Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
4-1
Outline
What Is Forecasting?
The Strategic Importance of
Forecasting
Seven Steps in the Forecasting
System
Forecasting Approaches
4-2
Outline - Continued
Time-Series Forecasting
Associative Forecasting Methods:
Regression and Correlation Analysis
Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts
Forecasting in the Service Sector
4-3
Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter you
should be able to :
1. Understand the three time horizons and
which models apply for each use
2. Explain when to use each of the four
qualitative models
3. Apply the naive, moving average,
exponential smoothing, and trend
methods
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4-4
Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter you
should be able to :
4. Compute three measures of forecast
accuracy
5. Develop seasonal indices
6. Conduct a regression and correlation
analysis
7. Use a tracking signal
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4-5
What is Forecasting?
Process of predicting a
future event
Underlying basis
of all business
decisions
??
Production
Inventory
Personnel
Facilities
4-6
2. Medium-range forecast
3 months to 3 years
3. Long-range forecast
3+ years
4-7
Distinguishing Differences
1. Medium/long range forecasts deal with more
comprehensive issues and support
management decisions regarding planning
and products, plants and processes
2. Short-term forecasting usually employs
different methodologies than longer-term
forecasting
3. Short-term forecasts tend to be more
accurate than longer-term forecasts
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4-8
Staffing levels
Inventory levels
Factory capacity
4-9
Types of Forecasts
1. Economic forecasts
2. Technological forecasts
3. Demand forecasts
4 - 10
4 - 11
The Realities!
4 - 12
Forecasting Approaches
Qualitative Methods
New products
New technology
4 - 13
Forecasting Approaches
Quantitative Methods
Existing products
Current technology
4 - 14
Overview of Qualitative
Methods
1. Jury of executive opinion
2. Delphi method
4 - 15
Overview of Qualitative
Methods
3. Sales force composite
4. Market Survey
4 - 16
Relatively quick
Group-think
disadvantage
4 - 17
Delphi Method
Iterative group
process, continues
until consensus is
reached
3 types of
participants
Staff
(Administering
survey)
Decision makers
Staff
Respondents
Decision Makers
(Evaluate responses
and make decisions)
Respondents
(People who can make
valuable judgments)
4 - 18
4 - 19
Market Survey
4 - 20
Overview of Quantitative
Approaches
1. Naive approach
2. Moving averages
3. Exponential
smoothing
4. Trend projection
5. Linear regression
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Time-series
models
Associative
model
4 - 21
Time-Series Forecasting
4 - 22
Time-Series Components
Trend
Cyclical
Seasonal
Random
4 - 23
Components of Demand
Demand for product or service
Trend
component
Seasonal peaks
Actual demand
line
Average demand
over 4 years
|
1
Random variation
|
|
2
3
Time (years)
|
4
Figure 4.1
4 - 24
Trend Component
4 - 25
Seasonal Component
PERIOD LENGTH
SEASON LENGTH
Week
Day
Month
Week
4 4.5
Month
Day
28 31
Year
Quarter
Year
Month
12
Year
Week
52
4 - 26
Cyclical Component
Often causal or
associative
relationships
0
10
15
20
4 - 27
Random Component
Short duration
and nonrepeating
M
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T
F
T
4 - 28
Naive Approach
4 - 29
Moving average
n
4 - 30
January
10
March
12
12
13
13
April
16
May
19
June
23
July
26
February
August
30
September
28
October
18
2014
Pearson Education, Inc.
November
16
(13 + 16 + 19)/3 = 16
(16 + 19 + 23)/3 = 19 1/3
(29 + 30 + 28)/3 = 28
(30 + 28 + 18)/3 = 25 1/3
(28 + 18 + 16)/3 = 20 2/3
4 - 31
4 - 32
January
10
February
March
April
12
12
13
13
16
WEIGHTS APPLIED
PERIOD
May
19
Last month
June
23
July
26
August
30
September
28this month =
Forecast for
January
10
March
12
12
13
13
April
16
May
19
June
23
July
26
February
August
30
September
28
October
18
2014
Pearson Education, Inc.
