BINOMIAL PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTION

Binomial Probability
Distribution

A binomial experiment is a probability experiment with

the following characteristics:
The experiment has n identical trials.
Two outcomes are possible on each trial one
trial is termed a success and the other is termed
a failure.
The probability of a success occurring on each
trial is p. This probability p is the same on each
trial.
Since the outcome must either be a success or
failure, a failure is the complement of a success
and the probability of a failure is 1-p. (Some texts
refer to this probability as q, that is, q=1-p).
The trials are independent of each other.

Given the above conditions:

The binomial probability distribution provides the
probability of x successes in n trials, where x=0, 1 ,2,
3, , n.
Note that there are only two parameters that
determine binomial probabilities:
n = the number of trials.
p = the probability of success.
Successive trials must be independent of each other.
That is, the outcome of any one trial must not affect
the probability of success or failure for any other trial.
P (success failure on any other trial) = p
P (success success on any other trial) = p

Example number of females selected in

a random sample of size 3 from a large
population of half males and half females.
x is the number of
females selected and
f(x) is the probability of x
females being selected

f(x)

1/8 = 0.125

3/8 = 0.375

3/8 = 0.375

1/8 = 0.125

i Total

8/8 = 1.000

The above distribution is a binomial

probability distribution with success defined
as selecting a female. There are n = 3
independent trials, the probability of success
is p = 0.5, and x is the number of successes.
In this experiment, selecting a male is
termed a failure, and the probability of
selecting a male is 1-p = 1-0.5 = 0.5.

Formula for Binomial

Probability

If n is the number of trials of the

binomial experiment and p is the
probability of success, then the
probability of x successes in n trials
of the experiment is given by the
probability function
f(x),
defined as
n!
x
( n x )
f ( x)
. p .(1 p )
follows:
x!(n x)!
or
f ( x) nCx. p x .(1 p ) ( n x )
where :
n! n(n 1)(n 2)....(2)(1)
0! 1
nCx Combination

Using the binomial formula

3!
3 2 1
0.52 (1 0.5) (3 2)
(0.25)(0.5) 3 0.125 0.375
2!(3 2)!
2 1 1
3!
3 2 1
0
( 3 0 )
f ( 0)
0.5 (1 0.5)

(1)(0.125) 1 0.125 0.125

0!(3 0)!
1 3 2 1
f ( 2)

Combinations and permutations

Permutations the number of ways of
arranging N objects, taken n at a time,
where the order of the objects is taken into
account, is: N
N!
N

n!C n

( N n)!

N
n

Where
is the number of possible
combinations of N objects, taken n at a
time, where theNorderN !of the objects does
not matter. C n n!( N n)!

Rationale for the binomial

formula

Probability of x successes and (n-x) failures is

p p p ... p (1 p) (1 p) (1 p) ... (1 p)
x times

n x times

This is x
and represents the probability
n x
(1 p) sequence of x successes and (nof anypparticular
x) failures.
n
And there areC x ways of arranging these x
successes and (n-x) failures. To obtain the
probability of x successes in n trials, multiply the
probability of any particular sequence by this
combination.

Example selection of Saskatchewan

workers, classified by years of education and
wages and salaries
From all these workers, randomly select 13 workers
with 14-17 years of education. What is the
probability that exactly 8 of these will have incomes
of $45,000 or more? Probability of 8 or more?
A random sample from a large population means that
successive selections are independent of each
other. There are n = 13 workers selected. If
success is defined as the probability of selecting a
worker with an income of $45,000 or more, the
probability of success p = 82/230 = 0.357.
Probability of 8 with $45,000 or more income =
0.0373. See the following slides for the calculation.

Using the formula

13!
13 12 11 10 9 8!
0.3578 (1 0.357) (138)
(0.000263843)(0.109914469) 0.037323
8!(13 8)!
8!5 4 3 2 1
13!
13 12 11 10 9!
f (9)
0.357 9 (1 0.357) (139)
(0.000094192)(0.170940076) 0.011512347
9!(13 9)!
9!4 3 2 1
13!
13 12 11 10!
f (10)
0.35710 (1 0.357) (1310 )
(0.000033627)(0.265847707) 0.002556743
10!(13 10)!
10!3 2 1
13!
13 12 11!
f (11)
0.35711 (1 0.357) (1311)
(0.000012005)(0.413449) 0.000387139
11!(13 11)!
11!2 1
13!
13 12!
f (12)
0.35712 (1 0.357) (1312 )
(0.000004286)(0.643) 0.000035827
12!(13 12)!
12!1
13!
13!
f (13)
0.35713 (1 0.357) (1313)
(0.00000153)(1) 0.00000154
13!(13 13)!
13!0!
f (8)

