Probability

Probability
This Chapter is on Probability
We will review methods used on GCSE Maths
There will be new ideas introduced many of
which will require diagrams to help solve
Diagrams will include Probability Trees,
Sample Spaces and Venn Diagrams

Teachings for Exercise 5A

Probability
Probability Reminder
An experiment is a repeatable process that gives outcomes
An event is a collection of one (or more) outcomes
A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes in an
experiment
P(event occurring) =

No. outcomes in that event

Total possible outcomes

Impossible event P = 0
Certain event P = 1
Probabilities are only written as Fractions, Decimals and
Percentages.
5A

Probability
Probability Reminder
Find the probability of a fair dice landing on a 5.
P(event occurring) =

P(5) =

No. outcomes in that event

Total possible outcomes

1
6

5A

Probability

Spinner 2

Probability Reminder
Two spinners are numbered 1-4. Both are spun and the sum of
the numbers calculated. Find P(5) and P(x > 5)
4

Spinner 1

Draw a sample space to show the outcomes.

P(5) =

4
16

P(x > 5) =

1
4

6
16

3
8

5A

Teachings for Exercise 5B

Probability
Using Venn Diagrams
Venn diagrams are a very useful way of representing Probabilities. They
can also help you answer multi-part questions.
S
A

Circle A represents
the Probability of
event A

A rectangle labelled S
represents the
Sample Space

Circle B represents
the Probability of
event B

5B

Probability
Using Venn Diagrams

The Area in the middle represents the

Probability of A and B happening together.

P(A B)

n and

The whole area represents the Probability

of A or B happening (or them together).

S
A

P(A B)

The area outside of A represents the

Probability of A not happening.

P(A') = 1-P(A)

5B

Probability
Using Venn Diagrams
A card is selected at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Let A be the event
that the card is an ace, and D be the event that the card is a diamond. Draw a Venn
diagram to show this information.
1)

Always fill in the middle first. The

middle represents an ace and a
diamond.
1 card

2) There are 4 aces in total, one of

which has already been filled in
3 cards extra in A

S
A

D
3

12

3) There are 13 diamonds, one of which

has been filled in
12 extra cards in D
4) 52 cards in total, subtract the 16
that have been used

36

36 cards left outside the circles

5B

Probability
Using Venn Diagrams
A card is selected at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Let A be the event
that the card is an ace, and D be the event that the card is a diamond. Draw a Venn
diagram to show this information.

P(A D) = 1

52

Probability of an Ace and a Diamond

P(A D) = 16

4
13

52

Probability of an Ace or a Diamond

P(A') = 48

12
13

52

Probability of it not being an Ace

P(A' D) =

12
52

3
13

D
3

12

36

Probability of it not being an Ace, and being a Diamond

5B

Probability
Using Venn Diagrams
In a class of 30 students, 7 are in the choir, 5 are in the school band and 2 are in
both the choir and the band. Draw a Venn diagram to show this information.
1)

Always fill in the middle first. The

middle represents choir and band.

2 students
2) There are 5 students in the band, in
total. 2 are already on the diagram.
3 students extra in B
3) There are 7 students in the choir, 2
of which are already on the diagram.

C
3

5 more students in C
4) 30 students in total, 10 already
filled in.

20

20 students outside the circles

5B

Probability
Using Venn Diagrams
In a class of 30 students, 7 are in the choir, 5 are in the school band and 2 are in
both the choir and the band. Draw a Venn diagram to show this information.
Probability of not being in the band

P(B') = 1 - P(B)
B

5
P(B') = 1 30
25
P(B') =
30

C
3

5
6

You could also have got

20
25

/30 by counting the parts not in the B circle.

5B

Probability
Using Venn Diagrams
A vet surveys 100 clients. She finds out the following:
25 have dogs
53 have cats
40 have fish
15 have dogs and cats 10 have cats and fish 11 have dogs and fish
7 have dogs, cats and fish
1)

Always fill in the middle first. The

middle represents all 3 pets

2) Then fill in the parts where 2

circles overlap. Remember to take
away the middle from each.
3) After this you can fill in the rest,
based on what you have already
completed
4) Remember to work out how many
people have no pets (add up the
numbers in the circle, and subtract
from 100)

C
6

8
4

35
3

26
F

11
5B

Probability
Using Venn Diagrams
A vet surveys 100 clients. She finds out the following:
25 have dogs
53 have cats
40 have fish
15 have dogs and cats 10 have cats and fish 11 have dogs and fish
7 have dogs, cats and fish

