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Review of

Accounting
Chapter 4

Learning Objectives:

Use of the balance sheet,

the income statement, and


the statement of cash flows
by managers.
Calculation of depreciation.
How depreciation affects
cash flow.
How taxes affect a firms
value.
Calculation of marginal and

The Firms Financial


Statements
Annual report includes:

Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Statement of Cash Flows
Accompanying Notes

Income Statement
ACME CORPORATION

The Firms Financial


Statements
Annual report
includes:
Balance Sheet

The Firms Financial Statements


Balance Sheet
Assets =

Current Assets:
Cash

Inventory
A/R

Fixed Assets:
Land

Liabilities +

Owners Equity

Current Liabilities:
A/P

Accruals
S-T Debt

Long Term Liabilities:


Bonds

Plant

Equipment
Less: Ac. Dep.

L-T Bank Debt


Mortgages
Preferred Stock

Owners Equity:
Common Stock
Capital in Excess

of Par
Retained Earnings

Balance Sheet

ACME CORPORATION

Balance Sheet
ACME CORPORATION
December 31

Balance Sheet
ACME CORPORATION
Assets = Liabilities + Owners Equity

The Firms Financial Statements


Income Statement:
Revenues - Expenses = Net Income

Sales
Investment Income
Gains
Interest Received
Dividends Received

COGS
Salaries
Depreciation Exp.
Taxes
Other Expenses
Interest Paid

The Firms Financial Statements


Income Statement:
Revenues - Expenses = Net Income

Dividends

Retained
Earnings

The Firms Financial


Statements
Annual report includes:
Statement of Cash Flow

The Firms Financial


Statements
Statement of Cash
Flows
Cash Inflow - Cash Outflow = Change in Cash
From Operations:

Cash Sales +
Payments to Suppliers Depreciation Exp. + Salaries Collection of A/R + Increase A/R Decrease inventory +
Decrease Payables Decrease Accruals -

The Firms Financial


Statements
Statement of Cash
Flows
Cash Inflow - Cash Outflow = Change in Cash

From Investing:

Sale of Fixed Assets + Purchase of fixed assets -

Purchase of other firms -

14

Statement of
Flows
Cash Cash
Inflow - Cash
Outflow = Change in Cash
From Financing:

Sale of stock +
Buy back stock Issue of LT debt +
Repay LT debt or notes payable +
Pay dividends Pay interest 15

Market vs. Book Value


Market Value & Book Value can be very
different.

Book Value is recorded initially


at cost.
Changes in book value
(depreciation) follow specified
accounting rules.
16

Market vs. Book Value

Factors that determine the


disparity between market and
book:
Time since acquisition
More time, more difference
Inflation: Higher inflation, more
difference
Tangible versus intangible assets
Intangible assets, more difference

Market vs. Book Value


Liabilities
As with assets, the market value of
liabilities may diverge from the
book value, but the relationship is
less complex.

The main factor that determines the


difference between market and book
values for liabilities of a healthy firm is:
the time until a liability must be paid off

At maturity, the market value will


equal the
book value.

Market vs. Book Value of


Equity
Total Market Value of Equity is the
market
price per share times the number
of shares outstanding.
Book Value of equity reflects the
changes in other asset and liability
accounts since it is the account that can
change to enforce the balance sheet
identity.
Stockholders Equity = Assets - Liabilities

DEPRECIATION
Accounting depreciation is the
allocation of an assets initial
cost over time.

Allowable depreciation
expense is determined by
established accounting rules.

CALCULATION OF
DEPRECIATION

Depreciable basis

Total amount to be depreciated over the


accounting life of the asset.
Equal to cost of the asset plus any setup and
delivery costs incurred.

Straight line depreciation

Basis divided by accounting life with equal


amounts of depreciation allocated to each
time period (except for half-year convention).

MACRS (Modified Accelerated Cost


Recovery System)
Specified percent charged each year.

Federal Income Taxation


Marginal and Average Tax
Rates
Marginal = Tax Rate on the next dollar of income.

Average = Taxes paid divided by taxable income.

Progressive Tax System

Average tax rate increases with the level of


taxable income.
Marginal tax rate is greater than the average tax
rate. (The current corp. tax rate schedule is not
strictly progressive.)

THE TAX SYSTEM EXPLAINED IN COFFEE


Suppose that every day, ten men go out for COFFEE AND
CONVERSATION
and the bill for all ten comes to $100...
If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like
this...

The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.


The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.

The ten men drank COFFEE every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until
one day, the owner threw them a curve ball. "Since you are all such good customers," he
said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily coffee bill by $20". Unlimited coffee for the
ten men would now cost just $80.
The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes. So the first four men
were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men? How
could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his fair share?
They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from
everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to
drink THEIR COFFEE.

THE TAX SYSTEM EXPLAINED IN COFFEE


So, the owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill
by a higher percentage the poorer he was, to follow the principle of the
tax system they had been using, and he proceeded to work out the
amounts he suggested that each should now pay.
At a bill of $80, in order to follow the principle of the tax system they had
been using, and he proceeded to work out the amounts he suggested that
each should now pay.

Now, the first four men along with the fifth would pay nothing.
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33% saving).
The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28% saving).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% saving).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% saving).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% saving).

THE TAX SYSTEM EXPLAINED IN COFFEE


Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to
drink for free. But, once outside the bar, the men began to compare their
savings. "I only got a dollar out of the $20 saving," declared the sixth
man. He pointed to the tenth man AND SAID, "but he got $10! "Yeah,
that's right," exclaimed the fifth man. "I only saved a dollar too. It's unfair
that he got ten times more benefit than me! "That's true!" shouted the
seventh man. "Why should he get $10 back, when I got only $2? The
wealthy get all the breaks! "Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in
unison, "we didn't get anything at all. This new tax system exploits the
poor! The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.
The next night the tenth man didn't show up for COFFEE AND
CONVERSATION so the nine sat down and had their COFFEE without
him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something
VERY important. They didn't have enough money between all of them for
even half of the bill!

THE TAX SYSTEM EXPLAINED IN


COFFEE
And that, my dear students is exactly how our tax
system works. The people who already pay the
highest taxes will naturally get the most benefit
from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack
them for being wealthy, and they just may not show
up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking coffee
overseas, where the atmosphere is somewhat
friendlier. For those who understand this, no
explanation is needed. For those who do not
understand, no explanation is possible because
you never will get it.

Income

% of Total Income Tax Paid

Top 1%

40%

Top 10%

71%

Top 50%

97%
From 2009 IRS Data

Accounts Receivable Tax


Building Permit Tax
CDL License Tax
Cigarette Tax
Corporate Income Tax
Dog License Tax
Federal Income Tax
Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA)
Fishing License Tax
Food License Tax
Fuel Permit Tax
Gasoline Tax

Hunting License Tax


Inheritance Tax
Inventory Tax
IRS Interest Charges (tax on top of tax)
IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)
Liquor Tax
Luxury Tax
Marriage License Tax
Medicare Tax
Property Tax
Real Estate Tax
Service charge taxes

Social Security Tax


Road Usage Tax (Truckers)
Sales Taxes
Recreational Vehicle Tax
School Tax
State Income Tax
State Unemployment Tax (SUTA)
Telephone Federal Excise Tax
Telephone Federal Universal Service Fee Tax
Telephone Federal, State and Local Surcharge Tax
Telephone Minimum Usage Surcharge Tax
Telephone Recurring and Non-recurring Charges Tax
Telephone State and Local Tax
Telephone Usage Charge Tax
Utility Tax
Vehicle License Registration Tax
Vehicle Sales Tax
Watercraft Registration Tax
Well Permit Tax
Workers Compensation Tax

Not one of these taxes existed 100


years ago...
and our nation was the most
prosperous in the world.
We had absolutely no national debt...
We had the largest middle class in the
world... And there was only one wageearner per family
What happened?
Can you spell

'politicians!'

Differential Tax Treatment


of Interest and Dividends
Interest paid on corporate debt is a tax
deductible expense.
Dividends paid to common and preferred
stockholders is not tax deductible.
Dividends received by a corporation
from another corporation have at
least a 70% exclusion from taxable
income.
32

Differential Tax Treatment


of Interest and Dividends
Corp B owns 100
shares of Common
Stock in Corp A

Dividend
Income
Corp A

Corp B

Corp A pays a
$2/share dividend
to shareholders.

$200

30% or $60 is Taxable

70% or $140 is Tax Free

Corp. B pays marginal tax rate of 25%


$60 x .25 = $15

Federal Taxes on dividend income


33

Who Pays all the Bills? The


Taxpayer thats Who (Just
Dont
Us)
Income
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 50%

% of Total Income Tax Paid


40%
71%
97%
From 2008 IRS Data

forget
Who
pays
the
bills.

Homework Questions and Problems


1. Explain the difference between debt and equity. Why must the two equal total
assets?
2. Ajax Inc. had profits of $200,000 for the year. Their retained earnings account grew
from $800,000 at the beginning of the year to $950,000 by year end. How much did
the firm pay out in dividends?
3. Calculate earnings per share for the following:
Net income
$500,000
Interest expense:
$ 50,000
Common Dividends paid
$100,000
Common shares outstanding
100,000
4. Working capital includes both current and non-current assets. Do you agree or
disagree with this statement? Explain.
5. Explain why common stockholders are paid after preferred stockholders.
6. Are retained earnings and cash the same thing?
36

Analysis of Financial
Statements
Chapter 5

37

Learning Objectives
How financial ratio analysis
helps managers assess the
firms health.
Compute profitability, liquidity,
debt, asset activity, and market
value ratios.
Compare financial information
over time and among
companies.
38

Ratio Analysis
Financial managers use ratios to
interpret the raw numbers on
financial statements.
Relative measures allow comparison
over time and to other firms.
Ratios are used by financial
managers, other business
managers, creditors, and investors.

39

Ratio Analysis
Five Categories of Ratios

Profitability ratios
Liquidity ratios
Debt ratios
Asset activity ratios
Market value ratios

40

Ratio Analysis
Profitability Ratios

Measure the overall effectiveness


of the firms management.

41

Ratio Analysis
Profitability Ratios
Gross Profit Margin =

Gross Profit
Sales

How effective is the firm at generating


revenue in excess of its cost of goods
sold?
42

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Cash
$175
Accounts Receivable 430
Inventories
625
Current Assets
$1,230
Plant & Equipment $2,500
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200)
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300
Total Assets
$2,530
Income Statement
Excalibur Corporation
Sales
$1,450
Cost of Goods Sold
875
Gross Profit
$575
Operating Expenses
45
Depreciation
200
Net Operating Income
$330
Interest Expense
60
Income Before Taxes
$270
Taxes (40%)
108
Net Income
$162
Common Dividends Paid
100
Addition to Retained Earnings $62

Gross
Profit
Margin

Accounts Payable
$115
S-T Notes Payable
115
Current Liabilities
$230
Bonds
$600
Owners Equity
Common Stock
$300
Capital in Excess of Par 600
Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Total Liabilities and
Owners Equity
$2,530

Gross Profit
Sales

Gross Profit Margin =

$575
$1,450

= 39.7%
43

Ratio Analysis
Profitability Ratios
Operating Profit Margin =

Operating Income
Sales

How effective is the firm in keeping costs


of production low?

44

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term Debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Income Statement
Total Liabilities and
Excalibur Corporation
Owners Equity
$2,530
Sales
$1,450
Cost of Goods Sold
875
Gross Profit
$575
Operating Expenses
45
Depreciation
200
Operating
Operating Income
$330
Operating Income
Profit
=
Interest Expense
60
Sales
Income Before Taxes
$270
Margin
Taxes (40%)
108
Net Income
$162
$330
Oper. Profit Margin =
= 22.8%
Common Dividends Paid
100
$1,450
Addition to Retained Earnings $62
45

Ratio Analysis
Profitability Ratios
Note: Net Income equals Earnings Available to CS
when there is no preferred stock.
Net Income
Net Profit Margin =
Sales

How much net profit is being generated


from each dollar of sales?
46

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term Debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Income Statement
Total Liabilities and
Excalibur Corporation
Owners Equity
$2,530
Sales
$1,450
Cost of Goods Sold
875
Gross Profit
$575
Operating Expenses
45
Depreciation
200
Net
Operating Income
$330
Net Income
Profit
=
Interest Expense
60
Sales
Margin
Income Before Taxes
$270
Taxes (40%)
108
$162
Net Income
$162
Net
Profit
Margin
=
= 11.2%
Common Dividends Paid
100
$1,450
Addition to Retained Earnings $62
47

Ratio Analysis
Profitability Ratios
Return on Assets =

Net Income
Total Assets

How effectively is the firm generating net


income from its assets ?

48

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories
625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Total Liabilities and
Income Statement
Owners Equity
$2,530
Excalibur Corporation
Sales
$1,450
Cost of Goods Sold
875
Gross Profit
$575
Operating Expenses
45
Net Income
Return on
Depreciation
200
=
Operating Income
$330
Total Assets
Assets
Interest Expense
60
Income Before Taxes
$270
Taxes (40)
108
$162 = 6.4%
Net Income%
$162
ROA = $2,530
Common Dividends Paid
100
49
Addition to Retained Earnings $62

Ratio Analysis
Profitability Ratios
Net Income
Return on Equity =
Common Equity
How well is the firm generating return to
its equity providers?

