Prinsip dasar analisis investasi

Mine Planning & Investment Analysis

Time Value of Money
Discount Rate
Interest

Mine Planning Process (1)

Technical Component
- Mine layout, equipment productivity,
production schedules etc.

Narrow Economic Component

- Applies operating & capital cost
- Schedules & alternative equipment in
economic terms e.g. price per ton

Broadly Economic Component

- Include financial & business strategy
- Examine risk of the project

Mine Planning Process (2)

Once a potential mining development has been
identified,
How does technical evaluation proceed
accounting for the Economic of information &
the economic of mining
Mining Economic

Mine Planning is an iterative one

The mining cost for any one type of mine
design is derived from a previous

Mine Planning Process (3)

Economic decisions in mine planning

Mine Planning Process (4)

Strategic issues in mine development

Mine Planning Process (5)

Time value of money (1)

Nilai
uang
(purchasing
power)
bersamaan dengan perubahan waktu

berubah

Konsep jumlah uang

Merupakan konsep besaran matematis biasa
dimana hasilnya tidak tergantung waktu.
Rp.10.000 (1988) = Rp.10.000 (1998)

Konsep nilai uang

Jumlah uang yang berbeda waktunya
dijumlahkan akan menghasilkan jumlah yang
berbeda.
Rp.10.000 (1988) Rp.10.000 (1998)

Time value of money (2)

Besarnya nilai uang bergantung pada :

Discount rate (i)
Rp 100.000

(t=0)

Jumlah tahun

= 100.000

(t=1)

+ (i x Rp 100.000)

Time value of money (3)

For a discount rate of 0, achieving 90% of the

total present values requires 27 years

For a discount rate of 25%, 90% of total

present value is achieved in the first years of
the project.

Means that for a discount rate of 25%, the last

20 years of the 30 years have no worth from a
present value perspective

Time value of money (4)

Pengertian time value of money penting dalam
analisis ekonomi tambang karena berhadapan
dengan sumber daya yang tidak terbarui.

Time value of money (5)

Karena ketergantungan akan waktu maka cash

flow C tidak dapat dioptimasi jika terisolasi dari
keseluruhan deposit

Jika laju ekstraksi pada minimum cost, cash

flow C tidak akan optimal tetapi jika laju
ekstraksi pada saat MC = price, cash flow C
dapat dimaksimalkan dan waktu ekstraksi akan
berkurang.

Time value of money (6)

V = V (T,R,)
V
R

= Present Value
= Available reserve at time T
= Strategy (rate of mining) that drfines the
setting of the variable affecting V

Time value of money (7)

Hotellings rule (1931)

For the fundamental principle of the economic

of exhaustible resource use.

Resources shall be depleted in such a way that

the rate of the growth of value of the extracted
resource should equal the discount rate r

Discount Rate (1)

Analisis Discounted Cash Flow menghadapi

masalah penentuan nilai discount rate yang
sesuai

Penentuan actual discount rate terlalu kompleks

Ada beragam discount rate

Discount Rate (2)

Type of Rate

Description

Opportunity cost of capital

Foregone benefits that would have been received from

the next best investment opportunity

Risk-free alternative

Return from a risk-free instrument, such as U.S.

Treasury bill. Note that even these instruments are not
entirely risk-free because of risks related to the exchange
rate and rate of inflation.

Cost of debt

A rate based on the cost of borrowed funds

Weighted average cost of

capital (WACC)

A risk-adjusted rate that weighs a firms cost of equality

and the cost of debt by the debt-to-equality ratio

Historical rate of return

A rate of return based on constant or current performance

of past investments

Risk-adjusted rate of return

Any rate based on a constant or current return adjusted

for project risk. The capital asset pricing method
(CAPM) is often used to determine such a rate.

