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Question!!!!!!
Assume now you are having some
problems.
What will you do to solve your problem?
Any specific method/steps?
Are try to get the optimum solution ?
Example of a Decision-Making
Process
Classification of Decision
Structures
makes decisions.
The effect of a particular style depends
on problem context, perceptions of the
decision maker, and his own set of
values.
The complexity of these intertwine in the
formation of decision style. The basic
classes of styles are illustrated on the
next slide.
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2.
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2.
Continuum/Range of Decision
Structures
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Typology of Decisions
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2.
3.
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Simulation
Forecasting
What if analysis
Markov analysis
Complex queuing
methods
Environmental impact
analysis
Linear programming
Goal programming
Simple queuing models
Investment models
Inventory models
Transportation models
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Optimizing strategies
search here
Satisficing strategies
search here
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Perception
This is a special type of cognitive limitation.
Common perception blocks are:
Judgment
Although numerous strategies exist for
2-12:
Biases and Heuristics In Decision Making
We all have rules of thumb that we rely
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Traveling
Salesman
Problem
Cities to
Visit
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Heuristic Bias
Sometimes the use of heuristics can hamper
finding a solution. The four major categories
of bias are:
1. Availability people tend to estimate
probability based on past experience, which
may not be representative.
2. Adjustment and anchoring people often pick
a starting value and then adjust up and down
from it. They tend to underestimate the need
for adjustments.
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References
http://www.computerworld.com/softwaretopics/software/apps/story/0,10801,72327,00.html
DSS emerged from a data processing world of routine static reports, according to Clyde
Holsapple, professor in the decision science department of the College of Business and
Economics at the University of Kentucky in Lexington. "Decision-makers can't wait a week or a
month for a report," he says.
DSS journal
http://www1.elsevier.com/homepage/sae/orms/dss/menu.htm
Example of DSS http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/rdwx_mdss/mdss_description.html
http://ag.arizona.edu/AREC/cull/culling.html
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Preparation
Record
Stop
Play
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