheses

H0: = 3

H1: 3 (This is a two tailed test)

3. Specify the desired level of significance

Suppose that = .05 is chosen for this test

4. Choose a sample size

Suppose a sample of size n = 100 is selected

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-21

(continued)

is known so this is a Z test

6. Set up the critical values

For = .05 the critical Z values are 1.96

7. Collect the data and compute the test statistic

Suppose the sample results are

n = 100, X = 2.84 ( = 0.8 is assumed known)

So the test statistic is:

Z

X

2.84 3

.16

2.0

0.8

.08

n

100

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-22

(continued)

= .05/2

Reject H0 if

Z < -1.96 or

Z > 1.96;

otherwise

do not

reject H0

Reject H0

-Z= -1.96

= .05/2

Do not reject H0

Reject H0

+Z= +1.96

test statistic is in the rejection

region

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-23

(continued)

= .05/2

Reject H0

-Z= -1.96

= .05/2

Do not reject H0

Reject H0

+Z= +1.96

-2.0

and conclude that there is sufficient evidence that the

mean number of TVs in US homes is not equal to 3

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-24

p-value: Probability of obtaining a test

statistic more extreme ( or ) than the

observed sample value given H0 is true

Also called observed level of significance

Smallest value of for which H0 can be

rejected

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-25

(continued)

Statistic (e.g., Z statistic )

Obtain the p-value from a table or computer

Compare the p-value with

If p-value < , reject H0

If p-value , do not reject H0

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-26

p-Value Example

Example: How likely is it to see a sample mean of

2.84 (or something further from the mean, in either

direction) if the true mean is = 3.0?

X = 2.84 is translated

to a Z score of Z = -2.0

P(Z 2.0) .0228

P(Z 2.0) .0228

/2 = .025

/2 = .025

.0228

.0228

p-value

=.0228 + .0228 = .0456

-1.96

-2.0

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

1.96

2.0

Z

Chap 10-27

p-Value Example

Compare the p-value with

(continued)

If p-value , do not reject H0

Here: p-value = .0456

= .05

Since .0456 < .05, we

reject the null

hypothesis

/2 = .025

/2 = .025

.0228

.0228

-1.96

-2.0

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

1.96

2.0

Z

Chap 10-28

For X = 2.84, = 0.8 and n = 100, the 95%

confidence interval is:

0.8

2.84 - (1.96)

to

100

0.8

2.84 (1.96)

100

2.6832 2.9968

Since this interval does not contain the hypothesized

mean (3.0), we reject the null hypothesis at = .05

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Two-Tail Tests

There are two

cutoff values

(critical values),

defining the

regions of

rejection

H0: = 3

H1 :

3

/2

/2

X

3

Reject H0

-Z

Lower

critical

value

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Do not reject H0

Reject H0

+Z

Upper

critical

value

Chap 10-30

One-Tail Tests

In many cases, the alternative hypothesis

focuses on a particular direction

H0: 3

H1: < 3

H0: 3

H1: > 3

alternative hypothesis is focused on

the lower tail below the mean of 3

This is an upper-tail test since the

alternative hypothesis is focused on

the upper tail above the mean of 3

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-31

Lower-Tail Tests

There is only one

critical value, since

the rejection area is

in only one tail

H0: 3

H1: < 3

Reject H0

-Z

Do not reject H0

Z

X

Critical value

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-32

Upper-Tail Tests

There is only one

critical value, since

the rejection area is

in only one tail

H0: 3

H1: > 3

Do not reject H0

Reject H0

Critical value

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-33

for Mean ( Known)

A phone industry manager thinks that

customer monthly cell phone bill have

increased, and now average over $52 per

month. The company wishes to test this

claim. (Assume = 10 is known)

Form hypothesis test:

H0: 52 the average is not over $52 per month

H1: > 52

(i.e., sufficient evidence exists to support the

managers claim)

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-34

(continued)

Find the rejection region:

Reject H0

= .10

Do not reject H0

1.28

Reject H0

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-35

Review:

One-Tail Critical Value

What is Z given = 0.10?

