Numerical methods for

atmospheric dynamics
Maria Francesca Carfora
IAC CNR

Plan of the talk

Operational models for NWP: an overview
The Primitive Equations
Numerical methods:
a semi Lagrangian approach
on traditional grids
on geodesic grids
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What is NWP?
The technique used to obtain an objective
forecast of the future weather (up to possibly two
weeks) by solving a set of governing equations
that describe the evolution of variables that
define the present state of the atmosphere.
Feasible only using computers.

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NWP system
NWP entails not just the design and development
of atmospheric models, but includes all the
different components of an NWP system
It is an integrated, end-to-end forecast process
system.
As an example
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NWP model (ECMWF)

Model details:
Spectral resolution T511
Reduced gaussian grid N256
(resolution 40 km)
60 hybrid vertical levels
from the ground level to a
height of 65 km
Time step 15
2-time level semiLagrangian dynamics
Physical parameterization

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Model geometry (ECMWF)

Horizontal resolution
T511 ~ 40 km

Vertical resolution
60 levels

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Modules in a NWP model

Dynamics
Physics parameterization
Data assimilation
Predictability - validation

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Physics
Sub-scale processes to be parameterized

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Physics
Grid-scale

precipitation (large scale condensation)

Deep and shallow convection
Microphysics (increasingly becoming important)
Evaporation
PBL processes, including turbulence
Radiation
Cloud-radiation interaction
Diffusion
Gravity wave drag
Chemistry (e.g., ozone, aeorosols)
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Data assimilation
Data sources for the
ECMWF
Meteorological
Operational System
(EMOS).
Numbers refer to
amount of received data
in 24 hours
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Data assimilation
Observations feed prediction models. But
Observations are (or may be):
-unevenly distributed (in space and/or in time)
-incomplete
-of poor quality

Need for an assimilation procedure

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Data assimilation
There are errors in the model and in the observations, so we can never be sure
which one to trust. However we can look for a strategy that minimizes on
average the difference between the analysis and the truth.

Data assimilation is an analysis technique in

which the observed information is accumulated
into the model state by taking advantage of
consistency constraints with laws of time
evolution and physical properties.

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Data assimilation
Variational data assimilation:
Running the NWP model we obtain an estimate for the observed quantities
(analysis)
A cost function (J0) measures the distance between the analysis and the
observations

Minimizing J0 we determine
a corrected forecast which is
closer to the observations.
This forecast gives the
values for the observed
variables to be introduced in
the model

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Predictability forecast error

Sources of error in NWP:

Errors in the initial conditions
Errors in the model
Intrinsic predictability limitations

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Sources of Errors - continued

Initial Condition Errors
1 Observational Data Coverage
a Spatial Density
b Temporal Frequency
2 Errors in the Data
a Instrument Errors
b Representativeness Errors
3 Errors in Quality Control
4 Errors in Objective Analysis
5 Errors in Data Assimilation
6 Missing Variables

Model Errors
1 Equations of Motion Incomplete
2 Errors in Numerical
Approximations
a Horizontal Resolution
b Vertical Resolution
c Time Integration Procedure
3 Boundary Conditions
a Horizontal
b Vertical
4 Terrain
5 Physical Processes

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Predictability forecast error

Predictability limitations:
The deterministic approach to numerical weather prediction
provides one single forecast for the "true" time evolution of the
system.
The ensemble approach to numerical weather prediction tries to
estimate the probability density function of forecast states.
Ideally, the ensemble probability density function estimate
includes the true state of the system as a possible solution.

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Predictability forecast error

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Dynamics
It was recognized early in the history of NWP
that primitive equations were best suited for
NWP
Governing equations can be derived from the
conservation principles and approximations.
It is important to understand the resulting wave
solutions and their relationship to the chosen
approximations.
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Key Conservation Principles

Mass conservation
Momentum conservation
Energy conservation
(water, gaseous and aerosol
components conservation)
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Primitive equations
Conservation laws in spherical geometry:
(,,r)
Spherical coordinates

d
d
dr
u r cos ; v r
; z
dt
dt
dt
Velocity components
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Prognostic variables
Horizontal and vertical wind components
Pressure, height or potential temperature
Surface pressure
Specific humidity/mixing ratio
Mixing ratios of cloud water, cloud ice, rain,
snow
Mixing ratio of chemical species
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Primitive equations
du
1
p
tan

f v uv
F
dt
a cos
a
dv
1 p
2 tan

f u u
F
dt
a
a
p
g
z
d
V
dt
p RT
d
Cp
Q
dt T
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Longitudinal velocity
(along the parallels)
Latitudinal velocity
(along the meridians)
Hydrostatic approssim.
Mass conservation
State equation
Energy conservation
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Numerics
1) Space discretization:
A. Horizontal discretization
B. Vertical discretization

2) Time discretization

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Numerics
A) Horizontal discretization

Finite differences
Finite elements
Spectral methods:
variables are represented by truncated spherical armonics

where is longitude, is sin(latitude) and Pnm are Legendre polynomials

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Numerics
In the case of finite differences:
uniform grids (in longitude and latitude)
reduced (or stretched) grids
geodesic grids
Spatial staggering (velocity and pressure)

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Horizontal discretization:
A uniform
longitude-latitude
grid
(i.e. variable space resolution)

Adjustments:
reduced grids
stretched grids
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Horizontal discretization:

A geodesic grid
(quasi uniform space resolution)
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Horizontal discretization:
Variables collocation
A

(unstaggered)
grid
length

C
u

u,v,h

u,v
D
v

h
v

E
u,v

h
u

h
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Numerics
B) Vertical discretization:
Finite differences, with several vertical coordinates:
Height on the mean sea level (z )
Pressure ( p )
Normalized pressure ( =p / p* )
Hybrid coordinates ( k= Ak p + Bk p* )
Potential temperature ( )