November
16
4 - 34
4 - 35
30
Sales demand
25
20
15
Actual sales
10
Moving average
5
|
J
|
F
Figure 4.2
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
|
M
|
A
|
M
|
J
|
J
|
A
|
S
|
O
|
N
|
D
Month
4 - 36
Exponential Smoothing
Ranges from 0 to 1
Subjectively chosen
4 - 37
Exponential Smoothing
New forecast = Last periods forecast
+ (Last periods actual demand
Last periods forecast)
Ft = Ft 1 + (At 1 - Ft 1)
where
Ft =
new forecast
Ft 1 =
=
At 1 =
4 - 38
4 - 39
4 - 40
Effect of
Smoothing Constants
Smoothing constant generally .05 .50
As increases, older values become less
significant
WEIGHT ASSIGNED TO
SMOOTHING
CONSTANT
MOST
RECENT
PERIOD
( )
2ND MOST
RECENT
PERIOD
(1 )
3RD MOST
RECENT
PERIOD
(1 )2
4th MOST
RECENT
PERIOD
(1 )3
5th MOST
RECENT
PERIOD
(1 )4
= .1
.1
.09
.081
.073
.066
= .5
.5
.25
.125
.063
.031
4 - 42
Impact of Different
225
Demand
200
= .5
Actual
demand
175
150
= .1
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
Quarter
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 43
Impact of Different
225
200
Choose high
of
when underlying average
175
is likely to change
Choose low values of
150
when
underlying average
is stable
|
|
|
|
|
Demand
= .5
Actual
demand
values
= .1
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
Quarter
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 44
Choosing
The objective is to obtain the most
accurate forecast no matter the
technique
We generally do this by selecting the
model that gives us the lowest forecast
error
Forecast error = Actual demand Forecast value
= At Ft
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 45
MAD
n
4 - 46
ACTUAL
TONNAGE
UNLOADED
180
175
175
168
177.50
159
172.75
175
165.88
190
170.44
205
180.22
180
192.61
182
186.30
184.15
FORECAST WITH
= .50
4 - 47
QUARTER
1
180
175
5.00
175
5.00
168
175.50
7.50
177.50
9.50
159
174.75
15.75
172.75
13.75
175
173.18
1.82
165.88
9.12
190
173.36
16.64
170.44
19.56
205
175.02
29.98
180.22
24.78
180
178.02
1.98
192.61
12.61
182
178.22
3.78
186.30
4.30
MAD =
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
|Deviations|
n
ABSOLUTE
DEVIATION
FOR a = .10
FORECAST
WITH
= .50
ACTUAL
TONNAGE
UNLOADED
ABSOLUTE
DEVIATION
FOR a = .50
82.45
98.62
10.31
12.33
4 - 48
MSE
4 - 49
ACTUAL
TONNAGE
UNLOADED
180
175
168
175.50
(7.5)2 = 56.25
159
174.75
(15.75)2 = 248.06
175
173.18
(1.82)2 = 3.31
190
173.36
(16.64)2 = 276.89
205
175.02
(29.98)2 = 898.80
180
178.02
(1.98)2 = 3.92
FORECAST FOR
= .10
Forecast errors
MSE
182
178.22
(ERROR)2
52 = 25
(3.78)2 = 14.29
of errors squared
1,526.52
Sum
1,526.52
/ 8 =190.8
4 - 50
MAPE
/ Actuali
i1
4 - 51
ACTUAL
TONNAGE
UNLOADED
FORECAST FOR
= .10
180
175.00
100(5/180) = 2.78%
168
175.50
100(7.5/168) = 4.46%
159
174.75
100(15.75/159) = 9.90%
175
173.18
100(1.82/175) = 1.05%
190
173.36
100(16.64/190) = 8.76%
205
175.02
100(29.98/205) = 14.62%
180
178.02
100(1.98/180) = 1.10%
MAPE
5.59%
8
182
178.22
100(3.78/182) = 2.08%
4 - 52
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Actual
