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"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
A numerical measure of the likelihood that a specific event will occur.
An event that cannot occur has zero probability which is called an impossible event
and if an event that is certain to occur has a probability equal to 1 is called sure event.
There are four (4) basic probability rules that will be helpful in solving probability problems.
1. The probability of an event is within the range 0 to 1.
2. The sum of the probabilities of all simple events for an experiment is always 1.
For an experiment:
3. If an event cannot occur, its probability is 0.
4. If an event is certain, then the probability is 1.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Complimentary Events
The complement of an event is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not included in
(Formula 5-9)
(Formula 5-9)
(Formula 5-9)
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Classical probability assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur.
(Formula 5-10)
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Example
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card. Find these probabilities
a.
b.
Getting a spade
c.
Getting a 5 or a clubs
d.
Getting a 5 or a 7
e.
f.
Getting 14 of clubs
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Example
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card. Find these probabilities
Getting king of hearts
Solution
Since there is only one king of hearts in an event E and 52 possible outcomes in the sample space.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Example
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card. Find these probabilities
Getting a spade
Solution
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Example
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card. Find these probabilities
Getting a 5 or a clubs
Solution
There are four 5s and 13 clubs in an event E, but the 5 of spades are counted twice in this listing.
Thus, there are 16 possible outcomes of drawing 5 or a clubs.
Therefore, the probability of getting a 5 or a clubs is 0.31 or 31%.
This is an example of the inclusive or.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Example
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card. Find these probabilities
Getting a 5 or a 7
Solution
There are four 5s and four 7s in an event E.
Therefore, the probability of getting a 5 or a 7 is 0.15 or 15%.
This is an example of the exclusive or.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Example
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card. Find these probabilities
Getting a card which is not a spade
Solution
Therefore, the probability of getting a card which is not a spade is 0.75 or 75%.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Example
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card. Find these probabilities
Getting a card which is not a spade
Alternative Solution
Recall that P(spade) is 0.25 or 25%, we simply deduct this to 1 to obtain the probability of getting a
non-spade card. Well use P(E) = 1 P(E), where P(E) is the probability of getting a non-spade
card.
Therefore, the probability of getting a card which is not a spade is 0.75 or 75%.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Example
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card. Find these probabilities
Getting a 14 of clubs
Solution
It is impossible to get a 14 of clubs in the sample space of an ordinary deck of card.
Therefore, the probability of getting a 14 of clubs is 0%.
This is an example of impossible event.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Empirical probability is the type of probability that uses frequency distribution based on observations to
determine numerical probabilities of events.
(Formula 5-11)
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Example
In a sample of 50 college students, 18 are
Year Level
Frequency
Freshman
18
Sophomore
23
Junior
Senior
Total
50
A student is a freshman
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Solution
PROBABILITY
Example
In a sample of 50 college students, 18 are
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Solution
PROBABILITY
Example
In a sample of 50 college students, 18 are
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Solution
PROBABILITY
Example
In a sample of 50 college students, 18 are
Solution
A student is a freshman
A student is a freshman or a sophomore
A student is neither a freshman nor a junior
A student is not a senior
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Example
In a sample of 50 college students, 18 are
Solution
A student is a freshman
A student is a freshman or a sophomore
A student is neither a freshman nor a junior
A student is not a senior
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
PROBABILITY
Subjective probability is the probability assigned to an event based on subjective judgment, experience,
information, and belief.
For example,
A sportswriter may say that there is 90% probability that University of the East Red Warriors will win the UAAP
championships.
A physician may say that, on the basis of his diagnosis, there is a 60% chance that the patient will recover.
A financial analysis may say that there is 80% probability that peso dollar exchange rate will decrease by 3 pesos.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
independent, dependent, and mutually exclusive comes into the picture in dealing with
probability.
There are important things to note about mutually exclusive, independent, and
dependent events.
The first is of which is mutually exclusive are always dependent
Secondly is independent events are never mutually exclusive
Lastly is dependent events may or may not be mutually exclusive.
The exception of the first and second is that when at least one of the two events has a zero
probability.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Two events A and B are dependent events for which the outcome or occurrence of event A affects
the outcome or occurrence of event B in such a way that the probability is changed. In other words,
A and B are dependent events if,
or
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same time.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
(Formula 5-12)
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Rule 2
(Formula 5-13)
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Example
A box contains 4 red marbles, 8 blue marbles, and 7 green marbles. If a person selects a marble at
Solution
Since the box contains 4 red marbles, 7 green marbles, and a total of 19 marbles.
Therefore, selecting a marble at random thats either a red or green is 0.58 or 58%.
The events are mutually exclusive.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Example
A single card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card. Find the probability that it is a queen or a
diamonds.
Solution
Since a queen of diamonds means a queen and a diamond, it has been counted twice-once as a
queen and once as a diamond; thus, one of the outcomes must be deducted, as shown
Therefore, drawing a queen or a diamond from an ordinary deck is 0.31 or 31%.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Example
In a certain insurance company there are 20
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Salespers
on
Male
Female
Total
Senior
18
12
20
Junior
14
16
30
Total
22
28
50
Solution
Example
In a certain insurance company there are 20
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Solution
The probability is
0.72 or 72%.
The multiplication rules can be applied to determine the probability of two or more events
that occur in sequence. The probability of the intersection of two events is called their
joint probability. It is written as .
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
(Formula 5-14)
Rule 2
When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is
(Formula 5-15)
Rule 3
When two events are mutually exclusive their joint probability is always zero. If A and B are two
Example
A die is rolled and a coin is flipped. Find the probability of getting a 5 on the die and tail on the coin.
Solution
Using the sample space for the die which is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6; for the coin which is Head, Tail.