P(Dog

only) = 6
100

3
50

P(Doesn't own Fish) = 60

100

P(None of these) = 11

100

C
6

3
5

8
4

35
3

26
F

11
5B

Teachings for Exercise 5C

Probability
Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Addition Rule
If P(A) = a and P(B) = b

And we let the intersection P(A B) = i

Then we can label a Venn diagram as
follows:
The intersection i

B
a-i

b-i

The rest of A a i
The rest of B b i
The Area in the circles

1 (a + b i)

(a i) + i + (b i)
a+bi
So the remainder will be 1 (a + b i)

5C

Probability
Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Addition Rule
If P(A) = a and P(B) = b

And we let the intersection P(A B) = i

The Probability of A or B is the whole
of the area inside the circles
P(A or B) = (a i) + (b i) + i

B
a-i

b-i

P(A or B) = a i + b i + i
P(A or B) = a + b - i

P(A or B) =

1 (a + b i)
+

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

Rearranged you can also

get this formula

5C

Probability
Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Addition Rule
A and B are two events such that P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.7 and P(A or B) =
0.9.
Calculate: a) P(A B)
b)
P(A')
c)
P(A' B)
A
B
d)
P(A' B)
a) P(A B) =

P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

0.2

0.4

P(A B) = 0.6 + 0.7 - 0.9

P(A B) = 0.4

0.3

0.1

Now you know the intersection, you can draw a Venn diagram!
5C

Probability
Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Addition Rule
A and B are two events such that P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.7 and P(A or B) =
0.9.
Calculate: b) P(A')
P(A' B)
c)
d)
P(A' B)
A
B
b)
P(A') = 0.4
0.2
0.4
0.3

Probability of not A

c)

P(A' B) = 0.8

0.1

Probability of not A, or B

d)

P(A' B) = 0.3
Probability of not A, and B

5C

Teachings for Exercise 5D

Probability
Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Multiplication Rule
Conditional Probability is where the probability of an event is affected
by whether another event has already occurred or not.
For example, the probability of choosing an ace from a pack of cards
will be affected if a random card has been removed
We have learnt the addition rule, and now we will learn the
multiplication rule
The multiplication rule will allow us to solve problems involving
conditional probability

5D

Probability
Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Multiplication Rule
Two fair spinners are both numbered 1-4. They are thrown together and the sum
recorded. Given that at least one spinner lands on a 3, find the probability of the
spinners indicating a sum of 5.
Using the sample space:

Spinner 2

We only consider the results that

have a 3 as one of the numbers
(there are 7 possibilities here)
Out of these, 2 have a sum of 5

2
3
Spinner 1

So P(sum of 5 | at least one 3)

2/7

5D

Probability
Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Multiplication Rule

We are going to work out the formula for the probability of event B, given that
event A has happened.
We are saying that A has
happened, and so are only
including the A area

A
a-i

As A has happened, the A

area represents all the
possibilities

So the probability B happens, given A has:

P( B | A)

i
a i i

P( B A)
P( A)
The vertical line
means given

i
a

b-i

i is the part of the

circle where B has
happened

5D

Probability
Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Multiplication Rule

We are going to work out the formula for the probability of event B, given that
event A has happened.

P ( B A)
P ( B | A)
P ( A)

B
a-i

b-i

Re-arranging, we
get

P( B A) P ( B | A) P ( A)
OR

P( A B) P( A | B) P( B)
5D

P ( B | A)

Probability

P ( B A)
P( A)

P ( B A) P ( B | A) P ( A)

Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Multiplication Rule

C and D are two events such that P(C) = 0.2, P(D) = 0.6 and P(C|D) = 0.3.
Find: a) P(D |b)
C)

c)

P(C' D')

We will construct a Venn Diagram to

help
We need the probability of the
intersection:

P(C' D)

P(D) = 0.6, so
subtract 0.18

D
0.02

0.18

0.42

P(C D) P(C | D) P ( D)
P (C D ) 0.3 0.6
P(C D) 0.18

0.38
P(C) = 0.2, so
subtract 0.18

The probabilities
must add up to 1

5D

P ( B | A)

Probability

P ( B A)
P( A)

P ( B A) P ( B | A) P ( A)

Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Multiplication Rule

C and D are two events such that P(C) = 0.2, P(D) = 0.6 and P(C|D) = 0.3.
Find: a) P(D |b)
C)

a)

P(D | C) =

c)

P(D C)
P(C )

0.18
P(D | C) =
0.2

P(C' D')

P(C' D)

D
0.02

0.18

0.42

0.38

P(D | C) = 0.9

5D

P ( B | A)

Probability

P ( B A)
P( A)

P ( B A) P ( B | A) P ( A)

Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Multiplication Rule

C and D are two events such that P(C) = 0.2, P(D) = 0.6 and P(C|D) = 0.3.
Find: a) P(D |b)
C)

c)

P(C' D')

P(C' D)

0.38

0.42

0.9
b) P(C' D') = 0.38
Probability of not C and not D

D
0.02

0.18

0.42

c) P(C' D) = 0.42
Probability of not C and D

0.38

5D

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

Probability

P ( B | A)

P ( B A)
P( A)

P ( B A) P ( B | A) P ( A)

Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Multiplication Rule

Let A and B be events such that P(A) = 3/10, P(B) = 2/5 and P(B A) = 1/2.

P(B | A')
Find: a) P(B | A)
b)
We will construct a Venn Diagram to
help

P(B) = 2/5 in total

2
/5 1/5

We need the probability of the

intersection:

P ( B A) P ( B ) P ( A) P ( B A)
1
10
2 3 1
P ( B A)
Denominators
5 10 2
must be the
same
4 3 5
P ( B A)
10 10 10
P(A) = 3/10 in total
1
3
P( B A)
/10 1/5
5
3
/ 2/
10

10

B
1
5

1
5
1
2
1 - (1/10 + 1/5 + 1/5)
1 - (1/10 + 2/10 + 2/10)
1 - (5/10)

5D

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

Probability

P ( B | A)

P ( B A)
P( A)

P ( B A) P ( B | A) P ( A)

Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Multiplication Rule

Let A and B be events such that P(A) = 3/10, P(B) = 2/5 and P(B A) = 1/2.
Find: a) P(B | A)
b) 2

a)

P(B | A) =

P(B A)
P(A)
1

P(B | A) =

P(B | A) =

3
10

P(B | A')

B
1
10

1
5

1
5
1
2

2
3
5D

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)

Probability

P ( B | A)

P ( B A)
P( A)

P ( B A) P ( B | A) P ( A)

Formulae from the Venn Diagram The Multiplication Rule

Let A and B be events such that P(A) = 3/10, P(B) = 2/5 and P(B A)= 1/2.
Find: a) P(B | A)
b) 2

b)

P(B | A') =

P(B A')
P(A')
1

P(B | A') =

P(B | A')

2
P(B | A') =
7

B
1
10

1
5

1
5

1
2

10
P(A)

= 1 P(A)
= 1 /10
3

P(B A')

5D

Teachings for Exercise 5E

Probability
Tree Diagrams
You will have seen Tree Diagrams at GCSE level, and they can also be used to
represent conditional probabilities.
The number of spectators at an event is dependent on the weather. On a rainy
day, the probability of a big turnout is 0.4. However, if it does not rain, there is
a probability of 0.9 that there will be a big turnout. The weather forecast gives
a 0.75 probability of rain. Show this on a tree diagram.

0.75

0.25

0.4

The rain is the independent event

(ie it affects the probability of
the other), so it comes first.

0.6

P(R) = 0.75

0.9

0.1

P(R) = 0.25
The second set of possibilities are a high
turnout (B), or not (B)
The probabilities are different
depending on whether it rained or not

5E

Probability
Tree Diagrams

0.75

0.25

0.4

0.6

0.9

0.1

P ( B R) 0.3

You can use the Multiplication rule to work out probabilities.

Probability of a big turnout and rain

P( B R) P( B | R) P( R)
P ( B R) 0.4 0.75
P ( B R) 0.3

5E

Probability
Tree Diagrams

0.75

0.25

0.4

P ( B R) 0.3

0.6

P( B ' R) 0.45

0.9

0.1

You can use the Multiplication rule to work out probabilities.

Probability of not a big turnout and rain

P( B ' R ) P ( B ' | R) P( R)
P( B ' R ) 0.6 0.75
P( B ' R ) 0.3

5E

Probability
Tree Diagrams

0.75

0.25

0.4

P ( B R) 0.3

0.6

P( B ' R ) 0.45

0.9

P( B R ') 0.225

0.1

You can use the Multiplication rule to work out probabilities.

