Climate Change:

A Scientists Perspective
Taplin Lecture
Princeton Environmental Institute
April 7, 2011
Ralph J. Cicerone, President
National Academy of Sciences

Science and Climate Change

What is Happening?
Is There an Explanation?
Is There An Alternate Explanation?
What Can Be Predicted?

OUTLINE
Earths Energy Balance
The Greenhouse Effect
Observed Changes
Temperatures of Air and Water
Sea-Level Rise
Ice Losses from Greenland & Antarctica
Future Fossil-Fuel Usage

Over Earths history, climate has changed many times

(global sea level, ice amounts, windiness, rain amounts).
What forces control or influence climate?
How can humans affect our planets climate?

Earth receives visible light from hot Sun

and Earth radiates to space as a
blackbody at infrared wavelengths
239

341

102

68

H2O, CO2, O3

390
327
169

90
16

Calculating the Surface

Temperatures of Planets
Visible

S(1 - e

Infrare
d

for Earth, S = 341 W/m2, = 0.3, so we calculate

Te = - 18 C (or - 32 F)
WRONG !
Greenhouse effect & clouds are needed
for Mars
Te = - 28 C ( 5 C) (large day/night swings) OK !
Greenhouse effect is very small, low pressure
for Venus
WRONG !
Actual Te = 450 C
Greenhouse effect and clouds, high pressure

[Hanel et al. (1972)]

Energy in the Climate System

Averaged over the whole Earth
All Human Energy Usage

0.025 watts/meter2

Extra Heat Trapped by

Greenhouse gases (2007)

2.6 watts/meter 2

Energy Absorbed from Sunlight

239 watts/meter2

www.scrippsco2.ucsd.edu

http://agage.eas.gatech.edu

[Hansen and Sato (2004)]

CO2 Increase is from Human Activities:

Approximate Fractions
85% from fossil fuels
15% from deforestation

12 Jan 2011

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs

12 Jan 2011

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

Time series of yearly ocean heat content (1022J) for the 0700 m layer from this
study (solid) and from Levitus et al. [2005a] (dashed). Each yearly estimate is
plotted at the midpoint of the year. Reference period is 19571990.
Levitus et. al. (2009)

Relative Sea Level (cm)

1882-2005 sea level rise based on Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level
(PSMSL) tide gauge data from 23 sites selected by Douglas (1997)
This figure was prepared by Robert A. Rohde
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Recent_Sea_Level_Rise.png

Source : University of Colorado, Boulder

http://sealevel.colorado.edu

Greenland Mass Loss From Gravity Satellite

Greenland Ice mass loss from GRACE

Trend Apr 2002-Sep 2010:
-24033 Gt/yr (= 0.7 mm/yr sea level rise)
ACCELERATION: -17 8 Gt/yr2

Velicogna (2009 GRL), updated by Velicogna (2011)

Antarctica Ice mass loss from GRACE

Trend Apr 2002-Sep 2010:
-143 Gt/yr (= 0.4 mm/yr sea level rise)
ACCELERATION: -17 Gt/yr2

Velicogna (2009 GRL), updated by Velicogna (2011)

ALL

Global annual mean

surface temperature
anomalies, observed
and calculated.

NATURAL

From Stott et. al. (2006)

Physical Principles
Explain the Warming Since
the late 1970s through the
Greenhouse Effect

12 Jan 2011

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs

Solar irradiance through September 2008.

Reference: Frhlich, C. and J. Lean, Astron.

Astrophys. Rev., 12, pp. 273--320, 2004. http://www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant

Global Fossil-Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1751 to 2007

Includes Cement Manufacturing

All emissions estimates are expressed in million metric tons of carbon

Boden & Marland (2009)

cdiac.ornl.gov

World marketed energy consumption, 1990-2035

(quadrillion Btu)

EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009),

web site www.eia.gov/emeu/international. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).

Shares of world energy consumption in the United States,

China, and India, 1990-2035 (percent of world total)

EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009),

web site www.eia.gov/emeu/international. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).

Coal consumption in selected world regions, 1990-2035

(quadrillion Btu)

EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009),

web site www.eia.gov/emeu/international. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).

