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Systems Engineering Program

Department of Engineering Management, Information and Systems

EMIS 7305/5305
Systems Reliability, Supportability and Availability Analysis

Systems Reliability Growth Modeling


and Analysis

Dr. Jerrell T. Stracener, SAE Fellow


Leadership in Engineering
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Reliability Development Test Definitions


MIL-STD-785 Definition
A series of tests conducted to disclose deficiencies
and to verify that corrective actions will prevent
recurrence in the operational inventory (also
known as TAAF testing)
Definition - Narrow View
A reliability development test (RDT) is a dedicated
and specifically designed and conducted test under
usage and maintenance environments that the
equipment is expected to experience during its
service life

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Reliability Development Test Definitions - continued


Definition - General View
A reliability development test is any test where
results are designed to improve equipment
reliability

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Reliability Growth Test Objective and Purpose


Objective - identify reliability problems early
in the development phase and incorporate
corrective action to preclude recurrence during
service usage
Purpose - improve the reliability of production
equipment by identifying and correcting
deficiencies in the design, selection of parts,
and manufacturing processes

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Test, Analyze and Fix (TAAF)


A technique for reliability development and growth that
requires that a series of tests be conducted, problems
identified and analyzed, and corrective actions be taken.
TAAF and other reliability growth techniques require a
closed loop feedback and corrective action system and
follow a common problem solving process:
1. Detect failures
2. Feed back problems to designer
3. Analyze and redesign to correct problem
4. Incorporate redesign into system
5. Verify fix by operating system
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The TAAF Process


Test analyze and fix (TAAF) is a philosophy
that can be applied to any test
- Data for all failures/problems should
be used for TAAF
- This approach decreases the likelihood
of major problems in service
Data from each failure/problem from every
test conducted on an item should be analyzed
for corrective action, positive fix and verification
of the fix

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TAAF Benefits
TAAF provides the means to accelerate design
and reliability maturity through the corrective
actions taken for design performance/reliability
problems identified.
TAAF provides advanced information related
to how the design will work in the field during
the early years of deployment.

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Selection Criteria for RDT


Major contributor to system (end-item) failure rate
New development or application
High unit cost
Experience indicates need for improvement

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Reliability Test Length


Fixed length
- 400 to 10,000 hours (chamber hours)
various tests over past 10 years mostly avionics
and electronics
- Easy to price
- Avoids numbers game of when to stop testing
Truncated
- Stop testing when corrective action rate
reaches a specified level
- Difficult to price
- Analysis of data becomes more important

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Reliability Growth Management


Planning the reliability growth necessary to
meet program objectives as a function of
program schedule
Planning of tasks and program resources
necessary to achieve the planned growth
- Reliability test data
- Failure analysis
- Corrective action
Assessment and forecast of reliability growth
relative to plan
- Provides early warning of program
reliability problem
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Reliability Growth
Reliability growth is the positive improvement
of system reliability through the systematic and
permanent removal of the reasons for failure
Reliability improvements can be achieved
through testing to identify deficiencies and/or
weaknesses, followed by positive actions to
correct them. Test, analyze, and fix (TAAF) is
one process for achieving reliability growth.

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Reliability Growth - continued


Growth curves are management tools; they
show the manager where the system reliability
is now and where is must go
Air Force Regulation 800-18, Air Force reliability
and maintainability program, requires the use of
reliability growth curves to track improvements
to achieve reliability requirements

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Reliability Growth Curves

Decision makers can use reliability growth curves


to assess the need to reallocate resources or
change schedules to achieve R&M requirements

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DOD Policy on Reliability Growth and Testing


DOD 5000.40 requires that a period of testing
be scheduled with each intermediate milestone
for purposes of finding design and manufacturing
defects
AFR 800-18 is intended to implement the
requirements of DOD 5000.40 and implies
reliability growth by such statements as terms
are expressed in mature system values along
with interim thresholds

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DOD Policy on Reliability Growth and Testing

