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CSE Senior Design I

Risk Management
Instructor: Mike ODell
This presentations was derived from the textbook used for this class:
McConnell, Steve, Rapid Development, Chapter 5.

6 Systems Design Project Are Risky


The odds of a large project being
cancelled due to risks encountered: 50%
The odds of a large project finishing on
time are close to zero!
Pete Marwick (1988): 35% of companies
studied had at least one runaway project
project
Allstate office automation

5 year/$8M 6+ years/$100M

Westpac Banking Corporation info systems


5 year/$85M 3years/$150M later: cancelled

6 Why Do Projects Fail?


Generally, from poor risk management

Failure to identify risks


Failure to actively/aggressively plan for,
attack and eliminate project killing risks

Risk comes in different shapes and sizes


Schedule risks (short to long)
Cost risks (small to large)
Technology risks (probable to impossible)

6 Elements of Risk Management


Managing risk consists of: identifying, addressing
and eliminating risks
When does this occur?
(WORST) Crisis management/Fire fighting : addressing risk
after they present a big problem
(BAD) Fix on failure : finding and addressing as they occur.
(OKAY) Risk Mitigation : plan ahead and allocate resources to
address risk that occur, but dont try to eliminate them
before they occur
(GOOD) Prevention : part of the plan to identify and prevent
risks before they become problems
(BEST) Eliminate Root Causes : part of the plan to identify
and eliminate the factors that make specific risks possible

6 Elements of Risk Management


Effective Risk Management is made up of:
Risk Assessment: identify, analyze, prioritize
Risk Control: planning, resolution, monitoring
IDENTIFICATION

RISK
ASSESSMENT

RISK
MANAGEMENT

ANALYSIS
PRIORITIZATION
PLANNING

RISK
CONTROL

RESOLUION
MONITORING
5

6 Risk Assessment Tasks


Identification:
Identification produces a list of risks
that have potential to disrupt your
projects schedule
Analysis:
Analysis assesses the likelihood and
impact of each identified risk, and the risk
levels of possible alternatives
Prioritization:
Prioritization prioritizes the list by impact
serves as the basis for risk control tasks

6 Risk Control Tasks


Planning:
Planning produces your plan for dealing
with each risk
Must ensure consistency of the risk
management plan with your overall project
plan

Resolution:
Resolution executing your plan to deal
with the risks
Monitoring:
Monitoring staying on top of your plan
and re-evaluate for new risks
7

6 Risk Identification

CLASSIC MISTAKES

Most common schedule risks


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Feature creep
Gold-plating (requirements/developer)
Shortchanged QA
Overly optimistic schedules
Inadequate design
Silver-bullet syndrome
Research-oriented development
Weak, poorly-trained personnel
Contractor failure
Friction between developers & customers
8

6 Risk Identification
Use Table 5-3: Potential Schedule Risks

Schedule Creation
Organization and Management
Development Environment
End-users
Customer
Contractors
Requirements
Product
External Environment
Personnel
Design and Implementation
Process

6 Risk Analysis: Exposure Table


Analyze the (schedule) impact of each risk
Create a risk exposure/impact table for each risk.
Risk Exposure = Probability of Loss X Size of Loss
Probability
of Loss

Size of
Loss

Risk
Exposure

Overly optimistic schedule.

50%

5 wks

2.5 wks

Addition of new feature that adds capability to

10%

20 wks

2.0 wks

Inadequate design that requires redesign of major

15%

15 wks

2.25 wks

Board contractor delays delivery of board.

10%

4 wks

0.4 wks

Unstable code base from earlier release of product.

20%

10 wks

2.0 wks

Product requirements take longer than expected to finalize


than planned.

30%

3 wks

0.9 wks

X wks

Y wks

Risk

Etc.
TOTAL PROJECT OVERRUN

10

6 Risk Analysis
Estimating Size of Loss

Impact to schedule IF risk is encountered in its


expected form
Can be precise based on known date for re-review(s),
etc.
May need to break down tasks to lowest known level

Estimating Probability of Loss

Subjective assessment of probability that a given risk


will cause the stated impact
Many different practices can be used:

Experience
Delphi or group consensus
Betting analogies (How much would you bet that?)
Adjective calibration (Good probability = x%, Fair = y%, )
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6 Risk Prioritization
Establishes a focus on your risks based on the expected
impact (risk exposure) of each risk
Greatest potential impact must also be addressed

80/20 Rule
Probability
of Loss

Size of
Loss

Risk
Exposure

Overly optimistic schedule.

50%

5 wks

2.5 wks

Inadequate design that requires redesign of major

15%

15 wks

2.25 wks

Addition of new feature that adds capability to

10%

20 wks

2.0 wks

Unstable code base from earlier release of product.

20%

10 wks

2.0 wks

Product requirements take longer than expected to finalize


than planned.

30%

3 wks

0.9 wks

Board contractor delays delivery of board.

10%

4 wks

0.4 wks

X wks

Y wks

1.3+

5.65 wks

Risk

Etc.
TOTAL PROJECT OVERRUN

12

6 Risk-Management Planning
Develop a specific, detailed plan for
resolution of each high-priority risk
identified

What must be done


When it must be done
How it will be done
Who will do it
When/how it will be monitored/reassessed

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6 Risk Resolution
Risks can be resolved by:

Avoidance:
Avoidance dont do the risky activity
Transference:
Transference move it to another place (team, organization,
contractor, etc.) where its not as likely
Buying information:
information early prototyping, consulting,
Root cause elimination:
elimination get at what causes the risk, and make it
go away
Acceptance/assumption:
Acceptance/assumption dont worry about it, but plan to accept
the consequences
Publicizing:
Publicizing let stakeholders know (so they implicitly accept the
risk), avoid surprises
Controlling:
Controlling develop contingency plans, allocate additional
resources if that will help,
Recording/remembering: write down what you know so you can
use it in the future (e.g., next project, later in this one)
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6 Risk Monitoring
Risks and potential impact will change
throughout the course of a project
Keep an evolving TOP 10 RISKS list
See Table 5-7 for an example
Review the list frequently
Refine Refine Refine

Put someone in charge of monitoring risks


Make it a part of your process & project
plan
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6 Elements of Risk Management


Effective Risk Management is made up of:
Risk Assessment: identify, analyze, prioritize
Risk Control: planning, resolution, monitoring
IDENTIFICATION

RISK
ASSESSMENT

RISK
MANAGEMENT

ANALYSIS
PRIORITIZATION
PLANNING

RISK
CONTROL

RESOLUION
MONITORING
16

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