Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Risk Management
Instructor: Mike ODell
This presentations was derived from the textbook used for this class:
McConnell, Steve, Rapid Development, Chapter 5.
5 year/$8M 6+ years/$100M
RISK
ASSESSMENT
RISK
MANAGEMENT
ANALYSIS
PRIORITIZATION
PLANNING
RISK
CONTROL
RESOLUION
MONITORING
5
Resolution:
Resolution executing your plan to deal
with the risks
Monitoring:
Monitoring staying on top of your plan
and re-evaluate for new risks
7
6 Risk Identification
CLASSIC MISTAKES
Feature creep
Gold-plating (requirements/developer)
Shortchanged QA
Overly optimistic schedules
Inadequate design
Silver-bullet syndrome
Research-oriented development
Weak, poorly-trained personnel
Contractor failure
Friction between developers & customers
8
6 Risk Identification
Use Table 5-3: Potential Schedule Risks
Schedule Creation
Organization and Management
Development Environment
End-users
Customer
Contractors
Requirements
Product
External Environment
Personnel
Design and Implementation
Process
Size of
Loss
Risk
Exposure
50%
5 wks
2.5 wks
10%
20 wks
2.0 wks
15%
15 wks
2.25 wks
10%
4 wks
0.4 wks
20%
10 wks
2.0 wks
30%
3 wks
0.9 wks
X wks
Y wks
Risk
Etc.
TOTAL PROJECT OVERRUN
10
6 Risk Analysis
Estimating Size of Loss
Experience
Delphi or group consensus
Betting analogies (How much would you bet that?)
Adjective calibration (Good probability = x%, Fair = y%, )
11
6 Risk Prioritization
Establishes a focus on your risks based on the expected
impact (risk exposure) of each risk
Greatest potential impact must also be addressed
80/20 Rule
Probability
of Loss
Size of
Loss
Risk
Exposure
50%
5 wks
2.5 wks
15%
15 wks
2.25 wks
10%
20 wks
2.0 wks
20%
10 wks
2.0 wks
30%
3 wks
0.9 wks
10%
4 wks
0.4 wks
X wks
Y wks
1.3+
5.65 wks
Risk
Etc.
TOTAL PROJECT OVERRUN
12
6 Risk-Management Planning
Develop a specific, detailed plan for
resolution of each high-priority risk
identified
13
6 Risk Resolution
Risks can be resolved by:
Avoidance:
Avoidance dont do the risky activity
Transference:
Transference move it to another place (team, organization,
contractor, etc.) where its not as likely
Buying information:
information early prototyping, consulting,
Root cause elimination:
elimination get at what causes the risk, and make it
go away
Acceptance/assumption:
Acceptance/assumption dont worry about it, but plan to accept
the consequences
Publicizing:
Publicizing let stakeholders know (so they implicitly accept the
risk), avoid surprises
Controlling:
Controlling develop contingency plans, allocate additional
resources if that will help,
Recording/remembering: write down what you know so you can
use it in the future (e.g., next project, later in this one)
14
6 Risk Monitoring
Risks and potential impact will change
throughout the course of a project
Keep an evolving TOP 10 RISKS list
See Table 5-7 for an example
Review the list frequently
Refine Refine Refine
RISK
ASSESSMENT
RISK
MANAGEMENT
ANALYSIS
PRIORITIZATION
PLANNING
RISK
CONTROL
RESOLUION
MONITORING
16