Impact Hazards

Can we predict impacts?

Incomplete inventory of objects
May be a million km-sized objects

Initial observations don't permit completely

accurate predictions
Comets vent gases and change orbits
The meaning of probability of impact
Planets dont wander
Observational uncertainty

Example, Measuring A Lot

You measure the lot 5 times, getting 99.7,
99.9, 100.1, 100.0 and 100.3 feet.
Average = 100
Best estimate but might not be true value
Any random measurement has even odds
of being too high or low
P All 5 too high or low = (1/2) 5 = 1/32
P 4 too high or low = 5/32
P 3 too high or low = (5*4/2)/32 = 10/32

Impact Probability

Impact Probability

The Torino Scale of Impact Hazard

Named for the city in Italy, not a person
Assesses both probability of event and
potential effects of impact, so measures
two different things
Not completely consistent.

The Torino Scale of Impact Hazard

Low or no hazard
0 - No danger, or object too small to penetrate atmosphere
1 - Normal. No likelihood of impact

Merits attention by astronomers

2 - Close pass but no cause for concern
3 - 1% chance of impact causing local damage
4 - 1% chance of impact causing regional damage

Threatening
5 - Close pass by object capable of causing regional damage
6 - Close pass by object capable of causing global effects
7 - Very close pass by object capable of causing global effects

Certain Impact
8 - Impact capable of causing local damage or tsunami
9 - Impact capable of causing regional damage or tsunami
10 - Impact with global effects

Torino Scale

Meteorite
Peekskill,
NY 1992

Chondrite

Stony-Iron Meteorite

Iron Meteorite

Meteo-Wrongs
Meteorites Never:
Have internal cavities
Have layers
Have veins
Flatten on impact
Mold around objects
Almost never light in color outside

If you think its magnetic, its not magnetic

Nope

Nope

Uh-uh

No Way

Nope

Nope

Nope

Tektites

Very silica-rich, water poor glassy rocks

Terrestrial vs. Extraterrestrial origin?
Volcanic vs. Impact origin?
Problems:
Odd chemistry
If terrestrial, why are they spread so widely?
If extraterrestrial, why are they so localized?

Now considered impact glass

Atmospheric shock wave evacuates atmosphere

Tektites

Spectrum of Impact Scenarios

Atmospheric impact and air burst
(Tunguska, 1908)
Surface impact causing local damage
Surface impact with 100 km damage
radius
Surface impact with 1000 km damage
radius
Surface impact with global effects

Tunguska, 1908

Tunguska, 1908

Sikhote-Alin
Fall,
February 12,
1947
Mass =
100,000 Kg

Sikhote-Alin Crater

Sikhote-Alin Crater

Sikhote-Alin Crater

Near Miss, August 10, 1972

1972 Near Miss

Object was about
the size of a bus
Entered Atmosphere
over Utah, travelling
north, exited over
Canada
Velocity 15 km/sec
Missed by 58 km

Returning to Space

Carangas, Peru, 2007

Carangas, Peru, 2007

What happens during impact

Atmospheric entry
Microscopic objects gradually decelerate
Millimeter-sized objects vaporize, seen as meteors
Meter-sized objects may fragment and survive
passage
House-sized objects hit with force

Contact-compression phase
Transient crater phase
Rebound and collapse phase

Impact Processes
Impact releases kinetic energy
instantaneously Explosion
Explosion scaling: Volume proportional to
energy
Radius scales as cube root of energy

Energy Measures
Kiloton = 4.2 x 1012 Joules = 1012 calories
Megaton = 4.2 x 1015 Joules = 1015 calories
Note: Small c calories

Kinetic Energy

Assume 10 m rocky object

Volume = 1000 m3, Density = 3000 kg/m3
Mass = 1000 m3 x 3000 kg/m3 = 3 x 106 kg
Velocity = 30 km/sec = 30,000 m/sec
K = mv2 = (3 x 106 kg)(30,000)2
K = 13.5 x 1014 Joules = 270 Kt
= 13 Hiroshima nuclear weapons

What is an Explosion?
Instantaneous point release of energy
Can be mechanical, chemical or nuclear
Damage is caused by the surrounding
material: air, water or solid
Explosions would cause little damage in
space

All Large Explosions Make

Mushroom Clouds

Environmental Effects of Impacts

Radiant heat and flash burns

Blast wave
Seismic waves
Tsunami
Ejecta
Stratospheric dust
Liberated volatiles (carbon dioxide, sulfur,
methane)
Impact volcanism - a myth

Averting Impact Hazards

Simplest Strategy: Detection + Diversion
Destruction too unpredictable
Can object be destroyed?
Cookie crumbs have no calories
In real life, the pieces matter

The longer the lead time, the easier

diversion becomes
Only need a close miss
Detection is cheap and off-the shelf

Diversion
The question is: how to do it? These things must
be done delicately.

Nukes?
Thrusters?
Space tug?
Gravitational?
Solar Sail
Laser?

Asteroid Itokawa