Introduction

to
Statistics
Dr. P Murphy

Why study Statistics?

We like to think that we have
control over our lives.
But in reality there are many
things that are outside our
control.
Everyday we are confronted
by our own ignorance.
According to Albert Einstein:
God does not play dice.
But we all should know
better than Prof. Einstein.
The world is governed by
Quantum Mechanics where
Probability reigns supreme.

Consider a day in the

life of an average
UCD student.
You wake up in the morning
and the sunlight hits your
eyes. Then suddenly without
warning the world becomes
an uncertain place.
How long will you have to
wait for the Number 10 Bus
this morning?
When it arrives will it be
full?
Will it be out of service?
Will it be raining while you
wait?

Probability
is the
Science of Uncertainty.
It is used by Physicists to
predict the behaviour of
elementary particles.
It is used by engineers to
build computers.
It is used by economists to
predict the behaviour of the
economy.
It is used by stockbrokers
to make money on the
stockmarket.
It is used by psychologists
to determine if you should

What about
Statistics?
Statistics is the Science of
Data.
The Statistics you have
seen before has been
probably been Descriptive
Statistics.
And Descriptive Statistics
made you feel like this .

What is
Inferential Statistics?
It is a discipline that allows
us to estimate unknown
quantities by making some
elementary measurements.
Using these estimates we
can then
make Predictions and
Forecast the Future

Chapter 1
Probability

Consider
a Real Problem
Can

you make money

playing the Lottery?
Let us calculate chances of
winning.
To do this we need to learn
some basic rules about
probability.
These rules are mainly just
ways of formalising basic
common sense .
Example: What are the
chances that you get a HEAD
when you toss a coin?

1.1 Experiments
An Experiment leads to a
single outcome which
cannot be predicted with
certainty.
ExamplesToss a coin:
head or tail
Roll a die:
1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6
Take medicine: worse,
same, better

Set of all outcomes Sample Space.

1.2 Probability
The Probability of an
outcome is a number
between 0 and 1 that
measures the likelihood
that the outcome will
occur when the
experiment is performed.
(0=impossible, 1=certain).
Probabilities of all sample
points must sum to 1.

Long run relative

frequency interpretation.

1.3 Events
An event is a specific
collection of sample
points.
The probability of an
event A is calculated by
summing the probabilities
of the outcomes in the
sample space for A.

1.4 Steps for

calculating
Probailities
Define

the experiment.
List the sample points.
Assign probabilities to the
sample points.
Determine the collection of
sample points contained in
the event of interest.
Sum the sample point
probabilities to get the event
probability.

Example:
THE GAME Of
CRAPS

In Craps one rolls two fair dice.

What is the probability of the
sum of the two dice showing 7?

(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)

(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
(3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
(1,6)
(2,5)
(3,4)
(4,3)
(5,2)
(6,1)

1.5 Equally likely

outcomes
So the Probability of 7 when
rolling two dice is 1/6
This example illustrates the
following rule:
In a Sample Space S of equally
likely outcomes. The
probability of the event A is
given by
P(A) = #A / #S
That is the number of outcomes
in A divided by the total number
of events in S.

1.6 Sets
A compound event is a
composition of two or more
other events.
AC: The Complement of A is
the event that A does not
occur
AB : The Union of two
events A and B is the event
that occurs if either A or B
or both occur, it consists of
all sample points that
belong to A or B or both.
AB: The Intersection of

1.7 Basic
Probability Rules
P(Ac)=1-P(A)
P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)-P(AB)
Mutually Exclusive Events are
events which cannot occur at
the same time.
P(AB)=0 for Mutually
Exclusive Events.

1.8 Conditional
Probability
P(A | B) ~ Probability of A
occuring given that B has
occurred.
P(A | B) = P(AB) / P(B)
Multiplicative Rule:
P(AB)
= P(A|B)P(B)
= P(B|A)P(A)

1.9 Independent
Events
A and B are independent events
if the occurrence of one event
does not affect the probability
of the othe event.
If A and B are independent then
P(A|B)=P(A)
P(B|A)=P(B)
P(AB)=P(A)P(B)

Chapter 1
Probability
EXAMPLES

Probability as
a matter of
life and death

Positive Test for Disease

1 in every 10000 people in Ireland
suffer from AIDS
There is a test for HIV/AIDS
which is 95% accurate.
You are not feeling well and you
go to hospital where your
Physician tests you.
He says you are positive for AIDS
and tells you that you have 18
months to live.
How should you react?