50

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories
625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term Debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Income Statement
Total Liabilities and
Excalibur Corporation
Owners Equity
$2,530
Sales
$1,450
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Depreciation
Operating Income
Interest Expense
Income Before Taxes
Taxes (40%)
Net Income
Common Dividends Paid
Addition to Retained Earnings

875
$575
45
200
$330
60
$270
108
$162
100
$62

Return on Equity =

ROE =

$162
$1,700

Net Income
Common Equity

= 9.53%
51

Ratio Analysis
Liquidity Ratios
Measure the ability of the firm to
meet its short-term financial obligations.

Current Assets
Current Ratio =
Current Liabilities
Are there sufficient current assets to pay off
current liabilities? What is the cushion of
safety?
52

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories
625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term Debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Total Liabilities and
Owners Equity
$2,530

Current Ratio =

Current Assets
Current Liabilities

Current Ratio = $1,230 = 5.35x


$230
53

Ratio Analysis
Liquidity Ratios
Measure the ability of the firm to meet
its short-term financial obligations.

Acid-Test Ratio =

Current Assets - Inventory


Current Liabilities

What happens to the firms ability to repay current


liabilities after what is usually the least liquid of the
current assets is subtracted?
54

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories
625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term Debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Total Liabilities and
Owners Equity
$2,530

Acid-Test Ratio =

Current Assets - Inventory


Current Liabilities

Acid-Test Ratio =

$1,230 -$625
= 2.63x
$230
55

Ratio Analysis
Debt Ratios
Measure the relative size of
the firms debt load and the
firms ability to pay off the
debt.

56

Ratio Analysis
Debt Ratios
Debt Ratio =

Total Debt
Total Assets

What proportion of the firms assets is


financed with debt?

57

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories
625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term Debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Income Statement
Total Liabilities and
Excalibur Corporation
Owners Equity
$2,530
Sales
$1,450
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Depreciation
Operating Income
Interest Expense
Income Before Taxes
Taxes (40%)
Net Income
Common Dividends Paid
Addition to Retained Earnings

875
$575
45
200
$330
60
$270
108
$162
100
$62

Debt Ratio =

Total Debt
Total Assets

Debt Ratio = $230 + $600 = 33%


$2,530
58

Ratio Analysis
Debt Ratios
Total Debt
Debt to
=
Common Equity
Equity Ratio
What is the proportion of debt relative to
equity financing for the firm?

59

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories
625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term Debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Income Statement
Total Liabilities and
Excalibur Corporation
Owners Equity
$2,530
Sales
$1,450
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Depreciation
Operating Income
Interest Expense
Income Before Taxes
Taxes (40%)
Net Income
Common Dividends Paid
Addition to Retained Earnings

875
$575
45
200
$330
60
$270
108
$162
100
$62

Debt to
Equity Ratio

Total Debt
Common Equity

D/E = $230 + $600 = 48.8%


$1,700
60

Ratio Analysis
Debt Ratios

Times Interest Earned Ratio =

Operating Income
Interest Expense

What is the firms ability to repay interest


payments from its operating income?
61

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories
625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term Debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Income Statement
Total Liabilities and
Excalibur Corporation
Sales
$1,450
Owners Equity
$2,530
Cost of Goods Sold
875
Gross Profit
$575
Operating Expenses
45
Depreciation
200
Times
Operating Income
Operating Income
$330
Interest
=
Interest Expense
60
Interest Expense
Earned
Ratio
Income Before Taxes
$270
Taxes (40%)
108
$330
Net Income
$162
TIE Ratio =
= 5.50x
Common Dividends Paid
100
$60
Addition to Retained Earnings $62
62

Ratio Analysis
Asset Activity Ratios

Help assess how effectively the


firm is using assets to generate
sales.

63

Ratio Analysis
Asset Activity Ratios

Average Collection Period =

Accounts Receivable
Avg. Daily Credit Sales

How long does it take for the firm on


average to collect its credit sales from
customers?
64

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories
625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Bonds
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Income Statement
Total Liabilities and
Excalibur Corporation
Owners Equity
$2,530
Sales
$1,450

Additional Info:
We assume all
sales are credit
sales.

Cost of Goods Sold


Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Depreciation
Operating Income
Interest Expense
Income Before Taxes
Taxes (40%)
Net Income
Common Dividends Paid
Addition to Retained Earnings

875
$575
45
200
$330
60
$270
108
$162
100
$62

Average
Accounts Receivable
Collection =
Avg. Daily Credit Sales
Period
ACP =

$430
$1,450/365

= 108.24 days
Days in a
year

65

Ratio Analysis
Asset Activity Ratios

Inventory Turnover Ratio =

Sales
Inventory

Is inventory efficiently translating into


sales for the firm?
66

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories
625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term Debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Income Statement
Total Liabilities and
Excalibur Corporation
Owners Equity
$2,530
Sales
$1,450
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Depreciation
Operating Income
Interest Expense
Income Before Taxes
Taxes (40%)
Net Income
Common Dividends Paid
Addition to Retained Earnings

875
$575
45
200
$330
60
$270
108
$162
100
$62

Inventory
Turnover =
Ratio
Inventory Turnover =

Sales
Inventory
$1450 = 2.3x
$625
67

Ratio Analysis
Asset Activity Ratios
Sales
Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio = Net Fixed Assets
How effective is the firm in using its fixed
assets to help generate sales?

68

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories
625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term Debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Income Statement
Total Liabilities and
Excalibur Corporation
Owners Equity
$2,530
Sales
$1,450
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Depreciation
Operating Income
Interest Expense
Income Before Taxes
Taxes (40%)
Net Income
Common Dividends Paid
Addition to Retained Earnings

875
$575
45
200
$330
60
$270
108
$162
100
$62

Fixed Asset
Turnover
Ratio

Sales
= Net Fixed Assets

Fixed Asset Turnover =

$1,450
= 1.12x
$1,300
69

Ratio Analysis
Asset Activity Ratios

Total Asset Turnover Ratio =

Sales
Total Assets

How effective is the firm in using its


overall assets to generate sales?

70

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories
625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term Debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Income Statement
Total Liabilities and
Excalibur Corporation
Owners Equity
$2,530
Sales
$1,450
Cost of Goods Sold
875
Gross Profit
$575
Operating Expenses
45
Total Asset
Depreciation
200
Sales
Turnover = Total Assets
Operating Income
$330
Interest Expense
60
Ratio
Income Before Taxes
$270
Taxes (40%)
108
$1,450
Total
Asset
Turnover
=
= 0.57x
Net Income
$162
$2,530
Common Dividends Paid
100
Addition to Retained Earnings $62
71

Ratio Analysis
Market Value Ratios
Price to Earnings Ratio =

Market Price per Share


Earnings per Share

How much are investors willing to pay per


dollar of earnings of the firm?
(Indicator of investors attitudes toward future
prospects of the firm and of the firms risk.)
72

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories
625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term Debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Income Statement
Total Liabilities and
Excalibur Corporation
Owners Equity
$2,530
Sales
$1,450

Additional Info:
100 shares
$20.00 per
share

Cost of Goods Sold


Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Depreciation
Operating Income
Interest Expense
Income Before Taxes
Taxes (40%)
Net Income
Common Dividends Paid
Addition to Retained Earnings

875
$575
45
200
$330
60
$270
108
$162
100
$62

P/E
= Market Price/Share
Ratio
EPS

P/E ratio =

$20.00
= 12.35x
$162/100
73

Ratio Analysis
Market Value Ratios
Market to Book Ratio =

Market Price per Share


Book Value per Share

How much are investors willing to pay


per dollar of book value?

