Scribd Logo
Hochladen

Willkommen bei Scribd!

  • FREEMARK ABBEY WINERY Case Study

    Hochgeladen von

    Florentina Andre
    878 Ansichten13 Seiten
    This document presents a decision analysis case study for Freemark Abbey Winery. It includes: - Information on uncertainties like probability of rain and mold formation that Mr. Jaeger must consider in his decisions about harvesting grapes. - Mr. Jaeger's alternatives of when to harvest, whether to use a weather detector, and whether to buy spores to prevent mold. - Decision diagrams and a decision tree showing the possible outcomes and values of Mr. Jaeger's choices under different scenarios. - Analyses of whether it is worthwhile for Mr. Jaeger to delay harvest and buy spores based on the probability of rain, or to use the weather detector based on the probability of spores working

    Originalbeschreibung:

    DECISION MAKING CASE

    Originaltitel

    72317971 Freemark Abbey Winery Case Study

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Verfügbare Formate

    PPT, PDF, TXT oder online auf Scribd lesen

    Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

    Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

    Dieses Dokument melden
    This document presents a decision analysis case study for Freemark Abbey Winery. It includes: - Information on uncertainties like probability of rain and mold formation that Mr. Jaeger must consider in his decisions about harvesting grapes. - Mr. Jaeger's alternatives of when to harvest, whether to use a weather detector, and whether to buy spores to prevent mold. - Decision diagrams and a decision tree showing the possible outcomes and values of Mr. Jaeger's choices under different scenarios. - Analyses of whether it is worthwhile for Mr. Jaeger to delay harvest and buy spores based on the probability of rain, or to use the weather detector based on the probability of spores working

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Als PPT, PDF, TXT herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen
    Markieren Sie unangemessene Inhalte
    878 Ansichten13 Seiten

    FREEMARK ABBEY WINERY Case Study

    Hochgeladen von

    Florentina Andre
    This document presents a decision analysis case study for Freemark Abbey Winery. It includes: - Information on uncertainties like probability of rain and mold formation that Mr. Jaeger must consider in his decisions about harvesting grapes. - Mr. Jaeger's alternatives of when to harvest, whether to use a weather detector, and whether to buy spores to prevent mold. - Decision diagrams and a decision tree showing the possible outcomes and values of Mr. Jaeger's choices under different scenarios. - Analyses of whether it is worthwhile for Mr. Jaeger to delay harvest and buy spores based on the probability of rain, or to use the weather detector based on the probability of spores working

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Als PPT, PDF, TXT herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen
    Markieren Sie unangemessene Inhalte
    von 13

    Decision Analysis Case Study

    FREEMARK ABBEY
    WINERY
    Khurram Masoods section

    HLCC Consulting Inc.


    Julian Hong
    Nicolas Liao
    Alan Chen
    Cheng-Chieh Chao

    Decision Basis

    Information

    Mr. Jaegers Alternatives

    Harvest now or later


    Use detector or not
    Buy spores or not
    Sell in bottle or bulk

    Mr. Jaegers Preferences

    Probability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugar level, wine price,


    reputation value, detector accuracy, spores effectiveness,
    immigration law

    Prefers more money than less


    Cares about reputation

    Uncertainties

    Probability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugar level

    Decision Diagram
    Detector/
    No Detector

    Rain/
    No Rain

    Detector
    Prediction
    Acidity Level
    Harvest/
    Not harvest

    Spores/
    No Spores

    Botrytise/
    Thin wine
    Sugar Level

    Immigration Law
    Passed/Failed

    Bottle/
    Not Bottle
    Value $

    Decision Tree
    Harvest Now

    Immigration Law
    Passed
    Rain

    Immigration Law
    Failed
    Immigration Law
    Passed

    Buy Spores

    No Rain
    Immigration Law
    Failed

    Mold Develops
    Mold Develops
    Low
    Acidity
    >= 25%
    Normal
    Sugar
    Acidity
    < 25%
    Sugar
    Low
    Acidity
    >= 25%
    Sugar
    < 25%
    Sugar
    Mold Develops
    Sell Wine In Bulk
    No Mold
    Sell Wine Case
    Mold Develops
    Sell Wine In Bulk
    No Mold
    Sell Wine Case
    Low
    Acidity
    >= 25%
    Normal
    Sugar
    Acidity
    < 25%
    Sugar
    Low
    Acidity
    >= 25%
    Normal
    Sugar
    Acidity
    < 25%
    Sugar
    Normal
    Acidity