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Vertical discretization:

Height coordinate

Pressure coordinate

Normalized pressure coordinate

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Numerics
Time discretization schemes

Two-level (e.g., Forward or backward)

Three-level (e.g., Leapfrog)
Multistage (e.g., Forward-backward)
Higher-order schemes (e.g., Runge-Kutta)
Time splitting (split explicit)
Semi-implicit
Semi-Lagrangian

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Numerics
Time discretization schemes
for semi-Lagrangian
with two interpolations
with one interpolation
without interpolations

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d
u v
t
x
y dt
Lagrangian viewpoint:
the total derivative is seen as
the time evolution along a
trajectory, which is called the
characteristic line

A regular grid at time tn

evolvs in an irregular one
at time tn+1

semi-Lagrangian
technique:
moving backward along
the characteristic line
one can determine its
starting point

A regular grid at time

tn+1 originates from an
irregular one at time tn

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semi-Lagrangian technique:
moving backward along the
characteristic line one can
determine its starting point
The trajectory from A to B is
approximated by the straight
line A'B

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Toy model: shallow water eqs.

dV
dt f k V h

d
h (( s )) 0

dt

V
f

= (u,v) wind field

= Coriolis parameter
= geopotential
= orography

= horizontal

1


,
,
x y R cos

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Main features of the method

Vectorial discretization for the momentum equation;
semi-Lagrangian procedure with sub-stepping for an accurate
reconstruction of the characteristic lines;
semi-implicit treatment of some terms to obtain unconditional
stability;
Finite volumes for the continuity equation to obtain exact mass
conservation;
Full or splitted scheme
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Semi-Lagrangian advection in spherical geometry

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Momentum equation
Semi-Lagrangian
Semi-implicit

Lagrangian
terms

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Evaluation of Lagrangian terms

Characteristic system

Eulero with substepping

(Casulli, 1990)

Runge Kutta 2 (Heun)

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Continuity equation

Finite volumes
Semi-implicit

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Geopotential
equation

(9 diagonals,
unsymmetric)

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Splitting
First step:

(to be solved separately)

Second step:

(to be coupled with the continuity equation)

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Geopotential
equation

(5 diagonals, symmetric, positive definite)

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Linear stability analysis full scheme

B w k 1 RC w k

ft
1

1
ft

2 ItK sin( x / 2) 2 ItK sin( y / 2)

j

f (1 ) t
1

1
f (1 ) t

2 ItK j sin( x / 2)

2 ItK sin( y / 2)

2 ItK sin( x / 2) 2 ItK sin( y / 2)

j

Th.
where

2 ItK j sin( x / 2)

2 ItK sin( y / 2)

B RC 2 1 1 2
2
1 A

1/ 2

A f t 4 K 2j sin 2 x / 2 K 2 sin 2 y / 2
2

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Linear stability analysis splitted scheme

B w k 1 C w k

1
0

0
1

2 ItK sin( x / 2) 2 ItK sin( y / 2)

j

c1
c3

c2
c4

2 ItK sin( x / 2) 2 ItK sin( y / 2)

j

Th.

2 ItK j sin( x / 2)

2 ItK sin( y / 2)

2 ItK j sin( x / 2)

2 ItK sin( y / 2)
1

2
2
2
1
1

t
1
1

1 B C 2 max 1,
2 H
2 1 t
2
2 2
2

1 f 1 t
x1 y

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Linear stability results

Unconditional stability of the full scheme for
0.5
Unconditional stability of the splitted scheme for
=1
1 0.5

pressure and divergence terms

Coriolis terms
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The method
on a
geodesic
grid
Advection
Shallow water

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Logical structure:
10 diamonds
(0,nk) x (1, nk+1)
k

nk

nodes

cells

Lmax

Parameters:

12

20

704
0

k = refinement level

42

80

n k = 2k

352
0

162

320

176
0

642

1280

880

16

2562

5120

440

32

10242

20480

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2004
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40962

nodes = 10*nk2+2
cells = 20*nk

220
80960 48
110

Geodesic grid:
PRO

CON

Quasi - uniform
resolution
Natural solution to
the pole problem
Only normal
velocities

More complicated
logical structure
Triangular cells
Only normal
velocities

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Geodesic grid:
Interpolation:
P wA A wB B wC C
Baricentric coordinates :

wA area (PBC )

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Tests:

Solid-body rotation
Deformation flow

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Current perspectives:
Higher order interpolation procedures
Variable resolution
Extension to the Shallow water on a
geodesic grid

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References

Amato, U. and Carfora, M.F., (2000), Semi-Lagrangian

Treatment of Advection on the Sphere with Accurate Spatial and
Temporal Approximations, Mathematical and Computer
Modelling, 32, 981-995.
Carfora, M.F., (2000), An Unconditionally Stable SemiLagrangian Method for the Spherical Atmospherical Shallow
Water Equations, Int. J. for Numer. Meth. in Fluids 34, 6, 527558.
Carfora, M.F., (2001), Effectiveness of the operator splitting for
solving the atmospherical shallow water equations, Int. J. Numer.
Meth. Heat and Fluid Flow, 11, 3, 213-226 .
Abrugia, G. and Carfora, M.F., (2003), Semi-Lagrangian
Advection on a Spherical Geodesic Grid, Tech. Rep. IAC-NA
n.274/03 (submitted).
Carfora, M.F. and Noviello, G., (2004), Shallow water equations
on a spherical geodesic grid, IAC Tech. Rep. n. 291/04
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Thank you!
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