74

Balance Sheet
Excalibur Corporation
Assets
Liabilities
Cash
$175 Accounts Payable
$115
Accounts Receivable 430 S-T Notes Payable
115
Inventories
625 Current Liabilities
$230
Current Assets
$1,230 Long-term Debt
$600
Plant & Equipment $2,500 Owners Equity
Less:Acc. Depr.
(1,200) Common Stock
$300
Net Fixed Assets
$1,300 Capital in Excess of Par 600
Total Assets
$2,530 Retained Earnings
800
Total Owners Equity $1,700
Income Statement
Total Liabilities and
Excalibur Corporation
Owners Equity
$2,530
Sales
$1,450
Cost of Goods Sold
875
Gross Profit
$575
Operating Expenses
45
Market
Depreciation
200
Price/Share
to
=
Operating Income
$330
Common Equity/ # shares
Interest Expense
60
Book
Income Before Taxes
$270
Taxes (40%)
108
$20.00
Net Income
$162
M/B
=
= 1.18x
Common Dividends Paid
100
$1,700/100
Addition to Retained Earnings $62

Additional Info:
100 shares
$20.00 per
share

75

EBITDA
EBITDA stands for Earnings Before
Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and
Amortization.
It is often of great interest to financial
analysts although FASB does not
require that this number be reported.
It measures the amount of cash thrown
off from the operations of the company.

76

Ratio

Industry Excalibur

Profitability
Gross Profit Margin
Operating Profit Margin
Net Profit Margin
Return on Assets
Return on Equity

38%
20%
12%
9.0%
13.4%

39.7%
22.8%
11.2%
6.4%
9.5%

Excalibur is good at keeping


operating costs down, but not as
good at total costs. ROA and ROE
are low mainly due to productivity
problems.
77

Summary of Excalibur Corporation Ratios


Ratio
Liquidity
Current Ratio
Acid-Test Ratio

Industry
5.00x
3.00x

Excalibur
5.35x
2.63x

Looking at the current ratio it appears


that Excalibur is more liquid than the
industry.... however when looking at
Acid Test (a better measure) they are
not as liquid indicating that inventory
levels are probably too high.
78

Ratio

Industry Excalibur

Debt
Debt Ratio
35%
Times Interest Earned 7.00x
Debt to Equity
49%

33%
5.50x
48%

While the debt ratio is close to the industry


average, Excalibur is not able to cover
interest payments as easily as the industry.
This indicates Excalibur may have too much
debt relative to what they can realistically
afford.

79

Ratio

Industry Excalibur

Asset Activity
Avg. Collection Period
Inventory Turnover
Fixed Asset Turnover
Total Asset Turnover

90 days
3.00x
1.00x
0.75x

108 days
2.32x
1.12x
.57x

Collection policies need examining, as Excalibur is


slower than average at collecting receivables.
Inventories are being sold more slowly than the
industry average, again indicating inventories that
are too high. Excalibur is very efficient at converting
Fixed Assets to Sales (fixed assets are productive).
However, overall assets are not productive
indicating Current Assets (e.g. inventories) are not
as productive as for the industry.
80

Ratio
Market Value
Price Earnings
Market to Book

Industry Excalibur
18.0
2.5

12.35
1.18

Excaliburs Investors are not willing to


pay as much per dollar of earnings or
per dollar of book value as they are for
shares in other firms in the industry.
This signals that they consider the firms
prospects to be worse than the average.
However, the firm is still selling for more
than its accounting book value.
81

Relationships Among Ratios:


The Du Pont System
Ratio Analysis generally involves an
examination of related ratios.
Comparison of these relationships
over time helps to identify the
companys strengths and
weaknesses.

82

Relationships Among Ratios:


The Du Pont System
The Du Pont Equation
Return
=
on
Assets

Net Inc.
Assets

Net
Profit x
Margin

= Net Inc.
Sales

Total
Asset
Turnover

Sales
Assets

83

Relationships Among Ratios:


The Du Pont System

The Modified Du Pont Equation


Return
=
on
Equity

Net Inc.
Equity

Net
Profit x
Margin

Net Inc.
Sales

Total
x
Asset
Turnover

Sales
x
Assets

Equity
Multiplier

Assets
Equity

84

Homework Questions & Problems:


Use the following information to answer the questions.

Elton Corporation
Income Statement
for the year ending 12/31/XX
(in thousands of dollars)

Net sales
$ 2,700
Operating Costs
(2,350)
Depreciation
( 150)
Interest Expense
( 70)

EBT
130
Income Tax (40%)
(
52)

Net Income
$
78

Dividends to Common Stock = $ 58

85

Homework Questions & Problems:


Elton Corporation
Balance Sheet
12/31/XX
(in thousands of dollars)

Cash

$ 150
Accounts Payable
$100
Accounts Receivable
250
Notes Payable
250
Inventory
600
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Assets
$1,000
Total Current Liabilities

Total Fixed Assets


1,500
Long Term Debt
1,100
Common Stock
800
Retained Earnings
200
Total Assets
$2,500
Total Liab. & Equity
$2,500

Number of shares outstanding = 10,000 shares


Price per Share = $100

50
$400

86

Homework Questions & Problems:


1. Calculate each of the following ratios. Be sure to give the complete equation as well as the
solution:
a. Current ratio
b. Quick ratio
c. Total Debt/Total Asset Ratio
d. Inventory Turnover Ratio
e. ROE
f. TIE
g. EPS
h. Net Profit Margin
i. Market to Book Ratio
j. Total Assets Turnover Ratio
2. Show the Modified DuPont Equation for the company.

87

Homework Questions & Problems:

3. Given these industry ratios:


Net Profit Margin
4.3%
Debt/Asset
40%
Total Asset Turnover
1.1
ROA
4.73%
Use the DuPont equation to compare the performance of Elton Corp to the industry
average. What can you say about their(a) profitability, (b) expense control, (c) asset
management, and (d) debt management.
4. A firm expects to have net income of $85,000. If preferred dividends paid are 42,000,
common stock dividends paid are $20,000, and shares of common stock outstanding
are 10,000, what is the EPS?

