Conducting Marketing

Research and Forecasting

Demand

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

T h e I n fo rm ati o n V al u e C h ai n

D a ta

I n fo rm ati o n K n o w l e d g e D e ci s i o n I m p l e m en ti n g
A cti o n
D a t a w i t h st r uct u re I n f o rm a t i o n e nd o w e d M a ki n g
w i t h m e a ni n g

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

P ro ce sse s
O ut c o m e s

E xp e rt i s e
i n m e a su re m e nt

Bill Hays - SBC Corp evaluates

customer satisfaction for South
African telecom
Monday
arrive and interview local agency reps
select and inform agency

Tuesday
work on & finalize survey with agency

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

Bill Hays - SBC Corp evaluates

customer satisfaction for South
African telecom
Wednesday
field work and data entry

Thursday
data analysis with agency

Friday

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

The Components of a Modern

Marketing Information System
Marketing Information System (MIS)
10 useful questions for determining the
information needs of marketing
managers.
What decisions do you regularly make?
What information do you need to make these
decisions?
What information do you regularly get?
What special studies do you periodically request?

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

The Components of a Modern

Marketing Information System
What information would you want that you are not
getting now?
What information would you want daily? Weekly?
Monthly? Yearly?
What magazines and trade reports would you like to
see on a regular basis?
What topics would you like to be kept informed of?
What data analysis programs would you want?
What are the four most helpful improvements that
could be made in the present marketing information
system?
Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

Secondary-Data Sources
SecondaryData Sources

A.

B.

C.

Internal Sources
Company profit-loss statements, balance
sheets, sales figures, sales-call reports,
invoices, inventory records, and prior
research reports.
Government Publications
Statistical Abstract of the United States
County and City Data Book
Industrial Outlook
Marketing Information Guide
Periodicals and Books
Business Periodicals Index
Standard and Poors Industry
See text for complete table
Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

www.foodpsychology.org is a consumer
psychology Web site set up by Dr. Brian
Wansink of Cornell University

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

The Marketing
Research
Process

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

Three-level conceptual map

(The Craft of Research, University of
Chicago Press)

I am studying (topic),
so that I can explain (phenomenon),
so that management can (take action).

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

10

Three-level Conceptual Map

for American Ironhorse
Dealer
Survey

I am studying (dealer value),

so that I can explain (dealers satisfaction),
so that management can (further develop the
Ironhorse brand and increase sales by 50% in
2001).

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

11

 It happened. You got the degree. You

got the job you wanted. It is 12:55 pm
in your office tower. You enter the
building, go to the elevator, and press
the button for the up elevator.
While you are waiting, the CEO
arrives and waits, too.

CEO to You: What are you

working on now?
Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

12

CEO to You: What are you

working on now?
I am working on (loyalty),
so that I can explain (the incentives
needed to retain our blue chip
customers),
so that we can (spend the $55 million for
next years retention program in the
most effective way).

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

13

Marketing Research System

Sampling Plan
Sampling unit
Sample size
Sampling procedure

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

14

Probability and Nonprobability Samples

A. Probability Sample
Simple random sample

Every member of the population has an

equal chance of selection

Continued on next slide . . .

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

15

Probability and Nonprobability Samples

(Continued)
B. Nonprobability
Sample
Convenience sample

The researcher selects the most

accessible population members

Judgment sample

The researcher selects population

members who are good prospects for
accurate information

Quota sample

The researcher finds and interviews a

prescribed number of people in each of
several categories

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

16

Marketing Research System

Contact Methods
Mail questionnaire
Personal interviewing
Arranged interviews
Intercept interviews
Online methods
Click-stream
Cookies
Automated
telephone surveys

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

17

Marketing Research System

Step 3: Collect the
Information
Step 4: Analyze the
Information
Step 5: Present the
Findings
Step 6: Make the
Decision
Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

18

Forecasting and
Demand Measurement
Which Market to
Measure?
Market
Potential market
Available market
Target market
(severed market)
Penetrated market

A Vocabulary for Demand Measurement

Market Demand
Market share
Market penetration index
Share penetration index

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

19

Promotion

3.5

1.84

2.68

3.36

2.71

Worst Mean

3.52
3.17

1.92
2.43

2.51
1.62

3.59
4.11

2.41
2.90

Best Mean

2.88

2.33
1.58

1.90
2.67

4.13
3.70

2.76
2.99

1.75

3.06

2.93

2.45
3.13

2.24
2.70

2.19

3.12
3.87

2.14

2.84

3.42
3.21

2.62
3.46

2.52
2.27

2.34
1.67

3.79
3.89

2.76
2.80

3.12
3.12

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

20

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

21

HomeWay (Shenzhen)
Project

(More slides to come.)

Copyright 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc.