Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
PGP 13-15
properly
Draw conclusions about large populations, using
information collected from samples
Make reliable forecasts about a business activity
Improve business processes
Types of Statistics
Statistics
The branch of mathematics that transforms data
Descriptive Statistics
Inferential Statistics
Descriptive Statistics
Collect data
ex. Survey
Present data
ex. Tables and graphs
Characterize data
X
ex. Sample mean = i
n
Inferential Statistics
Estimation
ex. Estimate the
population mean weight
using the sample average
weight
Hypothesis testing
ex. Test the claim that
the population average
weight is 65 Kg
Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions
concerning a population based on sample results.
Sample
Sources of Data
Primary Sources: The data collector is the one
using the data for analysis
Data from a political survey
Data collected from an experiment
Observed data
Types of Variables
Categorical (qualitative) variables have values
Types of Data
Data
Categorical
Numerical
Examples:
Marital Status
Political Party
Eye Color
(Defined categories)
Discrete
Continuous
Examples:
Number of Children
Defects per hour
(Counted items)
Examples:
Weight
Voltage
(Measured characteristics)
Probability
Empirical classic probability
trials
Objective -- everyone correctly using the method assigns an
identical probability
Subjective probability
different individuals may (correctly) assign different numeric
Random Variable
A random variable x takes on a defined set
of values with different probabilities.
outcomes
of possible values.
numbers from 1 to 6.
Probability functions
A probability function maps the possible values of
p(x)
1/6
P(x) 1
all x
p(x)
p(x=1)=1
/6
p(x=2)=1
/6
p(x=3)=1
/6
p(x=4)=1
/6
p(x=5)=1
/6
p(x=6)=1
/6
1.0
2
3
4
5
6
P(x)
P(xA)
P(x1)=1/6
P(x2)=2/6
P(x3)=3/6
P(x4)=4/6
P(x5)=5/6
P(x6)=6/6
Practice Problem:
The number of patients seen in the ER in any given hour is
10
.4
11
.2
12
.2
13
.1
14
.1
p(x=14)= .1
Review Question 1
If you toss a die, whats the probability that you
roll a 3 or less?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
1/6
1/3
1/2
5/6
1.0
Review Question 1
If you toss a die, whats the probability that you
roll a 3 or less?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
1/6
1/3
1/2
5/6
1.0
Review Question 2
Two dice are rolled and the sum of the face
values is six? What is the probability that at
least one of the dice came up a 3?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
1/5
2/3
1/2
5/6
1.0
Review Question 2
Two dice are rolled and the sum of the face
values is six. What is the probability that at least
one of the dice came up a 3?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
1/5
2/3
1/2
5/6
1.0
Continuous case
The probability function that accompanies a
continuous random variable is a continuous
mathematical function that integrates to 1.
e
0
0 1 1
p(x)=e-x
1
x
1
2
P(1 x 2) e
1
2
1
E( X )
x p(x )
i
all x
Continuous case:
E( X )
xi p(xi )dx
all x
A Situation
Acme Fruit and Vegetable Wholesalers buys tomatoes,
then sells them to retailers. Acme currently pays `
2000 per container. Tomatoes sold on the same day
bring ` 5000 per container. Extremely perishable in
nature, if any tomato container not sold on the same
day are worthless and required to be disposed off
(consider at no cost). The distribution managers
problem is to determine the optimum number he
should order each day. On days when he stocks more
than he sells, his profit is reduced by the cost of the
unsold containers. On the other hand, when retailers
request more containers than he has in stock, he loses
sales and makes smaller profit than he could have.
Q1= 10
Q2= 11
Q3 =12
Q4= 13
D1= 10
300
280
260
240
D2= 11
300
330
310
290
D3= 12
300
330
360
340
D4= 13
300
330
360
390
Q, P = 30 D 20 (Q-D)
100 days.
Daily Sales
Number of days
sold
Probability of each
number being sold
D1= 10
15
0.15
D2= 11
20
0.20
D3= 12
40
0.40
D4= 13
25
0.25
where:
N = the number of states of nature
P(sj ) = the probability of state of nature sj
ij = the payoff corresponding to decision alternative di and
state of nature sj
Conditional
profit (1)
Probability of
selling (2)
Expected profit
=(1) x (2)
D1= 10
300
0.15
45
D2= 11
300
0.20
60
D3= 12
300
0.40
120
D4= 13
300
0.25
75
Total EV
300
Conditional
profit (1)
Probability of
selling (2)
Expected profit
=(1) x (2)
D1= 10
280
0.15
42
D2= 11
330
0.20
66
D3= 12
330
0.40
132
D4= 13
330
0.25
82
Total EV
322.50
Conditional
profit (1)
Probability of
selling (2)
Expected profit
=(1) x (2)
D1= 10
260
0.15
39
D2= 11
310
0.20
62
D3= 12
360
0.40
144
D4= 13
360
0.25
90
Total EV
335
Strategy adopted
EVENTS
(Demand)
Conditional
profit (1)
Probability of
selling (2)
Expected profit
=(1) x (2)
D1= 10
240
0.15
36
D2= 11
290
0.20
58
D3= 12
340
0.40
136
D4= 13
390
0.25
97
Total EV
327.50
exhaustive categories
ex. head or tail in each toss of a coin; defective or not
the other
Binomial distribution
Take the example of 5 coin tosses. Whats the
probability that you flip exactly 3 heads in 5 coin
tosses?
X=#
successes
out of n
trials
p (1 p )
n X
1-p = probability
of failure
p=
probability of
success
20
10
10
10
(.5) (.5) .176
20
20
0
20
(.5) (.5)
19
(.5) (.5)
20!
2
18
(.5) (.5)
1.8 x10 4
20!
(.5) 20 9.5 x10 7
20!0!
20!
(.5) 20 190 x9.5 x10 7 1.8 x10 4
18!2!
E(x) np
2 np (1 - p )
np (1 - p )
Applications
A manufacturing plant labels items as either
defective or acceptable
A firm bidding for contracts will either get a
contract or not
A marketing research firm receives survey responses
of yes I will buy or no I will not
New job applicants either accept the offer or reject it
Your team either wins or loses the football game at
the company picnic
P( X )
N A
n X
N
Where
N = population size
A = number of successes in the population
N A = number of failures in the population
n = sample size
X = number of successes in the sample
n X = number of failures in the sample
N A
4 6
2 1
n X
(6)(6)
0.3
N
120
10
3
n
nA
N
Where
nA(N - A) N - n
2
N
N -1
N-n
N - 1 is called the Finite Population Correction Factor
person
ex. The number of computer crashes in a day
An example
Suppose that, on average, 5 cars enter a parking lot
0.104
X!
7!
So, there is a 10.4% chance 7 cars will enter the