Probability of a big turnout and not rain

P ( B R ') P( B | R ') P( R ')

P ( B R ') 0.9 0.25
P ( B R ') 0.225

5E

Probability
Tree Diagrams

0.75

0.25

0.4

P ( B R) 0.3

0.6

P( B ' R ) 0.45

0.3 + 0.45 +
0.225 + 0.025

0.9

P( B R ') 0.225

0.1

P( B R ') 0.025

Checking

You can use the Multiplication rule to work out probabilities.

Probability of not a big turnout and not rain

P ( B ' R ') P( B ' | R ') P ( R ')

P ( B ' R ') 0.1 0.25
P ( B ' R ') 0.225

Basically, remember to
multiply along each
path

5E

Probability
Tree Diagrams

0.75

0.25

0.4

P ( B R) 0.3

0.6

P( B ' R ) 0.45

0.9

P( B R ') 0.225

0.1

P ( B ' R ') 0.025

Calculate the probability of a big turnout.

P( B ) P ( B R ) P ( B R ')
P( B ) 0.3 0.225
P( B ) 0.525

There are 2 ways of

having a big turnout

5E

Probability
Tree Diagrams
A bag contains 7 green beads and 5 blue beads. A bead is taken at random, the
colour recorded and the bead is not replaced. A second is then taken and the
colour recorded. Find P(1 Green and 1 Blue).
One less Green
Blue the same as
to begin with

7
12

5
12

6
11

G1

G2

5
11

B2

7
11

G2

4
11

B2

B1

Green the same

as to begin with

There is the possibility of Green

or Blue both times.
P(G1) = 7/12
P(B1) = 5/12

The second set of possibilities depend on

what colour was taken the first time.
There will be 11 left, and one less of
either Green or Blue.

One less Blue

5E

Probability
Tree Diagrams
A bag contains 7 green beads and 5 blue beads. A bead is taken at random, the
colour recorded and the bead is not replaced. A second is then taken and the
colour recorded. Find P(1 Green and 1 Blue).
6
11
7
12

5
12

G1

As we want one of each, there are

2 possible routes:

G2
7 x 5 = 35
12 11 132

5
11

B2

7
11

G2 5 x 7 = 35

4
11

B2

12 11 132

B1

P (G B )
P (G B )

35 35

132 132

P(G B )

70
132

P(G B )

35
66
5E

Teachings for Exercise 5F

Probability
Mutually Exclusive and Independent Events
When 2 events cannot happen at the same
time, they are Mutually Exclusive.

S
A

P( A B) 0
If we apply this to the Addition Rule:

P ( A B ) P( A) P ( B) P( A B )
P ( A B ) P( A) P ( B)

The Addition Rule for Mutually

exclusive Events

You can also work backwards. If the above is

true then the events are Mutually Exclusive.

5F

Probability
Mutually Exclusive and Independent Events
When one event has no effect on another, they are said to be independent.
So the Probability of A, given B, is just the same as the probability of A on its
own.

P ( A | B) P( A)
Applying this to the Multiplication Rule.

P( A B ) P( A | B ) P( B)
P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B)
The Multiplication Rule for
Independent Events
Again, you can work backwards. If you put the numbers you are given into the
above formula, and it works, then the events are independent.

5F

Probability
Mutually Exclusive and Independent Events
Events A and B are Mutually Exclusive and
P(A) = 0.2 and P(B) = 0.4
Calculate:
a) P ( A B )

P ( A) P ( B )
0.2 0.4
0.6

Construct a
Venn Diagram

S
A

B
0.2

0.4

b) P ( A B ') P ( A)

0.2

c) P ( A ' B ') 1 P ( A B )

0.4
Mutually Exclusive, so the
circles are separate

1 0.6
0.4

5F

Probability
Mutually Exclusive and Independent Events
Events C and D are Independent and P(C) = 1/3
and P(D) = 1/5
Calculate:
a) P (C D )

P (C ) P ( D)
1 1
1

3 5
15

b) P (C D ')

Construct a
Venn Diagram

S
C

D
/15

4
15

c) P (C ' D ')

8
15

/15

/15

/15

P(C) = 1/3 in total so:

1 1
3 15
5
1

15 15

P(D) = 1/3 in total so:

1 1
5 15
3
1

15 15

5F

Summary
We have now finished all the topics for Probability
You must remember both the Addition Rule and the
Multiplication Rule. If you arent sure, think what am
I trying to find out?
The best way to solve a problem is to draw a diagram
to help, when you have enough information to do so
You also need to remember how the rules vary for
Mutually Exclusive and Independent Events