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Environmental Scanning:
what it is and how to do it

Environmental Scanning:
what it is and how to do it

Maree Conway
Thinking Futures

.using futures approaches to

integrate strategic thinking into
strategy development and planning

 What ES is and why do it

ES and strategy
Getting started with ES
Back to work

 Whats your definition of environmental

scanning?

 ES is the art of systematically exploring

and interpreting the external environment,
to better understand the nature of trends
and deep drivers of change
and their likely future impact on your
organisation.

 Environmental Scanning (ES) is

the foundation for high quality
strategic thinking

 Environmental Scanning (ES) is

the foundation for high quality
strategic thinking
that informs the development of
futures ready strategy for an
organisation.

 Futures ready strategy is

flexible strategy that readies an
organisation to respond to the
challenges of the future.

Quick Survey

How many of you have formal scanning

systems operational in your organisations?

Why a Scanning System?

To strengthen the quality of the thinking that
goes into your strategy development
To let you understand whats coming and
whats changing and what it means for you
To give you enough time to prepare and be
proactive
To give you a competitive edge
To move you beyond busy - out of crisis
management mode

 Current strategy processes tend to

focus on the plan as the major
outcome, rather than a shared
understanding of your organisations
preferred future to inform action today.

Current until
2016

Reviewed each
year in first half
of year

Reviewed and
updated in
August/September;
finalised following
QIRs in November

Making VU 2016:
A Statement of
Purpose
Strategic vision
and objectives

University
Priorities
2008-2010
Outcomes &
Strategies to
implement

Unit Strategic Plans

2008-2010
Faculties, Schools
& Service areas
Implementation of University
Priority strategies

Internal & External Planning

Inputs
Ongoing environmental
scanning
Educational & societal trends
Government policy drivers
Legislation
University cross-sectoral
strategies
Other University Plans (eg
OHS, Disability, Staff Equity etc)

University Budget Process

Iterative process to align
budgets and plans
Budget sign-off at end
September
Quarterly Budget Reviews

Department
Plans

Improvement action
identified/changes to
plans identified

Held in
November
each year

SPDP:
individual
Staff Plans

Quality Improvement Reviews

(QIRs)
Approval of operational plans
Review of current years
performance

QIR Inputs
Organisational Unit QIR
Portfolios
Faculty Review Outcomes
Annual Course Reporting
Course Review
Subject Evaluation Outcomes
AQTF outcomes
AUQA Follow up

Think tomorrow
is going to be
more of today

Cant cope
with the
unexpected

Usually dont explore the

long term future

Prefer quantitative
over qualitative
information

Dont
challenge
assumptions

Downplay or dismiss staff beliefs,

hopes and fears about the future

 While the need for

planning has never
been greater, the
relevance of most of
todays planning
systems and tools is
increasingly marginal
(Fuller, 2003).

 It may well be that the

typical strategic
planning exercise now
conducted on a
regular and formal
basis and infused with
quantitative data
misses the essence of
the concept of strategy
and what is involved in
thinking strategically
(Sidorowicz, 2000).

 A major assumption of
the strategic planning
literature is that all of
these terms [strategy,
planning] necessarily
go together. [That is]
Strategy formation is a
planning process,
designed or supported
by planners, to plan in
order to produce plans
(Mintzberg, 1994).

 Current strategy processes live in the

pragmatic futures realm.
Working within the existing paradigm,
making it better, but not challenging it.
We call it strategic planning.

 Beyond strategic planning to strategy

development and implementation.
Moving into the progressive futures
realm, where we challenge the current
paradigm and re-interpret how we do
business to meet the challenges of the
future.

Moving from pragmatic to progressive approaches

requires a strong focus on building a high quality
strategic thinking capacity in your organisation.

We can't solve
problems by
using the same
kind of thinking
we used when
we created
them.

...because what works today

will probably not work for those
who follow you in the future...

 If you dont spend the time to improve the

quality of the thinking that goes into your
strategic decisions, then you will get
superficial, limited and ultimately useless
strategy.

So how do we
get started with
environmental
scanning?

BIG
DEEP
LONG

BIG

Take a big picture, systems perspectiveour

micro-decisions coalesce to create global
futures

DEEP

Our
assumptions
encase us in
the past.

We all have
blind spots
that cause
us to miss
important
information.

LONG

UNCERTAINT
Y
High

Usual Planning Timeframe

(3-5 years)

Trend

The linear future is the one we

believe to be true, usually
based on untested
assumptions
Linear Future

Low
Today

TIM
E

Future

UNCERTAINT
Y
High

Usual Planning Timeframe

(3-5 years)
Possible Futures

Trend
Linear Future
Low
Today

TIM
E

Future

UNCERTAINT
Y
High

Usual Planning Timeframe

(3-5 years)
Possible Futures

Trend
Linear Future
Low
Today

TIM
E

Future

The Scanning Process

The External Environment

Driving
Forces

Social
Environment
Industry
Environment
Supplier
s
Organisati
on
Customers
Clients

Members of
Wider
Society

Competito
rs

Factors / Trends
Issues / Forces
Social
Technological
Economic
Ecological
Political

Driving
Forces

Adapted from K. van der

Heijden

Industr
y
Learning

Sustainability

Educational
Gaming

Students
Suppliers
Organisati
on
Stakeholders

Online

Engagement
Vocational
Imperative

Funding

Globalisation
Technology

Global

Demographics &
generational change

Industr
y

Learning

Educational
Gaming

Lifestyle

Online
Environment

Organisati
on
Sustainability

Engagement
Values

Vocational
Imperative

Funding

Economy
Politics

Wil
dca
rd

Globalisation
Technology

Global

Demographics &
generational change

Wil
dca
rd

Wil
dca
Industr
Educational rd
y
Gaming

Learning

Lifestyle

Online
Environment

Organisati
Organisati
on
on
Sustainability

Engagement
Values

Vocational
Imperative
Economy

Funding

Wil
dca
rd
Politics

Things
Happening

Trend
(grouping of
events)

Driver
(moves trends in certain
directions, broad in scope and
long term in nature)

When you start scanning,

you will find lots of things
happening

Things
Happening

Trend
(grouping of
events)

Driver
(moves trends in certain
directions, broad in scope and
long term in nature)

Things
Happening

Trend
(grouping of
events)

Driver
(moves trends in certain
directions, broad in scope and
long term in nature)

Gradually,
you will be
able to group
similar hits
into broader
categories
trends.

But it might still

feel like this a
bit of a maze to
try and work
your way
through

What we are
really
interested in
exploring is
what is driving
these trends.

Things
Happening

Trend
(grouping of
events)

Driver
(moves trends in certain
directions, broad in scope and
long term in nature)

And this is
where the
connections
between the
trends will
surface and it
will start to
make sense.

Who Scans?

Scanning is not a solitary activity

Where to Look?

Global,
multiple
dispersed
cases, trends
and
megatrends
Late Majority
Number of
cases; degree
of public
awareness

Laggards

Mainstream
Trends

Late Adopters

Emerging Issues

Few cases,
local focus

Early adopters

Innovators
Today

Time

Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between

18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz,

and Everett Rogers

Global,
multiple
dispersed
cases, trends
and
megatrends
Number of
cases; degree
of public
awareness

Government
Institutions
Newspapers,
magazines, websites,
journals, blogs

Late Majority
Laggards

Scientists, artists,
radicals, mystics

Mainstream
Trends

Late Adopters

Emerging Issues

Few cases,
local focus

Early adopters

Innovators
Today

Time

Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between

18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz,

and Everett Rogers

Most scanning takes place

here

Global,
multiple
dispersed
cases, trends
and
megatrends
Number of
cases; degree
of public
awareness

Government
Institutions
Newspapers,
magazines, websites,
journals, blogs

Late Majority
Laggards

Scientists, artists,
radicals, mystics

Mainstream
Trends

Late Adopters

Emerging Issues

Few cases,
local focus

Early adopters

Innovators
Today

Time

Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between

18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz,

and Everett Rogers

But we need to look on the

fringe as well

Global,
multiple
dispersed
cases, trends
and
megatrends
Number of
cases; degree
of public
awareness

Government
Institutions
Newspapers,
magazines, websites,
journals,blogs

Late Majority
Laggards

Scientists, artists,
radicals, mystics

Mainstream
Trends

Late Adopters

Emerging Issues

Few cases,
local focus

Early adopters

Innovators
Today

Time

Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between

18-36 years

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz,

and Everett Rogers

Where to look
Newspapers, twitter, websites, blogs,
wikis, podcasts, videos, news sites,
newsletter, magazines, books, book
reviews, presentations, reports, surveys,
interviews, seminars, chat rooms, trend
observers, advertisers, philosophers
sociologists, management gurus,
consultants, researchers, experts,
universities.
Shaping Tomorrow

 If youre looking for new ideas that dont yet

exist, dont talk to normal people because
theyre just consuming what is available
today find the weirdos and see what they
are doing, what theyre making on their
own, and say gee is there something I
can mainstream from this?
Tom Kelly
Founder, Ideo

Trends

Whatever takes you away

from conventional thinking
Emerging Issues

The weird and

unimaginable

Some Scanning Sites

Shaping Tomorrow
Trendwatching
Brain Reserve
Now and Next
The Tomorrow Project
Strategic Business Insights
Arlington Institute

Looking for
What is happening today with your issue?
What are other people saying about its
evolution over time? How credible are
they?

