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GEOG 102 Population, Resources, and the Environment

Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

Topic 5 Migration and Urbanization


A Migration Issues
B Migration Theory
C Refugees
D Urbanization

Migration Issues
1. Types of Migration
What are the major forms of migration?

2. Selective Migration
Why migration can be considered as a selective process?

3. Brain Drain
What is the extent of movements of skilled labor?

Types of Migration
Emigration and immigration
A Problems or
benefits?

Emigrant

Change in residence.
Relative to origin and destination.

Requires information
People and conditions.
Two different places.
Two different times.

Duration
Immigrant

Problems or
benefits?

Permanent.
Seasonal / Temporary.

Choice / constraint
Improve ones life.
Leave inconvenient / threatening
conditions.

Types of Migration
Gross migration

Immigration
Emigration

Gross migration
Total number of people coming in and
out of an area.
Level of population turnover.

Net Migration
Difference between immigration (inmigration) and emigration (outmigration).
Positive value:
More people coming in.
Population growth.
44% of North America and 88% of
Europe.

Negative value:
More people coming out.
Population decline.
Net migration

Annual Net International Migration by Continent,


1990-95

Net Migration, 2000-05

3,000
Net Migration (1,000s)
NA
Negative net migration
Positive net migration

Types of Migration
International Migration
Emigration is an indicator of economic and/or social failures of a
society.
Crossing of a national boundary.
Easier to control and monitor.
Laws to control / inhibit these movements.
Between 2 million and 3 million people emigrate each year.
Between 1965 and 2000, 175 million people have migrated:
3% of the global population.

Migration Policies and Global Migration Patterns


Period

Policies

Pattern

Before 1914

Open policies (showing up).


Immigration as a source of labor and
development.

From developed (Europe) to developing


countries (Americas, Africa, Australia).
Immigration from Europe between 1880
and 1910 was exceeded 25 million.

1920s and
1930s

Closed door linked with the


economic depression. Deportation of
immigrants.

Limited migration.

After 1945

More open policies. Reconstruction


in Europe (12% of labor force) and
economic growth in America.

Beginning to shift from developing to


developed countries (12%).

After 1973

Relatively open policies, but with


more stringent requirements. Growth
of refugees and illegal immigration.

From developing to developed countries


(88%). 3 million illegal immigrants
entering the US per year.

World Migration Routes Since 1700

European
African (slaves)
Indian
Chinese
Japanese

Majority of population descended from immigrants

Total Slave Population, United States (1790-1860)

Major International Migration Patterns, 1990s

NA
Negative net migration
Positive net migration

International Migration: Main Destination Countries,


1997

Immigration to the United States, 1820-2003


Southeast
Europe

Germany
Scandinavia

British
Isles

Latin America
Asia

Region of Birth of the Foreign-Born Population: 1850


to 2000

Top 10 Countries of Origin for US Legal Immigrants,


1995-2003

US Population by Race and Ethnicity, 1990-2050

Illegal Aliens in the United States by Country of


Origin, 1990-2000 (in 1,000s)

Types of Migration
Internal Migration
Within one country.
Crossing domestic jurisdictional
boundaries.
Movements between states or
provinces.
Little government control.
Factors:

Employment-based.
Retirement-based.
Education-based.
Civil conflicts (internally
displaced population).

Migration by Major Metropolitan Areas in the United


States, 1990-98 (in 1,000s)

Types of Migration
Local Migration

Central City

Suburb

No state boundaries are crossed.


Buying a new house in the same
town or city.
Difficult to research since they
are usually missed in census
data.
Based on change of income or
lifestyle.
Often very high levels of local
migration.
Americans change residence
every 5 to 7 years.

Types of Migration
Voluntary migration
The migrant makes the decision to move.
Most migration is voluntary.

Involuntary
Forced migration in which the mover has no role in the decisionmaking process.
Slavery:
About 11 million African slaves were brought to the Americas between
1519 and 1867.
In 1860, there were close to 4 million slaves in the United States.

Refugees.
Military conscription.
Children of migrants.
Situations of divorce or separation.

Types of Migration
Type

Characteristics

International

Crossing a boundary; easier to control; regulated;


difference in income; 2-3 million per year.

National

Between states or provinces; little control; employment


opportunities; education; retirement.

Local

Within a city/region; change of income or lifestyle.

Voluntary

The outcome of a choice.

Involuntary

The outcome of a constraint.

Selective Migration
Context
Many migrations are selective.
Do not represent a cross section of the source population.
Differences:
Age.
Sex.
Level of education.

Age-specific migrations

One age group is dominant in a particular migration.


International migration tends to involve younger people.
The dominant group is between 25 and 45.
Studies and retirement are also age-specific migrations.

Population Pyramid of Native and Foreign Born


Population, United States, 2000 (in %)
Foreign Born
Male

Female

Native
Age

Male

Female

Selective Migration
Sex-specific migrations
Males:
Often dominant international migrations.
Once established, try to bring in a wife.

Females:

Often dominate rural to urban migrations.


Find jobs as domestic help or in new factories.
Send remittances back home.
Filipino females 17-30 to Hong Kong and Japan.

Mail-order bride:

100,000 150,000 women a year advertise themselves for marriage.


About 10,000 available on the Internet at any time.
Mainly from Southeast Asia and Russia.
Come from places in which jobs and educational opportunities for women
are scarce and wages are low.

Selective Migration
Education-specific migrations
May characterize some migrations (having or lacking of).
High level of education attained by most contemporary Asian
immigrants to the USA and Canada.
Educational differences:
21% of all legal immigrants have at least 17 years of education.
8% for native-born Americans.
20% of all immigrants do not have 9 years of schooling.

Foreign students:
Often do not return to their home countries after their education.
Often cannot utilize what they have learned.
Since 1978 some 130,000 Chinese overseas students have returned
while some 250,000 have remained abroad.
Most research-oriented graduate institutions have around 40% foreign
students.

Selective Migration
Immigration and jobs
Related to the economic sector.
High level:
Filling high skilled position in science, technology and education.
Not enough highly trained personnel in the US.
Result in recruiting abroad (see brain drain).

Low level:
Filling low paid jobs (minimum wage) that most people do not want
(agriculture and low level services).
Maintain low wages in low skilled jobs.
Possibility of an informal economy.

Brain Drain
Definition
Relates to educationally specific selective migrations.
Some countries are losing the most educated segment of their
population.
Can be both a benefit for the receiving country and a problem to
the country of origin.

Receiving country
Getting highly qualified labor contributing to the economy right
away.
Promotes economic growth in strategic sectors: science and
technology.
Not having to pay education and health costs.
30% of Mexicans with a PhD are in the US.

Brain Drain
Country of origin
Education and health costs not paid back.
Losing potential leaders and talent:
Between 15 and 40% of a graduating class in Canada will move to the
US.

Long term impact on economic growth.


Possibility of remittances.
Many brain drain migrants have skills which they cant use at
home:
The resources and technology may not be available there.
The specific labor market is not big enough.

May eventually come back with skills and connections:


Korea, Taiwan, China and India.

Non US Citizens with Science and Engineering


Doctorates in the United States, 1999

Likelihood of the Well-Educated to Stay, 1998

10 = most likely

Percentage of College Educated Citizens Living


Abroad

H-1B Work Visas by Major Occupation, 1999-2000

H-1B Work Visas by Level of Education, 1999-2000

Migration Theory
1. Push - Pull Theory
What are the major push and pull factors behind migration?

2. Economic Approaches
How can migration be explained from an economic perspective?

3. Behavioral Explanations to Migration


How can migration be explained from a human behavior
perspective?

Push - Pull Theory


Context
Migrations as the response of individual decision-makers.
Negative or push factors in his current area of residence:

High unemployment and little opportunity.


Great poverty.
High crime.
Repression or a recent disaster (e.g., drought or earthquake).

Positive or pull factors in the potential destination:


High job availability and higher wages.
More exciting lifestyle.
Political freedom, greater safety and security, etc.

Push - Pull Theory


Intervening obstacles
Migration costs / transportation.
Immigration laws and policies of the destination country.

The problem of perception


Assumes rational behavior on the part of the migrant:

Not necessarily true since a migrant cannot be truly informed.


The key word is perception of the pull factors.
Information is never complete.
Decisions are made based upon perceptions of reality at the destination
relative to the known reality at the source.

When the migrants information is highly inaccurate, a return


migration may be one possible outcome.

Push - Pull Theory

Intervening obstacles

Origin
Positive factors
Neutral factors
Negative factors

Destination

Push-Pull Factors for Chinese Students Deciding to


Say in the United States, 1997

Push-Pull Factors for Chinese Students Deciding to


Return to China, 1997

Economic Approaches
Labor mobility
Labor shortages
High wages

Migration

Surplus labor
Low wages

The primary issue behind migration.


