Probabilistic Seismic

Hazard Analysis
(PSHA)
Site/Building Specific Spectral Analyses,
Liquefaction Susceptibility and Deaggregation of
Risk for Grenada
By: Kevin M. Blache - 813117777

Aim:
The ultimate goal of this project was to conduct
a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)
for Grenada.
As a result of this a series of objectives geared towards achieving the
prescribed goal were created.

Objectives:
The objectives required were as follows:

To conduct a review of Seismicity and the resultant

Seismic Hazard, both on a Global scale and more
specifically for the Caribbean Region.
To research and define the methods of assessing
Seismic Hazard and hence compare methods.
To deduce the method for conducting a Probabilistic
Seismic Hazard Analysis and Deaggregation of Seismic
Risk.

Objectives:

The objectives required were as follows:

To perform a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Analysis and Deaggregation Analysis for Grenada
To compare the results of the analyses conducted
to similar analyses throughout the region.

Seismicity & Seismic Hazard

An Earthquake is a sudden violent shaking of the ground
from movements of the Earths crust. (New Dictionary of
Civil Engineering)
Seismicity refers to the occurrence or frequency of
earthquakes in a region.
The genesis of seismic activity is the resulting movement of
the surface of the Earth caused by convection currents
located beneath Earths crust in the mantle.
A seismic hazard, in a Civil Engineering context, arises when
the seismicity of a region poses a threat to citizens safety as
well as public and private property.

Seismicity & Seismic Hazard

Types of Earthquakes

Seismicity in the Caribbean

Past Studies on Seismicity in the

Caribbean

Pereira and Gay (1978) Seismic Hazard Analysis (Jamaica & Trinidad)
Taylor et al. (1978) Seismic Hazard Analysis
Ambeh (1992) Earthquake Hazard in the Caribbean
Tanner & Shepherd (1997) Seismic Hazard in Latin America & the
Caribbean
Shedlock (1999) Seismic Hazard Map for North & Central America
European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering
(EUCENTRE) and Seismic Research Department (2010) Seismic
Hazard Maps for the Caribbean

Seismic Hazard Analysis Methods

Deterministic vs. Probabilistic

Deterministic Analysis:
Uses past events to determine seismic risk, in an effort to ensure that
an event is realistic. It assumes that all events are governed by past
events.

Probabilistic Analysis:
Involves all deterministic events with a finite probability of
occurrence (all possible events). It also applies statistical analysis
methods to determine the seismic risk.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Analysis Method
First proposed by Cornell (1968).
Composed of Five (5) Steps as presented by Kramer (1996)
and Baker (2015).

Steps for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

(PSHA)
Identify Source Zones for Earthquakes in an area. Thus determine

source to site distances.

Conduct Gutenberg-Richter Linear Regression Analysis to
determine the rate of occurrence of Earthquakes.
Apply Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) to model the
response of the ground or building to Earthquake, given a
magnitude and a distance.
Determine the probability of exceeding a given ground motion.
Combine all of the rates and probabilities from the previous steps
for the source zones.

Statistical & Probability Theory Involved in the

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Method
Discrete & Continuous

Random Variables
Probability Mass & Density
Functions (PMF & PDF )
Cumulative Density Functions
(CDF)
Probability Distributions
(Poisson and Normal)
Conditional Probabilities

Total Probability Theorem

Bayes Theorem

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis &

Total Probability Theorem

This can then be adapted to the analysis of seismic hazards
as follows:

Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence for

Magnitude

Where: is the rate of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than m occur
and are constants estimated from regression analysis of past seismic data

Rate of exceeding a given magnitude:

(CDF)
Probability of a given magnitude occurring

Source to Site Distance

Probability

of an earthquake occurring at a given distance:

The source zone must be subdivided into smaller areas.

Hence the probability is calculated as a ratio of a smaller
area to the total zonal area.

Ground Motion Prediction Equation

(GMPE) for Magnitude and Distance
Sample
Ground Motion Prediction Equation:

Probability of exceeding a Ground Motion given a particular

magnitude and distance:
Where: is the normal cumulative distribution function
is the mean spectral acceleration (g) value
is the standard deviation of spectral acceleration (g) values

Combination of All Rates and

Probabilities

Annual Rate of Exceedance of a Ground Motion given both earthquake
magnitude and distance:

Deaggregation & Bayes

Theorem
Bayes
Theorem uses conditional probability:

Deaggregation & Bayes

Theorem
When adapted to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment yields:

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Analysis for Grenada
Applying the aforementioned steps according to the Cornell
(1968) Method.

Grenada
Capital: St. Georges
Population: ~100,000
Parishes: 6
Sister Isles:
Carriacou & Petite
Martinique

Selection of
Source Zones

Shallow
Source Zones
(0-70 km)

Intermediat
e
Source
Zones (70300 km)

Verification of Source Zone 1

Verification of Source Zone 2

Verification of Source Zone 3

Verification of Source Zone 4

GutenbergRichter
Relationships
for Source Zones
1-4

Discrete PDF of
Magnitudes for
Source Zones 1-4

Subdivision of Source Zones

Ground Motion Prediction Equation

(GMPE)
Peak Ground Acceleration
PGA(g)

is described as the motion

that a particle on the ground
will experience.
Both are measured as units
of acceleration due to gravity
(g) m/s2
Typical accelerations: 0.05g
to 1g
0.005g barely felt, 0.05g
unpleasant, 0.5g would

Spectral Acceleration SA(g)

is described as the motion which a

building approximately experiences.
It is modelled by a particle on a
massless vertical rod having the same
natural period of vibration as the
building.
Hence is more useful from a civil
engineering standpoint.
Period of vibration of a structure T =
0.1 times the number of floors.

End Result of Probabilistic

Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combination of Rates and Probabilities to complete
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)
Deaggregation of Seismic Risk

American Society of Civil Engineers

ASCE 7-05
Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other
Structures
Trinidad & Tobago and most of the Caribbean subscribe to the
American Society of Civil Engineers ASCE 7-05 as the Code of
Practice for Seismic Design and Design Criteria.
The Code requires the determination of Spectral Acceleration SA (g)
at low periods (0.2 seconds) and at higher periods (1.0 seconds).
The Code also stipulates site specific analyses for any sites which are
considered Site Class F.

The Code requires that Spectral Acceleration SA(g) consistent with a

probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 years (return period of 2475
years) be used for seismic design.
Therefore Hazard Curves were compiled at these periods and
Deaggregation analysis was also consistent with the rate of
exceedance recommended by the code.

American Society of Civil Engineers

ASCE 7-05
Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and
Other Structures

Calculation of Return Period

Where: is the probability of a seismic event occurring (2%
in 50 years)
is the rate of recurrence of a seismic event
is the return period for a seismic event (2475 years)

Hazard
Curve at
0.2 Seconds
Shows contribution
of Zones

Hazard Curve
at 1.0
Seconds
Shows contribution of
Zones

Results from Hazard Curve

Spectral

0.2 Seconds

1.0 Seconds

0.06 g

0.019 g

Acceleration
Corresponding
To Return
Period of 2475
years

Deaggregation of Seismic Risk for Zones 1 & 2 at

0.2 Seconds

Deaggregation of Seismic Risk for Zones 3 & 4 at 0.2

Seconds

Deaggregation of Seismic Risk for Zones 3 & 4 at

1.0 Seconds

Deaggregation of Seismic Risk for Zones 3 & 4 at

1.0 Seconds

Summary of Deaggregation
Results
0.2 Seconds
Zone

1.0 Seconds

Magnitude

Distance
(km)

Magnitude

Distance
(km)

1 (Shallow - North of
Venezuela)

4.5-5.0

120

5.0-5.5

120

2 (Tobago)

4.5-5.0

100

5.0-5.5

100

3 (East of Trinidad)

6.0-6.5

200

6.0-6.5

200

4 (Intermediate - North of
Venezuela)

4.5-5.0

60

5.0-5.5

60

Limitations
Earthquake Catalogue for the Caribbean has events spanning less than

years (some of which contains discrepancies).

Earthquake records (measurements) for the Caribbean has limited
strong motion records.
Zoning Techniques affects recurrence rates.
Ground Motion Prediction Equations adapted from regions outside of the
Caribbean. Boore & Atkinson (2008) GMPE used, though it accounts for
variation, does admit that regional variations do indeed occur.
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis considers all events cumulatively.
Therefore Deaggregation seeks to single out the maximum risk.

Recommendations
Collect sufficient strong motion records for
Caribbean region and develop a Ground Motion
Prediction Equation specific to the region.
Apply Ground Motion Prediction Equations from
regions around the World with a similar faulting
type to the Caribbean.
Compare results of the above recommendations to
verify results.

Conclusion
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is an appropriate
method for assessing seismic risk.
Deaggregation of Risk is also appropriate since it yields more
specific results as it regards the magnitude and source to site
distance associated with the exceedance of a spectral
acceleration SA(g) as required by the ASCE 7-05.
Although the Caribbean region has a high level of seismic
active, the spectral acceleration expected for Grenada is
relatively low.

Questions?

Thank You.