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Scenario planlegging
Andr Kroneberg
MARINTEK
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Agenda
Teori/grunnlag
Pause
Praktisk oppgave
Case: WWL scenario prosess 2000
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Teori/grunnlag
Definisjon
Historikk
Metode/prosess
Fasilitatorens oppgaver
Oppgaver
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Scenarios - Definitions
Scenarios are structurally different stories about how the future
might develop
Scenario 1
Scenario 3
Today
Single-point forecast
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
The future
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Scenarios - History
2 WW: Scenarios used in military planning by the U.S. Air
force
60s: Herman Kahn develops comprehensive scenarios
concerning governmental and military issues
70s: SHELL implements scenario planning in their
organisation just in time to prepare for the emerging oil
crisis (73)
80s: Scenarios gain acceptance in Norway - Statoil
(E&D), Scenarier 2000 (Hydro, Aker, DnV, IBM)
90s: Increasing interest in scenario learning/planning.
Several comprehensive books on the topic are relased
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Scenarios - Techniques
A broad spectrum of
various techniques for
developing scenarios exists
The SRI approach:
representative/recognised
Step 1
Strategic
Decisions
Step 2
Key Decision
Factors
Future forward
Step 4
Step 3
Scenario
1
Environmental
Forces
Scenario
Logics
Decision
Implications
Scenario
2
Scenarios
Scenario
Scenari
3
o3
Scenario
4
Step 6
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Introduction to Step 1:
The strategic decision
Internal logistics provider in Statoil: Business development
The role of our company in integrated supply chains: Strategies for
controlling the chains
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Introduction to Step 2:
Key Decision Factors
Which factors would you rely on when choosing strategy?
Which factors are important when making the hard decision?
How can the strategic decision be de-composed into sub factors?
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Introduction to Step 3:
Environmental forces
Social
MACRO
Rules&
regulations
Media
Competitors
MICRO
Technology Suppliers
COMPANY
Ecology
Substitutes
Customers Politics
Economics
Demography
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Introduction to step 4:
Scenario logic
The scenario logic is defined as the organising principle of the key drivers
of change (i.e. in what way will the key drivers of change develop and
change the business environment)
+
2x2 Matrix:
Well structured
Easy to communicate
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Introduction to step 4:
Scenario logic
Governmental initiatives:
Deregulation
Privatisation of Statoil
Degree of uncertainty
Low
High
Significant
GLOBALISATION:
Globalisation offshore logistics
Industry structure
IT
Impact on
the strategic
focus / KDFs
Insignificant
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Introduction to step 5:
Description of scenarios
A story line incorporating developments and
interactions in important external forces and key
decision factors. It is important that the story lines
are characterised by causal relations and internal
consistency with respect to the underlying logic
(refer step 4),
A table showing how the key parameters vary
across the scenarios,
Specific events, and
A creative name or heading
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Introduction to Step 6:
Develop strategy alternatives
What if we knew
this scenario
would occur?
Scenario D
Scenario C
Scenario B
Scenario A
What would be the threats and
opportunities?
SOURCE: SRIC
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The facilitator
A facilitator needs to be neutral, i.e. no opportunistic self-interest with
respect to the final outcome of the scenario process.
A facilitator needs to be a good listener. The facilitator should
primarily structure inputs from the scenario team rather than running
the show him/herself.
A facilitator needs to be analytic in order to structure the discussions in
an efficient manner.
A facilitator needs to understand the basics of scenario planning. It is
important to have an understanding of the concept of scenarios in
order to set the proper goals for the scenario process.
A facilitator needs to be able to motivate the participants.
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Neutral Facilitator
Technician
Generalist
Optimist
Male
Pessimist
Specialist
Economist
Female
Source: METIER SCANDINAVIA
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External participation
Broaden horizon
Removal of blinders
New perspectives
Complementary/in-depth knowledge
Experts, generalist, customers, suppliers,...
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Practical Exercise
Develop a scenario for the
entertainment industry in 2005
Remember:
Scenarios are radically different from the
situation today, but at the same time
plausible...
Describe scenario:
Name, bullet points, illustration
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MARINTEK - experience
MARINTEK - SRI Consulting (98): Innovation in
the container industry
MARINTEK - Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum
and Energy (98): Floating production and offshore
MARINTEK - Statoil DTJ (99): The role of DTJ
in integrated supply chains: Robust strategies
MARINTEK - Wallenius Wilhelmsen Lines (00):
Logistics management services required by new
and existing customers in the next five years
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Background
Goals
Process
Scenarios
Feedback/conclusions
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Background
Significant changes in the business
environment:
- Consolidation and globalisation
- Time-based competition
- Outsourcing of logistics
- Emerging system integrators
- Increased systems integration
- De-regulatory efforts
- Environmental concerns
Increased focus
on logistics need
to develop
logistics strategy
Scenario planning
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600
In billions US$
550
According to Northeastern
University and Armstrong &
Associates, the outsourcing
market is growing nearly 20 %
annually
Logistics: Logistics is that
part of the supply chain
process that plans,
implements, and controls the
efficient, effective flow and
storage of goods, services,
and related information from
the point of origin to the point
of consumption in order to
meet customers' requirements
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
5 year
outsourcing
potential
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Background
Input from GLM project: Step 2 and 3
WWL vision:
Help our customers succeed through innovative
transportation and logistics solutions
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Goals
Explore the need for future logistics management services
Contribute in the strategy formulation process and in
establishing divisional and regional measures and targets
with respect to logistics management services
Develop a map of the future with respect to new logistics
management services
Input to Global Logistics Management project
Evaluate whether scenario planning should be used on a
regular basis by WWL in their strategic planning process
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Process
Core team:
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Final scenarios
- Postponement of production
- Reduction in ODT
- Customisation
- Time-based competition
- Limited number of carriers Long term client relations
- Erosion of conferences
- System integrators (UPS)
- Containerisation of cars
Stable production patterns
- Combination of:
The coca-cola race
- New
days same way
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Feedback/conclusion
The need for future logistics
management services was
explored by using the scenarios
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Conclusions
WWL decided to
use scenario
planning on a
regular basis and
make the
scenarios a part
of the regular
strategy process
in the company