Notably the case at the national level.
Equilibrate the geographical differences in
labor supply and demand.
Accelerated with the globalization of the
economy.

Remittances
Capital sent by workers working abroad to
their family / relatives at home.
$62 billion in 1999:
$16 billion each year goes out of Saudi Arabia
as remittances.
2nd most important most important source of
income for Mexico (after oil and before
tourism); 16.6 billion in 2004.

Workers Remittances, top 10 countries, 1995-1999


(in $US)

Behavioral Explanations of Migration

Stay with parents


Move to college
25

50

First job
Marriage
Promotion

Life-cycle factors
Migration linked to events in ones life.
People in their 30s are the most mobile.
Education, career, and family are being
established.

Later in life, flexibility decreases and inertia


increases.
Retirement often brings a major change.
Large migrations of retired people have been
Children leave home occurring in the direction of amenitiesoriented areas.
Retirement

75
Loss of mobility

Behavioral Explanations of Migration


Migrants as risk-takers
Why, among a population in the same environment (the same
push factors), some leave and some stay?
Migrants tend to be greater risk-takers, more motivated, more
innovative and more adaptable.
Non-migrants tend to be more cautious and conservative.
Can be used to explain the relative dynamism in some societies,
like the USA since the 1800s.

Summary
No one theory of migration can adequately explain this huge
worldwide phenomenon.
Each brings a contribution to the understanding of why people
move.

Refugees
1. Definition
What is a refugee and how one qualifies for this status?

2. Contemporary Evolution
How the refugee situation has evolved in time?

Definition
The United Nations definition
The 1951 Convention Regarding the Status of Refugees and the
1967 Protocol on the Status of Refugees:
..... any person who, owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for
any reasons of race, religion, nationality, member of a particular social
group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is
unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection
of that country. .

The problem lies in the definition of who is a refugee.


There are no international agreements to protect people who
cross boundaries for their economic survival.

Definition
Conditions to qualify for refugee status
Political persecution must be demonstrated.
An international boundary must be crossed:
Domestically displaced persons do not qualify.

Protection by ones government is not seen an alternative:


The government may be the persecutor.
Could be incapable of protecting its citizens from persecution.

Definition
Environmental and economic refugees
People who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their
homelands because of what are primarily environmental or
economic factors of unusual scope.
Sources:

Natural disaster.
Human alterations to the environment; climate change.
Contamination (pollution) of the environment.
Lack of development and opportunities.

Render continued residence in that particular location


unsustainable.
Mozambique, February 2000:
Floods made 1 million people homeless.
Destroyed agricultural land and cattle.

Contemporary Evolution
Origins
The first recorded refugees were the Protestant Huguenots who
left France to avoid religious persecution.
About 200,000 at the end of the 17th century.
Went to England, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and
the English colonies in North America.

Pre-WW II and during WW II


Primarily political elites:
Fleeing repression from the new government, which overthrew them.
Usually small in number and often had substantial resources available to
them.

War-driven refugees:
About 12% of the European population displaced.
Usually could be expected to repatriate after the war ended.

Contemporary Evolution
Post WW II
Change in the patterns of refugee flows:
The majority of refugees are now coming from the developing world.

De-colonization in Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean:


Political unrest in many newly independent states.
Multi-ethnic nature of those states.
The result of the drawing of colonial boundary lines by Europeans.

The Cold War also increased political instability in a number of


countries.
Political instability in Latin America increased due to the vast
social inequalities existing in that region.
New kind of refugee flow:
Large and of long (or permanent) duration.

Contemporary Evolution
Current issues
Refugees are a controversial issue:

Especially in the developed world.


Only a small share of the asylum seekers are granted the refugee status.
Less than 20% for the European Union.
Increasingly, refugees are no longer accepted.
Economic refugees resorting to asylum as the only way to get a legal
status.

1996 amendment to US immigration law:


Enforcing detention for all refugees entering the United States.
INS can summarily deport those who arrive without valid travel
documents.
4,000 detained on any given day.

Refugees per Continent, 1981-2003

Origins and Destinations of Refugees, 2003

10,000
100,000
1,000,000

Red = Origin
Green = Destination

Main Asylum Countries and Internally Displaced


Population, 2001

Urbanization
1. Context and Issues
What is urbanization and what are its causes?

2. Why People Move to Urban Areas?


3. Megacities and Urban Regions
What is the current state of global urbanization?

4. Shantytowns
What characterizes the prevailing urban environment?

Context and Issues


Population growth
(Natural increase or
migration)

What is urbanization?
Urbanization is the agglomeration
of population in cities:
Growth of the proportion of the
population living in cities.

