Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Aula 1
Kurt von Mettenheim
Cincia Poltica
CGAE
EAESP-FGV
Risco Poltico:
S & P: EUA downgrade, 2011
United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks, Rising
Debt Burden; Outlook Negative, 5-Aug-2011
We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from
'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.
The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the
Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to
stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.
More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and
predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a
time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we
assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.
Standard & Poors Metodologia de Anlise de Risco Soberano:
http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDTType&blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename
%3DCriteriaGovernmentsSovereignsSovereignGovernmentRatingMethodologyAndAssumptions.pdf&blobheadername2=ContentDisposition&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&blobkey=id&blobheadername1=contenttype&blobwhere=1243943646614&blobheadervalue3=UTF-8
Estrutura da Aula
1)
Risco Poltico
Definio e Caractersticas
Political Risk = Exposure and losses arising
from:
a) Governments (political structure);
b) Representatives (authority);
c) Reaction of the population to the government
(legitimacy);
d) Society (culture, social phenomena).
Para mais informao:
World Bank Multilateral Investment Guarantee
Agency, Political Risk Center
http://www.pri-center.com
Political Risks:
Instability Risks
Firm-Specific Risks
Discriminatory regulations
"Creeping" expropriation
Breach of contract
Sabotage
Kidnappings
Firm-specific boycotts
Country-Level Risks
Mass nationalizations
Regulatory changes
Currency inconvertibility
Leitura: Coltro,
Gesto de Risco Poltico
Memria e reputao
Anlise da
Economist Intelligence Unit
(EIU)
Seis variaveis polticas so usadas para construir uma escala de
50 pontos e as quatro variveis sociais so usadas para
construir um ndice de 17 pontos Resumidamente, essas
variveis so...
a existncia de vizinhos ruins;
o grau de autoritarismo do governo;
o fato de o governo estar no poder por um tempo excessivo;
o fato de o governo possuir baixa legitimidade;
o fato de os militares estarem no poder;
a presena de guerra civil ou insurreo;
um processo de urbanizao excessiva;
a presena de fundamentalismo islmico;
o nvel de corrupo na sociedade;
o nvel de tenso tnica.
http://www.eiu.com/PublicDefault.aspx
PRS Method
On the basis of political system types, PRS analysts then
assign risk points
12 points for:
i. Government stability
ii. Socioeconomic conditions
iii. Investment profile
iv. Internal conflict
v. External conflict
And up to a maximum of 6 points for:
i. Corruption
ii. Military in politics
iii. Religious tensions
iv. Law and order
v. Ethnic tensions
vi. Democratic accountability
vii. Bureaucracy quality
Poltica
a) Resenho de eventos polticos (eleio? coalizo? )
b) Mudanas / tendncias crticas
c) Composio de Governo (ministro cai? )
d) Oposio (escala: colaborao militarizao )
e) Poltica Exterior (viagem? acordo? )
2)
Governo
a) Mudanas de poltica econmica
b) Poltica e performance fiscal
c) Poltica Monetria
3)
Economia
a) Resenho econmico
b) Indicadores Centrais: GDP/Inflao/Investimento e poupana/trabalho e
emprego/renda e consumo
c) Balano Comercial: Importaes/Exportaes
d) Cmbio
e) Dvida domstica
f) Dvida externa
4)
Um Estudos periodico:
e) Anlise setorial (Agricultura/Energia/Minerao/Indstria/Servios/
f) Anlise Especial (Comrico Exterior/Setor financeiro/Ambiente investimento)
Carta Poltica
Elementos para Deciso Poltica e Econmica
Carta Poltica
GVprev
Carta Mensal,
Pezco Consultoria
Relatrios de Bancos
1) BBV Bradesco
2) Pessoas > Firmas (Pastore, Nobrega
& Loyola...
3) Foreign Banks
Santander/Banespa
Citibank
Credit Suisse & Garantia
BBV Bradesco
No contempla poltica
A no ser na narrativa...
Anlise de Poltica =
impressionismo
www.glccouncils.com
The Gerson Lehrman Group Councils are
global networks of executives, physicians,
scientists, engineers, attorneys, and other
professionals who deliver expertise and
decision-making assistance to business,
government and investment leaders from
around the world.
Consultoria Virtual
Telefonema ou conversa...
Uso de Questionrio
Concluso: Narrativo
Guia para Construir Cenrios
Escrever at 250 palavras por cada item letrada
1)
Poltica
a) Resenho de eventos polticos
b) Mudanas/tendncias crticas
c) Composio de Governo (ministros...)
d) Oposio (colabora militariza...)
e) Poltica Exterior
2)
Governo
a) Mudanas de poltica econmica
b) Poltica e performance fiscal
c) Poltica Monetria
3) Economia
a) Resenho econmico
b) Indicadores Centrais: GDP/Inflao/Investimento e poupana/trabalho e emprego/renda e
consumo
c) Balano Comercial: Importaes/Exportaes
d) Cmbio
e) Dvida domstica
f) Dvida externa
Mais estudos periodicos:
e) Anlise setorial (Agricultura/Energia/Minerao/Indstria/Servios/
f) Anlise Especial (Comrico Exterior/Setor financeiro/Ambiente investimento)