Regressions &

Refutations
ON THE LOGIC OF MODEL DISCOVERY

Inspiration. . . .

Proof & Refutations

Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, etc.

Proof & Refutations

V = 8 + 8 = 16

E = 12 + 12 = 24

F = 6 + 6 = 12

V E + F = 16 24 + 12 = 4

(twice Eulers formula)

Proof & Refutations

V=4+2=6

E = 6 + 5 = 11

F=4+4=8

V E + F = 6 11 + 8 = 3

(150% of Eulers formula)

Proof & Refutations

V=4+3=7

E = 6 + 6 = 12

F=4+4=8

V E + F = 7 12 + 8 = 3

(150% of Eulers formula)

Proof & Refutations

With apologies to Imre Lakatos, several noteworthy data sets will be
considered for how they can support a students understanding of
model building (conjectures).

Jacques Charles and Robert Boyles data on the temperature,

pressure, and volume of an ideal gas

Edwin Hubbles data on galaxy velocity and distance

Pavel Yakovlevs and Walter Guessfords data connecting politics

and alcohol consumption

Charless Law, c. 1780s

unit switch. . . .
p. 94

Charless Law, c. 1780s

Superfluidity
Liquid helium at 2 K (and a bit colder)
Appears to drip through a solid beaker
Appears to defy gravity
Beyond ideal gas experience

p. 94

Charless Law, c. 1780s

Negative Kelvin
Nature (Jan. 3, 2013)
Quantum gas goes below absolute zero
Ultracold atoms pave way for negative-Kelvin
materials.
Beyond ideal gas experience

p. 94

Boyles Law on air, 1660

J. B. Conant.Harvard
Case Histories In
ExperimentalScience
, Harvard University
Press. Cambridge,
1957. Vol. 1. p. 53.

Boyles Law on air, 1660

Boyles data, reciprocated

Boyles data

0.09

60

0.08
50
0.07
0.06

40

0.05

Volume (arbitrary units) 30

1/Volume (arbitrary units)

0.04
0.03

20

0.02
10
0.01
0
20

40

60

80

P (in. Hg)

100

120

140

0
20

40

60

80

P (in. Hg)

100

120

140

Boyles Law on air, 1660

Linear regression: 1/V = 0.000135 + 0.000713 P

Boyle: ran model through the origin, P = 0 in. Hg

Pretty close to direct variation

Doesnt seem to consider V = 0 or super cold T, as in Charles

model.

Hubbles data

Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences

Volume 15 : March 15, 1929 :

Number 3

A relation between distance and

radial velocity among extragalactic nebulae

Source of the Hubble Constant,

H0.

(Two uses of H0!)

Hubbles data

For Figure 1 (original)

v = 40.8 + 454 r

H0: 0 = 0
P = 0.630 (P 0.05; or, the
probability of a Type I error is
0.630.)

R-Sq(adj) = 60.6%

v: km/sec. r: megaparsecs

Flip H0 to get seconds, or billion

years

Hubbles data

Usual value today: H0 = 71

or 13.666 billion years

Hubbles data

Such as these data

Slope: 66.64

Intercept non-zero: 375.289

R-sq: 0.5465

This is the kind of correlation

found in the social sciences. It
seems atypical for the hard
sciences.

On the hypothesis H0: 0 = 0, we

have P = 0.0004. The probability
of a Type I error is miniscule. Its
almost certain that the null
hypothesis is false.

Yakovlev & Guessford

Alcohol Consumption and

Political Ideology: Whats Party
Got to Do with It?

Journal of Wine Economics,

Volume 8, Number 3, 2013,
Pages 335354

Data points: all 50 states in the

USA (no possessions, territories,
or districts)

Yakovlev & Guessford

beer (gallons per capita) =

21.818337 + 0.010935631
ideology

R-sq = 0.0018458261

P-value on slope: 0.767

Yakovlev & Guessford

wine (gallons per capita) =

0.35203271 + 0.027994989
ideology

R-sq = 0.23446201

P-value on slope: 0.0004

Yakovlev & Guessford

spirits (gallons per capita) =

1.2578505 + 0.0079617257
ideology

R-sq = 0.03228046

P-value on the slope: 0.2118

Regressions & Refutations

Especially for historical data, show

the real data to our students.

extensions to the models

what happens if the intercept drops

the R-sq

the residuals plots

other diagnostics, etc.

uniformitarian assumptions