Slides Prepared by

JOHN S. LOUCKS
St. Edwards University

2002 South-Western/Thomson Learning

Chapter 5
Discrete Probability Distributions

Random Variables
Discrete Probability Distributions
Expected Value and Variance
Binomial Probability Distribution
Poisson Probability Distribution
Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
.40
.30
.20
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Random Variables

A random variable is a numerical description of

the outcome of an experiment.
A random variable can be classified as being
either discrete or continuous depending on the
numerical values it assumes.
A discrete random variable may assume either
a finite number of values or an infinite
sequence of values.
A continuous random variable may assume
any numerical value in an interval or collection
of intervals.

Example: JSL Appliances

Discrete random variable with a finite number

of values
Let x = number of TV sets sold at the store in
one day
where x can take on 5 values (0, 1, 2, 3,
4)

Discrete random variable with an infinite

sequence of values
Let x = number of customers arriving in one
day
where x can take on the values 0, 1, 2, .
..
We can count the customers arriving, but there
4
is no finite upper limit on the number that

Discrete Probability Distributions

The probability distribution for a random

variable describes how probabilities are
distributed over the values of the random
variable.
The probability distribution is defined by a
probability function, denoted by f(x), which
provides the probability for each value of the
random variable.
The required conditions for a discrete
probability function are:
f(x) > 0
f(x) = 1
We can describe a discrete probability
distribution with a table, graph, or equation.

Example: JSL Appliances

Using past data on TV sales (below left), a

tabular representation of the probability
distribution for TV sales (below right) was
developed.
Number
Units Sold
of Days
x
0
80
0
.40
1
50
1
.25
2
40
2
.20
3
10
3
.05
4
20
4
.10
200
1.00

f(x)

Example: JSL Appliances

Graphical Representation of the Probability
Distribution
.50
Probability

.40

.30
.20
.10
0

Values of Random Variable x (TV sales)

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Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution

The discrete uniform probability distribution is

the simplest example of a discrete probability
distribution given by a formula.
The discrete uniform probability function is
f(x) = 1/n
where:

n = the number of values the random

variable may assume
Note that the values of the random variable
are equally likely.

Expected Value and Variance

The expected value, or mean, of a random

variable is a measure of its central location.
Expected value of a discrete random
variable:
E(x) = = xf(x)

The variance summarizes the variability in the

values of a random variable.
Variance of a discrete random variable:
Var(x) = 2 = (x - )2f(x)

The standard deviation, , is defined as the

positive square root of the variance.
9

Example: JSL Appliances

Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable

x
0
1
2
3
4

f(x) xf(x)
.40
.00
.25
.25
.20
.40
.05
.15
.10
.40
E(x) = 1.20

The expected number of TV sets sold in a day

is 1.2

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Example: JSL Appliances

Variance and Standard Deviation

of a Discrete Random Variable
x x-
0 -1.2
1 -0.2
2 0.8
3 1.8
4 2.8

(x - )2

f(x)

(x - )2f(x)

1.44 .40
0.04 .25
0.64 .20
3.24 .05
7.84 .10
1.660 =

.576
.010
.128
.162
.784

The variance of daily sales is 1.66 TV sets

squared.
The standard deviation of sales is 1.2884 TV
11
sets.

Binomial Probability Distribution

Properties of a Binomial Experiment

The experiment consists of a sequence of n
identical trials.
Two outcomes, success and failure, are
possible on each trial.
The probability of a success, denoted by p,
does not change from trial to trial.
The trials are independent.

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Example: Evans Electronics

Binomial Probability Distribution

Evans is concerned about a low retention
rate for employees. On the basis of past
experience, management has seen a turnover
of 10% of the hourly employees annually.
Thus, for any hourly employees chosen at
random, management estimates a probability
of 0.1 that the person will not be with the
company next year.
Choosing 3 hourly employees a random,
what is the probability that 1 of them will leave
the company this year?
Let:
p = .10, n = 3, x = 1
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Binomial Probability Distribution

Binomial Probability Function

n!
f ( x)
p x (1 p ) (n x )
x !( n x )!
where:
f(x) = the probability of x successes in n
trials
n = the number of trials
p = the probability of success on any one
trial

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Example: Evans Electronics

Using the Binomial Probability Function

n!
f ( x)
p x (1 p ) ( n x )
x !( n x )!
3!
f (1)
( 0.1)1 ( 0. 9 ) 2
1!( 3 1)!
= (3)(0.1)(0.81)
= .243