88

Homework Questions & Problems:

5. Fill in the missing data based on the information provided for years 2009 and 2010.
ABC CORPORATION
Balance Sheet Changes and Classification
Of Key Accounts between 2009 and 2010
Account
Long-term debt
Accounts receivable
Common stock
Cash
$640
Retained earnings
Accruals
Inventory
Accounts payable
Net fixed assets

2009
$960
$640
$200

2010 Change
$800
$500
$300

Source/Use

$500
$960
$800
$50
$200
$840
$600
$1,150
$1,800

$1,000
$2,000

89

Forecasting for
Financial Planning
Chapter 6

90

Learning Objectives:
The importance of forecasting to
business success.
The financial forecasting
process.
Preparation of pro forma
financial statements.
The importance of analyzing
forecasts.
91

Why is forecasting
important?
Mistakes are costly:
If you produce too much of a product,
or a product that no one wants to
buy, you still must pay for materials,
labor, and storage.
If you produce too little of a product,
you will lose sales and possibly
market share.
92

Forecasting Approaches
Financial managers concentrate on
three general approaches to financial
forecasting:
Experience
Probability
Correlation
93

Experience
Managers who have been in the
business for a long time have
developed a sense for the patterns
in sales, expenses, consumer
demand factors, etc.
Example: Editors who work for book
publishers regularly read submitted
manuscripts and make judgments
about whether their company should
buy the rights to publish the books.
94

Probability
Past history often tells us a lot
about what will happen in the
future.
Managers can use this
information to estimate the
future.
Example: In the past, a 7-11
manager has found that she will
lose 1% of candy inventory to
shoplifters. She can use this
information to estimate future

95

Correlation
Correlation is a measure of the relative
movement of two variables relative to
each other.
Example: If interest rates go up, a real
estate agent knows that home sales will
tend to fall (because the higher cost of
financing makes it harder for buyers to
qualify for mortgages).
Example: Sales of umbrellas are higher in
rainy seasons.
96

The Sales Forecasting


Process
Marketing
(sales estimate)
Top Management
(policy, strategy)

Finance
Department

Production
(capacity, schedules)
Accounting
(financial statements,
depreciation, taxes)

SALES
FORECAST
97

Forecast future sales


based on past sales
growth
Sales

Plot of Past Sales

00 01

02 03 04

05 06 07 08

09

Time
98

Forecast future sales


based on past sales
growth
Sales

Trend Line

00 01

02 03 04

05 06 07 08

09

Time
99

Forecast future sales


based on past sales
growth
Sales Estimates for
next 2 years

Sales

Growth Rate

00 01

02 03 04

05 06 07 08

09

Time
100

Forecast future sales based on


past sales growth
Also include the effects of any events
which are expected to impact future sales
(new products or economic conditions)
Sales

New Product
Introduced

00 01

02 03 04

05 06 07 08

09

Time
101

Forecast future sales based on past sales


growth
Also include the effects of any events which
are expected to impact future sales (new
products or economic conditions)
Sales

New Product
Introduced
00 01

02 03 04

05 06 07 08

09

Time
102

Sales Growth Imposes Costs on the


Firm
Will require additional resources
Current Assets: Inventory, A/R, Cash
Fixed Assets: Plant and Equipment

2009

2010
103

Pro Forma Financial


Statements
Pro forma financial statements are
forecasts of the firms future financial
statements based on a certain set of
assumptions about sales trends and
the relationships between sales and
various financial variables, and
between other financial statement
variables relative to each other.
104

Producing Pro Formas


Example Data for Marginal Product Inc.
Sales will increase from $5million to $8 million.
Production is at full capacity (24 hrs. per day).
Dividend payout will be 70% of NI.
Spontaneous balance sheet accounts.
increase in a constant proportion to sales.

105

Producing Pro Formas


Step 1:
Determining Sales Growth
$8 - $5
= 60%
$5
Income Statement
Marginal Product Inc.
figures in 000s
figures in 000s

Current
Current Projected
Projected

Sales $5,000
COGS 4,133
EBIT
867
867
Int
200
EBT
667
Tax (.40) 267
NI
400

$8,000

Note: The projected sales


will be determined after input
from many different units or
departments of the firm.

106

Producing Pro Formas


Step 2:
Income Statement
Marginal Product Inc.
figures in 000s
figures in 000s

Current Projected

Sales $5,000
$8,000
$5,000
COGS 4,133
6,613
EBIT
867
1,387
Int
200
200
200
EBT
667
1,187
Tax (.40) 267
475
NI
400
712
400
712

Calculate projected Net


Income. New COGS =
Old COGS x 1.6 = 6,613
Note: There is no increase yet
in the interest charges since
Marginal Products managers
have not yet decided how they
will finance the growth.

107

Producing Pro Formas


Step 3:
Forecast increase in
assets (% of sales)
Balance Sheet
Marginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s

Assets
Current Projected
Liabilities
Current
Current Assets
$2.5
Accounts Payable $1.0
Net Fixed Assets
3.0
Accrued Expenses 0.5
Total
$5.5
Notes Payable
0.0
Current Liabilities
$1.5
Long Term Debt
$2.0
Common Stock
0.5
Retained Earnings 1.5
Common Equity
$2.0
Total Claims
$5.5

Projected

108

Producing Pro Formas


Step 3:
Forecast increase in assets (% of sales). If
sales increase by 60%, so too will any asset
that remains a constant percent of sales.
Balance Sheet
Marginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s

Assets
Current Projected
Liabilities
Current
Projected
Current Assets
$2.5
$4.0
Accounts Payable $1.0
Net Fixed Assets
3.0
Accrued Expenses 0.5
Total
$5.5
Notes Payable
0.0
Current Liabilities
$1.5
Long Term Debt
$2.0
Common Stock
0.5
$2.5(1+.60) = $4.0
Retained Earnings 1.5
Common Equity
$2.0
Total Claims
$5.5
109

Producing Pro Formas


Step 3:
Forecast increase in
assets (% of sales)
Balance Sheet
Marginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s

Assets
Current Projected
Liabilities
Current
Projected
Current Assets
$2.5
$4.0
Accounts Payable $1.0
Net Fixed Assets
3.0
4.8
Accrued Expenses 0.5
Total
$5.5
$8.8
Notes Payable
0.0
Current Liabilities
$1.5
Long Term Debt
$2.0
+$3.30
Common Stock
0.5
Retained Earnings 1.5
Common Equity
$2.0
$3.0(1+.60) = $4.8
Total Claims
$5.5
110

Producing Pro Formas


Step 4:
Forecast increase in
spontaneous liabilities.
Balance Sheet
Marginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s

Assets
Current Projected
Liabilities
Current
Projected
Current
$2.5
$4.0
Accounts Payable $1.0
$1.6
Current Assets
Assets
$2.5
$4.0
Net
3.0
4.8
Accrued Expenses 0.5
Net Fixed
Fixed Assets
Assets
3.0
0.5
Total
$5.5
$8.8
Notes Payable
0.0
Total
$5.5
$8.8
0.0
Current
$1.5
Current Liabilities
Liabilities
$1.0(1+.60)
=
$1.60
Long Term Debt
$2.0
Common Stock
0.5
0.5
Retained Earnings 1.5
1.5
Common Equity
$2.0
Total
$5.5
Total Claims

111

Producing Pro Formas


Step 4:
Forecast increase in
spontaneous liabilities.
Balance Sheet
Marginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s

Assets
Current Projected
Liabilities
Current
Projected
Current Assets
$2.5
$4.0
Accounts Payable $1.0
$1.6
Net Fixed Assets
3.0
4.8
Accrued Expenses 0.5
.8
Total
$5.5
$8.8
Notes Payable
0.0
Current Liabilities
$1.5
$0.5(1+.60) = $0.80
Long Term Debt
$2.0
Common Stock
0.5
Retained Earnings 1.5
Common Equity
$2.0
Total Claims
$5.5

112

Producing Pro Formas


Step 5:
Forecast increase in
retained earnings.
Balance Sheet
Marginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s

Assets
Current
Projectedearnings
Liabilities
Current
Projected
New retained
Current Assets
$2.5
$4.0
Accounts Payable $1.0
$1.6
=Old
retained
earnings
Net Fixed Assets
3.0
4.8
Accrued Expenses 0.5
.8
+ additions
earnings
Total
$5.5
$8.8to ret.Notes
Payable
0.0
Liabilitiespayout)]
$1.5
=1.5 +Current
[NI x (1-div.
Term Debt
$2.0
=1.5 + [.712 x (1-.7)]Long
= 1.7
Common Stock
0.5
Retained Earnings 1.5
1.7
Common Equity
$2.0
Total Claims
$5.5

113

Producing Pro Formas


Step 6:
Hold other accounts constant
to see how much additional
funds will be needed.
Balance Sheet
Marginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s

Assets
Current Projected
Liabilities
Current
Projected
Current Assets
$2.5
$4.0
Accounts Payable $1.0
$1.6
Net Fixed Assets
3.0
4.8
Accrued Expenses 0.5
.8
Total
$5.5
$8.8
Notes Payable
0.0
0.0
Current Liabilities
$1.5
2.4
Long Term Debt
$2.0
2.0
Common Stock
0.5
.5
Retained Earnings 1.5
1.7
Common Equity
$2.0
2.2
Total Claims
$5.5
$6.6
114

Producing Pro Formas


Step 7:
Additional funds needed
(AFN) = projected assets
minus projected claims
Balance Sheet
Marginal Product Inc.
figures in 000,000s

Assets
Current Projected
Liabilities
Current
Projected
Current Assets
$2.5
$4.0
Accounts Payable $1.0
$1.6
Net Fixed Assets
3.0
4.8
Accrued Expenses 0.5
.8
Total
$5.5
$8.8
Notes Payable
0.0
0.0
Current Liabilities
$1.5
2.4
Long Term Debt
$2.0
2.0
AFN
Common Stock
0.5
.5
= $8.8 - 6.6
Retained Earnings 1.5
1.7
= $2.2 mill.
Common Equity
$2.0
2.2
Total Claims
$5.5
$6.6

115

Producing Pro Formas


Step 7:
Additional funds needed
(AFN) = projected assets
minus projected claims
Balance Sheet
Marginal Product Inc.

Raise $2.2 million Using:

figures in 000,000s

Assets
Current Projected
Liabilities
Current
Projected
Notes
Payable,
and/or
LT
Current Assets
$2.5
$4.0
Accounts Payable $1.0
$1.6
Debt,Expenses
and/or Common
Stock
Net Fixed Assets
3.0
4.8
Accrued
0.5
.8
Total
$5.5
$8.8
Notes Payable
0.0
0.0
Current Liabilities
$1.5
2.4
AFN
Long Term Debt
$2.0
2.0
= $8.8 - 6.6
Common Stock
0.5
.5
Retained Earnings 1.5
1.7
= $2.2 mill.
Common Equity
$2.0
2.2
Total Claims
$5.5
$6.6

116

Producing Pro Formas


Summary
Determine sales growth.
Calculate projected net income.
Project assets needed to support the
new sales level.
Project increases in spontaneous
asset and liability accounts.
Project addition to retained earnings.
Determine the difference between
projected assets and projected
liabilities & equity.
117

Financing feedback
If outside financing is required, the new
debt or equity may affect your original
projections of the amount of the addition
to retained earnings (due to increased
interest or dividends on the income
statement).
In this case, the pro forma should be
recast with the new information to make
final projections of AFN.

118

Homework Questions
1. Briefly discuss the three general
approaches to forecasting.
2. Why is forecasting important?
3. Distinguish between the cash budget
and the capital budget.

119

4.

Given the following data on the Sands Corporation, project the balance sheet for the coming year using
the percentage of sales technique:
Current Sales: $650,000
Next years sales: $925,000
After-tax profits: 6% of Sales
Dividend payout ratio: 40%
Current retained earnings: $200,000
Accounts receivable as a percent of sales: 10%
Cash as a percent of sales: 5%
Inventory as a percent of sales: 32%
Net fixed assets as a percent of sales: 38%
Accounts payable as a percent of sales: 6%
Accruals as a percent of sales: 12%
Next years common stock: $200,000

ASSETS
Cash
Accounts receivable
Inventory
Net fixed assets
(d)
Total

(e)

Sands Corporation
Balance Sheet
December 31, 2005
LIABILITIES AND EQUITIES
(a)
Accounts payable
(b)
Notes payable
(c)
Accruals
Common stock
(i )
Retained earnings
(j )
Total
(k)

(f )
(g)
(h)

120

Risk and Return

Chapter 7

121

Learning Objectives
Define risk, risk aversion, and riskreturn tradeoff.
Measure risk.
Identify different types of risk.
Explain methods of risk reduction.
Describe how firms compensate for
risk.
Discuss the CAPM.
122

Expected Return
Expected return is the mean of the
probability distribution of possible
returns.
Future returns are not known with
certainty. The standard deviation
is a measure of this uncertainty.

123

Expected Return
Expected return is the mean of the
probability distribution of possible
returns.
Future returns are not known with
certainty
To calculate expected return,
compute thewhere
weighted average of
possible returns
= Expected return

V i x Pi)

Vi
Pi

= Possible value of return


during period i
= Probability of V
124
occurring during
period i

Expected Return
Calculation
Example:
You are evaluating Zumwalt Corporations
common stock. You estimate the following
returns given different states of the economy
State of Economy Probability Return
Economic Downturn
Zero Growth
Moderate Growth
High Growth

.10
.20
.40
.30

5%
5%
10%
20%

Expected rate of return on


the stock is 10.5%
125

=
=
=
=
k=

0.5%
1.0%
4.0%
6.0%
10.5%

Risk and Rates of


Return
Risk is the potential for unexpected
events to occur.
If two financial alternatives are
similar except for their degree of
risk, most people will choose the
less risky alternative because they
are risk averse i.e. they dont like
risk.
Risk averse investors will require
higher expected rates of return as
compensation for taking on higher
126
levels of risk.

Measurement of Investment
Risk
Example:
You evaluate two investments: Zumwalt
Corporations common stock and a one year
Gov't Bond paying a guaranteed 2%.
There is risk in owning Zumwalt
stock, no risk in owning the T-bills
Probability
of Return

Probability
of Return

T-Bill

Zumwalt Corp

100%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2%

Return

5% 5% 10% 20% Return


127

Measurement of Investment Risk


Standard Deviation (measures the
dispersion of returns. It is the square root of
the variance.

SQRT( P(V - )2)

= variance

Example:
22 = .005725 = 0.5725%
Compute the standard deviation on
Zumwalt
= SQRT ofcommon
0.005725
stock. the mean () was previously computed
as 7.566%
10.5%
= .07566 =
State of Economy Probability Return
Economic Downturn
.10
(- 5% Zero Growth
.20
( 5% Moderate Growth
.40
( 10% High Growth
.30
( 20% -

10.5%)2
10.5%)2
10.5%)2
10.5%)2

128

= .24025%
= .0605%
= .001%
= .27075%

Risk and Rates of


Return
Risk of a company's stock can be separated
into two parts:
Firm Specific Risk - Risk due to factors within the firm

Market
related
Risk
due to overall
price will
most likely
fall -ifRisk
a major
Stock
market conditions
government
contract is discontinued unexpectedly.

Stock

Stock price is likely to rise if overall stock


market is doing well.

Diversification: If investors hold stock in many companies,


the firm specific risk will be cancelled out.
Even if investors hold many stocks, cannot eliminate the
market related risk
129

Risk and Rates of


Return
Risk and Diversification
If an investor holds enough stocks in
portfolio (about 15-20) company
specific (diversifiable) risk is virtually
eliminated
Variability
of Returns

Market Related
Risk

# of stocks in Portfolio
130

Risk and Rates of


Return
Risk and Diversification
If an investor holds enough stocks in
portfolio (about 20) company specific
(diversifiable) risk is virtually
eliminated
Variability
of Returns

Firm Specific Risk

# of stocks in Portfolio
131

Risk and Rates of Return


Risk and Diversification
If an investor holds enough stocks in
portfolio (about 20) company specific
(diversifiable) risk is virtually
eliminated
Variability
of Returns

Total Risk

# of stocks in Portfolio
132

Risk and Rates of Return


Market risk is the risk of the overall
market, so to measure we need to
compare individual stock returns to the
overall market returns.
A proxy for the market is usually used: An
index of stocks such as the S&P 500
Market risk measures how individual stock
returns are affected by this market
Regress individual stock returns on the
returns of the market index
133

Risk and Rates of Return


Regress individual stock returns on
Market index
PepsiCo
Return

15%
10%
5%

-15%

-10%

-5%

S&P
Return
5%

10%

15%

-5%
-10%
-15%
134

Risk and Rates of Return


Regress individual stock returns on Market index. Plot
ordered pairs every 6 months for ten years starting in
January 1999.
PepsiCo
Return

15%
10%
5%

-15%

-10%

-5%

Jan 1999
PepsiCo-0.37%
S&P
-1.99%

S&P
Return
5%

10%

15%

-5%
-10%
-15%
135

Risk and Rates of Return


Regress individual stock returns on
Market index
PepsiCo
Return

15%
10%
5%

-15%

-10%

Plot
Remaining
Points

-5%

S&P
Return
5%

10%

15%

-5%
-10%
-15%
136

Risk and Rates of Return


Regress individual stock returns on
Market index returns
PepsiCo
Return

15%
10%

Best Fit
Regression
Line
-15%

-10%

5%

-5%

S&P
Return
5%

10%

15%

-5%
-10%

-15%
137

Risk and Rates of Return


Regress individual stock returns on Market
index returns
PepsiCo
Return

15%
10%

-5%

-15%

-10%

rise 5.5%
=
Slope =
= 1.1
run 5%

-5%

5%

S&P
Return
5%

10%

15%

-5%
-10%
-15%
138

Risk and Rates of


Return
Market Risk is measured by Beta
Beta is the slope of the regression
(characteristic) line.

139

Risk and Rates of Return


Market Risk is measured by Beta
Beta is the slope of the regression
(characteristic) line
PepsiCo
Return

15%
10%
5%

-15% -10%

-5%

S&P
Return
5%

10%

15%

-5%
-10%

Slope = 1.1 = Beta (


-15%

140

Risk and Rates of Return


Interpreting Beta

Beta = 1
Market Beta = 1
Company with a beta of 1 has average risk

Beta < 1
Low Risk Company
Return on stock will be less affected by the market
than average

Beta > 1
High Market Risk Company
Stock return will be more affected by the market
than average
141

The Capital Asset Pricing Model


Investors adjust their required
rates of return to compensate for
risk.
The CAPM measures required rate of
return for investments, given the
degree of market risk measured by
beta.
Security Market Line
kj = kRF + j ( kM kRF )
where:
Kj = required rate of return on the jth security
KRF = risk free rate of return
KM = required rate of return on the market
142
Bj = Beta for the jth security

CAPM Example
Suppose that the required return on
the market is 12% and the risk free
rate is 5%.
Security Market Line

kj = kRF + j ( kM kRF )

143

CAPM Example
Suppose that the required return on
the market is 12% and the risk free
rate is 5%.
kj = 5% + j (12% 5% )
15%
10%
5%

Risk Free Rate


.50

1.0

Beta
1.5
144

CAPM Example
Suppose that the required return on
the market is 12% and the risk free
rate is 5%.
kj = 5% + j (12% 5% )
Risk &
Return on
market

15%
10%
5%

Risk Free Rate


.50

1.0

Beta
1.5
145

CAPM Example
Suppose that the required return on
the market is 12% and the risk free
rate is 5%.
15%

10%

SML
Market

Connect Points for


Security Market Line

5%

Beta
.50

1.0

1.5
146

CAPM Example
Suppose that the required return on the
market is 12% and the risk free rate is
5%.
If beta = 1.2
k = 13.4
kj = 5% + j (12% 5% )
j

15%
13.4%
10%

Company kj

SML

Market

5%

Beta
.50

1.0 1.2

1.5
147

Homework
1. You hold a diversified portfolio of stocks and are
considering investing in the XYZ Company. The firms
prospects look good and you estimate the following
probability distribution of possible returns:
Probability
70%
20%
10%

Return
15%
9%
20%

The return on the market is 13.5% and the risk free rate
is 7%. You have calculated XYZs beta from past returns as
1.3 and you believe this will be the future beta.
a. What is the expected return for XYZ?
b. What is the required return for XYZ according to the
CAPM?
148

Homework
2. Assume your existing portfolio is valued at $9,000 and its beta is 1.0.
You plan to buy an additional $3,000 of a particular stock that has a
beta of 1.8 (without selling any other stock). What is the beta of the new
portfolio?
3. Distinguish between business risk and financial risk.
4. What is risk aversion? How does the assumption of risk aversion
affect the risk/return tradeoff?
5. Compare diversifiable and nondiversifiable risk. What are some
examples of each type of risk?

