How to Talk to a Climate

Change Skeptic

BY CASEY MCCULLOUGH
BELLARMINE COLLEGE PREPARATORY
March 9, 2010
 Skepticism on the Rise

Do you think that global warming is happening?

2010 2008*∗
Yes 57 71
No 20 10
Don’t Know 23 19

http://environment.yale.edu/uploads/AmericansGlobalWarmingBeliefs2010.pdf
The Argument for Science—
A Personal History
 The Ground Strategy

I. “Be Grounded”
A. The Basic Science
B. Debunking Some Common Myths and
Misconceptions
C. The IPCC and Current Research
II. “Find Common Ground”
III. “Stand Your Ground”
Climate Science is Complex
. . . But the Role of Greenhouse Gases is Not

Joseph Fourier John Tyndall

1824 1859
The Energy Balance of Earth

30 percent reflected
ving solar energy : 341 W/ m2
lected back to space : 102 W/ m2
diated as Heat: 239 W/ m2

255K or
-18° C or
-1 ° F
Arriving Energy =
Actual temperature: 15° C

What could account for

a temperature swing
of 33° C ?
 Unassailable Fact #1:
carbon dioxide* is a greenhouse gas

* Carbon dioxide is the most important of the GHGs, representing

approximately 60 percent of anthropogenic warming.
 Unassailable Fact #2:
Combustion generates CO2

Hydrocarbons + O2  H2O + CO2

Does this make sense?
 Molar Mass:
Gasoline
C = 12.0 g/mol
Carbon
Gasoline O = 16.0 g/ mol

1 gallon gasoline C + O2  CO2

6.0 pounds

12 + 2(16)  44
5.3 pounds of carbon

5.3 lbs C (44/12) = 19.4 lbs CO2

 Unassailable fact #3:
Carbon emissions are increasing

Oil
 Unassailable fact #3:
Carbon emissions are increasing
 Unassailable fact #3:
Carbon emissions are increasing
 To Summarize

Greenhouse gases absorb and radiate heat back to

Earth’s surface.
Carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, is produced from
the combustion of fossil fuels.
Fossil fuel combustion continues to increase every
year.
Carbon dioxide is increasing in the atmosphere.

Given these unassailable facts, one would expect to

see a rise in global temperature.
Average surface temperature anomaly 2000-
2009

Source: NASA
Extent of the Evidence
Extent of the Evidence
 The IPCC—most recent conclusions

 Warming of the climate

system is unequivocal,
as is now evident from
observations of
increases in global
average air and ocean
temperatures,
widespread melting of
snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level
 The Yale Study

Which comes closest to your own beliefs

2010 2008
 Most scientists think global warming

is happening 34 47
 Most scientists think global warming

is not happening 5 3
 There is a lot of disagreement among
scientists about whether or not global
warming is happening 40 33
 Don't know enough to say 22 18
 :
The role of the media
The Unusual Winter
Weather vs. Temperature—A thought
experiment
Our Most Prominent Cynic
 Skeptics vs. Cynics

Skeptic: a person who questions the validity or

authenticity of something purporting to be factual.
(dictionary.com)

Cynic: a person who believes that only selfishness

motivates human actions and who disbelieves in or
minimizes selfless acts or disinterested points of
view.
(dictionary.com)
 The burden of overwhelming evidence

Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming

“The risks to society and
ecosystems from increases in
CO2 emissions could prove to
be significant, so it is prudent
to develop and implement
strategies that address the
risks, keeping in mind the
central importance of energy
to the economies of the
world.”

Exxon, in a public statement

 Why It Matters

In South Dakota, a resolution calling for the

“balanced teaching of global warming in public
schools” passed the Legislature this week.
“Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant,” the resolution
said, “but rather a highly beneficial ingredient for all
plant life.”

At least 15 state legislatures attempting to prevent

limits on greenhouse gas pollution.
Why It Matters, Part II
Stand Your Ground