Positive Test for Disease

Let D be the event that you
have AIDS
Let T be the event that you test
positive for AIDS
P(D)=0.0001
P(T|D)=0.95
P(D|T)=?

Positive Test for Disease

P ( D T )
P( D | T )
P (T )
P (T | D ) P ( D )

C
P ({T D} {T D})
P (T | D ) P ( D )

P (T D ) P (T D C )
P(T | D ) P ( D )

C
C
P (T | D ) P ( D ) P (T | D ) P( D )
(0.95)(0.0001)

(0.95)(0.0001) (0.05)(0.9999)

0.001897

Chapter 1
Examples
Example 1.1
S={A,B,C}
P(A) =
P(B) = 1/3
P(C) = 1/6
What is P({A,B})?
What is P({A,B,C})?
List all events Q such that
P(Q) = .

Chapter 1
Examples
Example 1.2
Suppose that a lecturer arrives
late to class 10% of the time,
leaves early 20% of the time
and both arrives late AND
leaves early 5% of the time.
On a given day what is the
probability that on a given day
that lecturer will either arrive
late or leave early?

Chapter 1
Examples
Example 1.3
Suppose you are dealt 5 cards
from a deck of 52 playing cards.
Find the probability of the
following events
1. All four aces and the king of
spades
2. All 5 cards are spades
3. All 5 cards are different
4. A Full House (3 same, 2
same)

Chapter 1
Examples
Example 1.4
The Birthday Problem
Suppose there are N people in a
room.
How large should N be so that
there is a more than 50% chance
that at least two people in the
room have the same birthday?

Number in Room Prob at least 2 have same birthday

1
0.00
2
0.00
3
0.01
4
0.02
5
0.03
6
0.04
7
0.06
8
0.07
9
0.09
10
0.12
11
0.14
12
0.17
13
0.19
14
0.22
15
0.25
16
0.28
17
0.32
18
0.35
19
0.38
20
0.41
21
0.44
22
0.48
23
0.51
24
0.54
25
0.57
26
0.60
27
0.63
28
0.65
29
0.68
30
0.71
31
0.73
32
0.75
33
0.77
34
0.80
35
0.81
36
0.83
37
0.85
38
0.86
39
0.88
40
0.89
41
0.90
42
0.91
43
0.92
44
0.93
45
0.94
46
0.95
47
0.95
48
0.96
49
0.97
50
0.97
51
0.97
52
0.98
53
0.98
54
0.98
55
0.99
56
0.99
57
0.99

Chapter 1
Examples
Example 1.4
Children are born equally likely
as Boys or Girls
My brother has two children
(not twins)
One of his children is a boy
named Luke
What is the probability that his
other child is a girl?

Example 1.5
The Monty Hall Problem
Game Show
3 doors
1 Car & 2 Goats
You pick a door - e.g. #1
Host knows whats behind all
the doors and he opens another
door, say #3, and shows you a
goat
He then asks if you want to
stick with your original choice
#1, or change to door #2?

Ask Marilyn.
Parade Magazine Sept 9 1990

Marilyn vos Savant

Guinness Book of Records
-Highest IQ
Yes you should switch. The
first door has a 1/3 chance of
winning while the second has a
2/3 chance of winning.
Ph.D.s - Now two doors, 1 goat
& 1 car so chances of winning
are 1/2 for door #1 and 1/2 for
door #2.
You are the goat - Western
State University.

Whos right?

At the start, the sample space is:

{CGG, GCG, GGC}

Pick a door e.g. #1

1 in 3 chance of winning

Host shows you a goat so now

{ C GG, GC G, GG C }

So Marilyn was right, you should

switch.

Not convinced?
Imagine a game with 100 doors.
1 F430 Ferrari, 99 Goats.
You pick a door.
Host opens 98 of the 99 other
doors.
Do you stick with your original
choice? Prob = 1/100
Or move to the unopened door.
Prob = 99/100

Boys, Girls
and Monty Hall
Sample Space ( listing oldest child
first)
{GG, BG, GB, BB}
Equally likely events

One child is a boy:

GG is impossible
{BG, GB, BB} =>
P(OC = G) = 2/3

Luke is 6 months old.

