Sie sind auf Seite 1von 24

Global Education Market

Presentation To

International Forum On Investment


In Higher Education
Washington DC, 22 January 2004
Ron Perkinson
International Finance Corporation
Health & Education Department
www.ifc.org / www.ifc.org/edinvest

The Global Market


$2.2 trillion+ total
one third of market in USA
approx 15% only in the developing world
Teachers 5% of global labor force
Primary & Secondary Education
substantially public funded
Tertiary & Adult Education
changing landscape - free provision
diminished
regulatory governments more liberalized
private
sector
participation
growing (est 17%)
Sources:
Merrill
Lynch 2000; OECD
2000; World
Bank; IFC:

Students Studying Abroad


Over 1.6 million international tertiary students
abroad in OECD countries (est $30 billion market)
Over 580,000 in USA 2001/02 or around 35% of
OECD total (6.4% inc from Yr 2000)
UK had 14% of OECD total in 2001 students from
China increased by 67% from previous year 31%
increase from India
Other significant OECD share Germany ( 12% )
Australia ( 10% ) France ( 8% ) and NZ ( 5% )
ERASMUS program over 120,000 students a year

International Students Big Business


Australia
160,000+ foreign students in Yr 2001 growing to
560,000
by Yr 2025 double again in distance
programs
50%+ from
Singapore and Hong Kong are distance
% of Total Exports
11% and 4% respectively of Australia and NZs
in Yr 2000
3.5% and 3.2% respectively of US and UKs
China
44,700 foreign students in Yr 2000 of which 70% from
Asia
12% from
Report
commissioned
by 11%
IDP Education
Australia;
China
Education Yearbook, 2002
Europe
from
the
USA

Enrollment in Private Higher


Education (as a % of total)
84

Korea

**

76
76
75

Philippines
Japan
India

71
71
69

Dominican Republic
Brazil
El Salvador

64

Colombia

60
58
56

Indonesia
Chile
Mexico

38

Portugal

34
32

Peru
United States

10

20

30

** = Latest Internal ADB est YR 2001

40

50

Sources: IBRD/IFC; UNESCO 2000; OECD 2001; Levy Research on Private Higher Education April 2002;

60

70

80

90

Medical Schools growing % private


Recent growth in medical schools
greater proportion private
Globally 1300 in 1995
today nearly 2000
260 medical colleges in India
approx 30% are private
Private medical schools also growing in Malaysia,
Thailand, Middle East, LAC and Former Soviet Union
Sources: Chronicle July 2003; IFC

World Population Growth


Year

Population

Time Per
Billion

Yr 1

250 m

1800

1b

1800 yrs

1930

2b

130 yrs

1960

3b

30 yrs

1975

4b

15 yrs

1988

5b

13 yrs

2001

6b

13 yrs

Source: 6 Billion Human Beings: - Muse de l'Homme Musum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris France

Balancing Education
Sector Needs . . . .

. . . . With Fiscal
Realities

Economic decline available resources for education shrink


Governments reconciling and balancing education fiscal
realities and demographic trends
Supplementary costs shifting to parents and students
Tuition fees increasing globally

Trends in Public & Private Financing


Education Global Estimates - All Countries
1996 to 2000
100

% of Financing Education

87%
80

83%

Public investment

60

40

20

Private investment
17% *

13% *
0
1996

1998

Source:: OECD 2000; UNESCO 1999; IFC staff estimates 2002:


Private Investment

2000
* = est. Trends in

Trends in Private and Public


Investment In Developing Countries
19702000
16

14.65%

% of GDP

12

Private investment
8

Public investment

7.05%

0
1970

1974

1978

Source:: IFC 2000 Trends in Private


Investment

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

1999

2000

Global Giants Lack of Supply


in the worlds most populous countries

China:
10 to 11% gross enrollment
Yr 2000 7.2 m students enrolled (excluding distance)
admitted 2.2 m new students
in Yr 2002
26 m students
currently in high school

15 m students to enroll over next 4 years


India:
6% gross enrollment
10,900 HEIs (includes 237 Deemed
Universities)
over 8 m students enrolled
some programs - 5000
Sources: Unesco 2000; India Planning Commission Report 2002; China Dept of Statistics 2002
applicants per place

Funding Comparatives
. . . the most populous nations

India China LAC

UK USA

Total Population approx

1000

1260

520

60

280

Public Expenditure
on Education ($B)

