ISIS Growing Influence in South Asia and

Regional Implications

Abdul Basit
Associate Research Fellow A(RF)
International Centre for Political Violence and
Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), RSIS
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
18 February 2015

Overview

What is the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS)?

i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.

ISIS Influence in South Asia:

i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
viii.
ix.
x.

Background. .
Militant Islamist Groups Allied with ISIS.
Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks.
No. of Foreign Fighters.
Latest Updates of Foreign Fighters.

Trends in South Asia

Why South Asia?
Three Broad Reactions to ISIS Influence by Islamist Militant Groups.
ISIS Support Base in India.
ISIS Cell in Af-Pak.
ISIS Four-pronged Strategy for South Asia.
Terrorism Consortium in South Asia.
3 Models of Jihad in South Asia.
AQIS vs ISIS.
What does it all mean for South Asia?

Major Questions
Will ISIS pick a bone with Pakistan given the fact that Pakistan is not part of the US-led anti
ISIS coalition?
Is the group or its local affiliates capable of doing it?
What is the magnitude of ISIS footprint in South Asia, in general, and Pakistan in particular?
How the South Asian Islamist Militant Organizations have reacted to ISIS Growing Influence?
What does it all mean for South Asia, in general, and Pakistan in particular?

What is the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham

(Dawlat al-Irq al-Islmiyyah, IS) ?
The most powerful and wealthy Islamist Militant Group.
New-school of Jihadist setting new trends of the modern terrorist iconography.
Post 9/11, the only group to occupy a territory size of a of a state.
Financially self-sufficient
Possesses the largest number of foreign fighters in its rank, including females.
A contestant and claimant to leadership of Global Jihad.

Background

Groups Allied with ISIS

Indonesia

Libya
Ansar Al-Shariah
Islamic Youth Shura Council

Nigeria
Boko Haram

Abu Bakar Bashir

Afghanistan
Salafai Taliban

Pakistan

Islamic
State

Jandullah
Shahidulah Shahid Group
Tehrik-e-Khilafat
Jamia Hafsa Students

Uzbekistan
Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan (IMU)

Egypt
Philippines
Moro Islamic Liberation
Front (MILF)

Gamah Islamiyah
Ansar Bait-ul-Maqdis

Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks

Ponad 15.000 zagranicznych bojownikw z 80 krajw.
Drugie co do wielkoci zgromadzenie zagranicznych bojownikw dihadu w
Afganistanie od czasw
( 1979/88 ) .
Five largest contributors of foreign fighters are; Jordan (2,089), Saudi Arabia
(1,016), Tunisia (970), Lebanon (890), and Libya (556).

The number of fighters from Western Europe is around 1,937, 17 percent of

foreign fighters population.

The most important regions for foreign fighter recruitment outside Western
Europe and the Middle East are the Balkans and the countries of the former
Soviet Union.

Source:
http://soufangroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Foreign-fig
hters-flow-to-Syria.jpg

No. of Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks

Latest Updates of ISIS Foreign Fighters

The daily flow of foreign fighters has gone down from the peak 80-100 per day to a low of 1015.
On 1 December 2014, an Indian foreign fighter, Areeb Majeed, who returned to India revealed
he cleaned toilets for ISIS.
On 18 December 2014, ISIS executed 150 female in Iraqs Fallujah province for refusing to
accept jihad marriage.
(Source:
http://www.teaparty.org/isis-executes-150-women-girls-pregnant-refusing-become-sex-slaves-mar
ry-jihadists-73127/
)
On 20 December 2014, ISIS executed 100 fighters for trying to flee Syria.

I cleaned toilets for ISIS in Iraq.

Source:http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middleeast/2014/12/01/I-cleaned-toilets-for-ISIS-reveals-exfighter.html

Trends in South Asia

The national governments downplay the threat while certain pressure/ groups and
vested interests over-exaggerate the threat.
The trend varies across South Asia countries.
In Afghanistan and Pakistan it is confined to Salafist and Panjpiri pockets of militant
groups.
In India, it is lone-wolf behavior of self-radicalized individuals and group differential
behavior.

Pakistan Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali

Khan rules out the presence of the Islamic
State (IS) in the country.
Source: http://www.dawn.com/news/1143943

In Bangladesh most of the individuals from the Bangladeshi diaspora community

have joined ISIS ranks.

Source:
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014
-10-14/news/55014486_1_jammu-and-kashmirisis-omar-abdullah

No. of Foreign Fighters who Joined ISIS from South Asia

Source: http://www.slideshare.net/RahulBhonsle/estimate-south-asian-fighters-insyria-and-iraq

Why South Asia?

Ideological Factor: (Black Flags of Khurasan)

Social Factor: Conducive environment for incubation of

Extremist Ideologies and Physical (ungoverned spaces) and
Social Sanctuaries (youth vulnerable to extremist propaganda).

Political Factor: Al-Qaedas Power-base.

Three Broad Reactions to ISIS Influence by

Islamist Militant Groups
Open Rejection: ( Al-Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, Kashmir Jihadi
Groups and TTP Core)

Jumping ISIS Bandwagon: (Jandullah, Tehrik-e-Khilafat and

Shahidullah Shahid Group)

Fence-sitting Behaviour: (Hizb-e-Islami Gulbadin and Jamat-ulAhrar etc. )

ISIS Support Base in India

Lone Wolf and self-radicalized individuals: Mahdi Masroor (Social Media Operative) and
Areeb Majeed who went to Iraq and later escaped
No groups-level presence
Ansar al-Tawhid Fi-Bilad Al-Hind has pledged allegiance to ISIS
The activities are restricted to social media activism, flags and pro-ISIS banners
For the first time, Indian Muslims have responded to
an extremist-terrorist organization in such a way
The trends in South, Central and North India are uniform

Im a soldier, I have no regrets

Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Im-a-soldier-Ihave-no-regrets-says-ISIS-Twitter-handler-Mehdi-MasroorBiswas/articleshow/45567376.cms

I cleaned toilets for ISIS in Iraq.

Source:http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middleeast/2014/12/01/I-cleaned-toilets-for-ISIS-reveals-exfighter.html

ISIS Cell in Af-Pak

SAEED KHAN (ORAKZAI)

Khalid
Mansour
(Hangu,
KP)

Dawlat
(Kurram
Agency)
Saad alEmarati
(Saad Abi
Waqas Logar
province,
Afghanistan)

Muhsin
(Kunar
province,
Afghanistan)

Gul
Zamam
(Khyber
Agency)

Omar
Mansour
(Masjid
Ahmar)

Saeed Khan
(Orakzai
Agency)

Mufti
Hassan
(Peshawar)

Obeidaullah
Peshawari
(Tawhid wal
Jihad Peshawar)

Jawad
(AbtalulIslam)

Talha
(Murat)

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_showing_NWFP_and_FATA.

ISIS Four-pronged Strategy in South Asia

Terrorystyczne ,,konsorcjum
w Poudniowej Azji

3-Modele Dihadu w
Poudniowej Azji

ISIS-Kalifat

AQIS vs ISIS

Consolidate existing
network, then expand

Exploit Brand
Expand Network

Contain ISIS
Support Affiliates
Exploit Local Issues

Look for new recruits

& affiliates
Indoctrinate through
Propaganda

What does ISIS threat mean for South Asia?

Polarized and complicated militancy-landscape.

Ideological and operational transformations among the Jihadist groups.
New narratives and deeper penetration of the Salafi Jihadist Ideology.
Cyber radicalization.
Difficulties in Lawn enforcement and security maintenance.

Thank You