{GB, BB} => P(OC = G) = 1/2

Odd Socks

It is winter and the ESB

are on strike. This
morning when you woke
up it was dark. In your
sock drawer there was
one pair of two black
socks and one odd brown
one.

EXAMS
Campus

Female
Male
Pass Rate Pass Rate

Belfield

40%

33%

ET/
75%
Carysfort
etc.

71%

Seeing this evidence

amale student takes
UCD to court saying
there is discimination
against male students.
UCD gathers all its
exam information

EXAM
Pass Rates
Overall Female pass rate
is 56%
Overall Male pass rate is
60%
HOW
CAN
THIS
BE?
Campus Female
Male

Pass Rate
Pass are
Rate LYING
Clearly UCD
!
Belfield

40%

33%

ET/
75%
Carysfort
etc.

71%

Simpsons
Paradox
Overall Female pass rate
is 56%
Overall Male pass rate is
Campus
Female
Male
60%
Pass Rate Pass Rate

Belfield

40%
= 20/50

33%
= 10/30

ET/
30/40
Carysfort =75%
etc.
50/90
= 56%

50/70
= 71%
60/100
=60%

Hit and RUN

Once upon a time in
Hicksville, USA there was
a night-time hit and run
accident involving a taxi.
There are two taxi
companies in Hicksville,
Green and Blue. 85% of
taxis are Green and 15%
are Blue. A witness
identified the taxi as
being Blue. In the
subsequent court case the
judge ordered that the
witnesss observation
under the conditions that

Hit and RUN

What is the probability
that it was indeed a blue
taxi that was involved in
the accident?

DNA
You are holiday in Belfast
and an explosion destroys
the Odessey arena.
You are seen running from
the explosion and are
arrested.
You are subsequently
charged with being a
member of a prescribed
paramilitary organisation
and with causing the
explosion.
In court you protest your

DNA
Their forensic scientist
delivers the following vital
evidence.
The forensic scientist
indicates that DNA found
on the bomb matches
your DNA.
Your lawyer at first
disputes this evidence and
hires an independent
scientist.
However the second
forensic scientist also says

DNA

What do you do?

It appears as if you are

going to spend the rest of
your days in jail.

The National
Lottery

I lied, cheated and stole to

become a millionaire. Now
anybody at all can win the
lottery and become a
millionaire

GAME #1: LOTTO 6/42

What are the chance of winning

with one selection of 6 numbers?
Matches Chances of Winning

6
5

1 in 5,245,786
1 in 24,286

1 in 555

GAME #1: LOTTO 6/42

Expected Winnings
Only consider Jackpot
1 Euro get 1 play
E(win)= Jackpot*(1/5,245,786)
1Euro*(5,245,785/5,245,786)
E(win)=
Jackpot*0.0000001910.999999809
If only one jackpot winner then:
Positive E(win) if
Jackpot >5,245,785

LOTTO 6/42

The average time to win each of the prizes is

given by:

Match 3 with Bonus

2 Years, 6 Weeks

Match 4

2 Years, 8 Months

Match 5

116 Years, 9 Months

Match 5 with Bonus 4323 Years, 5 Months

Share in Jackpot

25,220 Years

Tossing a fair coin

Tossing a coin!

You are joking!

That is boring no question about it!

1957 Second edition of William Fellers

Textbook includes a chapter on cointossing.

Introduction: The results concerning

coin-tossing show that widely held
beliefs are fallacious. These results
are so amazing and so at variance with
common intuition that even
sophisticated colleagues doubted that
coins actually misbehave as theory
predicts.

Tossing a coin!

Toss a coin 2N times.

Law of Averages:
As N increases the chances that
there are equal numbers of heads
and tails among the 2N tosses
increases.
Lim N-> P( #H = #T ) = 1.
In the limit as N tends to infinity
the probability of matching
numbers of heads and tails
approaches 1.

Rosencrantz
and
Guildenstern
are Dead

Prob of equal
numbers of H and T
# of
2 4
tosses

Prob

3/8

5/16

35/128 63/256

0.5 0.375 0.3125 0.273

10

0.246