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What Do Interest
Rates Mean and
What Is Their Role
in Valuation?
Chapter Preview
Interest rates are among the most
closely watched variables in the
economy. It is imperative that you
understand exactly what is meant by the
phrase interest rates.
The concept known as yield to maturity
(YTM) is the most accurate measure of
interest rates.
2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved.
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Chapter Preview
Any description of interest rates entails
an understanding certain vernacular and
definitions, most of which will not only
pertain directly to interest rates but will
also be vital to understanding many other
foundational concepts presented later in
the text.
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Chapter Preview
We examine the terminology and calculation of
various rates
Topics include:
Measuring Interest Rates
The Distinction Between Real and Nominal
Interest Rates
The Distinction Between Interest Rates and Returns
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Present Value
Present discounted value is based on the
commonsense notion that a dollar of cash flow paid to
you one year from now is worth less than a dollar paid
to you today.
Why?
Because you could invest the dollar in a savings
account that earns interest and have more than a
dollar in one year.
The term present value (PV) can be extended to mean
the PV of a single cash flow or the sum of a sequence
or group of cash flows.
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$100 $110 1 i
$110 $100 $10
i
.10 10%
$100
$100
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2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved.
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Current Yield
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Two Characteristics
1. Understates yield to maturity; longer the maturity,
greater is understatement
2. Change in discount yield always signals change
in same direction as yield to maturity
2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved.
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Global perspective
In November 1998, rates on Japanese
6-month government bonds were negative!
Investors were willing to pay more than they
would receive in the future.
Why?
negative tbills?
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Quiz
Define the real rate of interest.
Have U.S. short term real interest rates
ever been negative? Why?
Have you ever earned a negative real
return on any of your liquid assets?
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ir=ie
2. Real interest rate more accurately reflects
true cost of borrowing
3. When the real rate is low, there are greater
incentives to borrow and less to lend
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ir 5% 0% 5%
If i 10% and e 20% then
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= capital gains.
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Reinvestment Risk
Occurs if hold series of short bonds over
long holding period
i at which reinvest uncertain
Gain from i , lose when i
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QUIZ
According to Table 3.2, a 10% coupon bond with 10 years to
maturity, will suffer a 40.3% capital loss if interest rates rise from
10% to 20%.
Suppose you purchase a 10 year Zero coupon bond with a 10%
YTM. In other words, you can buy a $1000 face value bond at a
discount so that it provides a 10% YTM.
What would your capital loss be on the Zero-coupon bond if interest
rates (YTM) rise to 20% next year? Why is the capital loss different
than the loss on the 10% coupon bond? HINT: Just use a PV
calculation for $1,000 received 10 years from now and change the
discount rate and # years.
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2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved.
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i 10% to 11%:
Table 3.4, 10% coupon bond
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Duration and
Interest-Rate Risk (cont.)
i 10% to 11%:
20% coupon bond, DUR 5.72 years
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Duration and
Interest-Rate Risk (cont.)
The greater is the duration of a security,
the greater is the percentage change in
the market value of the security for a
given change in interest rates
Therefore, the greater is the duration of a
security, the greater is its interest-rate
risk
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Chapter Summary
Measuring Interest Rates: We examined
several techniques for measuring the
interest rate required on debt
instruments.
The Distinction Between Real and
Nominal Interest Rates: We examined
the meaning of interest in the context of
price inflation.
2012 Pearson Prentice Hall. All rights reserved.
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