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Exponential distribution
The exponential and Poisson relationship
Exponential distribution
A continuous r.v. X whose probability density function is given,
for some >0 by
e x ,
f ( x)
0,
x0
x0
E[ X ]
0,
x0
1
2
Variance
V[X ]
Exponential distribution
EXERCISE
The service times at teller windows in a bank were
found to follow an exponential distribution with a
mean of 3.2 minutes. A customer arrives at a
window at 4:00 PM
a. Find the probability that he will still be there at
4:02 PM
Exponential distribution
Relationship with the Poisson distribution
The random variable X that equals the distance
between successive events of a Poisson process
with mean >0 is an exponential random
variable with parameter
Exponential distribution
EXAMPLE: A worn machine tool produces defective parts
Poisson
distribution
N: Number of defective parts in one
Exponential
distribution
X: Time between two defective parts
hour
e.g., n= 2
e.g., 0.7<X<1.2
e.g., n= 3
hr
= 2 defective parts/hour
e n
f ( n) P ( N n)
n!
hr
= 2 defective parts/hour
b
f ( x ) P ( a x b ) e x
a
Exponential distribution
EXAMPLE
The time between calls to a corporate office is
exponentially distributed with a mean of 10 minutes
a. What is the probability that there are more than
three calls in one-half hour?
b. What is the probability that there are no calls
within one-half hour?
c. Determine x such that the probability that there
are no calls within x hours is 0.01
Exponential distribution
Lack of memory property
If T follows an exponential distribution with mean
(), and t and s are positive numbers, then
Exercise
PT t s T s P T t
Exponential distribution
EXAMPLE
The time between calls to a corporate office is
exponentially distributed with a mean of 10 minutes
a) What is the probability that there are no calls
within a two hour interval?
b) If four non-overlapping one-half hour intervals
are selected, what is the probability that none of
these intervals contains any call?
c) Explain the relationship between the results is
parts d and f