149

The Time Value


of Money
Chapter 8

Learning Objectives
The time value of money
and its importance to
business.
The future value and
present value of a single
amount.
The future value and
present value of an
annuity.

The Time Value of


Money
Money grows over time when it

earns interest.
Therefore, money that is to be
received at some time in the
future is worth less than the
same dollar amount to be
received today.
Similarly, a debt of a given
amount to be paid in the future
are less burdensome than that

1. Future Value of Single Sum

$
PV

CPT

FV

2. Future Value of an
Annuity

Toda
y

PMT

CPT

FV

3. Sinking
Fund

?
Toda
y

FV

?
i

?
CPT

PMT

155

4. Present Value
Single Payment

?
FV

CPT

PV

156

5. Present Value of the Annuit

?
PMT

$
i

$
N

CPT

PV

157

6. Amortized Loans

$
PV

?
i

?
N

CPT

158

PMT

Financial Calculator
Example: Solution
You invest - FV
$200 at 10%. How
much is it worth
after 5 years?
1) Calculator
Enter:
N = 5
I/YR = 10
PV
= -200
CPT FV = ?

2) Using Formula:

FV = $200 (1.10)5 = $322.10

322.10

Do all these homework problems on


your overhead homework sheets: use
your calculator and show the keys you
would press and circle your answer:
If you would have bought Berkshire Hathaway stock 20
years ago and spent $10,000 for your investment, how
much would you have today if the average annual
compounded rate of return was 18%?
How long it will take for $2,500 to become $8,865 if it is
deposited and earns 5% per year compounded annually?
(Calculate to the closest year).
If you deposit a lump sum of $1,200 today into a savings
account offering annual interest of 5% compounded
monthly, how much will you have in the account at the end
of three years?
If you deposit $100 in the bank today at an annual rate of
5.5% compounded annually, how long will it take to double
in value?

Annuities
An annuity is a series of equal
cash flows spaced evenly over
time.
For example, you pay your
landlord an annuity since your
rent is the same amount, paid on
the same day of the month for
the entire year.

Jan

Feb

$500

Mar

$500

$500

Dec

$500

$500
161

Future Value of an Annuity


0
$0

1
$100

2
$100

3
$100

You deposit $100 each year


(end of year) into a savings
account.
How much would this account
have in it at the end of 3 years
if interest were earned at a rate
162

Future Value of an
Annuity
Using the
Calculator:
Dont forget to clear
your calculator of the
previous problem!

N=3
I/Y = 2
PV = -$200
CPT FV = $212.24

$212.2
4

Do all these homework problems on


your overhead homework sheets: use
your calculator and show the keys you
would press and circle your answer:

What is the future value of an ordinary annuity of


$1,000 each year for 10 years, assuming a 4%
compounding rate?

What is the future value of an annuity due of $1,000


each year for 10 years assuming a 4% compounding
rate?
Dan plans to fund his IRA with a contribution of $ 200
per month for the next 10 years. If Dan can earn 6%
per year on his contributions, how much will he have
at the end of the 10th year?
James plans to fund his IRA with a lump-sum today of
$10,000 and 20 annual deposits of $2,000 for the next
25 years. If he can earn 5% compounded annually,

Future Value of an Annuity Due

$100

$100

$100

FVA=?

You deposit $100 each year (beginning of year)


into a savings account.
How much would this account have in it at the
end of 3 years if interest were earned at a rate
of 8% annually?
165

Annuity Due:
Calculator
Solution
Example:
You receive
$100 per year for 3
years. How much is it
worth after 3 years if
you can earn 4%
N=3
annually?
I/Y = 4
PMT = -$100
CPT FV = $312.16

Do all these homework problems on


your overhead homework sheets: use
your calculator and show the keys you
would press and circle your answer:
*NOW ASSUME ALL PAYMENTS ARE AT THE BEGINNING
What is the future value
of an
ordinary annuity of
OF THE
PERIOD*
$1,000 each year for 10 years, assuming a 4%
compounding rate?
What is the future value of an annuity due of $1,000
each year for 10 years assuming a 4% compounding
rate?
Dan plans to fund his IRA with a contribution of $ 200
per month for the next 10 years. If Dan can earn 6%
per year on his contributions, how much will he have
at the end of the 10th year?
James plans to fund his IRA with a lump-sum today of
$10,000 and 20 annual deposits of $2,000 for the next
25 years. If he can earn 5% compounded annually,

Financial Calculator Solution


PV of a Single Sum
You Expect to receive $100 in
EIGHT years. If can
invest at 3%, what is
it worth today?

Calculator
Enter:
N =8
I/YR = 3
FV = 100
CPT PV78.9
=?
4

78.9
4

168

Present Value of an Annuity


Calculator Solution
0

257.7
1
PV=?

$100

Enter:
N =3
I/YR = 8
PMT = 100
CPT PV = ? 257.7
1

$100

$100

-257.71

N I/ P PM F
Y V
V

169

Present Value of an Annuity


Due

How much would the following cash flows


be worth
earn 8% on
0to you today if
1 you could
2
3
your deposits?
$100

$100

$100

$100.
$92.60
00
$85.73
$278.33 BGN
N=3
PMT = -100
I/Y = 8
CPT PV = 278.33

278.3
3

170

Amortized Loans
A loan that is paid off in
equal amounts that
include principal as well
as interest.
Solving for loan
payments.
171

Amortized Loans
You borrow $5,000 from your parents to purchase a used car.
You agree to make payments at the end of each year for the
next 5 years. If the interest rate on this loan is 6%, how much
is your annual payment?
0

$5,000 $?

$?

ENTER:
N =5
I/Y = 6
PV = 5,000
CPT PMT =
- ?
1,186.

$?

$?

$?

1,186.9
8
N I/Y P PMT FV
V
172

Do all these homework problems on


your overhead homework sheets: use
your calculator and show the keys you
would press and circle your answer:

1. Calculate the present value of annual payments of $3,000


per year for ten years at 8%:
a. Ordinary Annuity
b. Annuity Due

2. How much will you have at the end of the 6th year if you invest $5,000 annually for six years at 7% annual rate, if
you:
a. Start one year from today
b. Start today
3. A bank agrees to give you a loan of $12,000,000 and you have to pay $1,309,908 per year (end of year) for 26
years. What is your rate of interest? What would the payments be if this were a monthly payment loan?
4. You have found the perfect burial plot. Of course, you don't plan to need it for 60 years. The plot costs $12,000
today and burial plot prices are increasing at 4% per year. How much do you need to deposit at the beginning of
each of the next 60 years to pay for the plot if you can earn 11% on your deposit?

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