Tonnage
Unloaded
180
168
159
175
190
205
180
182
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .10
175
175.5
174.75
173.18
173.36
175.02
178.02
178.22
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .10
5.00
7.50
15.75
1.82
16.64
29.98
1.98
3.78
82.45
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .50
175
177.50
172.75
165.88
170.44
180.22
192.61
186.30
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5.00
9.50
13.75
9.12
19.56
24.78
12.61
4.30
98.62
4 - 53
Quarter
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Unloaded
a = .10
a = .10
5.00
For 180
= .10 175
168
175.5
7.50
159 = 82.45/8
174.75 = 10.31
15.75
For
175
173.18
190
= .50 173.36
205 = 98.62/8
175.02
180
178.02
182
178.22
1.82
16.64
29.98
12.33
1.98
3.78
82.45
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .50
175
177.50
172.75
165.88
170.44
180.22
192.61
186.30
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5.00
9.50
13.75
9.12
19.56
24.78
12.61
4.30
98.62
4 - 54
Quarter
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Unloaded
a = .10
a = .10
5.00
For 180
= .10 175
168
175.5
7.50
= 1,526.54/8
159
174.75 = 190.82
15.75
For
175
173.18
190
= .50 173.36
205
175.02
= 1,561.91/8
180
178.02
182
178.22
MAD
1.82
16.64
29.98
195.24
1.98
3.78
82.45
10.31
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .50
175
177.50
172.75
165.88
170.44
180.22
192.61
186.30
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5.00
9.50
13.75
9.12
19.56
24.78
12.61
4.30
98.62
12.33
4 - 55
n
Comparison
of Forecast Error
100|deviationi|/actuali
i=1
Actual
MAPE =
Tonnage
Quarter
Unloaded
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Rounded
Forecast
with n
a = .10
Absolute
Deviation
for
a = .10
5.00
For 180
= .10 175
168
175.5
7.50
= 44.75/8
=15.75
5.59%
159
174.75
For
175
=
190
205
180
182
173.18
1.82
.50 173.36
16.64
175.02
= 54.05/8
=29.98
6.76%
178.02
1.98
178.22
3.78
82.45
MAD
10.31
MSE
190.82
Rounded
Forecast
with
a = .50
175
177.50
172.75
165.88
170.44
180.22
192.61
186.30
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5.00
9.50
13.75
9.12
19.56
24.78
12.61
4.30
98.62
12.33
195.24
4 - 56
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Actual
Tonnage
Unloaded
180
168
159
175
190
205
180
182
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .10
175
175.5
174.75
173.18
173.36
175.02
178.02
178.22
MAD
MSE
MAPE
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .10
5.00
7.50
15.75
1.82
16.64
29.98
1.98
3.78
82.45
10.31
190.82
5.59%
Rounded
Forecast
with
= .50
175
177.50
172.75
165.88
170.44
180.22
192.61
186.30
Absolute
Deviation
for
= .50
5.00
9.50
13.75
9.12
19.56
24.78
12.61
4.30
98.62
12.33
195.24
6.76%
4 - 57
Trend Projections
Fitting a trend line to historical data points to
project into the medium to long-range
Linear trends can be found using the least
squares technique
^y = a + bx
^
Deviation7
Deviation5
Deviation3
Deviation1
(error)
Deviation2
Trend line, ^y = a + bx
Time period