16

23

94

72

480

% Global Budget

0.7%

1.0%

4.2%

3.2%

22%

Per 10 m Population

$0.16 b

$0.2 b

$1.8 b $12 b

$17 b

Sources: UNESCO 1999 & 2000; World Bank 2001; US Department of Education 2001; Department of Education & Skills UK, 2002

Student Financing
Over 60 countries have student loans mostly public schemes
Variable performance
Loan schemes important can improve access and opportunity
Some barriers
private banking sector experience limited
cost of credit usually high
mobility of students after graduating
underwriting risk and cross border
issues difficult
Access to proven systems & experience valuable

Higher Education the perfect storm

. . . the six converging


forces ofofknowledge
change
The increasing importance

The further impact of globalization


The impact of increasing competition
The continued impact of internationalization
The continuing Information & Communications Technologies
revolution
Decline in public financing sourcing alternative financing

Source: World Bank Constructing Knowledge Economies 2002; The Changing Enterprise ACE 2002; IFC

Accreditation & Quality Management


Accreditation
80+ countries with accreditation systems
Sets minimum standards
Level playing field important commercial stability
Quality
Increased attention to QMS
Growing awareness of co-op regional initiatives

. . . . GATS . . .
144 countries trade in higher education services
Raise Barriers or Limit Entry?
entry of foreign providers in to
local markets - or
limit how
foreign providers operate in domestic markets
Issues of IP and equal treatment of national and
foreign providers on education subsidies

Changing Business Models


Changing modus operandi Public goes Private new forms of
competition
Shift from venue-driven to market-driven delivery systems
Market demand for flexible delivery options (evenings;
weekends; distance learning; use of new learning technologies)
E-learning - investment confidence and sector growing
From isolated university models to linked HEI courses
QA and credit transfer systems
broader options and career pathways
Separation of institutional management and academic power of
faculty different control over business administration

Lifelong Learning
Changing Student Profiles
Adults with tertiary qualifications increased from 22% to
over 40% today in OECD countries
Over 40% of undergraduates in US & 30% of Canadas
undergraduate students are over 25 yrs
Yr 2000 over 20% of first year university students were over
27 yrs in Australia, NZ, Denmark, Norway & Sweden
Lifelong learning attracting new learners more diversified
older and part time students
Sources: OECD 2000/2001; The Changing Enterprise ACE 2002;

Faculty the ageing workforce


By Yr 2010 as student demographics increase
growing competition looming for Scholars
increasing global pressure on staffing
Canada, 33% of faculty over 55 years 50% are 40 to 54 yrs
USA, 30% are over 55 years 27% are 40 to 54 yrs
Impact on developing countries potential brain drain
higher salary incentives elsewhere
loss also
to private sector
Source: The Brave New World of Higher Education; Madeleine Green, Peter Eckel ACE; & Andris Barblan EUA; 2002

Distance Education
Asia has 3.5 m students (2000) China Central Radio and TV
University has 1.5 million enrolls over 100,000 each year
30% of all tertiary courses in Russia are distance
LAC has over 1 million tertiary distance education students
Technikon South Africa has another 60,000 students
The E.A.D.T.U. 18 members 14 countries 900,000
students
Canada 500,000 students many on-line

British Open University 154,000 students produces 9% of


all undergraduates at 5% of national university budget
Source: The Changing Enterprise ACE 2002; World Bank & IFC;

On-Line Education steady growth


Many On-Line players
some operations are in good health and growing
(Bilgi University and RMIT)
Yr 2002, 19% of corporate training in US was
line up from around 7% three years earlier
$150 billion industry by 2025
Sources: IDC; IFC2002

on-

The Parallel Training Universe


New players in higher education offering education and
training in more advanced technologies.
Global I.T. companies / I.T. training providers (NIIT;
SSI/Aptech;) operate outside certified higher ed
credentials and accreditation but some affiliations
In Yr 2000, global I.T. companies certified 1.6 million
students worldwide with 2.4 million certificates in
Information Technologies.
Cisco provides certificated training for 400,000 students
in 150 countries

Future Outlook
Financing of education will tighten demographics outweigh
fiscal realities growth in non-public financing
New business models Public going Private trend will grow
Knowledge societies and lifelong learning important for
economic development new systems for education and trg
Globalization and internationalization changing the future
landscape of higher education, national and cross-border
ICTs and the Internet optimizing use of new technologies
models advancing quality-based mass education delivery

There is nothing permanent . . .


except change
Heraclitus