Discount Rate (3)

Type of Rate

Description

Hurdle rate

Any specified minimum rate of return, regardless of how

derived

Social rate of return

A rate used to determine the value of social projects. This

rate accounts for issues of equity and morality as well as
financial aspects of an investment

Varying discount rate over

time

A rate that reflects changes in risk overtime. For

example. The risks can change once all capital has been
recovered and minimum rate of return achieved

Varying discount rate by

cash flow line item

A rate that reflects the difference in risk among various

cash flow components. For example, working capital and
inventory charges have lower risks than capital charges
for new tecnologies

Interest (1)
Definisi interest dalam terminologi ilmu ekonomi

Biaya tambahan yang dikenakan atas sejumlah

uang yang dipinjamkan

Biaya sewa untuk peminjaman uang dalam

periode waktu tertentu
interest dinyatakan dalam persentase dengan
basis perhitungan umumnya dalam tahun

Interest (2)
Faktor faktor mempengaruhi interest

Resiko

Inflasi

Biaya transaksi

Biaya peluang

Penangguhan kesenangan

Interest (3)
terdapat dua jenis interest

Simple Interest
Bs = P x i

Compound Interest
Bc = { P (1+i)r } P
Pn = P (1+i)r
keterangan :
i = interest rate (%)
P = uang di awal tahun (principal)
Pn = uang di tahun ke-n
r = tahun

Perhitungan Interest
Investor meminjam uang sebesar Rp 1.000.000
kepada bank, uang tersebut harus dikembalikan
kepada bank dalam jangka 2 tahun dengan
interest rate/tahun sebesar 6%.
Hitung total yang harus dibayarkan dengan
menggunakan simple interest dan compound
interest.

Perhitungan Simple Interest

P = 1000

T1 = 1000 + 60 = 1060
B1 = 1000 * 6% = 60
P = 1000

Tahun 0

Keterangan :
P = Pinjaman awal
B = Bunga pinjaman
T = Total Pinjaman
i = interest rate = 6%

Tahun 1

T2 = 1060 + 60 = 1120
B2 = 1000 * 6% = 60
P = 1000

Tahun 2

Satuan dalam ribuan

Perhitungan Compound Interest (1)

P = 1000

T1 = 1000 + 60 = 1060
B1 = 1000 * 6% = 60
P = 1000

Tahun 0

Keterangan :
P = Pinjaman awal
B = Bunga pinjaman
T = Total Pinjaman
i = interest rate = 6%

Tahun 1

T2 = 1060 + 63.6 = 1123.6

B2 = 1060 * 6% = 63.6
P = 1000

Tahun 2

Satuan dalam ribuan

Perhitungan Compound Interest (2)

P = 1000

T1 = 1000 (1+6%)1 = 1060

P = 1000

Tahun 0

Keterangan :
P = Pinjaman awal
B = Bunga pinjaman
T = Total Pinjaman
i = interest rate = 6%

Tahun 1

T2 = 1000 (1+6%)2 = 1123.6

P = 1000

Tahun 2

Satuan dalam ribuan

Interest rate nominal dan efektif (1)

Effective interest rate dinyatakan dalam basis per

tahun

r
m r
m

Nominal interest rate dinyatakan dengan r

r
1
m

Interest rate nominal dan efektif (2)

Nasabah mendapat kredit usaha sebesar Rp 25

Juta dengan nominal interest rate ditetapkan
18%/tahun. Kredit harus dicicil tiap bulan
dengan perhitungan bunga 1,5%/bulan.
Hitung bunga efektif yang dibayar oleh nasabah
tersebut.