Demographic process:
Urban population growth (natural
increase or migration).

Infrastructure process:
Expansion of urban infrastructures
and land use.

Economic process:
Creation of secondary, tertiary and
quaternary sectors.

Urban expansion

Creates a society where values


and lifestyles are urban.

Context and Issues


Causes of urbanization
Historical:
Defense.
Trade routes.

Social:
Increased social interactions.
Institutions representing a society (government, religion & education).

Economic:

Linked with agricultural surpluses.


Increased economic opportunities.
Access to labor.
Specialization.
Economies of scale and of agglomeration.

Context and Issues


The urban explosion
Urban population growth is the most important change in
population geography.
About 50% of the global population, 3 billions, lives in cities.
Almost all the population growth between 2000 and 2030 will
occur in cities.
By 2050, 6.2 billion people will live in cities, more than the current
(2000) population.
Much of this growth will come in the worlds poorest countries.

World Urban Population, 1950-2000 with Projections


to 2020 (in billions)

Annual Growth of World and Urban Populations,


1950-2030 (in millions)

Context and Issues


Developed countries
Developed countries are already urbanized.
Passed through the rural - urban migration process.
Concurrent with demographic transition and industrialization.

Developing countries
Going through a major phase of urbanization.
Urbanization mainly occurs in developing countries:
Will account for 93% of the 2 billion increase in the global urban
population between 2000 and 2030.
Latin America and East Asia is farthest along.
The rest of Asia is a little further behind.
Africa is urbanizing more slowly than the other world regions.

Stages of Urbanization
Initial Stage Transition Stage Terminal Stage
100

Urban Population

Demographic transition
Rural to urban migration

80
60

Rural
Society

Developing
countries

40
20

Least developed
countries

Urbanization

Time

Developed countries

Urban
Society

Percentage of Population Urban, 2000

Less than 25%


25% to 50%
50% to 75%
More than 75%
NA

% of Urban Population, 1950-2030

Urban Population, 1950-2030 (in millions)

Why People Move to Urban Areas?


Context

50 million new urbanites each year.


1 million new urbanites each week.
About 155,000 new urbanites each day.
About 75,000 rural poor migrate to cities each day.
Major changes in the developing world.
Migration:
Makes a significant contribution to the growth of urban areas.
Accounts for between 40% and 60% of annual urban population growth in
the developing world.
Huge rural-to-urban migration potential in areas having a large rural
population.

Why People Move to Urban Areas?


Push-Pull considerations
Both are affecting rural-urban migrations.
Pull of the cities may determine the destination.
Migrants are pulled toward cities:
Prospect of jobs and higher incomes.
Most early urbanization was the result of pull considerations.

Pushed out of rural areas:


Push factors predominate as the motivation to move.
Poverty, lack of land, declining agricultural work, war, and famine.
Play more importance today than push considerations.

Push - Pull Factors for Urbanization in the Third World

PUSH

Rural

Instability
Rural structures
Low employment
Demographic pressure

PULL

Employment market
Better services
Low barriers
Modernity

Migration
18-35

Urban

Why People Move to Urban Areas?


Factor

Condition

Issues

Instability /
Disasters / Wars /
Famines

Push

Creation of refugees. Cities as safe heavens.

Expectation of jobs

Pull

Higher wages but higher living costs. Large


labor markets. Informal sector dominant.

Deterioration of rural
life

Push

Demographic growth. Land tenure (landless


peasants). Mechanization (surplus labor).

Transportation

Intervening
opportunities

Increased mobility. Lower costs. Construction


of roads and rails. Access to rural markets.

More and better


services

Pull

Better schools and health services. Access to


water and electricity. Overcrowding and
pollution.

% of the Population Having Access to Public


Infrastructure in Developing Countries, 1990

Why People Move to Urban Areas?


Urbanization and economic survival
Decision to move to an urban area:
Part of a complex survival strategy.
Families minimize risk by placing members in different labor markets.
Largest labor market maximizing the chances of employment and
survival.

Cities are the largest labor markets.


Favelas (squatter settlements) of Rio de Janeiro:
Cannot be understood without reference to the latifundia land system in
rural Brazil.
Characterized by large landholdings owned by a limited elite.
Peasants as contract labor with no ownership.

Megacities and Urban Regions


Concentration
An increasing share of the global population lives in megacities:

Megacities (over one million).


Supercities (over 4 million).
Supergiants (over 10 million).
First modern megacity, Beijing 1770.

1900:
233 million urbanites (14% of the global population); 20 megacities.

1950:
83 megacities.
34 cities in developing countries.

2000:
3 billion urbanites (50%); 433 megacities.
All new millionaire cities are in developing countries.
11 of the 15 largest cities are in developing countries.

Number of Cities with Populations of 5 Million or


More, 1950-2000

Cities of more than 8 million, 1950-2000


1950

1970

1990

2000

Developed countries
New York
London

New York
London
Tokyo
Los Angeles
Paris

Tokyo
New York
Los Angeles
Moscow
Osaka
Paris

Tokyo
New York
Los Angeles
Moscow
Osaka
Paris

Developing countries
None

Shanghai
Mexico City
Buenos Aires
Beijing
Sao Paulo

Mexico City
Sao Paulo
Shanghai
Calcutta
Buenos Aires
Bombay
Seoul
Beijing
Rio de Janeiro
Tianjin
Jakarta
Cairo
Delhi
Manila

Mexico City
Sao Paulo
Shanghai
Calcutta
Bombay
Beijing
Jakarta
Delhi
Buenos Aires
Lagos
Tianjin
Seoul
Rio de Janeiro
Dhaka
Cairo
Manila
Karachi
Bangkok
Istanbul
Teheran
Bangalore
Lima

Cities with more than 5 Million People, 2000

Saint Petersburg
London
Los Angeles

Chicago
New York

Paris
Essen

Moscow

Istanbul
Cairo

Mexico City

Santiago

Santiago

BeijingTianjin Seoul

Osaka
Lahore
Delhi ChongqingWuhan
Karachi
Shanghai
Calcutta
Hyderabad
BangaloreMadras Bangkok

Lagos
Kinshasa

Lima
Rio de Janeiro
Santiago
Buenos Aires

Jakarta

The 15 Largest cities in the world, 2000-2015

Shantytowns
Context
Many of the new urban dwellers, particularly women and their
children, are among the poorest people in the world.
Difficulty to access housing:

Economic costs.
Availability.
100 million people are homeless.
928 million live in precarious housing conditions (slums).

Shantytowns; informal habitat or squatter housing:

Favelas (Brazil).
Pueblos jovenes (Young towns).
Asentamiento irregulares (Irregular settlements).
Villas miserias (Miserable villages, Argentina).
Jughi Jopri (India).

Shantytowns
Definition
Dwellings are built by the current or original occupant:
Rudimentary construction materials.
Did not receive a construction permit.
Do not follow norms in terms of housing and sanitation.

Inhabitants have no legal title to the land:

Most are located in areas being declared inhabitable.


Own by the municipality.
Abandoned private land.
Exploiting a legal vacuum of land ownership.

Lack of urban services:


Generally not serviced by public utilities such as tap water, electricity,
roads, public transportation and sewage.

Shantytowns
Setting

Disamenity

Disamenity
CBD

Commercial/Industrial
Elite Residential Sector
Zone of Maturity
Zone in Situ Accretion
Zone of peripheral
squatter settlements

Shantytowns are constructed


over the least desirable land.
Put the population at risk.
Caracas, Venezuela, 1999:
Mudslides killed 50,000
inhabitants.
Created 400,000 homeless.
500,000 of the 6 million
inhabitants were considered at
high risk.

Bhopal, India, 1984:


Union Carbide release of toxic
cocktail.
500,000 people exposed.
16,000 deaths.

Shantytowns
Habitat
Informal settlements:
Perhaps the most visible sign of widespread poverty.
About 25% of the surface of cities in developing countries is covered by
shantytowns.
30-60% of the urban population.

Emerged in all Third World cities:


Following the demographic explosion.
Now the norm more than the exception.

Incapacity of private and public instances:


Provide low price housing for the majority of the population.
The State more concerned about providing housing for its public servants
and its middle class.

Housing crisis that could not be solved.

Shantytowns
Growth process
People expelled from gentrification in downtown areas.
Inflow of people expelled from poverty in rural areas.
In several cases, rightful owners of land have divided it in small
lots and sold it in order to have a higher profit.
In some instances, land was illegally sold to dwellers being
framed.

Is there any hope?


Housing has always been a priority for investment.
As the population of Third World cities gets higher incomes, the
priority will be improving their housing conditions.
On the long run, shantytowns are likely to disappear (or at least
become less significant).

Shantytowns as Share of the Total Population