.90

.10

= .10

.90

Standard Normal

Distribution Table (Portion)

0 1.28

.07

.08

.09

1.2 .8980 .8997 .9015

1.3 .9147 .9162 .9177

Critical Value

= 1.28

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-36

(continued)

Suppose a sample is taken with the following

results: n = 64, X = 53.1 (=10 was assumed known)

Then the test statistic is:

X

53.1 52

Z

0.88

10

n

64

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-37

Example: Decision

(continued)

Reject H0

= .10

Do not reject H0

1.28

0

Z = .88

Reject H0

i.e.: there is not sufficient evidence that the

mean bill is over $52

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-38

p -Value Solution

Calculate the p-value and compare to

(continued)

p-value = .1894

Reject H0

= .10

0

Do not reject H0

1.28

Z = .88

Reject H0

P( X 53.1)

53.1 52.0

P Z

10/ 64

.1894

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-39

for Single Mean ( Unknown)

Convert sample statistic ( X ) to a t test statistic

Hypothesis

Tests for

Known

Unknown

The test statistic is:

t n-1

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

S

n

Chap 10-40

The average cost of a

hotel room in New York

is said to be $168 per

night. A random sample

of 25 hotels resulted in

X = $172.50 and

S = $15.40. Test at the

= 0.05 level.

H0: = 168

H1:

168

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-41

H0: = 168

H1:

168

= 0.05

/2=.025

Reject H0

-t n-1,/2

-2.0639

n = 25

is unknown, so

use a t statistic

Critical Value:

t24 = 2.0639

t n1

/2=.025

Do not reject H0

1.46

Reject H0

t n-1,/2

2.0639

X

172.50 168

1.46

S

15.40

n

25

true mean cost is different than $168

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-42

For X = 172.5, S = 15.40 and n = 25, the 95%

confidence interval is:

172.5 - (2.0639) 15.4/ 25

166.14 178.86

Since this interval contains the Hypothesized mean (168),

we do not reject the null hypothesis at = .05

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Means

Population means,

independent

samples

1 and 2 known

1 and 2 unknown

a confidence interval for the

difference between two

population means, 1 2

The point estimate for the

difference is

X1 X2

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-44

Independent Samples

Population means,

independent

samples

Unrelated

Independent

Sample selected from one

population has no effect on

the sample selected from

the other population

1 and 2 known

1 and 2 unknown

sample means

Use Z test or pooled variance

t test

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-45

Population means,

independent

samples

1 and 2 known

1 and 2 unknown

, use a t test statistic and

pooled standard deviation

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-46

1 and 2 Known

Population means,

independent

samples

1 and 2 known

1 and 2 unknown

Assumptions:

independently drawn

population distributions are

normal or both sample sizes

are 30

Population standard

deviations are known

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-47

1 and 2 Known

(continued)

Population means,

independent

samples

1 and 2 known

both populations are normal or

both sample sizes are at least 30,

the test statistic is a Z-value

X1 X2 is

1 and 2 unknown

X1 X2

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

2

1

n1

n2

Chap 10-48

1 and 2 Known

(continued)

Population means,

independent

samples

1 and 2 known

1 2 is:

X

Z

1 and 2 unknown

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

X 2 1 2

2

1

n1

n2

Chap 10-49

Two Population Means

Two Population Means, Independent Samples

Lower-tail test:

Upper-tail test:

Two-tail test:

H0: 1 2

H1: 1 < 2

H0: 1 2

H1: 1 > 2

H0: 1 = 2

H1: 1 2

i.e.,

i.e.,

i.e.,

H0: 1 2 0

H1: 1 2 < 0

H0: 1 2 0

H1: 1 2 > 0

H0: 1 2 = 0

H1: 1 2 0

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-50

Two Population Means, Independent Samples

Lower-tail test:

Upper-tail test:

Two-tail test:

H0: 1 2 0

H1: 1 2 < 0

H0: 1 2 0

H1: 1 2 > 0

H0: 1 2 = 0

H1: 1 2 0

-z

Reject H0 if Z < -Z

z

Reject H0 if Z > Z

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

/2

-z/2

/2

z/2

or Z > Z/2

Chap 10-51

1 and 2 Unknown

Assumptions:

Population means,

independent

samples

independently drawn

1 and 2 known

1 and 2 unknown

distributed or both sample

sizes are at least 30

Population variances are

unknown but assumed equal

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-52

1 and 2 Unknown

(continued)

Forming interval

estimates:

Population means,

independent

samples

1 and 2 known

1 and 2 unknown

are assumed equal, so use

the two sample standard

deviations and pool them to

estimate

the test statistic is a t value

with (n1 + n2 2) degrees

of freedom

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-53

1 and 2 Unknown

(continued)

Population means,

independent

samples

deviation is

1 and 2 known

1 and 2 unknown

Sp

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

n1 1 S12 n2 1 S2 2

(n1 1) (n2 1)

Chap 10-54

1 and 2 Unknown

(continued)

1 2 is:

Population means,

independent

samples

X

t

1 and 2 known

1 and 2 unknown

X 2 1 2

1 1

S

n1 n2

2

p

and

S

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

2

p

2

2

n1 1 S1 n2 1 S 2

(n1 1) (n2 1)

Chap 10-55

You are a financial analyst for a brokerage firm. Is there

a difference in dividend yield between stocks listed on the

NYSE & NASDAQ? You collect the following data:

NYSE

Number

21

Sample mean

3.27

Sample std dev 1.30

NASDAQ

25

2.53

1.16

approximately normal with

equal variances, is

there a difference in average

yield ( = 0.05)?

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-56

The test statistic is:

X

t

X 2 1 2

1 1

S

n1 n2

2

p

3.27 2.53 0

1

1

1.5021

21 25

2

2

2

2

1

S

1

S

21

1

1.30

25

1

1.16

1

2

2

S2 1

(n1 1) (n2 1)

(21 - 1) (25 1)

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

2.040

1.5021

Chap 10-57

Solution

H0: 1 - 2 = 0 i.e. (1 = 2)

Reject H0

Reject H0

H1: 1 - 2 0 i.e. (1 2)

= 0.05

df = 21 + 25 - 2 = 44

Critical Values: t = 2.0154

.025

-2.0154

.025

0 2.0154

2.040

Decision:

Test Statistic:

3.27 2.53

t

2.040 Reject H0 at = 0.05

1

1

1.5021

Conclusion:

21 25

There is evidence of a

difference in means.

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-58

Paired Observations

Tests Means of 2 Related Populations

Related

samples

Repeated measures (before/after)

Use difference between paired values:

D = X1 - X2

Eliminates Variation Among Subjects

Assumptions:

Both Populations Are Normally Distributed

Or, if Not Normal, use large samples

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-59

The ith paired difference is Di , where

Related

samples

Di = X1i - X2i

The point estimate for

the population mean

paired difference is D :

D

i 1

standard deviation of the

difference scores, D, is known

n is the number of pairs in the paired sample

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-60

(continued)

Paired

samples

difference is a Z value:

D D

Z

D

n

Where

D = hypothesized mean difference

D = population standard dev. of differences

n = the sample size (number of pairs)

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-61

Paired

samples

D

DZ

n

Where

n = the sample size

(number of pairs in the paired sample)

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-62

Related

samples

unknown population standard deviation

with a sample standard deviation:

The sample standard

deviation is

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

SD

2

(D

D

)

i

i1

n 1

Chap 10-63

(continued)

Paired

samples

t statistic, with n-1 d.f.:

D D

t

SD

n

n

and SD is:

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

SD

(D

i 1

D)

n 1

Chap 10-64

Paired

samples

SD

D t n1

n

n

where

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

SD

(D D)

i1

n 1

Chap 10-65

Mean Difference, D Unknown

Paired Samples

Lower-tail test:

Upper-tail test:

Two-tail test:

H0: D 0

H1: D < 0

H0: D 0

H1: D > 0

H0: D = 0

H1: D 0

-t

Reject H0 if t < -t

t

Reject H0 if t > t

Where t has n - 1 d.f.

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

/2

-t/2

/2

t/2

Reject H0 if t < -t

or t > t

Chap 10-66

Assume you send your salespeople to a customer

service training workshop. Is the training effective?

You collect the following data:

Number of Complaints:

(2) - (1)

Salesperson Before (1) After (2)

Difference, Di

C.B.

T.F.

M.H.

R.K.

M.O.

6

20

3

0

4

4

6

2

0

0

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

- 2

-14

- 1

0

- 4

-21

D =

Di

n

= -4.2

SD

(D D)

n 1

5.67

Chap 10-67

Has the training made a difference in the number of

H0: D = 0

H1: D 0

= .01

D = - 4.2

d.f. = n - 1 = 4

SD / n

4.2 0

5.67/ 5

Reject

/2

/2

- 4.604

4.604

- 1.66

(t stat is not in the reject region)

Test Statistic:

D D

Reject

1.66

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

significant change in the

number of complaints.

Chap 10-68

Involves categorical variables

Two possible outcomes

Success (possesses a certain characteristic)

Failure (does not possesses that characteristic)

success category is denoted by p

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-69

Proportions

(continued)

denoted by ps

X number of successes in sample

ps n

sample size

can be approximated by a normal distribution

with mean and standard deviation

p(1 p)

p s p

ps

n

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-70

The sampling

distribution of ps is

approximately

normal, so the test

statistic is a Z value:

ps p

p(1 p)

n

Hypothesis

Tests for p

np 5

and

n(1-p) 5

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

np < 5

or

n(1-p) < 5

-Binomial dist., if p is common.

-Poisson dist., If p is very close

to 0 or 1.

Chap 10-71

A marketing company

claims that it receives

8% responses from its

mailing. To test this

claim, a random sample

of 500 were surveyed

with 25 responses. Test

at the = .05

significance level.

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Check:

n p = (500)(.08) = 40

n(1-p) = (500)(.92) = 460

Chap 10-72

Test Statistic:

H0: p = .08

H1: p .

08= .05

n = 500, ps = .05

ps p

p(1 p)

n

Decision:

Reject

Reject

.025

.025

-1.96

1.96

.05 .08

2.47

.08(1 .08)

500

-2.47

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Reject H0 at = .05

Conclusion:

There is sufficient

evidence to reject the

companys claim of 8%

response rate.

Chap 10-73

p-Value Solution

(continued)

(For a two sided test the p-value is always two sided)

Do not reject H0

Reject H0

/2 = .025

Reject H0

p-value = .0136:

/2 = .025

.0068

.0068

-1.96

Z = -2.47

2(.0068) 0.0136

1.96

Z = 2.47

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-74

Population

proportions

confidence interval for the difference

between two population proportions,

p1 p2

Assumptions:

n1p1 5 , n1(1-p1) 5

n2p2 5 , n2(1-p2) 5

The point estimate for

the difference is

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

ps1 ps2

Chap 10-75

Population

proportions

hypothesis is true, we assume p1 = p2

and pool the two ps estimates

The pooled estimate for the

overall proportion is:

X1 X 2

p

n1 n2

where X1 and X2 are the numbers from

samples 1 and 2 with the characteristic of

interest

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-76

(continued)

p1 p2 is a Z statistic:

Population

proportions

p

Z

where

s1

p s2 p1 p 2

1 1

p (1 p)

n1 n2

X1 X 2

X

X

, p s1 1 , p s2 2

n1 n2

n1

n2

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-77

Two Population Proportions

Population proportions

Lower-tail test:

Upper-tail test:

Two-tail test:

