Business Statistics

Lecture 7

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Hyper geometric Probability

Distribution
The Probability function

Where N = no. of elements in population

n = no. of trials

r = no. of successes in the population

x = no. of successes in the trial

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Mean & Variance

The mean

The variance

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Example 47
Suppose

N=15 and r = 4. Compute

the hyper geometric probability of
x=3 and n=10?
Solution:

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Example 49
Blackjack or twenty-one as it is frequently called, is a popular
gambling game played in Las Vegas casinos. A player is
dealt two cards, Face Cards (jacks, queens and kings) and
tens have a point value of 10. Aces have a point value of 1 or
11. A 52 card deck contains 16 cards with a point value of 10
(jacks, queens, kings and tens) and four aces.
a. What is the probability that both cards dealt are aces or
10-point cards?
b. What is the probability that both cards are aces?
c. What is the probability that both of the cards have a point
value of 10?
d. A blackjack is a 10-point card and an ace for a value of 21.
Use your answers to parts (a), (b), and (c) to determine
the probability that a player is dealt blackjack.
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Answer to Example 49
a. We have N=52, r=20, n=2 and x=2.
So we get, P(x=2)=0.143288
b. We have N=52, r=4, n=2 and x=2.
So we get, P(x=2)=0.004525
c. We have N=52, r=16, n=2 and x=2.
So we get, P(x=2)=0.090498

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Solution
d. P(Both cards dealt are either aces or 10 point
cards) = P(Both cards are aces OR one card is
ace and the other is a 10-point card OR both
cards are 10-point cards)= P(Both cards are
aces)+P(one card is ace and the other is a 10point card) +P(both cards are 10-point cards)
Therefore, 0.143288=0.004525+P(Blackjack)
+0.090498
So, P(Blackjack)=0.143288-0.0045250.090498=0.048265
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Alternate solution
d. P(Blackjack)= P((first card is an ace
AND second card is a 10 point card)
OR(first card is a 10-point card AND
second card is an ace))
=
=0.076923*0.313725+0.307692*0.07
8431
=0.024133+0.024133
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Continuous Probability
Distribution
The

uniform probability density

function

= 0 elsewhere
Hence c = 1/(b-a)

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The mean & variances

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10

Example 1
The

random variable x is known to be

uniformly distributed between 1.0
and 1.5.
a. Show the graph of the probability
density function.
b. Compute P(x=1.25)
c. Compute
d. Compute
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Solution
a.
1/(1.51.0)

0.5

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1.0

1.5

12

Solution
b. P(x=1.25)= 0
c.
d.

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Example 3
Delta Airlines quotes a flight time of 2 hours, 5
minutes for its flights from Cincinnati to Tampa.
Suppose we believe that actual flight times are
uniformly distributed between 2 hours and 2 hours,
20 minutes.
a. Show the graph of the probability density function
for flight time.
b. What is the probability that flight will be no more
than 5 minutes late?
c. What is the probability that flight will be more than
10 minutes late?
d. What is expected flight time?
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The Normal Distribution

The probability density function

Standard Normal Density Function

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15

The Standard Normal

Distribution
The Normal Curve:
P(x)
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0

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Example 9
b. To find f(45<x<55)
1.
=NORMDIST(55,50,5,TRUE)NORMDIST(45,50,5,TRUE)
Alternatively,
2. Convert to z-score:
=2*0.3413= 0.6826
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Example 11
a. P(-1<=z<=0)=0.3413
b. P(-1.5<=z<=0)= P(0<=
z<=1.5)=0.4332
c. P(-2< z <0)=0.4772
d. P(-3< z <0)=0.4986

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Example 15
a. The Area to the left of z is 0.2119
find k.
Obviously k is negative.
That is to find 0.50-P(k<z<0)
That is to find k such that
P(k<z<0)=0.50-0.2119=0.2881
So, k=-0.80
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Example 15
b. The area between z and z is 0.9030
Hence
Therefore
That is
Or
Alternatively,
Hence,
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Example 15
c.
The area between z and z is 0.2052.
Hence the value of k 0.26.
d. The area to the left of z is 0.9948.
Hence k is in positive region.
OR
Hence k=2.56
e. The area to the right of z is 0.6915.
Hence k is in negative region.
Hence
Therefore -k=-0.50
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