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Deviation6
Figure 4.4
4 - 59
a bx
y
xy nxy
b
x nx
2
a y bx
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 60
ELECTRICAL
POWER DEMAND
YEAR
ELECTRICAL
POWER DEMAND
74
105
79
142
80
122
90
4 - 61
ELECTRICAL POWER
DEMAND (y)
x2
xy
74
74
79
158
80
240
90
16
360
105
25
525
142
36
852
1
2
3
4
5
x 28
122
x
7
x = 28
y = 692
y 692
4998.86
n
x2 = 140
854
xy = 3,063
4 - 62
ELECTRICAL
b
POWER
10.54
DEMAND
(y)
x
xy
28
140 7 4
x nx
2
74
74
a y bx 98.8679
10.54 4 56.70
158
80
240
16
360
105
25
525
142
36
852
Thus,
90
y 56.70 10.54x
4
5
x 28
y+ 10.54(8)
Demand
in year 8 = 56.70
692
122
x
4
y
4998.86
=
141.02,
or
141
megawatts
n
7
n
7
6
7
x = 28
y = 692
x2 = 140
854
xy = 3,063
4 - 63
Trend line,
^y = 56.70 + 10.54x
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
Year
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
Figure 4.5
4 - 64
4 - 65
The multiplicative
seasonal model can
adjust trend data for
seasonal variations
in demand
4 - 66
4 - 67
MONTH
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
Jan
80
85
105
Feb
70
85
85
Mar
80
93
82
AVERAGE
YEARLY
DEMAND
90
AVERAGE
MONTHLY
DEMAND
SEASONAL
INDEX
80
85
100
123
Apr
90
95
115
115
May
113
125
131
105
June
110
115
120
July
100
102
113
Aug
88
102
110
Sept
85
90
95
Total average annual demand =
77
Oct
2014 Pearson Education,
Inc. 78
85
100
90
80
80
80
1,128
4 - 68
MONTH
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
AVERAGE
YEARLY
DEMAND
AVERAGE
MONTHLY
DEMAND
Jan
80
85
105
90
94
Feb
70
85
85
80
94
85
94
100
94
Mar
Apr
Average
80
93 1,12882
= 94
monthly =
12 months
90
95
115
demand
May
113
125
131
123
94
June
110
115
120
115
94
July
100
102
113
105
94
Aug
88
102
110
100
94
Sept
85
90
95
90
94
77
Oct
2014 Pearson Education,
Inc. 78
85
80
94
SEASONAL
INDEX
4 - 69
MONTH
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
AVERAGE
YEARLY
DEMAND
AVERAGE
MONTHLY
DEMAND
Jan
80
85
105
90
94
Feb
70
85
85
80
94
Mar
80
93
82
85
94
Apr
90
SEASONAL
INDEX
.957( = 90/94)
95
115
100
94
Average
monthly
demand
for
past
3
years
Seasonal =
May index 113
125 Average
131
123 demand 94
monthly
June
110
115
120
115
94
July
100
102
113
105
94
Aug
88
102
110
100
94
Sept
85
90
95
90
94
77
Oct
2014 Pearson Education,
Inc. 78
85
80
94
4 - 70
MONTH
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
AVERAGE
YEARLY
DEMAND
AVERAGE
MONTHLY
DEMAND
SEASONAL
INDEX
Jan
80
85
105
90
94
.957( = 90/94)
Feb
70
85
85
80
94
.851( = 80/94)
Mar
80
93
82
85
94
.904( = 85/94)
Apr
90
95
115
100
94
1.064( = 100/94)
May
113
125
131
123
94
1.309( = 123/94)
June
110
115
120
115
94
1.223( = 115/94)
July
100
102
113
105
94
1.117( = 105/94)
Aug
88
102
110
100
94
1.064( = 100/94)
Sept
85
90
95
90
94
.957( = 90/94)
77
Oct
2014 Pearson Education,
Inc. 78
85
80
94
.851(4=- 71
80/94)
DEMAND
1,200
12
Feb
1,200
12
Mar
1,200
12
Apr
1,200
12
May
1,200
12
MONTH
July
x .957 = 96
1,200
12
Aug
x .851 = 85
1,200
12
Sept
x .904 = 90
1,200
12
Oct
x 1.064 = 106
1,200
12
Nov
x 1.309 = 131
DEMAND
1,200
12
x 1.117 = 112
x 1.064 = 106
x .957 = 96
x .851 = 85
x .851 = 85
4 - 72
140
130
Demand
120
110
100
90
80
70
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J
|
F
|
M
|
A
|
M
|
J
|
J
|
A
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S
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O
|
N
|
D
Time
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 73
Figure 4.6
10,200
Inpatient Days
10,000
9,800
9,600
9,400
9573
9530
9551
9659
9616
9594
9637
9745
9702
9680
9724
9766
9,200
9,000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Month
4 - 74
SEASONALITY INDEX
January
1.04
July
1.03
February
0.97
August
1.04
March
1.02
September
0.97
April
1.01
October
1.00
May
0.99
November
0.96
June
0.99
December
0.98
MONTH
SEASONALITY INDEX
4 - 75
Seasonal Indices
1.06
1.04 1.04
1.02
1.02
1.00
1.01
1.00
0.99
0.98
0.96
1.03
0.98
0.99
0.97
0.97
0.94
0.92
1.04
0.96
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Month
4 - 76
67
68
69
70
71
72
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
9,911
9,265
9,164
9,691
9,520
9,542
Period
73
74
75
76
77
78
Month
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
9,949
10,068
9,411
9,724
9,355
9,572
Forecast with
Trend &
Seasonality
Forecast with
Trend &
Seasonality
4 - 77
Inpatient Days
10,000
10068
9949
9911
9,800
9764
9,600
9572
9,400
9,200
9,000
9724
9691
9520 9542
9411
9265
9355
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78
Month
4 - 78
I (1.30)($100,000) $130,000
y
Quarter II:
II (.90)($120,000) $108,000
y
Quarter III: y
III (.70)($140,000) $98,000
Quarter IV: y
(1.10)($160,000) $176,000
IV
4 - 79
Associative Forecasting
Used when changes in one or more independent
variables can be used to predict the changes in
the dependent variable
Most common technique is linear
regression analysis
We apply this technique just as we did
in the time-series example
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 80
Associative Forecasting
Forecasting an outcome based on predictor
variables using the least squares technique
^
y = a + bx
4 - 81
Associative Forecasting
Example
NODELS SALES
(IN $ MILLIONS), y
AREA PAYROLL
(IN $ BILLIONS), x
NODELS SALES
(IN $ MILLIONS), y
AREA PAYROLL
(IN $ BILLIONS), x
2.0
2.0
3.0
2.0
2.5
3.5
Nodels sales
(in$ millions)
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
4 - 82
Associative Forecasting
Example
SALES, y
PAYROLL, x
xy
2.0
2.0
3.0
9.0
2.5
16
10.0
2.0
4.0
2.0
2.0
3.5
49
24.5
y = 15.0
x 18
x x = 18 3
6
6
y 15
yx
2 = 80 2.5 xy =
6
6
.25
80 (6)(3 )
x nx
2
x2
51.5
Associative Forecasting
Example
SALES, y
PAYROLL, x
xy
2.0
2.0
3.0
1.75
y
.25x
9
2.5
16 .25(payroll)
10.0
Sales 1.75
2.0
4.0
2.0
2.0
3.5
49
24.5
y = 15.0
x 18
x x = 18 3
6
6
y 15
yx
2 = 80 2.5 xy =
6
6
.25
80 (6)(3 )
x nx
2
x2
9.0
51.5
Associative Forecasting
Example
SALES, y
PAYROLL, x
xy
2.0
3.0 3.0
1.75
y
.25x
9
2.5
16 .25(payroll)
10.0
Sales 1.75
Nodels sales
(in$ millions)
2.0 4.0
2.0
2.0
3.5
y = 15.0
2.0
1.0
4.0
2.0
7|
49
|
|
|
|
|
y 5 15 6
0 x1 18 2
3
4
7
2
=
80 2.5 xy =
x x = 18Area
3 payroll
yx
(in
6
6
6$ billions)
6
9.0
.25
80 (6)(3 )
x nx
2
x2
24.5
51.5
Associative Forecasting
Example
If payroll next year is estimated to be $6 billion,
then:
4 - 86
Associative Forecasting
Example
4.0
Nodels sales
(in$ millions)
1.0 (in$
Sales
millions) = 1.75 + .25(6)
= 1.75 + 1.5 = 3.25
|
2
3
4
5
6
Sales
= $3,250,000
Area payroll
(in $ billions)
4 - 87
This point is
actually the
mean of a
probability
distribution
Nodels sales
(in$ millions)
4.0
3.0
3.25
y 1.75 .25x
1.0
Figure 4.9
Regression line,
2.0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
4 - 88
2
(
y
y
)
n 2
4 - 89
Sy,x
2
y
a y b xy
n 2
4 - 90
2
y
a y b xy
n 2
62
.09375
.306 (in $ millions)
Nodels sales
(in$ millions)
4.0
3.0
3.25
2.0
1.0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
4 - 91
Correlation
4 - 92
Correlation Coefficient
r
n xy x y
n x
n y
2
4 - 93
Correlation Coefficient
Figure 4.10
x
(a) Perfect negative
correlation
x
(c) No correlation
High
1.0
Moderate
0.8
0.6
Low
Low
Moderate
0.4
0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficient values
0.6
0.8
High
1.0
4 - 94
Correlation Coefficient
y
y =
x2
xy
y2
2.0
2.0
4.0
3.0
9.0
9.0
2.5
16
10.0
6.25
2.0
4.0
4.0
2.0
2.0
4.0
3.5
49
24.5
12.25
15.0
r x =
(6)(51.5) (18)(15.0)
18
x = 80
xy = 51.5
(6)(80) (18) 2 (16)(39.5) (15.0) 2
309 270
(156)(12)
39
1,872
y2 =
39.5
39
.901
43.3
4 - 95
Correlation
Easy to interpret
4 - 96
Multiple-Regression Analysis
If more than one independent variable is to be
used in the model, linear regression can be
extended to multiple regression to accommodate
several independent variables
a b1x1 b2 x2
y
Computationally, this is quite
complex and generally done on the
computer
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 97
Multiple-Regression Analysis
In the Nodel example, including interest rates in the
model gives the new equation:
4 - 98
4 - 99
Cumulative error
MAD
Actual Forecast
n
4 - 100
Tracking Signal
Figure 4.11
Tracking signal
Upper control limit
0 MADs
Acceptable
range
4 - 101
CUM
ERROR
ABSOLUTE
FORECAST
ERROR
CUM ABS
FORECAST
ERROR
MAD
TRACKING
SIGNAL (CUM
ERROR/MAD)
100
10
10
10
10
10.0
10/10 = 1
95
100
15
15
7.5
15/7.5 = 2
115
100
+15
15
30
10.
0/10 = 0
100
110
10
10
10
40
10.
10/10 = 1
125
110
+15
+5
15
55
11.0
+5/11 = +0.5
140
110
+30
+35
30
85
14.2
+35/14.2 = +2.5
QTR
ACTUAL
DEMAND
FORECAST
DEMAND
90
Forecast errors 85
14.2
At the end of quarter 6, MAD
n
Cumulative error 35
Tracking signal
2.5 MADs
MAD
14.2
2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
4 - 102
Adaptive Smoothing
4 - 103
Focus Forecasting
4 - 104
Unusual events
4 - 105
20%
Figure 4.12
15%
10%
5%
11-12
1-2
12-1
(Lunchtime)
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
7-8
6-7
(Dinnertime)
Hour of day
8-9
9-10
10-11
4 - 106
Figure 4.12
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2
6
8
A.M.
10
12
Hour of day
6
8
P.M.
10
12
4 - 107
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4 - 108