H0: p1 p2

H1: p1 < p2

H0: p1 p2

H1: p1 > p2

H0: p1 = p2

H1: p1 p2

i.e.,

i.e.,

i.e.,

H0: p1 p2 0

H1: p1 p2 < 0

H0: p1 p2 0

H1: p1 p2 > 0

H0: p1 p2 = 0

H1: p1 p2 0

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-78

Two Population Proportions

(continued)

Population proportions

Lower-tail test:

Upper-tail test:

Two-tail test:

H0: p1 p2 0

H1: p1 p2 < 0

H0: p1 p2 0

H1: p1 p2 > 0

H0: p1 p2 = 0

H1: p1 p2 0

-z

Reject H0 if Z < -Z

z

Reject H0 if Z > Z

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

/2

-z/2

/2

z/2

Reject H0 if Z < -Z

or Z > Z

Chap 10-79

Example:

Two population Proportions

Is there a significant difference between the

proportion of men and the proportion of

women who will vote Yes on Proposition A?

50 women indicated they would vote Yes

Test at the .05 level of significance

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-80

Example:

Two population Proportions

(continued)

H0: p1 p2 = 0 (the two proportions are equal)

H1: p1 p2 0 (there is a significant difference between proportions)

The sample proportions are:

Men:

Women:

X1 X 2 36 31 67

p

.549

n1 n2

72 50 122

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-81

Example:

Two population Proportions

(continued)

z

s1

p s2 p1 p 2

1 1

n1 n2

p (1 p)

.50 .62 0

1

1

72

50

Reject H0

Reject H0

.025

.025

-1.96

-1.31

1.31

.549 (1 .549)

For = .05

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

1.96

Conclusion: There is not

significant evidence of a

difference in proportions

who will vote yes between

men and women.

Chap 10-82

The Chi-square test statistic is:

2

(

n

1

)

s

2

2

0

where:

o2 = value of 2 given by the null hypotheses.

n = sample size.

population variance equals a spesified value o2

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-83

Decision Rule

The 2 test statistic approximately follows a chisquared distribution with one degree of freedom

Decision Rule:

If 2 > 2U, reject H0,

otherwise, do not

reject H0

Do not

reject H0

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Reject H0

2U

Chap 10-84

Tests for Two

Population

Variances

F test statistic

H0: 12 = 22

H1: 12 22

Two-tail test

H0: 12 22

H1: 12 < 22

Lower-tail test

H0: 12 22

H1: 12 > 22

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Upper-tail test

Chap 10-85

(continued)

Population

Variances

F test statistic

2

1

2

2

S

F

S

S 22 = Variance of Sample 2

n2 - 1 = denominator degrees of freedom

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-86

The F Distribution

The F critical value is found from the F table

The are two appropriate degrees of freedom:

numerator and denominator

S12

F 2

S2

where

df1 = n1 1 ; df2 = n2 1

In the F table,

numerator degrees of freedom determine the column

denominator degrees of freedom determine the row

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-87

H0: 12 22

H1: 12 < 22

/2

0

Reject

H0

FL

Do not

reject H0

Reject

H0

FU

Reject H0

FL

Do not

reject H0

FU

rejection

region for a

two-tail test is:

Do not

reject H0

/2

Reject H0 if F < FL

H0: 12 22

H1: 12 > 22

0

H0: 12 = 22

H1: 12 22

Reject H0

S12

F 2 FU

S2

S12

F 2 FL

S2

Reject H0 if F > FU

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-88

(continued)

/2

H0: 12 = 22

H1: 12 22

/2

Reject

H0

1. Find FU from the F table

for n1 1 numerator and

n2 1 denominator

degrees of freedom

FL

Do not

reject H0

FU

Reject H0

1

FU*

n2 1 numerator and n1 1

denominator degrees of freedom

(i.e., switch the d.f. from FU)

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-89

F Test: An Example

You are a financial analyst for a brokerage firm. You want

to compare dividend yields between stocks listed on the

NYSE & NASDAQ. You collect the following data :

NYSE

NASDAQ

Number

2125

Mean

3.272.53

Std dev

1.301.16

Is there a difference in the

variances between the

NYSE

& NASDAQ at the = 0.05 level?

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-90

Form the hypothesis test:

H0: 21 22 = 0 (there is no difference between variances)

H1: 21 22 0 (there is a difference between variances)

Find the F critical values for = .05:

FU:

Numerator:

FL:

Numerator:

n1 1 = 21 1 = 20 d.f.

Denominator:

n2 1 = 25 1 = 24 d.f.

Denominator:

n2 1 = 25 1 = 24 d.f.

n1 1 = 21 1 = 20 d.f.

= .41

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-91

(continued)

2

1

2

2

H0: 12 = 22

H1: 12 22

S

1.30

F

1.256

2

S

1.16

/2 = .025

0

Reject H0

/2 = .025

Do not

reject H0

Reject H0

FU=2.33

F = 1.256 is not in the

FL=0.41

rejection region, so we do not

reject H0

Conclusion: There is not sufficient evidence

of a difference in variances at = .05

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-92

The Chi-square test statistic is:

2

(

f

f

)

2 o e

fe

all cells

where:

fo = observed frequency in a particular cell

fe = expected frequency in a particular cell if H0 is true

2 for the 2 x 2 case has 1 degree of freedom

(Assumed: each cell in the contingency table has expected

frequency of at least 5)

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-93

Decision Rule

The 2 test statistic approximately follows a chisquared distribution with one degree of freedom

Decision Rule:

If 2 > 2U, reject H0,

otherwise, do not

reject H0

Do not

reject H0

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Reject H0

2U

Chap 10-94

X1 X 2 X

The average

p

proportion is:

n1 n2

n

120 Females, 12

were left handed

180 Males, 24 were

left handed

Here:

12 24

36

p

0.12

120 180 300

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-95

To obtain the expected frequency for left handed

females, multiply the average proportion left handed (p)

by the total number of females

To obtain the expected frequency for left handed males,

multiply the average proportion left handed (p) by the

total number of males

If the two proportions are equal, then

P(Left Handed | Female) = P(Left Handed | Male) = .12

i.e., we would expect (.12)(120) = 14.4 females to be left handed

(.12)(180) = 21.6 males to be left handed

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-96

Hand Preference

Gender

Left

Right

Female

Observed = 12

Expected = 14.4

Observed = 108

Expected = 105.6

120

Male

Observed = 24

Expected = 21.6

Observed = 156

Expected = 158.4

180

36

264

300

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-97

Hand Preference

Gender

Left

Right

Female

Observed = 12

Expected = 14.4

Observed = 108

Expected = 105.6

120

Male

Observed = 24

Expected = 21.6

Observed = 156

Expected = 158.4

180

36

264

300

( fo fe )2

fe

all cells

2

0.6848

14.4

105.6

21.6

158.4

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-98

Decision Rule

The test statistic is 2 0.6848 , U2 with 1 d.f. 3.841

Decision Rule:

If 2 > 3.841, reject H0,

otherwise, do not reject H0

Do not

reject H0

Reject H0

2U=3.841

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Here,

2 = 0.6848 < 2U = 3.841,

so we do not reject H0

and conclude that there is

not sufficient evidence

that the two proportions

are different at = .05

Chap 10-99

Similar to the 2 test for equality of more than

two proportions, but extends the concept to

contingency tables with r rows and c columns

H0: The two categorical variables are independent

(i.e., there is no relationship between them)

H1: The two categorical variables are dependent

(i.e., there is a relationship between them)

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-100

2 Test of Independence

(continued)

2

(

f

f

)

2 o e

fe

all cells

where:

fo = observed frequency in a particular cell of the r x c table

fe = expected frequency in a particular cell if H0 is true

2 for the r x c case has (r-1)(c-1) degrees of freedom

(Assumed: each cell in the contingency table has expected

frequency of at least 1)

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-101

Expected cell frequencies:

fe

n

Where:

row total = sum of all frequencies in the row

column total = sum of all frequencies in the column

n = overall sample size

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-102

Decision Rule

The decision rule is

If 2 > 2U, reject H0,

otherwise, do not reject H0

Where 2U is from the chi-squared distribution

with (r 1)(c 1) degrees of freedom

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-103

Example

The meal plan selected by 200 students is shown below:

Number of meals per week

20/week 10/week

Class

Standing

Fresh.

24

32

none

Total

14

70

Soph.

22

26

12

60

Junior

10

14

30

Senior

14

16

10

40

Total

70

88

42

200

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-104

Example

(continued)

(i.e., there is no relationship between them)

H1: Meal plan and class standing are dependent

(i.e., there is a relationship between them)

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-105

Example:

Expected Cell Frequencies

(continued)

Observed:

Number of meals

per week

Class

Standing

20/wk

10/wk

Expected cell

frequencies if H0 is true:

none

Total

Fresh.

24

32

14

70

Soph.

22

26

12

60

Junior

10

14

30

Senior

14

16

10

40

Class

Standing

Total

70

88

42

200

Fresh.

24.5

30.8

14.7

70

Soph.

21.0

26.4

12.6

60

Junior

10.5

13.2

6.3

30

Senior

14.0

17.6

8.4

40

70

88

42

200

fe

n

30 70

10.5

200

Number of meals

per week

Total

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

20/wk

10/wk

none

Total

Chap 10-106

(continued)

2

(

f

f

)

2 o e

fe

all cells

(10 8.4)2

0.709

24.5

30.8

8. 4

distribution with (4 1)(3 1) = 6 degrees of

freedom

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-107

Example:

Decision and Interpretation

(continued)

Decision Rule:

If 2 > 12.592, reject H0,

otherwise, do not reject H0

Do not

reject H0

Reject H0

2U=12.592

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Here,

2 = 0.709 < 2U = 12.592,

so do not reject H0

Conclusion: there is not

sufficient evidence that meal

plan and class standing are

related at = .05

Chap 10-108

Extend the 2 test to the case with more than

two independent populations:

H 0: p 1 = p 2 = = p c

H1: Not all of the pj are equal (j = 1, 2, , c)

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-109

The Chi-square test statistic is:

2

(

f

f

)

2 o e

fe

all cells

where:

fo = observed frequency in a particular cell of the 2 x c table

fe = expected frequency in a particular cell if H0 is true

2 for the 2 x c case has (2-1)(c-1) = c - 1 degrees of freedom

(Assumed: each cell in the contingency table has expected

frequency of at least 1)

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-110

The overall

proportion is:

X1 X 2 Xc X

p

n1 n2 nc

n

are calculated as in the 2 x 2 case, and the

decision rule is the same:

Decision Rule:

If 2 > 2U, reject H0,

otherwise, do not

reject H0

chi-squared distribution

with c 1 degrees of

freedom

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-111

Using PHStat

Options

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-112

Input

Output

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-113

For independent samples:

Independent sample Z test with variances known:

Tools | data analysis | z-test: two sample for means

Tools | data analysis | t-test: paired two sample for means

For variances

F test for two variances:

Tools | data analysis | F-test: two sample for variances

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-114

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-115

Input

Output

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-116

(continued)

Input

Output

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-117

Chapter Summary

Addressed hypothesis testing methodology

Performed Z Test for the mean ( known)

Discussed critical value and pvalue approaches to

hypothesis testing

Performed one-tail and two-tail tests

Performed t test for the mean ( unknown)

Performed Z test for the proportion

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-118

Chapter Summary

Performed Z test for the differences in two means

Performed pooled variance t test for the differences in two means

Formed confidence intervals for the differences between two means

Performed paired sample Z and t tests for the mean difference

Formed confidence intervals for the paired difference

Formed confidence intervals for the difference between two population

proportions

Performed Z-test for two population proportions

variances

Used the F table to find F critical values

Walpole,Probability and Statistics for Engineers & Scientists, 8th e., Pearson Edu.

Chap 10-119

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