MIL-STD-785 states that a properly balanced


reliability program will emphasize ESS and
RD/GT. It also notes that RD/GT must not
include accept/reject criteria because the
contractors interest in passing a test would be
in conflict with the purpose of doing a RD/GT
MIL-HDBK-781

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Reliability Growth Models


AMSAA/Duane
ARIMA
ARINC
Aroef
Barlow-Scheuer
Cox-Lewis
Endless-Burn-In (EBI)
Exponential single term
Extended Cox-Lewis
General Random Point
Process

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Gompertz
Homogeneous Poisson
process models
IBM
Linear
Lloyd-Lipow
Logistic
Modified Duane
Modified Geometric
Modified Gompertz
Simple exponential

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Reliability Growth Model Types

Engineering
models

Statistical
models

Deterministic Models

Poisson Process
models

Time Series

Endless-Burn-In

AMSAA/Duane
Cox-Lewis
Modified Duane

ARIMA

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The Duane Model


In 1964 J.T Duane, with General Electric Company, published a
paper in the IEEE Transactions on Aerospace (Vol. 2, No. 2, April
1964) titled Learning Curve Approach to Reliability Monitoring.
Duane formulated a mathematical relationship for forecasting and
monitoring reliability improvement as a function of cumulative
time.
The model was based on concluding, from analysis of data, that a
straight line provided a reasonably good fit to cumulative MTBF
vs. cumulative time when plotted on a log-log scale.

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Reliability Growth Analysis


To meet reliability goals, a technique must be
used to track reliability and signal when corrective
action should be taken
J.T. Duane
(1964) noticed
that in many
cases this
relationship
followed a
straight
line on a
log-log plot
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Jet Engine Control System Reliability - Growth

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The Duane Model


The Duane Model can be formulated in two different,
but mathematically equivalent, ways: MTBF as a
Function of time and failure rate as a function of time.
In terms of MTBF, the Duane Model is:

MTBFC t t
where MTBFc(t) is the cumulative MTBF at cumulative
time t, t is cumulative time, and and are
parameters of the model.

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The Duane Model


The parameter is the reliability improvement, or
growth, rate and is cumulative MTBF at t=1 hour.
Notice that the graph of the Duane Model on log-log
scale is a straight line since
log MTBF(t) = log k + log t
which is of the form
y = a + bx

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The Duane Model


Since

t
MTBFC t
rc

where rc=the cumulative number of failures in time t,

t
rc
MTBFC t
t

t
1 1
t

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The Duane Model


Then

drc d ( 1 t1 )
dt
dt
1

(1 - )t

1-

t
1

MTBFi (t)
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But since

t MTBFc (t)

MTBFc (t)
MTBFI (t)
1

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The Duane Model


The instantaneous MTBF as a function of
cumulative test time is obtained mathematically
from MTBFC(t) and is given by

K
MTBFi t
t
1
1

MTBFC (t)
1
where MTBFi(t) is the instantaneous MTBF at time
t and is interpreted as the equipment MTBF if
reliability development testing was terminated after
a cumulative amount of testing time, t.
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MTBF Growth Curves

1000

MTBF

Instantaneous

100

10
10

Cumulative

1000

100

Cumulative Test Hours


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10000

The Duane Model


The Duane Model may also be formulated in
terms of equipment failure rate as a function of
cumulative test time as follows:

C (t) * t -
and

i (t) (1 ) * t -
(1 ) C (t)

where
C(t) is the cumulative failure rate after test time t
k* is the initial failure rate and k*=1/k,
B is the failure rate growth (decrease rate)
i(t) is the instantaneous failure rate at time t
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The Duane Model

The initial MTBF or failure rate at the beginning of


RDT depends on a number of other factors including
type of equipment (electronics, structure, etc.)
complexity of the design and equipment operation,
technology, in terms of MTBF of failure rate,
depends on the same factors as does the starting
value, and this in addition depends on management
FRACAS and TAAF implementation.

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Failure Rate and MTBF

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AMSAA/Duane Model - plotted with group data

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AMSAA/Duane Model - plotting the data and solving for and

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AMSAA/Duane Model - plotting by MTBF

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