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Example: Evans Electronics

n
3

Using the Tables of Binomial Probabilities

x
0
1
2
3

.10
.7290
.2430
.0270
.0010

.15
.6141
.3251
.0574
.0034

.20
.5120
.3840
.0960
.0080

.25
.4219
.4219
.1406
.0156

p
.30
.3430
.4410
.1890
.0270

.35
.2746
.4436
.2389
.0429

.40
.2160
.4320
.2880
.0640

.45
.1664
.4084
.3341
.0911

.50
.1250
.3750
.3750
.1250

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Example: Evans Electronics

Using a Tree Diagram

First
Worker

Second
Worker
Leaves (.1)

Leaves (.1)

Third
Worker
L (.1)
S (.9)
L (.1)

.0090

.0090

S (.9)
L (.1)

.0810

.0090

S (.9)

.0810

L (.1)

.0810

S (.9)

.7290

Stays (.9)

Leaves (.1)
Stays (.9)
Stays (.9)

Value
of x Probab.
.0010
3

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Binomial Probability Distribution

Expected Value
E(x) = = np

Variance
Var(x) = 2 = np(1 - p)

Standard Deviation
SD( x ) np (1 p )

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Example: Evans Electronics

Binomial Probability Distribution

Expected Value
E(x) = = 3(.1) = .3 employees out of
3
Variance
Var(x) = 2 = 3(.1)(.9) = .27
Standard Deviation
SD( x) 3(.1)(.9) .52 employees

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Poisson Probability Distribution

Properties of a Poisson Experiment

The probability of an occurrence is the same
for any two intervals of equal length.
The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any
interval is independent of the occurrence or
nonoccurrence in any other interval.

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Poisson Probability Distribution

Poisson Probability Function

x e
f ( x)
x!
where:
f(x) = probability of x occurrences in an
interval
= mean number of occurrences in an
interval
e = 2.71828

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Example: Mercy Hospital

Using the Poisson Probability Function

Patients arrive at the emergency room of
Mercy Hospital at the average rate of 6 per
hour on weekend evenings. What is the
probability of 4 arrivals in 30 minutes on a
weekend evening?

= 6/hour
x=4
4 = 3/half-hour,
3
f ( 4)

3 ( 2. 71828)
4!

.1680

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Example: Mercy Hospital

x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Using the Tables of Poisson Probabilities

2.1
.1225
.2572
.2700
.1890
.0992
.0417
.0146
.0044
.0011

2.2
.1108
.2438
.2681
.1966
.1082
.0476
.0174
.0055
.0015

2.3
.1003
.2306
.2652
.2033
.1169
.0538
.0206
.0068
.0019

2.4
2.5
.0907 .0821
.2177 .2052
.2613 .2565
.2090 .2138
.1254 .1336
.0602 ..0668
.0241 .0278
.0083 .0099
.0025 .0031

2.6
.0743
.1931
.2510
.2176
.1414
.0735
.0319
.0118
.0038

2.7
.0672
.1815
.2450
.2205
.1488
.0804
.0362
.0139
.0047

2.8
.0608
.1703
.2384
.2225
.1557
.0872
.0407
.0163
.0057

2.9
.0550
.1596
.2314
.2237
.1622
.0940
.0455
.0188
.0068

3.0
.0498
.1494
.2240
.2240
.1680
.1008
.0504
.0216
.0081

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Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

The hypergeometric distribution is closely

related to the binomial distribution.
With the hypergeometric distribution, the trials
are not independent, and the probability of
success changes from trial to trial.

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Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

Hypergeometric Probability Function

N r

nx

f ( x) for 0 < x < r

N

n
r

x

where:
trials

f(x) = probability of x successes in n

n = number of trials
N = number of elements in the
population
r = number of elements in the
population

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Example: Neveready

Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

Bob Neveready has removed two dead
batteries from a flashlight and inadvertently
mingled them with the two good batteries he
intended as replacements. The four batteries
look identical.
Bob now randomly selects two of the four
batteries. What is the probability he selects
the two good batteries?

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Example: Neveready

Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

f ( x)

r

x

N r

nx
N

n

2 2
2! 2!

2 0
2!0! 0!2!
1

.167
6
4
4!

2
2!2!

where:
x = 2 = number of good batteries selected
n = 2 = number of batteries selected
N = 4 = number of batteries in total
r = 2 = number of good batteries in total

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End of Chapter 5

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