Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Chapter
Twenty
McGraw-
20- 2
Chapter Twenty
An Introduction to Decision
GOALS
Theory
When you have completed this chapter, you
will
ONE be able to:
Define the terms: state of nature, event, act, and payoff.
TWO
Organize information into a payoff table or a decision tree.
THREE
Find the expected payoff of a decision alternative.
FOUR
Compute opportunity loss and expected opportunity loss.
FIVE
Assess the expected value of information.
Goals
20- 3
Classical Statistics
focuses on estimating a
parameter, such as the
population mean,
constructing confidence
intervals, or hypothesis
testing.
Statistical
Decision Theory
(Bayesian statistics) is
concerned with
determining which
decision, from a set of
possible decisions, is
optimal.
20- 4
acts)
20- 5
20- 6
Let
Let
EMV ( Ai ) [ P( S j ) V ( Ai , S j )]
Calculating the EMV
20- 7
Example 1
EMV (A1)=(.5)(50)+(.3)(70)+(.2)(100)=66
EMV (A2) =(.5)(40)+(.3)(80)+(.2)(90)=62
EMV (A3) =(.5)(90)+(.3)(70)+(.2)(60)=78
Choose alternative
A3 because it gives
the largest expected
monetary value or
expected payoff.
20- 8
What
decision
would you
recommend
?
Example 1 continued
20- 9
20- 10
Example 1 continued
20- 11
Let
Let
Let
Let
EOL(Ai) = [P(Sj)*R(Ai,Sj)]
Expected Opportunity Loss
20- 12
EOL(A1) =(.5)(40)+(.3)(10)+(.2)(0)=23
EOL(A2) =(.5)(50)+(.3)(0)+(.2)(10)=27
EOL(A3) =(.5)(0)+(.3)(10)+(.2)(40)=11
What decision
would you make
based on the
lowest expected
opportunity
loss?
Example 1 continued
20- 13
Maximin Strategy
Maximax Strategy
maximizes the maximum
gain (optimistic strategy)
20- 14
EXAMPLE 1 continued
20- 15
20- 16
Sensitivity
Analysis
examines the effects
of various
probabilities for the
states of nature on
the expected values
for the decision
alternatives.
Decision Trees
are useful for
structuring the various
alternatives. They
present a picture of the
various courses of
action and the possible
states of nature.
$ 2 ,4 0 0
20- 17
$ 1 ,8 4 0
B u y R im
$ 1 ,7 6 0
$ 1 ,0 0 0
$ 2 ,2 0 0
$ 1 ,1 0 0
$ 1 ,6 0 0
$ 1 ,9 0 0
$ 1 ,1 5 0
Example 2
20- 18
E x p e c te d V a lu e u n d e r C o n d itio n s o f C e r ta in ty
$ 2 ,4 0 0
$ 2 ,4 0 0
B u y R im
$ 2 ,2 0 0
$ 1 ,9 0 0
$ 1 ,0 0 0
B u y R im
$ 1 ,1 0 0
$ 1 ,1 5 0
$ 1 ,1 5 0
Example 2 continued