    Do Not Rent
    Weather Detector
    Immigration Law
    Passed

    Harvest Later
    Rain

    Immigration Law
    Failed

    Do Not
    Buy Spores

    Immigration Law
    Passed
    No Rain
    Immigration Law
    Failed

    Harvest Now
    Immigration Law
    Passed
    Rain

    Immigration Law
    Passed

    Buy Spores
    Says
    Rain

    Immigration Law
    Failed

    Mold Develops
    Mold Develops
    Low
    Acidity
    Normal
    Acidity

    No Rain
    Immigration Law
    Failed

    Low
    Acidity

    >= 25%
    Sugar
    < 25%
    Sugar

    >= 25%
    Sugar
    < 25%
    Sugar
    Mold Develops
    Sell Wine In Bulk
    No Mold
    Sell Wine Case
    Mold Develops
    Sell Wine In Bulk
    No Mold
    Sell Wine Case
    Low
    Acidity
    >= 25%
    Normal
    Sugar
    Acidity
    < 25%
    Sugar
    Low
    Normal
    Acidity

    Rent
    Weather
    Detector
    Immigration Law
    Passed

    Harvest Later
    Rain

    Immigration Law
    Failed

    Do Not
    Buy Spores

    Immigration Law
    Passed
    No Rain
    Immigration Law
    Failed

    Acidity
    Normal
    Acidity

    >= 25%
    Sugar
    < 25%
    Sugar

    Harvest Now

    Immigration Law
    Passed
    Rain

    Immigration Law
    Passed

    Buy Spores
    Says
    No
    Rain

    Immigration Law
    Failed

    Mold Develops
    Mold Develops
    Low
    Acidity
    Normal
    Acidity

    No Rain
    Immigration Law
    Failed

    Low
    Acidity
    Normal
    Acidity

    Immigration Law
    Passed

    Harvest Later
    Rain

    Immigration Law
    Failed

    Do Not
    Buy Spores

    Immigration Law
    Passed

    Immigration Law
    Failed

    < 25%
    Sugar

    >= 25%
    Sugar
    < 25%
    Sugar

    Mold Develops
    Sell Wine In Bulk
    No Mold

    Sell Wine Case

    Mold Develops
    Sell Wine In Bulk
    No Mold
    Low
    Acidity
    Normal
    Acidity

    No Rain

    >= 25%
    Sugar

    Low
    Acidity
    Normal
    Acidity

    Sell Wine Case

    >= 25%
    Sugar
    < 25%
    Sugar
    >= 25%
    Sugar
    < 25%
    Sugar

    Delay the harvest and buy spores, but at


    a probability of rain greater than 45%,
    use the detector

    Use the detector, delay the harvest, but if the


    probability of spores exceeds 85.6%, do not
    buy the spores

    Regardless of the probability of low


    acidity, always use the detector, harvest
    later, and buy spores.

    No turning
    point!

    Regardless of sugar probability,


    always use the detector, delay
    harvest, and buy spores.

    No turning
    point!

    Regardless of immigration probability,


    always use the detector, delay the
    harvest, and buy the spores.

    No turning
    point!

    Value of the superDoppler


    (Perfect Information)

    The value of the detector is


    $6874.64; thus it is worth anything up until
    this point

    Value of Mr. Borzs Spores


    (Control)

    The value of the spores is:


    $22400.93; thus it is worth anything up until
    this point

    Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen