A Brief on Climate Downscaling:

Motivation, Approaches,
Applications, Discussions
David Yates and David Gochis
National Center for Atmospheric Research
31 May 2011

Outline
Climate downscaling Motivation
Overview of RALs Climate Four Dimensional
Data Assimilation System
Overview of the NCAR Nested Regional Climate
Model
Examples of downscaled climate information

Science Questions:
Questions:
How will precipitation change over key river basin?
Seasonality
Phase
Intensity

What is the influence of the precipitation changes on terrestrial

hydrology?
SWE (peak, seasonal accumulation and ablation)
Soil moisture and ET
Runoff

Climate downscaling methods

Empirical or statistical techniques
Identify links between large-scale climate elements
(predictors) and local climate (the predictand), and
apply to output from global or regional models.

Terrain elevation and slope.

Land cover (forest, water body, crop land).
Historical meteorological measurements.
Expert knowledge.

Dynamical techniques
Explicitly predicts the physical processes of the
climate system.
4

Downscaling Paradigms:

Emphasizes range of probabilities over

process
More complete in terms of distribution
of outcomes
Applies suspect assumptions in crossscale interpretations
Cant account for many non-linearites
in climate system processes
Neglects, rigorous process evaluation

Downscaling Paradigms:

Emphasizes process over

representation
Identifies processes behind the
answer
Accounts for changes in dynamical
and microphysical structures (e.g.
non-linear impacts)
Neglects the plausible range of likely
outcomes
6

Downscaling Paradigms:

Emphasizes range of probabilities over

process
More complete in terms of distribution
of outcomes
Applies suspect assumptions in crossscale interpretations
Cant account for many non-linearites
in climate system processes
Neglects, rigorous process evaluation

Emphasizes process over

representation
Identifies processes behind the
answer
Accounts for changes in dynamical
and microphysical structures (e.g.
non-linear impacts)
Neglects the plausible range of likely
outcomes
7

Statistical downscaling
A statistical regression between local climate
variables and large scale predictors (e.g.,
large scale atmospheric flow local
temperature).
Example: Model output statistics (MOS).
large-scale analysis
Predictors
(Global/Regional Model)

`
Predictands
(values at local scale)
8

local value
8

Dynamical Downscaling
Empirical or statistical techniques
Identify links between large-scale climate elements
(predictors) and local climate (the predictand), and
apply to output from global or regional models.

Terrain elevation and slope.

Land cover (forest, water body, crop land).
Historical meteorological measurements.
Expert knowledge.

Dynamical techniques
Explicitly predicts the physical processes of the
climate system.
9

Process-Based Climate Downscaling

Global scale data mapped to local region
while adding small scale variability

Source: Clifford Mass, Univ. Washington

10

Dynamical downscaling
Limited area model
(LAM) embedded
within a global
model.

M
LA d
gri

Global model
constrains LAM.
LAM defines small
scale features.
Information only
passed from global
model to LAM.

Global analysis

11

Statistical versus dynamical

downscaling
Statistical downscaling
Cheap.
Makes simplifying
assumptions about how
local weather works.
Statistical relationships
might not be valid if climate
undergoes change.

Source: Clifford Mass, Univ. of Washington

Dynamical downscaling
Computationally
Expensive.
Physical systems explicitly
predicted.
May produce local trends
not depicted by global
models.
12

Future Climate (FC) Downscaling

Static- PGW

Transient

FC = HistClim + Climate

FC = CC +Climate

13

Static Pseudo-Global Warming (SPGW)

1.
2.

Derive Difference field : U, V, T, geopot. hgt., Psfc and Qv between

current and future climate periods from a CGCM
Add difference to current period atmospheric conditions (North American
Regional Reanalysis, 3-hrly) (2.0 oC temperature increase over

Colorado, and an increase of mixing ratio on the order of 15 - 20%.)

Monthly mean of
past condition
CCSM 1995-2005
Monthly mean of
future condition
CCSM 2045-2055

Caveat:

No change in transient spectra (i.e. same climate variability in the future

except for changes in storms within the domain)
14

Transient Pseudo-Global Warming (TPGW)

1.
2.

3.

Derive Bias field : U, V, T, geopot. hgt., Psfc and Qv between current and
future climate periods from a CGCM
Add difference to current period atmospheric conditions (North American
Regional Reanalysis, 3-hrly) (2.0 oC temperature increase over Colorado,

and an increase of mixing ratio on the order of 15 - 20%.)

CCSM = CCSM + CCSM
Monthly mean of
Obs Condition
1970-2000
Monthly mean of
CCSM 1970-2000

Caveat:

Change in transient spectra (i.e. same climate variability in the future except
15
for changes in storms within the domain)

16

Imposed Warming Experiment:

500mb Wind and Geopotential Height

Current

Future-Current

Future

All positive changes

17

Imposed Warming Experiment:

Current

Future

Future-Current

18

Imposed Warming Experiment:

500mb RH

Current
Current

Future
Future

Future-Current

19

Assessing Climate Phase: Mean Annual Cycle

Precipitation

Temperature

20

Motivation

Large-scale climate
models use horizontal
grid increments of 60300 km.
Consequence or impact
models require grid
increments of 10 km or
smaller.

Source: David Viner, Climatic Res. Unit, Univ. of East Anglia, UK.

21

Motivation
Seasonal, yearly, inter-annual to decadal climate
variability strongly impacts society.
Water resources.
Flood risk.
Spread of infectious disease.
Energy demand and production.
Building design and construction.
Regional transport and dispersion.
Locating weather-sensitive installations (airports).
Locating new observing systems.
22

Science Questions:
Questions:
How will precipitation change over river basin?
Seasonality
Phase
Intensity

What is the influence of precipitation changes on terrestrial

hydrology?
Snow Water (peak, seasonal accumulation and ablation)
Soil moisture and ET
Runoff

Pprocess/physics-based approach:
Interested in identifying the processes
behind the answer
Ability to consistently account for
changes in dynamical and microphysical
structures (e.g. non-linear impacts)

23

NRCM: Impacts of climate change

on spread of disease
How will vulnerability to dengue evolve with climate and
land use changes?

24

NRCM: Impacts of climate change

on spread of disease
Map

CCSM3
(~150 km resolution)

NRCM
(20 km resolution)

1800 UTC 2-m temperature difference for March 2057-2059 and

March 2007-2009.

(Simulations performed by Cody Phillips, NSAP)

25

NRCM: Impacts of climate change

on wind energy production
GDF SUEZ interested in impacts of climate change on a
proposed wind farm near the Belgian coast.
NRCM DOMAINS

NRCM

CCSM

D_01

D_02
D_03

Temperature (deg C)

Comparison of CCSM and NRCM wind vectors, near-surface

temperature (colors), and sea level pressure (blue lines) for
1200 UTC 02 January 2020.

26