Learning from the tsunami

Rohan Samarajiva
www.lirneasia.net
Agenda
 Three ways of responding to hazards
1. Pretend the danger will not happen
2. Retreat from areas of possible danger
3. Understand the risks, make the necessary
preparations, get on with life
 What is the choice for a dynamic growth-
oriented country? For a dynamic growth-
oriented firm?
 Role of government?
 Role of private sector?
Pretend the danger does not exist
 Sri Lanka has had
plenty of disasters
 Mostly floods and
cyclones
 Even tsunamis
 But we have
passed up
opportunities for
effective
preparedness
Examples: From NDMC 1999
Country Report ( excl. 2000 & ’03)
Year Disaster Deaths Affected families
1978 Cyclone 915 250000
1993 Landslides 29 870
1994 Cyclone 10 456
1996 Cyclone 10 8360
1997 Landslides 15 626
2000 Cyclone 8 55000
2003 Floods 200+ 25000+
Consequences are serious
 Because no national public warning system
existed, gap between first contact
(Kalmunai 0827/0836 SLT) and other
locations further North, South and on West
Coast not used to save lives
 Estimate: 7,000 could have been saved
 Because no dedicated disaster warning
center, no effort made to seek information
in aftermath of Sumatra-Andamans quake
 Estimate: 23,000 could have been saved
Retreat from danger
 If we leave
 Beaches for fear of
tsunamis . . .
 Mountains for fear
of landslides . . .
 Valleys for fear of
floods . . .
 ....
 Where will we live?
Retreat
 Is there any basis in law and
economics?
 Does this approach address economic
costs and tradeoffs?
 What does it do to our psyche?
 Is it compatible with an
entrepreneurial society?
 Can any firm adopt it, and yet remain
dynamic?
Embrace risk, intelligently
 Understand the
hazards
 Identify the
economic costs and
benefits
 Work on disaster
preparedness
The middle path
 Do not take unnecessary risks
 But do not also run away from risk
 Choice based on best possible
information and calculation of trade-
offs
 “Be prepared,” but be adventurous
Understand the hazards
 Best possible information on nature of
relevant hazards
 Vulnerability mapping
 Physical and historical data
 Probabilistic
 Identify the economic costs and
benefits
 Social and economic data
Disaster preparedness
 Timely, accurate,
credible warnings
 Consultative
process in Jan-Feb
2005
 Draft document at
www.lirneasia.net
 Revised text will be
published & handed
to authorities
around Feb 26th
Disaster preparedness
 Appropriate action is
what will save lives
 Response plans, drills,
audits
 Relocation,
modifications, as
required
 Disaster awareness
through education at all
levels
 NIE said to be
promoting in schools Vanguard Centre for
 Vanguard Foundation Disaster Preparedness
will focus on media and
emergency response
personnel
What companies can do . . .
Choose your approach
No help needed for 2; if the other .
.
 Let’s work together to
 Devise industry-level responses
 Integrate disaster preparedness into the
very fabric of how firms operate
 Planning
 Training
 Audits
 Certification
Useful SL websites
 www.lirneasia.net for early warning
discussion document, lively discussion
 Emphasis on ICTs
 www.vanguardfoundationlanka.org
for disaster preparedness work with
market emphasis
 www.indi.ca on seven historical
tsunamis