Interest rate nominal dan efektif (3)

r
m

Tingkat bunga efektif

= 18 % per tahun
= 12 kali per tahun

ieff

1
m

1
m

ieff
ieff

18%

1
1
12

19,56 % per tahun

Variabel Dasar Investasi

F = nilai uang pada masa depan.
P = nilai uang saat ini.
A = pembayaran dalam satu seri n pembayaran
yang sama,
i = tingkat bunga efektif per periode waktu
n = periode penelaahannya (periode waktu)

Rumus-rumus interest
Mencari

Diberika
n

Persamaan

Nama faktor

Cash flows tunggal :

(1+i)n
1
(1 i ) n

Single payment
com-pound amound
Single payment
present worth

Simbol
faktor
fungsional

(F/P

i%,n

(P/F

i%,n

(F/A

i%,n

(P/A

i%,n

Sinking fund

(A/F

i%,n

Capital recovery

(A/P

i%,n

Uniform series (annuities) :

F

(1 i ) n 1
i

(1 i ) n 1
n
i (1 i )
i
(1 i ) n 1
i (1 i ) n
(1 i ) n 1

Uniform series compound amount

Uniform series
present worth

)
)

)
)

Tabel interest
Single Payment Compound Amount
Year

Interest

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

1.100

1.110

1.120

1.130

1.140

1.150

1.210

1.232

1.254

1.277

1.300

1.323

1.331

1.368

1.405

1.443

1.482

1.521

1.464

1.518

1.574

1.630

1.689

1.749

1.611

1.685

1.762

1.842

1.925

2.011

1.772

1.870

1.974

2.082

2.195

2.313

1.949

2.076

2.211

2.353

2.502

2.660

2.144

2.305

2.476

2.658

2.853

3.059

2.358

2.558

2.773

3.004

3.252

3.518

10

2.594

2.839

3.106

3.395

3.707

4.046

Konvensi Diagram Alir Kas (1)

Garis horisontal disebut skala waktu, dengan kemajuan

waktu bergerak dari kiri ke kanan.

Tanda anak panah menandakan aliran kas dan ditempatkan

pada akhir suatu periode. Anak panah ke atas ( )
menggambarkan aliran kas positif/penerimaan,anak panah
ke bawah ( ) menggambarkan aliran kas
negatif/pengeluaran.

Diagram aliran kas tergantung dari sudut pandang pihak

yang menilai. Diagram aliran kas dari sudut pandang pihak
pemberi pinjaman akan berbalikan dengan dari sudut
pandang peminjam.

Aliran kas merupakan penjumlahan aliran kas masuk (+)

dan aliran kas keluar (-) pada perioda yang sama (per
tahun).

Konvensi Diagram Alir Kas (2)

Gambar diagram alir kas untuk 5 tahun. jika pada tahun
0 dikeluarkan uang Rp.1000. setiap tahun mendapatkan
uang Rp.100 dan diakhir masa proyek didapat uang
Rp.500

0
1000

100

100

100

100

500
100

Single Payment Compound Amount Factor (1)

Perhitungan untuk mendapatkan F berdasarkan

P,
n periode di masa depan dengan interest
rate i per perioda
P

P (1+i)

P
(1+i)2
2

P
(1+i)n=F
3......
.

Single Payment Compound Amount Factor (2)

Hitung nilai F 3 tahun kedepan dengan P =

Rp.1.000.000 dan i = 12% /tahun
F = P (F/P 12%,3)
= 1.000.000 (1+12%)3
= 1.000.000 (1.12)3
= 1.000.000 (1.405)
= 1.405.000

P = 1.000.000

Tahun 0

F = 1.405.000

Tahun 1

Tahun 2

Tahun 3

Single Payment Compound Amount Factor (3)

Company has to pay a reclamation bond to the

government for each hectare of land disturbed. The
funds are in trust, earning interest at 6% compounded
annually, until reclamation is complete, whereupon
they are returned. If you disturb 40 hectares of land
this year and the bond is $50,000 per hectare, how
much do you expect to get back when reclamation is
completed in 3 years time?
Answer:
Present value (of money paid out now) $50,000 x 40
= $2,000,000
Compound factor
(1 + 0.06)3 = 1.191
Future value
$2,382,000

Single Payment Present Worth Factor (1)

Perhitungan untuk mendapatkan P berdasarkan F,
n periode di masa depan dengan interest rate i
per perioda
F

P=?

3......
.

Single Payment Present Worth Factor (2)

Hitung nilai P dari nilai F dalam jangka waktu 3

tahun sebesar Rp.1.000.000 dan i = 12% /tahun
P = F (P/F 12%,3)

P = 712.000

Tahun 0

=
=
=
=

1.000.000 {1/(1+12%)3}
1.000.000 {1/1.123}
1.000.000 (0.712)
712.000

Tahun 1

Tahun 2

F = 1.000.000

Tahun 3

Single Payment Present Worth Factor (3)

You have received bids from two manufacturers for

purchase of a new dragline. The first bid is very
competitive but is from a company that requires
payment in full on placement of an order. The
second bid is for a higher price, but no payment is
required until the machine starts digging 3 years
hence. Which is the preferred option? If the first
dragline is purchased, what is the effective return on
investment for the 3 years?

Dragline A bid price (today)

$30,000,000
Dragline B bid price (in 3 years time)
$40,000,000
Required return on capital (discount rate i)
15%
Taxation
Ignore
Time (n)
3 years

Single Payment Present Worth Factor (4)

Answer:
Present value of purchasing dragline B 3 years
$40,000,000 X 0.6575 = $26,300,000

Thus, dragline B has a lower cost than dragline A in

present value terms.

Compound factor for investment in dragline A vs

dragline B
$40,000,000/$30,000,000 = 1.3333

Effective return on investment over 3 years

1.3333
i
= 1.33330.3333-1
= 10.06%

(1+i)3 =

Uniform Series Compound Amount Factor (1)

Perhitungan untuk mendapatkan F, n perioda dari
sekarang berdasarkan penjumlahan dari A dengan
interest rate i per perioda

A
0

A
2

F=?

A
3...

Uniform Series Compound Amount Factor (2)

Hitung nilai F dengan A sebesar Rp.1.000.000

selama 3 tahun dengan
i = 12% /tahun
F = A (F/A 12%,3)
(112 %)3 1
12 %

= 1.000.000
= 1.000.000 (3.3744)
= 3.374.400

F = 3.374.400

Tahun 0

A = 1.000.000

A = 1.000.000

A = 1.000.000

Tahun 1

Tahun 2

Tahun 3

Uniform Series Present Worth Factor (1)

Perhitungan untuk mendapatkan P berdasarkan
penjumlahan A selama n perioda dengan interest
rate i per perioda

P=?
0

A
1

A
2

A
3...... n
..

Uniform Series Present Worth Factor (2)

Hitung nilai P dengan A sebesar Rp.1.000.000

selama 3 tahun dengan
i = 12% /tahun
P = A (P/A 12%,3)
(1 12 %)3 1

= 1.000.000 12 % 1 12 %
= 1.000.000 (2.402)
= 2.402.000

P = 2.402.000

A = 1.000.000

A = 1.000.000

A = 1.000.000

Tahun 0

Tahun 1

Tahun 2

Tahun 3

Sinking Fund Factor (1)

Perhitungan untuk mendapatkan A selama n
perioda berdasarkan F dengan interest rate i per
perioda

A
=?
0

A=?

A=?

A=?
F

3 . . . . . . .n
.

Sinking Fund Factor (2)

Hitung tabungan pertahun A selama 3 tahun

untukmendapatkan nilai F = Rp.1.000.000 dengan
i = 12% /tahun
A = F (A/F 12%,3)
12 %
(1 12 %) 3 1

= 1.000.000
= 1.000.000 (0.2963)
= 296.300

Tahun 0

F = 1.000.000

A = 296.300

A = 296.300

A = 296.300

Tahun 1

Tahun 2

Tahun 3

Sinking Fund Factor (3)

A contractor has purchased a new hydraulic

excavator for a 5-year-life job. He expects the
excavator to last 8 years but knows that he will also
have to perform a major overhaul on it costing
$1,000,000 at the end of the 5-year period. The
overhaul cost will be built into the bid price for the
job, with annual payments being placed in a sinking
fund invested at 8% compounded per year. If the
excavator works 3,000 hours per year, how much
should be budgeted (and set aside) per hour to
provide for the major overhaul?