Global Carbon Cycle Management

Anthropogenic
Emission
7.2 GtC / y
ex: 2.4-2.8 rise from PI

Dangerous Level 425 440ppm

2ppm/y

How to control
the tap
to avoid risk

Present

380ppm
industrialization
280ppm
Pre-Industrial
Feedback

CO2 in Atmosphere
Absorption
3.1 GtC/ y

Ocean 2.2
Land 0.9

Adapted from Nishioka, NIES, Japan

In future climate:
Global temperatures ?
Sea-level rise ?
Precipitation amounts in each region and season?
Frequencies of extreme events?
How to limit CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning?

Oceans acidifying as well as warming

pH history and business as usual projection

Red line is global annual

average; blue lines show
ocean-to-ocean and
seasonal variation.

Surface ocean pH has already

fallen by 0.1 pH unit. Projected
additional changes are likely to
have large impacts on corals and
other ocean organisms that make
skeletons/ shells from calcium
carbonate.

Article 2, UN Framework Convention on

Climate Change (1992)
The Ultimate objective of this Convention and any related
legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may
adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant
provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a
time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt
naturally to climate change sufficient to allow ecosystems
to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food
production is not threatened and to enable economic
development to proceed in a sustainable in a sustainable
manner.

Who Should Define "Dangerous" ?

scientists?
elected leaders?
____________ ?

Global Methane Release Rates

Gas Production
45 Tg/yr (8.3%)
Coal Mining
35 Tg/yr (6.5%)
Landfills
40 Tg/yr (7.4%)

Enteric Fermentation
80 Tg/yr (14.8%)
Clathrate Decomposition
5? Tg/yr (0.9%)
Termites
40 Tg/yr (7.4%)
Freshwaters
5 Tg/yr (0.9%)

Biomass Burning
55 Tg/yr (10.2%)

Wetlands
115 Tg/yr (21.3%)
Boreal: 20 60 Tg/yr
Rice Paddies
110 Tg/yr (18.5%)
Total = 540 Tg/yr

Oceans
10 Tg/yr (1.9%)
Cicerone & Oremland, 1988

Immediate action with multiple benefits.

Energy efficiency would:
decrease our dependency on foreign oil
improve our national security
decrease our trade deficit
decrease local air pollution
increase our national competitiveness
encourage development of new products for
global markets
decrease household energy costs while also
slowing the increases of CO2 and CH4 !

Evidence

Time history of CO2 increase and that of fossil-fuel usage

Amounts of atmospheric CO2 increase
(0.6 x fossil-fuel emissions)
Contemporary atmospheric amounts exceed those of
previous four glacial cycles
Geographical patterns of atmospheric CO2
Isotopic contents of CO2
Ice-core data show that CH4 and N2O amounts are
also unprecedented

Extreme heat waves in Europe, already 2X more frequent because of

global warming, will be normal in mid-range scenario by 2050
Black lines are
observed
temps,
smoothed &
unsmoothed;
red, blue, &
green lines are
Hadley Centre
simulations w
natural &
anthropogenic
forcing; yellow
is natural only.
Asterisk and
inset show 2003
heat wave that
killed 35,000.
Stott et al., Nature 432: 610-613 (2004)

World electricity generation by fuel, 2007-2035

(trillion kilowatthours)

EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009),

web site www.eia.gov/emeu/international. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).

Renewable electricity generation in China by energy

source, 2007-2035 (billion kilowatthours)

EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009),

web site www.eia.gov/emeu/international. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).

World liquids consumption by region and country group,

2007 and 2035 (million barrels per day)

EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009),

web site www.eia.gov/emeu/international. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).

World liquids consumption by sector, 2007-2035

(million barrels per day)

EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009),

web site www.eia.gov/emeu/international. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).

The challenge of scale

Stabilizing at 500 ppmv CO2-e means global CO2
emissions must be ~7 GtC/yr below BAU in 2050.
Avoiding 1 GtC/yr requires
- energy use in buildings cut 20-25% below BAU in 2050, or
- fuel economy of 2 billion cars ~60 mpg instead of 30, or
- carbon capture & storage for 800 1-GWe coal-burning
power plants, or
- 700 1-GWe nuclear plants replacing coal plants, or
- 1 million 2-MWe(peak) wind turbines replacing coal power
plants or
- 2,000 1-GWe(peak) photovoltaic power plants replacing
coal power plants
Socolow & Pacala, 2004