Managing Variability

Process Control and Process

Capability
Sangeeta Shah Bharadwaj

Managing Process Variation

Which sub-process do you want to
Control?
What do you want to control?
Measures and metrics?

Will it Impact the output/outcome?

Control Charts
Detect if something is wrong with
process
Establish what the process is
inherently capable of achieving
Help diagnose the cause of abnormal
behavior of process
Monitor and control process
When not to take any corrective
action.

Analyze Process Variability

Collect the data

Related to some KPI
Collect samples over time period
Calculate X bar and standard
deviation
Draw X Bar control charts

X-bar and R Chart

X-bar chart monitors the process mean by
using the means of small samples taken
frequently
R chart monitors the process variation by
using the sample ranges as the measure
of variability
Range = Maximum value Minimum value

Example of Notation
Hour

Service Time
(minutes)
T1
T2
T3

Sample
Mean, X

Sample
Range, R

10:00 AM

12

21/3 = 7

12 4 = 8

12 Noon

10

24/3 = 8

10 6 = 4

3:00 PM

15/3 = 5

92=7

= 20/3 = 6.7R

=19/3 =6.3

X bar Chart
X bar chart is used to monitor the
variation of the subgroup averages
that are calculated from individual
sampled data

Control Charts
X bar Control Charts

Underlying Distributions
Sampling
distributio
n of
X

Distributio
n of X

Control Limits for X-bar

Chart
Since we are plotting
sample means on the
X-bar chart, the control limits are based on
the distribution of the sample means.

The control limits are therefore

UCL X 3
n

LCL X 3
n

Control Limits for X-bar

Chart
X
Distribution of

LCL

X 3
n

UCL

X 3
n

Control Limits for X-bar Chart and

Relation with Range

LCL X 3
n

UCL X 3
n

LCL X A2 R
UCL X A2 R

Control Limits for X-bar

Chart

3
A2 R
n
is a factor that depends on the n, the sample size,

nd will be given in a table.

Example of X-bar Chart

A company that makes soft drinks

wants to monitor the sugar content
of its drinks.
The sugar content (X) is normally
distributed, but the means and
variances are unknown.
The target sugar level for one of its
drinks is 15 grams.
The lower spec limit is 10 grams.
The upper spec limit is 20 grams.

Example of X-bar Chart

The company wants to know how much
sugar on average is being put into this soft
drink and how much variability there is in the
sugar content in each bottle.
The company also wants to know if the
mean sugar content is on target.
Lastly, the company wants to know the
percentage of drinks that are too sweet and
the percentage that are not sweet enough.
(Next section)

Example of X-bar Chart

To obtain this information, the company

decides to sample 3 bottles of the soft drink
at 3 different time each day:
10 A.M,
1:00 P.M. and
4:00 P.M.

The company will use this data to construct

an X-bar and R chart. (In practice, you need
25-30 samples to construct the control limits.)
For the past two days, the following data
were collected:

Example of X-bar Chart

Day

Hour

X1

X2

X3

10 am

17

13

1 pm

15

12

24

4 pm

12

21

15

10 am

13

12

17

1 pm

18

21

15

4 pm

10

18

17

What is n?
What is the
k?
What is the
next step?

Example of X-bar Chart

Day Hour
1
10 am

X1
17

X2
13

X3
X
6 36/3 =12

R
11

1 pm

15

12

24 51/3 =17

12

4 pm

12

21

15 48/3 =16

10 am

13

12

17 42/3 =14

1 pm

18

21

15 54/3 =18

4 pm

10

18

17 45/3 =15
8
X = 92/6 R = 51/6
= 15.33 = 8.5

X-bar Chart Control Limits

LCL X A2 R
UCL X A2 R

Table A: X-bar Chart Factor, A2

A2

1.88

1.02

0.73

0.58

X-bar Chart Control Limits

X
R

15.33
8.5

From Table A in notes

n 3
A2 1.02

X-bar Chart Control Limits

LCL X A2 R
15.33 1.02(8.5)
6.66
UCL X A2 R
15.33 1.02(8.5)
24.0

X-bar Chart for Sugar Content

30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
10

10

Hour

Hour

2
Day

Interpreting Control Charts

By points that fall above the UCL and
below LCL
By Points that are not randomly
distributed

Interpreting Control Charts

Run violations: seven or more consecutive
points are on one side of the center line
Trend Violation: Upward or downward
movement of five or more consecutive
points
Points not randomly distributed: e.g. non
random patterns such as cycles
Hugging
Oscillatory
Avoidance of 1 sigma area

Statistical Control
Controlled Variation is attributed to
chance and is characterized by
stable and consistent pattern of
normal variation over time

Uncontrolled variation changes over

time and can be attributed to an
assignable cause

Statistical Control
State of randomness
Variation is due to chance alone and
nothing external is disturbing the stability
of the process

Recurring cycles
may reflect wear and fatigue

Lack of variability
Control limits very relaxed

Trends can be addressed

Find reasons

Interpretation of X-bar Chart

The X-bar chart is in control

because ????
This means that the only source of
variation among the sample mean is
due to random causes.
The process mean is therefore stable
and predictable and, consequently,
we can estimate it.

Interpretation of X-bar Chart

Our best estimate of the mean is the

center line on the control chart,
which is the overall mean (X-double
bar) of 15.33 grams.
If the process remains in control, the
company can predict that all bottles
of this soft drink produced in the
future will have a sugar content of,
on average, 15.33 grams.

Interpretation of X-bar Chart

This prediction, however, indicates that there

is a problem with the location of the mean.
The process mean is off target by 0.33 grams
(15.33 -15.00).
The process mean, although stable and
predictable, is at the wrong level and should
be corrected to the target.

Interpretation of X-bar Chart

Since the process mean is in control, there

are no special causes of variation that may
be responsible for the mean being off target.
Since the operators are responsible for
correcting problems due to special causes
and management is responsible for
correcting problems due to random causes of
variation, management action is required to
fix this problem.

Range Chart
Range chart looks at the range in a
subgroup

R Chart

Monitors the process variability (the

variability of X)
Tells us when the process variability has
changed or is about to change.
R chart must be in control before we can use
the X-bar chart.

R Chart
Rules for detecting changes in variance:
If at least one sample range falls above the
upper control limit, or there is an upward trend
within the control limits, process variability has
increased.
If at least one sample range falls on or below
the lower control limit, or there is a downward
trend within the control limits, process
variability has decreased.

R Chart Control Limits

LCL D3 R
UCL D4 R

Table B: Factors for R Chart

n

D3

D4

2
3
4
5

0
0
0
0

3.27
2.57
2.28
2.11

R Chart Control Limits

n3
D3 0
D4 2.57

LCL 0(8.5)
0
UCL 2.57(8.5)
21.85

R Chart for Weight

25
20
15
10
5
0

R
LCL
UCL
R-bar
10

10

Hour

Hour

2
Day

Interpretation of R Chart

Since all of the sample ranges fall within the

control limits, the R chart is in control.
The standard deviation is stable and
predictable and can be
This does not necessarily mean that the
amount of variation in the process is
acceptable.

Interpretation of R Chart
Continuous improvement means the
company should continuously reduce the
variance.
Since the process variation is in control,
management action is required to reduce
the variation.

Expected Pattern in a Stable Process

X-bar Chart
UCL

LCL

Time

Expected pattern is a normal distribution

Is a Stable Process a Good

Process?
In control indicates that the process mean is
stable and hence predictable.
A stable process, however, is not necessary a
good (defect free) process.
The process mean, although stable, may be far off
target, resulting in the production of defective
product.
In this case, we have, as Deming puts it, A stable
process for the production of defective product.

Control Charts
Is the process unstable? Problem Solving
tools
-by pointing out where improvement is needed
Take corrective action.

Is the process stable? Decision making tool

What is the process capability?
Whether to improve it further and or leave it as
it is

Responsibility for Corrective

Action
Special Causes
(Process out of
control)

Random Variation
(Process in Control)

Operators
(workers)

Management

Benefits of Control Charts

Control charts prevent unnecessary

adjustments.
If process is in control, do not adjust it.
Adjustments will increase the variance.
Management action is required to improve
process.
Adjustments should be made only when
special causes occur.

Benefits of Control Charts

Control charts assign responsibility for
corrective action.
Control charts are the only statistical valid
way to estimate the mean and variance of
a process or product.
Control charts make it possible to predict
future performance of a process and
thereby take early corrective action.

Analyze the reason for variation

Root Cause Analysis

??
4Ms: Methods, Manpower, Materials and
Machinery

4Ps: Policies, Procedures, People , Plant

Environment, workflow.

Data Entry Clerk

Materials

Inadequate
training

Fatigue
Attitude

Incorrect forms
or materials
Running out of
materials
Outdated
materials

Not familiar
with work
place
Temperature

Power
outage

Waiting line
not managed
well

downti
me

Slow
response
Disruptions due to time
meetings or other (Network)
chores

Environment

Data entry Variation

Not User
friendly

Too many steps

in the procedure

Machine

Fishbone Diagram for Analyzing Customer

Dissatisfaction

Reasons for variability

Inadequate training
Machine downtime
Slow response time
Incorrect forms
Etc

Pareto Chart
Allows you to focus on significant problems
80-20 rule (80 percent problems come
from 20% causes)
Need a measurement of ranking?
Cost, Frequency, percentage

Determine time frame

Collect data
Plot in descending order

Pareto Diagram of Causes of

Customer Dissatisfaction
60

50

50

Inadequat
e Training

40

30

Machine
Downtime

30

Slow
response
time

20

10

Incorrect
forms

10
7

Others
3

0
Causes