Sinking fund return on funds

8%
Taxation
Ignore for this example
Cost of major overhaul $1,000,000
Time (n)
5 years

Sinking Fund Factor (4)

Answer:
Sinking fund factor
= 0.08/(1.085 1)
= 0.08/0.4693
=0.1705

Equivalent annual amount to set aside

= $1,000,000 x 0.1705
=$170,456/year

Hourly cost
= $170,456/3,000
= $56.82/hour

Capital Recovery Factor (1)

Perhitungan untuk mendapatkan A selama n
perioda berdasarkan P
dengan interest rate i
per perioda
P

A
=?

A=?
2

A=?

A=?

3 . . . . . . .n
.

Capital Recovery Factor (2)

Hitung pendapatan secara seri tiap tahun (A) selama 3

tahun jika P = Rp.1.000.000 dengan i = 12% /tahun
A = P (A/P 12%,3) 12 % 1 12 % 3
= 1.000.000 1 12 % 3 1
= 1.000.000 (0.4163)
= 416.300

P = 1.000.000

A = 416.300

A = 416.300

A = 416.300

Tahun 0

Tahun 1

Tahun 2

Tahun 3

Capital Recovery Factor (3)

The expected life of a rope shovel is 16 years, after

which time the mine will close and the salvage value
will be effectively zero. What is the annual owning
cost, including allowance for return on your capital
invested in the rope shovel? If the shovel works
6,000 hours per year, what is the hourly cost?

Required return on capital (discount rate i) 15%

Taxation
Ignore for this example
Cost of rope shovel $7,000,000
Time (n)
16 years

Capital Recovery Factor (4)

Answer:
Capital recovery factor
= 0.15 /
1 (1 / 1.15) 16
= 0.15 /
1 0.1069
= 0.1679

Equivalent annual cost of shovel over 16 years

= $ 7,000,000 x 0.1679
= $ 1,175,300/year

Hourly cost $1,175,300/6,000

= $ 195.88/hour

Arithmatic Gradien Series (1)

Salah satu situasi yang sering muncul dalam analisis investasi adalah
peningkatan/penurunan pendapatan/ biaya secara gradien selama perioda
analisis. Dalam analisis ekonomi, permasalahan ini disebut dengan
arithmatic gradient series
Untuk memudahkan pemecahan persoalan, arithmatic gradient series
diubah menjadi uniform series compound

1 i n in 1
g

n
i

A = B + g(A/Gi,n) dimana g (A/Gi,n) =

-

B+g

B+
2g

B + (n1)g

3 . . . . . . .n
.

Arithmatic Gradien Series (2)

Sebuah perusahaan pada tahun-1 untung 20 juta.
Keuntungan tersebut tiap tahunnya bertambah 5 juta rupiah
sampai tahun ke-5. Hitung keuntungan rata-rata perusahaan
tersebut tiap tahun jika i=12%.

20
0

25

30

35

40

Arithmatic Gradien Series (3)

Keuntungan rata-rata perusahaan = nilai annual

B = 20 dan g = 5
A = B + g (A/Gi,n)
= 20 + 5 (A/G 12%,5)
5
= 20 + 5 1 0.12 0.12 5 1

0.121 0.12 0.12

5

= 20 + 5 (1.7746)
= 28.873

28.873

28.873

28.873

28.873

28.873

Combining Time Value Functions (1)

50

50

50

25

50

Hitunglah nilai Present Value pada i = i%

Perhitungan PV
= 50 (P/F i,1) + 50 (P/F i,2) + 50 (P/F i,3) + 25
(P/F i,4) + 50 (P/F i,5)
= Tidak efektif

Combining Time Value Functions (2)

50

50

50

50

50

50

Perhitungan PV
= 50 (P/A i,5) 25 (P/F i,4)

25
4

50

50
4
25

50