Using the formula

13!
13 12 11 10 9 8!
0.3578 (1 0.357) (138)
(0.000263843)(0.109914469) 0.037323
8!(13 8)!
8!5 4 3 2 1
13!
13 12 11 10 9!
f (9)
0.357 9 (1 0.357) (139)
(0.000094192)(0.170940076) 0.011512347
9!(13 9)!
9!4 3 2 1
13!
13 12 11 10!
f (10)
0.35710 (1 0.357) (1310 )
(0.000033627)(0.265847707) 0.002556743
10!(13 10)!
10!3 2 1
13!
13 12 11!
f (11)
0.35711 (1 0.357) (1311)
(0.000012005)(0.413449) 0.000387139
11!(13 11)!
11!2 1
13!
13 12!
f (12)
0.35712 (1 0.357) (1312 )
(0.000004286)(0.643) 0.000035827
12!(13 12)!
12!1
13!
13!
f (13)
0.35713 (1 0.357) (1313)
(0.00000153)(1) 0.00000154
13!(13 13)!
13!0!
f (8)

Probabilities to 4 decimal
places
Number of
successes
(x)

Probability
of x or f(x)

0.0373

0.0115

10

0.0026

11

0.0004

12

0.0000

13
0.0000
The probability of 8 or more successes is the sum of the
probabilities of 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, or 13 successes. This is
0.0373 + 0.0115 + 0.0026 + 0.0004 + 0.0000 + 0.0000 =
0.0518.

Other Examples
1. Roll a die 3 times. X=# of sixes.
S=a six, N=not a six
No six: (x=0)
NNN (5/6)(5/6)(5/6)
One six: (x=1)
NNS (5/6)(5/6)(1/6)
NSN same
SNN same
Two sixes: (x=2)
NSS (5/6)(1/6)(1/6)
SNS same
SSN same
Three sixes: (x=3)
SSS (1/6)(1/6)(1/6)

 Binomial distribution
x
0
1
2
3

f(x)
(5/6)3
3(1/6)(5/6)2
3(1/6)2(5/6)
(1/6)3

3
f ( x)
x

1 5

6 6

3 x

2. Toss a die 5 times. X=# of sixes.Find P(X=2)

S=six
N=not a six
SSNNN
1/6*1/6*5/6*5/6*5/6=(1/6)2(5/6)3
SNSNN
1/6*5/6*1/6*5/6*5/6=(1/6)2(5/6)3
SNNSN
1/6*5/6*5/6*1/6*5/6=(1/6)2(5/6)3
SNNNS
10 ways to choose 2 of 5 places for S.
NSSNN
etc.
__ __ __ __ __
NSNSN
5
5!
5!
5 * 4 * 3!
2 2!(5 2)! 2!3! 2 *1* 3! 10

NSNNs
NNSSN
2
3
NNSNS P( x 2) 10 * 1 5
6 6
NNNSS
[1-P(S)]5 - # of S
[P(S)]# of

3. Roll a die 20 times. X=# of 6s,

n=20, p=1/6
x
20 x
20
1 5
f ( x)
x 6 6
20
p( x 4)
4

1 5

6 6

16

4. Flip a fair coin 10 times. X=# of heads

f ( x)

10 1 x 1

x 2 2

10 x

10 1

x 2

10

5. Pumpkin seeds germinate with

probability
0.93. Plant n=50 seeds
X= # of seeds germinating
50
0.93 x 0.07 50 x
f ( x )
x
50
0.93 48 0.07 2
P ( X 48)
48

Sometimes you have to use

the Binomial Formula
n x ( n x )
P ( X x) p q
,
x
where
q 1 p

6.

Eggs are packed in boxes of 12. The probability

that each egg is broken is 0.35
Find the probability in a random box of eggs:
there are 4 broken eggs

12
P ( X 4) 0.354 0.65(124 ) 495 0.354 0.658
4
0.235 to 3 significant figures

Population Parameters of a Binomial

Distribution
Mean:

E(x)= = np

Expected value

Variance: 2 = npq
Standard Deviation:

= npq

Finding Mean, Variance and Standard

Deviation
7. In Pittsburgh, 57% of the days in a year are
cloudy. Find the mean, variance, and standard
deviation for the number of cloudy days during
the month of June. What can you conclude?
Solution: There are 30 days in June. Using n=30, p
= 0.57, and q = 0.43, you can find the mean
variance and standard deviation as shown.
Mean: = np = 30(0.57) = 17.1
Variance: 2 = npq = 30(0.57)(0.43) = 7.353
Standard Deviation: = npq = 7.353 2.71