Therefore, the probability of getting a 5 on the die and tail on the coin is 0.08 or 8%.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Example
A box contains 3 red balls, 8 blue balls, and 9 green balls. A first ball is selected, and then it is
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Example
A box contains 3 red balls, 8 blue balls, and 9 green balls. A first ball is selected, and then it is
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Example
A SJS survey found that one out of 5 Filipinos say they are in favor of the death penalty for heinous
crimes. If the people are selected at random, find the probability that all three will say that they are
in favor of death penalty.
Solution
Let D denote that a person is in favor of death penalty. Then
Therefore, the probability that all three will say that they are in favor of death penalty is 0.01 or
1%.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Example
Reina owns a collection of 25 bags, of which 6 are made by Guess. If the 2 bags are selected at
Solution
Since the events are dependent,
Therefore, the probability that both are made by Guess is 0.05 or 5%.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Example
The RSS Financing Inc. found that 50% of the members had salary long (S) with the financing
company. Of these members 8% also had a calamity loan (C). If a member is selected at random
find the probability that the member has both loans with the company.
Solution
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Marginal Probability
Marginal Probability is a probability of a single event without consideration of any other event; it is
(Formula 5-17)
Where
Recall that two events are mutually exclusive if both the events cannot occur simultaneous, while
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is probability that an event will occur given that another event has already
occurred. If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability is given as P(A|B) and reads as
the probability of A given that B has already occurred. In symbol,
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
of selecting a blue ball and a red ball is 12/30, and the probability of selecting a blue ball on the first
draw is 3/5, find the probability of selecting a red ball on the second draw, given that the first ball
selected was a blue ball.
Solution
Let
Then,
Thus, the probability of selecting a red ball on the second draw given that the first ball selected was
chicken meal and sundae, find the probability that the customer orders chicken meal will also order
a sundae.
Solution
Let
Then,
Thus, the customer has a 0.53 or 53% probability of ordering sundae, given that he/she ordered
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Number
Number of
of TVs
TVs
owned
owned
Frequency
Frequency
Relative
Relative Frequency
Frequency
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Number of
TVs owned
Frequency
Relative
Frequency
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
A discrete probability distribution consists of the values a random variable can assume
and the corresponding probabilities of the values. The probabilities are determined
theoretically or by observation. There are several requirements for a distribution of a
discrete random variable. For a discrete random variable X than can assume values ,
1. , for all (The probability outcome is between 0 and 1).
2.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Example
Construct a probability distribution for rolling
a die.
Solution
Since the sample spaces of a die is 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6 and each outcome has a probability of ,
the distribution is,
Outcome X
Probability
P(X)
Cumulative
F(X)
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Solution
The 8 possible events, and the
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
TTT
TTH
THT
HTT
THH
HTH
HHT
HHH
Example
Construct a probability distribution for
Solution
Therefore, the probability distribution for the
Outcome X
Probability P(X)
Cumulative F(X)
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Formula (5-19)
Where:
tails occur.
Asking 200 people if they watch ABC news.
Rolling a die to see if a 5 appears.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
number of trials)
Asking 20 people how old they are (not two
outcomes)
Drawing 5 cards from a deck for a poker
Example
What is the probability of rolling exactly two sixes in 6 rolls of a die?
Solution
There are five things you need to do to work a binomial story problem.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Solution
Anytime a six appears, it is a success
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Solution
Anytime a six appears, it is a success
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Example
What is the probability of rolling exactly two sixes in 6 rolls of a die?
Solution
Notice that each of the 15 probabilities are exactly the same: (1/6)^2 * (5/6)^4.
Also, note that the 1/6 is the probability of success and you needed 2 successes. The 5/6 is the
probability of failure, and if 2 of the 6 trials were success, then 4 of the 6 must be failures. Note that
2 is the value of x and 4 is the value of n-x.
Further note that there are fifteen ways this can occur. This is the number of ways 2 successes can
be occur in 6 trials without repetition and order not being important, or a combination of 6 things, 2
at a time.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Solution
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
A Poisson distribution is the probability distribution that results from a Poisson experiment.
Attributes of a Poisson Experiment
APoisson experimentis astatistical experimentthat has the following properties:
The experiment results in outcomes that can be classified as successes or failures.
The average number of successes () that occurs in a specified region is known.
The probability that a success will occur is proportional to the size of the region.
The probability that a success will occur in an extremely small region is virtually zero.
Note that the specified region could take many forms. For instance, it could be a length, an area, a volume, a
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Notation
The following notation is helpful, when we talk about the Poisson distribution.
A constant equal to approximately 2.71828. (Actually,eis the base of the natural logarithm system.)
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
properties:
(Formula 5-20)
Where
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Example
The average number of homes sold by the Acme Realty company is 2 homes per day. What is the
Solution
This is a Poisson experiment in which we know the following:
; since 2 homes are sold per day, on average.
; since we want to find the likelihood that 3 homes will be sold tomorrow.
; sinceeis a constant equal to approximately 2.71828.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Example
The average number of homes sold by the Acme Realty company is 2 homes per day. What is the
Solution
We plug these values into the formula 5-20 as follows:
Thus, the probability of selling 3 homes tomorrow is 0.18 or 18%.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Solution
The expected value during any one five minute period would be 500 / 96 = 5.21.
The 96 is because there are 96 five-minute periods in eight hours. So, you expect about 5.2 customers in 5
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE
Example
If there are 500 customers per eight-hour day in a check-out lane, what is the probability that there
Solution
We plug these values into the formula 5-20 as follows:
Thus, the probability that there will be exactly 3 in line during any five-minute period is
0.14 or 14%.
"PROBABILITY THEORY IS NOTHING BUT COMMON SENSE REDUCED TO CALCULATION." - P.S. LAPLACE