 Dont dismiss the outliers

Looking for
New, first
Idea
Change
Surprise
Opportunity
Threat
Diversity of perspectives

Looking for
Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging
issue that is objectively new even to
experts, confirms or is confirmed by
additional scan hits, and that has been
identified in time for social dialogue,
impact assessment, and policy formation.
Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures 2004

As you scan
What are the major driving forces?
What big surprises are on the horizon?
What are possible discontinuities
(wildcards)?
What are the sources of inspiration and
hope?
Richard Slaughter, Foresight International

As you scan

If you think thats rubbish, stop.

First, ask why do I think its rubbish?
Second, take another look.
Third, ask what would enable you to
accept it as possible? Scan to see if that is
happening.

Classifying Hits

Social

Technological
Environmental
Economic

STEEP or add in Values

to make it VERY STEEP (VSTEEP)*
*Marcus Barber, Looking Up, Feeling Good

Political

When is a hit useful?

 Does the hit help you understand your

issue?
Does the hit identify a new way of seeing
the issue?
Does the hit help you to explore trends
and their potential impacts?
Shaping
Tomorrow

 Does the hit aim to identify and assess

possible future threats and opportunities,
including radical alternatives?
Does the hit challenge existing
assumptions underpinning current polices
and practice?

Shaping
Tomorrow

 Ultimately, you need to trust your intuition

your expertise, knowledge and insight is
the best gauge of usefulness.
But, remember your blind spots!

Recording and Sharing Hits

What to Record

Title
Summary
Source and date published
Initial assessment of implications
Tag/VSTEEP category

 For example (taken from SCAN, a publication by

Strategic Business Insights)
2009-01-03 Streaming Video and Security (Information
Week Daily 26 November 2001), describes the shift of
Packet Video (a developer of video streaming
technology) from consumer to security applications. The
companys technology could provide live feeds from the
cockpits of hijacked planes.

http://www.shapingtomorrow.com

Reporting Your Findings

 A snapshot report of the external

environment.
A background paper for the strategic
planning cycle.
Regular trend reports on single trends.
More detailed quarterly reports on
implications of trends and drivers.
Quick snippets about what you are finding.
Rating the hits staff involvement.
In all cases, add in trigger questions to
prompt discussion/conversation.

 What impact might it have on your

industry today and in the future?
What might be the implications for
your organisation?
How might you respond?

 How, and in what ways, could this

information be relevant to my
organisation?

Reporting Template Examples

Back to Work

 Never underestimate your

influence.
Make it part of your
deliverables.
Look for friendlies.
Start local.

Have good
organisational
diagnostics: can
smell the cheese,
but will jump ship.
Get it, and can
use the system
very rare.

Dont
bother
they are
waiting for
you to fail!
Andy Hines, An Audit for Organizational Futurists: 10
Questions Every Organizational Futurist Should be Able to
Answer, 2003

They will
follow you
blindly just
like
lemmings!

Long term
Uncertain
Divergent
Incomplete
Beyond linear
Disruption

Challenges: Info Overload

Challenges:
Stretching Your Thinking

Challenges: Finding the Time

Individual
Scanning

Organisational
Scanning

Unconscious

Conscious

Implicit

Explicit

Solitary

Collective

 The aim of scanning work is to

provide robust information that
strengthens your understanding of
your organisations long term
context
to enable you to make wise
strategic decisions today.

We do scanning to avoid having this

perspective on the future

Enjoy your
scanning!

 Download Building Strategic Futures

Guides:
Getting Started with Futures
Environmental Scanning

http://thinkingfutures.net/resources/buildingstrategic-futures-guides/

Contact Details
Maree Conway
http://www.thinkingfutures.net
maree.conway@thinkingfutures.net
Tel: + 61 3 9016 9506
Mobile: + 61 425 770 181
Skype: mkconway1
Shaping Tomorrow
http://www.shapingtomorrow.com
Foresight Network
http://shapingtomorrowmain.ning.com

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